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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 683

The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/19/2009 7:39:25 PM | message detail
If it were 2004 it would get 65%
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transience | Posted 4/19/2009 7:44:51 PM | message detail
ha, 65% I don't think so

the more interesting thing will be watching Star Fox's fad power do its thing.
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xyzzy
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ImplicitContent | Posted 4/19/2009 7:45:58 PM | message detail
if it were 2000 it would have 104%

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/19/2009 7:47:06 PM | message detail
whats this star fox fad you guys are always talking about
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
charmander6000 | Posted 4/19/2009 7:48:36 PM | message detail
Star Fox fad is overrated IMO, it'll do well in the power hour then die off during the rest of the match. It probably won't even be close to MK64.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: GoldenEye 007 > SMRPG Points: 33/48
XxSoulxX | Posted 4/19/2009 7:48:48 PM | message detail
I'm sure FFVII will blow us all away. The series got over 80% on Diablo when it had no reason to. Despite what my analysis will say, it's probably going to get over 60%.
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ZFS | Posted 4/19/2009 7:49:10 PM | message detail
'do a barrel roll'

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ZFS | Posted 4/19/2009 7:51:41 PM | message detail
No reason for Final Fantasy not to destroy those series the way it did. Mario and Zelda crushed everything the same way, too. GameFAQs won't stray far from its big three series.

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ExquisiteSamurai | Posted 4/19/2009 7:53:36 PM | message detail
I think FFVII will fail to break 60% .. Most likely hit around 55% or so ..

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Awaiting Final Fantasy XIII
Karma Hunter | Posted 4/19/2009 7:55:08 PM | message detail
I was expecting 65% for FF7 tomorrow man my expectations for this contest have been horribly off
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/19/2009 7:56:50 PM | message detail
Well considering it got 71% against MGS, if no major SFF was involved we could see 65%.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: GoldenEye 007 > SMRPG Points: 33/48
ZFS | Posted 4/19/2009 7:57:30 PM | message detail
65% I can get behind this c'mon FFVII

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XxSoulxX | Posted 4/19/2009 7:57:35 PM | message detail
No reason for Final Fantasy not to destroy those series the way it did. Mario and Zelda crushed everything the same way, too. GameFAQs won't stray far from its big three series.

To be fair, FFVII is going against two of the biggest games on the N64, while Mario went against three no-namers (twice) and Zelda against Nintendo and a classic PC game. Even though FFVII is stronger then the others, I don't think it will be able to match those scores.

But then again, look what it did to poor Diablo in the series contest. ;_;
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Believe it or not, the Internet is serious business - Biolizard28
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/19/2009 7:58:23 PM | message detail
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Cloud_vs_Marcus_vs_Ocelot_vs_Kefka_2007

Basically, if Cloud can get 56% against 3 low mid carders, I don't see why 2 low midcarders and a turbo fodder makes 60% impossible
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
ZFS | Posted 4/19/2009 7:59:13 PM | message detail
Although with a number of people not being surprised if it hit 60%, I'm wondering -- what are everyone's expectations for Ocarina of Time in its match?

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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/19/2009 8:00:13 PM | message detail
one hour until Star Fox 64 beats the pants off of the stupid kart game

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/19/2009 8:00:37 PM | message detail
I'd expect 45-50%

Its competition is alot stronger then this match, plus its not as strong as FF7 to begin with.
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/19/2009 8:00:52 PM | message detail
And then we have THIS:

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Cloud_vs_Midna_vs_Edgeworth_vs_Axel_Steel_2008

Failing to break 60% on a weak-ass forupack like this?
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XxSoulxX | Posted 4/19/2009 8:01:54 PM | message detail
Basically, if Cloud can get 56% against 3 low mid carders, I don't see why 2 low midcarders and a turbo fodder makes 60% impossible

MK64 and SF64 are solid midcarders. No reason for them not to be.
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ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'. - Topaz Kitsune
Believe it or not, the Internet is serious business - Biolizard28
ZFS | Posted 4/19/2009 8:03:08 PM | message detail
60% isn't impossible here, but I think it's the high mark FFVII can reasonably expect to go. I think it's more likely to be around 53 - 55%. Mario Kart 64 and Star Fox 64 shouldn't be fodder, they're actually probably pretty respectable games if you stuck them anywhere else (well, MK64 probably would be, anyway).

