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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 683

Internet_Warbot | Posted 4/20/2009 2:49:46 PM | message detail

From: HaRRicH | #345
Haha, if only Oregon Trail and Tecmo Super Bowl were facing CT/EB...it'd be fun to see how few votes we'd get in the dead-zone!


The problem with Oregon Trail and Tecmo Super Bowl is that nobody has even heard of them here, Earthbound and Chrono Trigger are at least recognizable.
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Internet_Warbot | Posted 4/20/2009 2:53:17 PM | message detail
Mario Kart has definitely been the star of the contest so far, Sonic gets excused for his 4-way bizarreness but Super Metroid had no such excuse and SMK went dead even with it. And today MK64 is putting up a similar figure on FFVII that MGS did while getting leeched by Star Fox. It's looking like a pretty powerful series in this, perhaps in the bracket of Metroid, Sonic and Mega Man.
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Hey you, get offa my cloud! - Mario
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/20/2009 2:55:33 PM | message detail
Mario Kart probably underperformed in the series contest due to respect, or having a lot more casual votes. SSB has casual votes as well, but a lot of the fanbase are hardcore period.

Choosing between franchises is a broad concept for many voters; but individual games is more exact which is why they may overperform in comparison to the series.


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BGE2 - Today: FFVII > MK64 - Points: 38/52 Vote: MK64
Internet_Warbot | Posted 4/20/2009 2:57:14 PM | message detail
I definitely follow that, I was a FF7 voter today but switch MK64 with SMK and you could be sure I'd be switching votes. =)
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Hey you, get offa my cloud! - Mario
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/20/2009 3:11:04 PM | message detail
Halo
Mario Kart 64
Metal Gear Solid 3
Diablo 2

MK64 > D2 > MGS3 > Halo is my first instinct
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/20/2009 3:13:33 PM | message detail
I hope the people saying Diablo 2 beats MGS3/Halo also have WoW advancing in its match, because WoW >>> Diablo 2
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/20/2009 3:19:50 PM | message detail

From: MyWorldIsCrono | #356
because WoW >>> Diablo 2


Based on.. ?
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BGE2 - Today: FFVII > MK64 - Points: 38/52 Vote: MK64
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/20/2009 3:21:05 PM | message detail

From: MarioSuperstar | #357
Based on.. ?


WoW has 5 times the amount of players, is regarded higher by blizzard fans, the series contest, and higher rallying power.

Starcraft/WoW is in debate, but I think most people in the know of Blizzard games can agree Diablo 2 would be last of the big 3.
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
XxSoulxX | Posted 4/20/2009 3:21:13 PM | message detail
The fact that he's a WoW fanboy.
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/20/2009 3:22:41 PM | message detail
I find that most Mario Kart games have a good deal of overlap among fans. Sure everyone has their favourite, but each game is usually well liked. While something like Mega Man or Final Fantasy have their fair share of unique fans and haters.
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BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > MK64 Points: 37/52
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/20/2009 3:24:04 PM | message detail
Not to mention WoW got 39th on "The List" back when it was an infant. The time the list was made, WoW had about 2 million subscribers.
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/20/2009 3:25:32 PM | message detail
You can't really look at the series contest because it was "Warcraft"; meaning, not all of it was World of Warcraft.
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BGE2 - Today: FFVII > MK64 - Points: 38/52 Vote: MK64
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/20/2009 3:26:17 PM | message detail

From: MarioSuperstar | #362
You can't really look at the series contest because it was "Warcraft"; meaning, not all of it was World of Warcraft.


Warcraft was a distant third of the big 3 Blizzard series prior to WoW. All of Warcrafts strength essentially IS WoW.
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
Sonic_Factor | Posted 4/20/2009 3:26:43 PM | message detail
looks like ff7 will go below 55 for a bit perhaps.. No biggie, ASV has like an hour left.. then back up for ff7
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/20/2009 3:27:40 PM | message detail
Final Fantasy VIII
SoulCalibur
Starcraft
Xenogears

Chrono Cross
Final Fantasy IX
Half-Life
Zelda: Ocarina of Time

Final Fantasy XII
Half-Life 2
Phoenix Wright
Zelda: Twilight Princess

Call of Duty 4
Pokemon Diamond/Pearl
Super Mario Galaxy
Team Fortress 2

Based on what we've seen up until now, how would you say each match goes?

FF8>Starcraft
OoT>FFIX
TP>HL2 (hesitantly)
SMG>CoD4

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Mumei | Posted 4/20/2009 3:28:08 PM | message detail
WoW has 5 times the amount of players, is regarded higher by blizzard fans, the series contest, and higher rallying power.

