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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 684

M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/20/2009 5:48:21 PM | message detail
Slippy: NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it.

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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http://l33trappacat.smackjeeves.com/
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/20/2009 8:42:57 PM | message detail
< 20 minutes for what will probably be another underwhelming match!
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http://l33trappacat.smackjeeves.com/
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/20/2009 8:43:24 PM | message detail
Here's hoping Mario 64 drops a bomb!
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
ZFS | Posted 4/20/2009 8:43:38 PM | message detail
post 499 better choice

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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/20/2009 8:44:59 PM | message detail
Post 500 BEST choice

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
PegasusLover123 | Posted 4/20/2009 8:47:11 PM | message detail
I don't know about you guys, but i don't think Kirby Superstar is gonna do that lousy.

Hell, among all the kirby games i've played, Superstar was the most memorable (Was popular enough to warrant a DS Remake with new additions).

The real question is how well Castlevania and Resident Evil perform against Mario and Kirby.

I never played any Castlevania games so i wouldn't know its strength, but i doubt that Resident Evil will outperform Mario 64 or KSS.
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"If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh." -Magus
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/20/2009 8:47:28 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #003
Here's hoping Mario 64 drops a bomb!


not like its getting past round 2 regardless!
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http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png
Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
ZFS | Posted 4/20/2009 8:49:08 PM | message detail
FFVII stayin' above 55% good news. Brought in a lot of votes, too.

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paulg235 | Posted 4/20/2009 8:49:36 PM | message detail
Come on Kirby Super Star, show us some of that rSSF to take 2nd.
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The Gamer In Me
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=158
charmander6000 | Posted 4/20/2009 8:49:57 PM | message detail
not like its getting past round 2 regardless!

If SotN stays close SMW2 may kill it off.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > MK64 Points: 37/52
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/20/2009 8:50:30 PM | message detail
Round 1 - Division 4: Match 3

Castlevania: Symphony of the Night


All part of the plan

Kirby Super Star

How can you possibly vote against this?

Resident Evil

more like resident crap mirite?

Mario 64

The father of 3-D platforming

Analysis:

This should be a pretty straightforward match. Mario 64 has no trouble taking first here and Castlevania is the heavy favourite to grab second. There's been some rumblings of a Resident Evil upset, but I'm not feeling it. SotN simply has more going for it, a well recieved XLBA port, Alucard still being stronger than any of the non-Leon Resident Evil characters and Resident Evil 2's complete bomb dropping.

People seem to think that because Resident Evil 4 and 5 are popular, that this strength should retroactively apply itself to the terrible PS1 games, and that's simply not the case. Same logic is being used for taking MGS1-3 far, but you have to remember what Snake was like before Smash Bros.

Personally, I feel that Kirby has more chance of beating RE than RE has of beating Symphony.

TuRtLe's Prediction: Mario 64 45%, Symphony 25%, Resident Evil 18%, Kirby 12%
TuRtLe's Bracket: Mario 64 > SotN
TuRtLe's Vote: Kirby!
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/20/2009 8:51:01 PM | message detail
FFVII always brings in the votes!
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
Solid_Mike86 | Posted 4/20/2009 8:51:35 PM | message detail
Am I the only one who thinks EB has a chance at 2nd in it's match?
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***UNC TARHEELS 2008-2009 NCAA CHAMPIONS***
AKA Super Luigi. Go Hurricanes! CAR - 1 NJ - 1
ZFS | Posted 4/20/2009 8:52:18 PM | message detail
Time to blame Battletoads for this not being the highest voted match so far !

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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/20/2009 8:52:43 PM | message detail
No, you're not.

Well, at least you haven't been in the past. The number of people who still think that is dwindling.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
HaRRicH | Posted 4/20/2009 8:52:50 PM | message detail
FF7 - 95%
MK64 - 55%
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
Lopen | Posted 4/20/2009 8:53:22 PM | message detail
Who wants some Symphony > SM64

Boring match I think not
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So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/20/2009 8:53:34 PM | message detail

From: Solid_Mike86 | #013
Am I the only one who thinks EB has a chance at 2nd in it's match?


No, you're just as wrong as the other 10 people thinking that ridiculous upset.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/20/2009 8:54:38 PM | message detail
SMK was the favorite to advance over Sonic 3, for cryin' out loud. I don't know why MK64 wouldn't be a big favorite for second.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/20/2009 8:54:55 PM | message detail
Tag

And as for how many R1 matches in 2008 that had a character score sub-10%:

Zack > Wario
Link > Zidane
Luigi > Liquid Snake
MMX > Mudkip
Samus > Nightmare
Vince > Falco
Crono > Ammy
Snake > Vivi
Sora > Fox
Squall > Yoshi
Cloud > Midna
Big Boss > Kirby
Chief > Raiden

That's a good portion of R1 matches with a character that failed to get 10% of the vote.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
HaRRicH | Posted 4/20/2009 8:57:11 PM | message detail
So the last contest had ten matches like that while we've already had thirteen? Damn.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
transience | Posted 4/20/2009 8:57:38 PM | message detail
time for a Mario bomb
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xyzzy
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/20/2009 8:58:30 PM | message detail
I've got Wesker's Mercenaries theme blasting. Time for RE to fall flat on its face again yeaaaaaaaaaaah
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/20/2009 8:58:42 PM | message detail
Thanks for looking that up.