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/19/2009 8:04:00 PM | message detail
Maybe MK64, but I can't see SF64 being anything above low fodder

but hey then again I didn't know about that fad.
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/19/2009 8:05:36 PM | message detail
Er, anything about low mid card I mean.
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
XxSoulxX | Posted 4/19/2009 8:06:03 PM | message detail
Maybe MK64, but I can't see SF64 being anything above low fodder

but hey then again I didn't know about that fad.


SF64 is actually really respected and really popular before the fad. It shouldn't finish too far behind MK64 in a normal match (and could potentially beat it), and if FFVII does suck out all the casual vote, it could very well finish second in this match.
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ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'. - Topaz Kitsune
Believe it or not, the Internet is serious business - Biolizard28
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/19/2009 8:06:33 PM | message detail
*anything above low mid card

-.- this is what I get for trying to multi task and write up really fast posts inbetween sf4 matches
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
ZFS | Posted 4/19/2009 8:06:41 PM | message detail
Star Fox probably won't be great, but it'll be above fodder in all likelihood. If it were any of the other Star Fox games, I'd agree -- they would all be fodder. But SF64 gets a lot of love and has whatever 'joke' votes it might get from being a fad. Not that I think it's going to get any other than third here, but yeah.

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red sox 777 | Posted 4/19/2009 8:07:54 PM | message detail
I'm expecting FFVII to get around 55%, but I won't be shocked if it gets 60%. Blowing away our expectations is what contest champions do!
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/19/2009 8:11:43 PM | message detail
Oh wait, this is the match with Suikoden?

Gah, epitome of everything wrong with this format right there. Suikoden in over Suikoden II is no good.

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XxSoulxX | Posted 4/19/2009 8:13:16 PM | message detail
Oh, and just realized there was a match going on.

Nice sig Albion.
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/19/2009 8:19:22 PM | message detail
Suikoden 2 actually did pretty well against FFVII back in 2004. I wonder how many of its votes were anti-votes though.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/19/2009 8:20:44 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #079
Suikoden 2 actually did pretty well against FFVII back in 2004. I wonder how many of its votes were anti-votes though.


probably 10% of them

Nice sig Albion.

ty
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
MetricTrout | Posted 4/19/2009 8:34:15 PM | message detail
Some numbers on FF7 after the series contest:

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Link_vs_Cloud_vs_Snake_vs_Sephiroth_2006
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Link_vs_Cloud_vs_Samus_vs_Sephiroth_2007
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Solid_Snake_vs_Cloud_vs_Kirby_vs_Sephiroth_2008

2006: Cloud and Sephy put up 40.5% on Link and Snake
2007: Cloud and Sephy put up 44.2% on Link and Samus
2008: Cloud and Sephy put up 46.6% on Snake and Kirby

Well, FF7's percentage keeps going up, but against weaker competition. It performed roughly as expected in the 2007 contest, but it really collapsed in 2008.

Perhaps the same thing that happened to FF7 happened to Chrono Trigger in 2006? Or will FF7 rebound and perform back up to its 2007 level?

