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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 684

trannyscience | Posted 4/21/2009 8:16:46 PM | message detail
Goldeneye vs. Majora's Mask who wins
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/21/2009 8:17:12 PM | message detail
Man, I just realized that between bracket votes and the Mario early vote I won't even get to see EB lead for a few seconds. Bah.

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ZFS | Posted 4/21/2009 8:17:32 PM | message detail
I don't doubt there was some favorites going on, but that still doesn't mean it was all favorite voting. Of the games there, CT and EB were the only big ones that people would really want to have on the VC -- cheap, accessible console ports of those games would be big for anybody, especially since most can't play them without emulating. Not buying that being used to show EB's dedicated fanbase, or worse that it has real contest strength,

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/21/2009 8:17:54 PM | message detail
another thing people seem to forget abotu the VC poll

its like what, 6 Square games all sffing eachother? Obviously the 2 nintendo games will look better against them
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/21/2009 8:18:16 PM | message detail
That's a tough one.

I think right now I'll say Goldeneye, but I wouldn't be comfortable with it.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/21/2009 8:18:48 PM | message detail
another thing people seem to forget abotu the VC poll

its like what, 6 Square games all sffing eachother? Obviously the 2 nintendo games will look better against them


And CT won in spite of that.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/21/2009 8:18:48 PM | message detail
if Super Mario RPG can come that close, Majora's Mask's got it.
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trannyscience | Posted 4/21/2009 8:20:27 PM | message detail
I'm not completely sold on Majora's Mask > Super Mario RPG and I'm not sure why anybody else would be either.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/21/2009 8:20:54 PM | message detail

From: trannyscience | #458
I'm not completely sold on Majora's Mask > Super Mario RPG and I'm not sure why anybody else would be either.


because mario folds to link
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/21/2009 8:21:11 PM | message detail
And then again, that poll favors games that hadn't been remade.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/21/2009 8:24:24 PM | message detail
Mario RPG/Majora's Mask is debatable, but I think I'd lean Zelda for obvious reasons.
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/21/2009 8:29:14 PM | message detail
Despite having far less overlap than DK. Let's not forget that point.

I already mentioned my Ness/DK comparison was poor...as was calling Ness out on performing worse than Joanna Dark. Mario > Ness and SMW2:YI > EB are very different situations; Mario/Ness alone doesn't do the situation very much justice.


it's sad when Earthbound's two arguments are that VC poll and The List. Those aren't things you want to be relying on here.

I used those to point out EB's "strengths" while I also called SMW2:YI out on being weak. I then used the only immediate comparison we have asking for our favorite game with the Top 100 List, where EB killed SMW2:YI by forty-five spots. I didn't want to gamble that the Top 100 List means little enough between those two (even if they are arguably the most over/under-rated games on it strength-wise) that simply changing the format would reverse a gap that big.


GoldenEye certainly didn't look as dominant as its VC poll suggested, unless you want to go the Mario RPG > Majora's Mask or Smash Bros. route.

Very true, though we don't know much about GE's opponents (Is RE2 really stronger than RE1? Why did DKC2 fold when DKC held strong? How much SFF was in CT/SMRPG?) and we haven't seen any other games in the N64-VC poll yet. Holding judgment would probably be wise with that poll.


Goldeneye vs. Majora's Mask who wins

In a match pretty much with N64-fans, give me GE. Plus, there's that N64-VC poll...!

Seriously though, GE.


its like what, 6 Square games all sffing eachother? Obviously the 2 nintendo games will look better against them

Five, and it's not really about how well EB did overall in that poll...it's that it killed SMK and MMX, both of which impressed so far, and EB did it despite five Square RPGs in the poll. It doesn't hurt that EB got ~22% in the poll, but that alone is almost useless to me.


And then again, that poll favors games that hadn't been remade.

Didn't help SMK a single bit.
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/21/2009 8:33:03 PM | message detail
Considering that EB ought to be hard pressed getting 22% on Chrono Trigger alone according to the 2004 stats, 22% is extremely impressive, 5-way LFF or not.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/21/2009 8:33:23 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #431
BT had the right idea with Axel except he forgot one thing, it's a casual heavy game that doesn't care about its characters. I compared Axel to the Madden of the contest.


And now I realize that. I figured Axel was prominent enough that he would stand out. Now I realize Guitar Hero fans wouldn't come to this site to vote their character. It was still a way more logical upset than this one.

...and I for one bet against franchise-voting being a factor like 2004 (probably some others, too), so I took CT > EB. We've now seen that you don't want to bet against big franchise-games very often and Doom lost a match it should have won with some room to spare (darn u lff inconsistencies), so SMW2:YI definitely deserves to be the favorite. However, before the contest? Well, I'll just say it's nice to see you be especially aggressive about how wrong the prediction is now compared to before the lock-down.