Starcraft/WoW is in debate, but I think most people in the know of Blizzard games can agree Diablo 2 would be last of the big 3.


I don't think WoW has 5 times as many players.

Blizzard's most recent numbers have the Diablo series at ~18.5 million. Even if you split it in half and half, that's still ~9.25 million per game and its expansion, and I'd bet on Diablo II having at least slightly more sales than the original Diablo.

If WoW has a sales advantage, it is a relatively small one.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/20/2009 3:28:26 PM | message detail
FF8 > Starcraft
OoT > FF9
TP > HL2
SMG > Pokemon D/P
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/20/2009 3:28:59 PM | message detail

From: Mumei | #366
WoW has 5 times the amount of players, is regarded higher by blizzard fans, the series contest, and higher rallying power.

Starcraft/WoW is in debate, but I think most people in the know of Blizzard games can agree Diablo 2 would be last of the big 3.


I don't think WoW has 5 times as many players.

Blizzard's most recent numbers have the Diablo series at ~18.5 million. Even if you split it in half and half, that's still ~9.25 million per game and its expansion, and I'd bet on Diablo II having at least slightly more sales than the original Diablo.

If WoW has a sales advantage, it is a relatively small one.


Well, I meant active players. Diablo 2s current active players is no higher then 2-2.5 million.
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
XxSoulxX | Posted 4/20/2009 3:29:42 PM | message detail

Blizzard's most recent numbers have the Diablo series at ~18.5 million. Even if you split it in half and half, that's still ~9.25 million per game and its expansion, and I'd bet on Diablo II having at least slightly more sales than the original Diablo.


Diablo 2 outsold the first one by a lot.
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Mumei | Posted 4/20/2009 3:30:08 PM | message detail
Well, I meant active players. Diablo 2s current active players is no higher then 2-2.5 million.

Ah.

Even then, I don't think that number is particularly significant.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/20/2009 3:32:14 PM | message detail

From: Mumei | #370
Well, I meant active players. Diablo 2s current active players is no higher then 2-2.5 million.

Ah.

Even then, I don't think that number is particularly significant.


When it comes to rallying, it is. Active players are much more likely to rally then non active players.
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
Mumei | Posted 4/20/2009 3:33:23 PM | message detail
Diablo 2 outsold the first one by a lot.

Do you have exact numbers? The only numbers I can find are those for the first year or two of sale (for the individual games), unfortunately, while Blizzard just combines the two when talking about the franchise's sales.

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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/20/2009 3:33:58 PM | message detail

From: MyWorldIsCrono | #363
Warcraft was a distant third of the big 3 Blizzard series prior to WoW. All of Warcrafts strength essentially IS WoW.


A distant third.. where? If it's not on GameFAQs, this doesn't prove anything.

Sales are irrelevant as well.

I just take a look at polls and series; Diablo is about as big as Warcraft in 2006's series contest, and it's only running on one game. Warcraft was running on RTS and WoW which still has a low base.

Rallying can come from both sides, but at least Diablo II fans would have the time to!
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BGE2 - Today: FFVII > MK64 - Points: 38/52 Vote: MK64
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/20/2009 3:34:44 PM | message detail
I know Diablo 2 sold over 10 million. But in comparison, if the stats of non active subscriptions are right for WoW, it has sold about 17-18 million (It has 11.5 million now, but stats say that 40% of people who have bought wow no longer have an active subscription)
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
Mumei | Posted 4/20/2009 3:35:57 PM | message detail
When it comes to rallying, it is. Active players are much more likely to rally then non active players.

... Right - I just don't see rallying as being a very significant part of StarCraft or Diablo II's potential strength; lobbying on Battle.net (e.g. talking in the big Channels) is not likely to garner very many votes, I don't think.

WoW probably has more upside simply due to the community aspect of it, if some of the larger Guilds or WoW-related websites got interested in the contest, I suppose, but I'm not expecting it.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/20/2009 3:36:18 PM | message detail

From: MarioSuperstar | #373
A distant third.. where? If it's not on GameFAQs, this doesn't prove anything.

Sales are irrelevant as well.

I just take a look at polls and series; Diablo is about as big as Warcraft in 2006's series contest, and it's only running on one game. Warcraft was running on RTS and WoW which still has a low base.

Rallying can come from both sides, but at least Diablo II fans would have the time to!


In the blizzard fanbase, it was all about starcraft and diablo until WoW came out. WC3 was seen as a poor mans Starcraft that didn't get alot of respect among the fans. Not to mention WC3 only sold about 2 million compared to over 10 million for both D2 and Starcraft.
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/20/2009 3:37:41 PM | message detail

From: Mumei | #375
When it comes to rallying, it is. Active players are much more likely to rally then non active players.