I can see FF7 scoring anywhere from 50% to 60% in this match. Unless it falls outside this range, it will be rather difficult to draw conclusions.
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/19/2009 8:35:40 PM | message detail
I think OoT will do low 50's. I don't know, because I don't really know how to compare OoT's competition to FF7's. I think overall each one is weaker, but I don't think Chrono Cross will be nearly as fodderific as Suikoden will be even including SFF. Only thing I'm really certain about is that FF7 will get a higher percentage than OoT.
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transience | Posted 4/19/2009 8:38:10 PM | message detail
doesn't OOT have FF9 and Half-Life? that's tougher competition than MK64 and SF64. Chrono Cross rocks Suikoden, too.
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/19/2009 8:39:26 PM | message detail
Also a lot of talk of Mario, Zelda, and Final Fantasy being huge franchise powerhouses, but does anyone else think MGS will also be that impressive? Granted, its games are gonna advance Round 1 anyway besides maybe MGS3 (which should have a good shot anyway), but I wouldn't be surprised to see them stronger than expected, and I'm sure everyone's expecting some boosts already.
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/19/2009 8:42:44 PM | message detail
HL and FF9 probably beat SF64 easily, though I think MK64 is probably stronger than both. And yeah, CC would crush Suikoden with little effort. I just have a weird feeling that OoT won't live up to expectations (despite LoZ, LttP, and even LA impressing like hell). But then again, my gut feelings are usually wrong anyway, so I should probably ignore it.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/19/2009 8:43:29 PM | message detail
CC would likely put 75% on suikoden just because of it actually being played by people
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
transience | Posted 4/19/2009 8:44:27 PM | message detail
I would take FF9 over MK64. I might take Half-Life over it too.. not sure there. probably side with MK64 after seeing SMK though.
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xyzzy
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/19/2009 8:46:36 PM | message detail
After seeing games like Contra, Doom, and Goldeneye not quite live up to expectations, while franchise votes reign supreme...HL gets stomped by MK64.

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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/19/2009 8:47:57 PM | message detail
I'd have taken FF9 and HL over MK64 before seeing SMK in action. Now, I'd have to give the nod to MK64. Though I think MK64/HL would be rather close, especially since I don't know if I could pick MP over Mk64.
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transience | Posted 4/19/2009 8:49:20 PM | message detail
franchise votes for MK? after it lost easily to Mega Man?

I dun think so.
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xyzzy
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/19/2009 8:50:02 PM | message detail
wait was that sarcasm or not

I can't tell anymore, this contest has FRIED my brain (my bracket too)

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transience | Posted 4/19/2009 8:50:05 PM | message detail
and I think we're overreacting to SMK. it's equal to Super Metroid (assuming there's no weirdness going on there), but Super Metroid's not a top 15 game or anything, it's probably not even top 30.
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xyzzy
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/19/2009 8:51:12 PM | message detail
Star Fox fad?

You actually think people will vote for Star Fox because of a 5 year old fad that hasn't been seen in ages?

Star Fox was a huge N64 game and if it beats MK64 here it's because of it's awesome power.
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transience | Posted 4/19/2009 8:51:35 PM | message detail
series contest *is* franchise voting - put two and two together there
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xyzzy
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Karma Hunter | Posted 4/19/2009 8:52:01 PM | message detail
I'm thinking franchise voting really only falls into the picture when a large subset of the voters haven't played the game(s) in question. I have no problem with the idea that something like Zelda: Phantom Hourglass could lay waste to a poll nearly as much as a legitimate Zelda, so long as the competition consisted of no-namers.

That makes me worry for SotN, among other things, but that remains to be seen.
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/19/2009 8:52:28 PM | message detail
Goldeneye - 75%
Super Mario RPG - 60%
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/19/2009 8:52:28 PM | message detail
1 The Legend of Zelda
50.00%
Hyrule 1 1
2 Final Fantasy
49.01%
Ultima 1 1
3 Super Mario Bros.
45.84%
Mushroom 1 1
4 Super Smash Bros.
35.06%
Mushroom 2 2
5 Sonic the Hedgehog
29.69%
Mushroom 3 3


Yeah, MK sucks at franchise voting compared to franchise powerhouses like Sonic the Hedgehog!

If the 2004 contest and the list aren't great indicators of a game's worth in this contest, I sure as hell can't see how the Series contest can be, either.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/19/2009 8:52:39 PM | message detail
I'm not sure where I'd put Super Metroid though; i'm still debating whether it beats MP or not (indirectly), but it can't be too far away from it.. right?
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transience | Posted 4/19/2009 8:53:28 PM | message detail
SOTN isn't a noname. I agree on that idea but it's stretching to say that Castlevania is an unknown title today. it did nearly upend KH and beat Halo, after all.

if Resident Evil is a bigger name today, it's not by much - and it's not because of RE1.
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xyzzy
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transience | Posted 4/19/2009 8:54:17 PM | message detail
people want to put SMK's win on franchise voting but it's just more popular. it always has been. Sonic was never that popular.

but Sonic as a franchise is, a lot moreso than Mario Kart. it's just more iconic.
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xyzzy
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