Interesting stuff.
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http://l33trappacat.smackjeeves.com/
RockMFR 5 | Posted 4/20/2009 8:58:47 PM | message detail
It's interesting how high the ownership stats are for the next match when adding in the re-releases for each game. Each game's major re-release has over 500 owners. Though, with the odd exception of Kirby Super Star Ultra, there have huge differences between the number of people who rated each game and the number of people who say they own it. Has anyone else been using these stats to predict the results?
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Be a good little washing machine, now... o_0
The Ohio State University: We are so much better than m*ch!g@n.
Starman0 | Posted 4/20/2009 8:59:11 PM | message detail
BLASTING RESIDENT EVIL MUSIC

HERE WE GO BABY RE FOR 2ND PLACE
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XBL GT : Chiodos109
Currently Playing: WoW, Braid (PC), Myst (PC)
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/20/2009 8:59:11 PM | message detail
Time for all the games to perform completely as expected!
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http://l33trappacat.smackjeeves.com/
Lopen | Posted 4/20/2009 8:59:21 PM | message detail
http://www.videogamesblogger.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/04/kirby-cooks-mario.jpg

Never forget.
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So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/20/2009 8:59:25 PM | message detail
People have looked them up, but I don't think people make much of them.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
Childproof | Posted 4/20/2009 8:59:46 PM | message detail
time for KSS to be even weaker than expected
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Is GrapefruitKing
Today's prediction: Mario 64 44.26% - Alucard's Plan 27.36% - RE 19.96% - Kirby 8.42% Status:
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/20/2009 9:00:16 PM | message detail
Castlevania: Symphony 25%

2
Kirby Super Star 50%

4
Resident Evil 12.5%

1
Super Mario 64 12.5%

1
TOTAL VOTES 8

BRAAAAAAAAAAAAAAINS
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Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
transience | Posted 4/20/2009 9:00:22 PM | message detail
whoa.
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com//chewing.jpg
Gaddswell | Posted 4/20/2009 9:00:26 PM | message detail
Castlevania: Symphony 21.05% 16
Kirby Super Star 22.37% 17
Resident Evil 19.74% 15
Super Mario 64 36.84% 28
TOTAL VOTES 76

KIRBY!
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Hail FastFalcon, our new guru overlord!
Master Moltar | Posted 4/20/2009 9:00:27 PM | message detail
kirby board vote aww yeah
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Moltar Status: you can't hide forever
Match 15 - Bracket: SM64 > SotN - Vote: SM64 (42/56)
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/20/2009 9:00:28 PM | message detail
gotta love the kirby board vote
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/20/2009 9:00:41 PM | message detail
what the hell is Castlevania: Symphony

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/20/2009 9:00:57 PM | message detail
Man ertyu is right about you guys.
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Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
RockMFR 5 | Posted 4/20/2009 9:00:58 PM | message detail
Second place 3-way yes!
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Be a good little washing machine, now... o_0
The Ohio State University: We are so much better than m*ch!g@n.
transience | Posted 4/20/2009 9:01:01 PM | message detail
ha, so much for that

nice job, Mario 64.
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xyzzy
http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/7033/trannyanalysis.png
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/20/2009 9:01:05 PM | message detail
It's over.
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ZFS | Posted 4/20/2009 9:01:15 PM | message detail
Buncha Kirby freaks on this board !

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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/20/2009 9:01:16 PM | message detail
Castlevania: Symphony 17.39%

4
Kirby Super Star 39.13%

9
Resident Evil 21.74%

5
Super Mario 64 21.74%

5
TOTAL VOTES 23

Aw yeah, KSS board vote
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paulg235 | Posted 4/20/2009 9:01:18 PM | message detail
Aw yeah go Kirby!
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The Gamer In Me
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=158
charmander6000 | Posted 4/20/2009 9:01:36 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3459&region=ASI

Suikoden in second.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SM64 > Castlevania: SotN Points: 41/56
Master Moltar | Posted 4/20/2009 9:01:54 PM | message detail
man if I hadn't seen RE2's rise two days ago I'd be worried like crazy for RE.
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Moltar Status: you can't hide forever
Match 15 - Bracket: SM64 > SotN - Vote: SM64 (42/56)
transience | Posted 4/20/2009 9:02:01 PM | message detail
Kirby's pretty much locked into fourth here unless RE bombs more.

lol old Resident Evil
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com//chewing.jpg
MetricTrout | Posted 4/20/2009 9:02:22 PM | message detail
Kirby!
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Childproof | Posted 4/20/2009 9:02:23 PM | message detail
KSS should turn into fall-like-a-rock Kieby any minute, now
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Is GrapefruitKing
Today's prediction: Mario 64 44.26% - Alucard's Plan 27.36% - RE 19.96% - Kirby 8.42% Status:
Lopen | Posted 4/20/2009 9:02:41 PM | message detail
Castlevania: Symphony

Costing it a ton of votes imhhho
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So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.
greatone10 | Posted 4/20/2009 9:02:46 PM | message detail
holy board vote Castlevania!
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Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09.
Not even 10%? What is wrong with you people? At least SMRPG and Goldeneye moved on.