... Right - I just don't see rallying as being a very significant part of StarCraft or Diablo II's potential strength; lobbying on Battle.net (e.g. talking in the big Channels) is not likely to garner very many votes, I don't think.

WoW probably has more upside simply due to the community aspect of it, if some of the larger Guilds or WoW-related websites got interested in the contest, I suppose, but I'm not expecting it.


Well, I've already started making an alt on every server to post about voting for it on trade channel. Not to mention places like WoW Insider are likely going to link to it (They link to most contests WoW is up for), and other sites may as well. I was able to get at least 1000 votes for Hogger just by bumping a topic on MMO Champion, so I don't see 10k or more out of the question if the WoW fanbase really tries to rally.
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
Mumei | Posted 4/20/2009 3:41:53 PM | message detail
In the blizzard fanbase, it was all about starcraft and diablo until WoW came out. WC3 was seen as a poor mans Starcraft that didn't get alot of respect among the fans. Not to mention WC3 only sold about 2 million compared to over 10 million for both D2 and Starcraft.

Eh?

In 2006, Vivendi said that the WarCraft series, separate from World of WarCraft, was at 19 million - and WarCraft III alone (not The Frozen Throne) shipped with 5 million copies.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/20/2009 3:45:04 PM | message detail

From: Mumei | #378
In the blizzard fanbase, it was all about starcraft and diablo until WoW came out. WC3 was seen as a poor mans Starcraft that didn't get alot of respect among the fans. Not to mention WC3 only sold about 2 million compared to over 10 million for both D2 and Starcraft.

Eh?

In 2006, Vivendi said that the WarCraft series, separate from World of WarCraft, was at 19 million - and WarCraft III alone (not The Frozen Throne) shipped with 5 million copies.


Seriously? Last I saw it was at 2 million and was a bust in general compared to the other big series from Blizzard. Maybe I had a bad source since checking Wiki, they say it sold 4.5 million... still, its not at the level of the bigger series though
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
Mumei | Posted 4/20/2009 3:47:53 PM | message detail
Seriously? Last I saw it was at 2 million and was a bust in general compared to the other big series from Blizzard. Maybe I had a bad source since checking Wiki, they say it sold 4.5 million... still, its not at the level of the bigger series though

Seriously.

StarCraft and StarCraft: Brood War are at 11 million; Diablo series is at 18.5 million (as of the announcement of Diablo III), WarCraft is at 19 million (as of 2006), and World of WarCraft... I can't find "sales" numbers, just subscriber numbers, but it's around the level as Diablo or WarCraft [RTS] series.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/20/2009 3:52:30 PM | message detail
But with the series contest, Warcraft would still beat Diablo 60-40%, and this is back when WoW had only 1/3rd of its current subscribers. I'd say now it would beat Diablo at least 65%, and thats a big enough difference to show WoW > Diablo 2.

My reasoning at least.
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
Mumei | Posted 4/20/2009 3:57:03 PM | message detail
But with the series contest, Warcraft would still beat Diablo 60-40%, and this is back when WoW had only 1/3rd of its current subscribers. I'd say now it would beat Diablo at least 65%, and thats a big enough difference to show WoW > Diablo 2.

My reasoning at least.


What are you basing that on?

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red sox 777 | Posted 4/20/2009 3:57:17 PM | message detail
But with the series contest, Warcraft would still beat Diablo 60-40%, and this is back when WoW had only 1/3rd of its current subscribers. I'd say now it would beat Diablo at least 65%, and thats a big enough difference to show WoW > Diablo 2.

It usually isn't true, but I think this is a case where "lol x-stats" is applicable.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/20/2009 3:57:23 PM | message detail
I put faith in Diablo 2 to do a little shake up but honestly, it hasn't done anything impressive. Diablo in the character contest is about all its done, and it still lost to Arthas.
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/20/2009 3:58:33 PM | message detail
Mario Kart probably underperformed in the series contest due to respect, or having a lot more casual votes. SSB has casual votes as well, but a lot of the fanbase are hardcore period.

SSB was also very hot from E3. It got 35% against SMB and Solid Snake made it to Day Four of the Battle Royale for a reason. Though SSB > MK should be a fact until further notice, I wonder how far apart they really are. MK's series is a generation older, has several more games on both consoles and handhelds, and has its biggest hit on the Virtual Console as opposed to SSB not having anything on it.