Franchise voting will die down now that we're getting into newer games. You have to realize that with the userbase getting younger relative to these old games, only the truly timeless games will hold up nowadays, while in 2004 we had room for niche classics to impress with lower, more "hardcore" votes.

And I would have argued how wrong this upset is before the bracket lockdown but noone even mentioned it until a week into the contest.

As for the Virtual Console polls that are constantly brought up, I will repeat:

Those polls are dominated by games that haven't been remade out the ying-yang. Which is why CT and Earthbound did so good. Which is why Goldeneye dominated. You could have a VC poll with Mario 3, Earthbound, Final Fantasy Mystic Quest and Duck Hunt and Mario 3 will probably come in last due to how oversaturated it is.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/21/2009 8:34:35 PM | message detail
And I would take Majora's Mask in a heartbeat. People are criminally underestimating it, and criminally Magus-style overestimating Goldeneye. It would not surprise me in the least to see MK64 advance there next round.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/21/2009 8:36:37 PM | message detail
I used those to point out EB's "strengths" while I also called SMW2:YI out on being weak. I then used the only immediate comparison we have asking for our favorite game with the Top 100 List, where EB killed SMW2:YI by forty-five spots. I didn't want to gamble that the Top 100 List means little enough between those two (even if they are arguably the most over/under-rated games on it strength-wise) that simply changing the format would reverse a gap that big.

Yes, but The List favors a game like Earthbound, honestly. Big Mario fans are less likely to list Yoshi's Island at all because of how many other games they'd list first.
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MetricTrout | Posted 4/21/2009 8:37:03 PM | message detail
So much discussion on Earthbound. The real question tomorrow is how badly Chrono Trigger will bomb.
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/21/2009 8:37:35 PM | message detail
The average GameFAQser is too stupid to actually read the poll question! They just look at the options and vote for the option they like best, question be damned!

This is why we'd see FF7 > OoT in the finals of a Worst. Game. Ever. contest, right?
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/21/2009 8:37:38 PM | message detail
Those polls are dominated by games that haven't been remade out the ying-yang. Which is why CT and Earthbound did so good. Which is why Goldeneye dominated.

However, that didn't help Super Mario Kart one bit.
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greatone10 | Posted 4/21/2009 8:38:49 PM | message detail

From: Fayt_Esteed | Posted: 4/21/2009 8:37:38 PM | #469
However, that didn't help Super Mario Kart one bit.


And who would honestly care about a Mario Kart remake/port?
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Not even 10%? What is wrong with you people? At least SMRPG and Goldeneye moved on.
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 4/21/2009 8:38:51 PM | message detail
remade

Y halo thar Mario Kart 64/DD/Wii
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/21/2009 8:39:45 PM | message detail
Super Mario Kart is ancient, and the new games are such big improvements that it doesn't matter. There's no reason to play SMK, just like there's no reason to play Smash Brothers for example.
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greatone10 | Posted 4/21/2009 8:40:06 PM | message detail

From: WarThaNemesis2 | Posted: 4/21/2009 8:38:51 PM | #471
remade

Y halo thar Mario Kart 64/DD/Wii


I wouldn't exactly call those remakes, but the fact that the games are so similar is exactly why the demand for Mario Kart ports isn't very high.
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Not even 10%? What is wrong with you people? At least SMRPG and Goldeneye moved on.
HaRRicH | Posted 4/21/2009 8:40:49 PM | message detail
Franchise voting will die down now that we're getting into newer games. You have to realize that with the userbase getting younger relative to these old games, only the truly timeless games will hold up nowadays, while in 2004 we had room for niche classics to impress with lower, more "hardcore" votes.

Yeah, we've established that now. I also tried to bet on that with the earlier games when LFF wasn't in the way, but figured that factor would be dying out around this part of the bracket -- I mean, two of the top games of the site come from this time-period, so people should be familiar with the era.


I would have argued how wrong this upset is before the bracket lockdown but noone even mentioned it until a week into the contest.

It did get swept under the rug a bit, though I know I made it a point several times to talk about it.
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Prototype
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/21/2009 8:42:58 PM | message detail
Well, I know for a fact I called it out when Bacon was asking for re-submissions because I said DKC2 should have been put in Lufia's spot to get rid of a horrendous piece of turbofodder and make the most predictable match in the bracket interesting.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/21/2009 8:44:29 PM | message detail
Who's to say that DKC2 wouldn't have done badly there?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/21/2009 8:45:16 PM | message detail
It may have, but it certainly would've done better than what it did. I still wouldn't have taken it to advance over Yoshi's Island.
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Solid_Mike86 | Posted 4/21/2009 8:46:37 PM | message detail
Im still saying EB comes in 2nd behind CT.
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/21/2009 8:47:37 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/21/2009 8:48:35 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #477
It may have, but it certainly would've done better than what it did. I still wouldn't have taken it to advance over Yoshi's Island.