SSBM > MK64 (and probably SSBB, too), but I;d like to see them compete against each other now that SSBB is out and neither of them are waiting on new games. In fact, I'd like to see a new Nintendo-poll about the series; this is the most recent one we have, which was six months before the Gamecube even came out:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=525

Replace F-Zero with MK, SF with SSB, DK with DKC, and let's see what happens when Pokemon has a resurgence, Metroid gets the MP-games, Mario gets Galaxy (...and Sunshine), LoZ gets Wind Waker and Twilight Princess, and Fire Emblem gets some American releases after its introduction in SSBM. I'd like to see how it changes, at least...and maybe LoZ will finally drop below 50%!
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Mumei | Posted 4/20/2009 3:59:49 PM | message detail
I put faith in Diablo 2 to do a little shake up but honestly, it hasn't done anything impressive. Diablo in the character contest is about all its done, and it still lost to Arthas.

And StarCraft produced Kerrigan. <_<

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/20/2009 4:01:31 PM | message detail

From: Mumei | #386
I put faith in Diablo 2 to do a little shake up but honestly, it hasn't done anything impressive. Diablo in the character contest is about all its done, and it still lost to Arthas.

And StarCraft produced Kerrigan. <_<


That arguement does nothing but pump up what WoW can do since Arthas > Kerrigan in strength
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
SonicRaptor | Posted 4/20/2009 4:02:25 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Mumei | Posted 4/20/2009 4:03:54 PM | message detail
That arguement does nothing but pump up what WoW can do since Arthas > Kerrigan in strength

... The argument was mostly that Blizzard games and characters seem to have very incongruous strengths in these contests, not that they will scale so that Arthas : World of WarCraft :: Kerrigan : StarCraft or something.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/20/2009 4:05:04 PM | message detail

From: Mumei | #389
That arguement does nothing but pump up what WoW can do since Arthas > Kerrigan in strength

... The argument was mostly that Blizzard games and characters seem to have very incongruous strengths in these contests, not that they will scale so that Arthas : World of WarCraft :: Kerrigan : StarCraft or something.


But if Kerrigan is able to be so weak with a strong game, why not Arthas when neither game is character driven?
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/20/2009 4:06:53 PM | message detail
Surprisingly, the only Blizzard game I have making an early exit is Starcraft. I don't feel very good about it now, either. Half-Life needs to be there, and my confidence in that isn't as high after these first two weeks. Chrono Cross needs to keep from completely dying, and Ocarina needs to murder the poll.

I still think there's a plausible chance, though, especially since we've seen Half-Life before and it wasn't bad.
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Mumei | Posted 4/20/2009 4:10:17 PM | message detail
But if Kerrigan is able to be so weak with a strong game, why not Arthas when neither game is character driven?

I don't doubt that Arthas is much weaker than his games, really; I'm just unconvinced that Arthas is as weak relative to his games as Kerrigan is relative to hers.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/20/2009 4:10:51 PM | message detail
Half Life games should be the strongest non Goldeneye FPS.
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/20/2009 4:11:14 PM | message detail

From: The n00b Avenger | #384
I put faith in Diablo 2 to do a little shake up but honestly, it hasn't done anything impressive. Diablo in the character contest is about all its done, and it still lost to Arthas.


There's a poll somewhere that has Diablo beating the Elder Scrolls by a good bit, which got 35% on Street Fighter.

With that said, Diablo as a game must have some serious power if one game can carry a series that far. We've seen what it's done with Mario Kart... which essentially only had 2 games in that series contest at the time.

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XxSoulxX | Posted 4/20/2009 4:12:26 PM | message detail
Half Life games should be the strongest non Goldeneye FPS.

HL2*
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/20/2009 4:13:00 PM | message detail

From: XxSoulxX | #395
Half Life games should be the strongest non Goldeneye FPS.

HL2*


I meant both Half Life games. Aka stronger then the Halos, dooms etc
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
XxSoulxX | Posted 4/20/2009 4:16:29 PM | message detail
Oh, whoops. Missed that extra s in there.
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SonicRaptor | Posted 4/20/2009 4:22:46 PM | message detail

From: MyWorldIsCrono | #396
I meant both Half Life games. Aka stronger then the Halos, dooms etc


I'm willing to accept it right now, though if Halo 1 (which is usually thought more highly of) has some hidden strength it wouldn't surprise me.
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XxSoulxX | Posted 4/20/2009 4:24:33 PM | message detail
(which is usually thought more highly of)

Only to non-FPS fans.
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Mumei | Posted 4/20/2009 4:45:38 PM | message detail
There's a poll somewhere that has Diablo beating the Elder Scrolls by a good bit, which got 35% on Street Fighter.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2794
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2439

None of the Blizzard games involved in game of the year polls seem to look very good at all, incidentally. 4 - 10%-ish.

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