With what we've seen, yeah, but pre-contest it would have been one of the most debated matches. I'm still pissed noone supported that topic I made. Instead of giving DKC2 a chance to round 2, and give us an interesting match where no interesting match was before, we get this garbage. Hell, if DKC2 was here, Earthbound would have then had a slightly remote chance of advancing.
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/21/2009 8:49:57 PM | message detail
If Lufia 2 were replaced by DKC2, then maybe I could see Earthbound advancing. Still would pick YI as the favorite, but who knows.

Plus we know now DKC2 is weak, but if you think about it, we won't know DKC2 sucks until the actual match. We'll have seen DKC impress, though, so the match would definitely at least seem like there's a lot of potential for upsets.
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/21/2009 8:51:39 PM | message detail
Super Mario Kart is ancient, and the new games are such big improvements that it doesn't matter. There's no reason to play SMK, just like there's no reason to play Smash Brothers for example.

Oh, sequels count? Because LoZ:WW, LoZ:TP, LoZ:PH, and LoZ:MC came out after LoZ:MM...did those hurt LoZ:MM? Probably not. Because FF2-FF12 came out after FF1...did those hurt FF? Certainly not. Because MGS had a few games since the NES days...did those hurt MG? Please.

Also, even with better sequels, you shouldn't discount that people will still like the original games -- look back at SM/SMK for proof. If Nintendo-fans vote for SMK there, it's weird that they don't vote for it in the SNES-VC poll anywhere close to EB.
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/21/2009 8:54:41 PM | message detail
So how long does Earthbound lead over SMW2?
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/21/2009 8:54:43 PM | message detail
The Zelda sequels and the FF sequels are different games though. You play through the quests and enjoy the stories. Do you think there's as high a demand for the original Gran Turismo as there is for the next one?

How about Madden '02?
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 4/21/2009 8:55:00 PM | message detail
In the VC polls, Final Fantasy lost to Battletoads.

So yes, FF2-12 did seem to hurt the original quite a bit.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/21/2009 8:55:05 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #483
So how long does Earthbound lead over SMW2?


3 seconds. It won't be leading very long.
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/21/2009 8:55:20 PM | message detail
Majora's Mask is its own adventure that is radically different from other games in its series, before and after, while Super Mario Kart's sequels have the same gameplay with only added features and tracks, with some sequels even including various tracks from the original. Two completely different beasts. People can have played and enjoyed SMK, but that doesn't mean they'd want to play it again when there's more feature-rich versions available. It's much harder to replicate the Majora's Mask experience in Wind Waker and so on.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/21/2009 8:55:50 PM | message detail

From: WarThaNemesis2 | #485
In the VC polls, Final Fantasy lost to Battletoads.

So yes, FF2-12 did seem to hurt the original quite a bit.


No, having a remake released on every system hurt the original quite a bit.
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 4/21/2009 8:56:58 PM | message detail
Shh....HaRR is supposed to point it out.
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/21/2009 8:57:42 PM | message detail
3 seconds. It won't be leading very long.

Trust me the board vote is going to CT and Earthbound, it should lead for at least a minute or two.
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/21/2009 8:58:05 PM | message detail
Time for the best game ever to dominate!!!
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 4/21/2009 8:58:41 PM | message detail
I'm going to laugh if Trigger looks more like Magus than Crono.
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/21/2009 8:58:44 PM | message detail
Let's finish this topic off before the match starts.
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/21/2009 8:58:45 PM | message detail
Newer =/= better in strength though, and it's ignorant to say jumps like SMK to MK64 or MK:DD to MKW or any combo of Mario Kart games is like Madden '0_ to Madden '0_. There are still big differences people recognize, and people still play MK-games here in large numbers.
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trannyscience | Posted 4/21/2009 8:58:56 PM | message detail
I'm expecting a CT bomb here. it won't be as obvious early on though because lol CT board vote.

though it's also an overwhelming favourite and this board is stupid about Earthbound so eh, maybe it won't dominate early
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/21/2009 8:59:02 PM | message detail
Lufia 2 > Earthbound gogogo
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/21/2009 8:59:05 PM | message detail
Oh, sequels count? Because LoZ:WW, LoZ:TP, LoZ:PH, and LoZ:MC came out after LoZ:MM...did those hurt LoZ:MM? Probably not. Because FF2-FF12 came out after FF1...did those hurt FF? Certainly not. Because MGS had a few games since the NES days...did those hurt MG? Please.

Big difference in the sequels to FF, MGS, and Zelda than the difference in Mario Kart sequels, you know. Just thought I'd point that out.
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Childproof | Posted 4/21/2009 8:59:07 PM | message detail
Earthbound should be around 20% at the freeze, then drop like rock à la Kirby Super Star
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ZFS | Posted 4/21/2009 8:59:13 PM | message detail
time for an earthbound bomb

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Solid_Mike86 | Posted 4/21/2009 8:59:20 PM | message detail
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