GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 683
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/19/2009 1:10:36 AM | message detail |
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Made a new topic for 683, since the other guy can't count or ctrl + v
worth a damn. GTotta put all this first post stuff into the, uh....
first post =p GO SMRPG! CRUSH THOSE HEATHENS! ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/ http://thengamer.com/xstats http://thengamer.com/stats ~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the match pics*~ http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them. X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process. rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it. For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything. --- .,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,. Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Lunar 2 |
| creativename | Posted 4/19/2009 10:28:20 AM | message detail |
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Not opening with Do a barrel roll the day before a Star Fox 64 match=epic failure my friend. I trust this travesty shall be addressed with the next topic! --- Save_Us.RAT BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN |
| HaRRicH | Posted 4/19/2009 1:59:41 PM | message detail |
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Press Z or R twice..... --- Prototype Shorthand, do you speak it?! |
| MnMZero | Posted 4/19/2009 2:00:07 PM | message detail |
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I feel like continuing my SF64/FFVII crossover in this topic. Aeris: Gee, I've been saved by Cloud, how swell! --- Currently playing: GTAIV, SSBB, MP3, Apollo Justice, FFIVDS, Dracula X |
| HaRRicH | Posted 4/19/2009 2:03:34 PM | message detail |
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Guard Scorpion: You'll never defeat SEPHIROOOOOTH!!! --- Prototype Shorthand, do you speak it?! |
| M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/19/2009 2:04:24 PM | message detail |
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Seven hours until this boring match is over and the next inevitably boring match starts! I miss when we were having close matches. --- http://gamebros.smackjeeves.com/ http://l33trappacat.smackjeeves.com/ |
| MnMZero | Posted 4/19/2009 2:06:52 PM | message detail |
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Too bad Zack's not here to see ya FAIL! --- Currently playing: GTAIV, SSBB, MP3, Apollo Justice, FFIVDS, Dracula X |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 4/19/2009 2:08:39 PM | message detail |
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PEW PEW --- http://thengamer.com/guru/ |
| Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/19/2009 2:09:28 PM | message detail |
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Tag Damn, I've missed a lot. And the first thing that crossed my mind when I saw that Metroid advanced was, "No way..." --- "Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
| M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/19/2009 2:09:53 PM | message detail |
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Neat, only 9 Gurus don't have OoT in the finals (including myself), and
every single Guru has FF7 in the finals (though not necessarily with it
placing). --- http://gamebros.smackjeeves.com/ http://l33trappacat.smackjeeves.com/ |
| creativename | Posted 4/19/2009 2:12:43 PM | message detail |
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I feel like continuing my SF64/FFVII crossover in this topic. Oooh I missed that - post it again! I'd definitely be interested in that :) Guard Scorpion: You'll never defeat SEPHIROOOOOTH!!! Awesome :) Man I want to play SF64 now :( This is one of the few games where I'd actually find a 4chan rally or something pretty cool. SF64 for contest champ! --- Save_Us.RAT BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN |
| MnMZero | Posted 4/19/2009 2:18:45 PM | message detail |
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Oooh I missed that - post it again! I'd definitely be interested in that :) Nah, just started making random Star Fox comments about next match since SF64 was being overlooked. SF64 for champ! Can't let you do that, Cloud Strife! Ocarina of Time has ordered us to take you down! Sephy, long time no see! Legend of Zelda's enemy is MY enemy! --- Currently playing: GTAIV, SSBB, MP3, Apollo Justice, FFIVDS, Dracula X |
| Mumei | Posted 4/19/2009 2:20:50 PM | message detail |
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Heh. Keep this up and I'll be voting for SF64 tonight. --- "Luxe, calme et volupte." - Charles Baudelaire, The Invitation to the Voyage |
| MnMZero | Posted 4/19/2009 2:23:22 PM | message detail |
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Aeris: Cloud, get this guy off me! whoops --- Currently playing: GTAIV, SSBB, MP3, Apollo Justice, FFIVDS, Dracula X |
| Mumei | Posted 4/19/2009 2:26:50 PM | message detail |
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Sold. --- "Luxe, calme et volupte." - Charles Baudelaire, The Invitation to the Voyage |
| creativename | Posted 4/19/2009 2:36:35 PM | message detail |
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HJtaailAms8&feature=related Oh yes. --- Save_Us.RAT BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN |
| HaRRicH | Posted 4/19/2009 3:02:10 PM | message detail |
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Slippy: Be careful of forgetfulness. Your lucky color is... blue? Super Mario RPG versus Mario Kart 64, who ya got? --- Prototype Shorthand, do you speak it?! |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/19/2009 3:02:47 PM | message detail |
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Uhh... I guess I'll take the game that has less casual votes. --- *is Dranze* BGE2 - Today: GE007 > SMRPG - Points: 34/48 Vote: SMRPG |
| MnMZero | Posted 4/19/2009 3:11:16 PM | message detail |
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Head to head? SMRPG is more loved. --- Currently playing: GTAIV, SSBB, MP3, Apollo Justice, FFIVDS, Dracula X |
| charmander6000 | Posted 4/19/2009 3:39:41 PM | message detail |
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Vote totals seem much better compare to yesterday, we're heading for about 122k. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls BGE2 - Today's Match: GoldenEye 007 > SMRPG Points: 33/48 |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/19/2009 3:42:27 PM | message detail |
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I expect this to be a trend while we're getting to games everyone knows --- http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft |
| red sox 777 | Posted 4/19/2009 4:00:32 PM | message detail |
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FF7 has always been the best vote draw there is, so we may see a new record for this contest tomorrow. --- Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests. |
| HaRRicH | Posted 4/19/2009 4:04:48 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, FF7's R1-match before the poll moved lower was one of the two
matches in BGE1 to break 100,000 votes...and that was against Suikoden
2. The only match that beat its vote-total was Halo/Starcraft. After
the poll went down on the front page, FF7 > CT was the match that
came closest to breaking 100,000 votes. Now, with FF7, Suikoden, and two killer N64-classics in MK64 and SF64, one would hope that vote-totals soar tomorrow. We'll see though. --- Prototype Shorthand, do you speak it?! |
| transience | Posted 4/19/2009 4:06:30 PM | message detail |
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yeah I wrote about that in my Crew writeup. that was the key piece of evidence for FF7 > OOT -- the vote totals. --- xyzzy |
| M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/19/2009 4:12:40 PM | message detail |
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I think the much higher vote totals may weaken FF7 a small bit... ...but the thing is that it'll be more than canceled out by the format. FF7 probably has a ton of loyal fans that will vote for it over any other game in this contest, so I think FF7 will appear even more powerful than in 2004 thanks to the format giving it a large, dedicated fanbase. It's kinda like L-Block if L-Block were Link. Of course, I'm speaking out my ass here, but I think the stronger FF7's competition gets, the better FF7 will actually appear. A very scary thought indeed. --- http://gamebros.smackjeeves.com/ http://l33trappacat.smackjeeves.com/ |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/19/2009 4:14:25 PM | message detail |
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You know, thats a very valid point with the format... I gotta wonder how many people voted for CT and OoT just to anti vote FF7. --- http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft |
| Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/19/2009 4:19:04 PM | message detail |
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You know, thats a very valid point with the format... I gotta wonder how many people voted for CT and OoT just to anti vote FF7. Hmm. Then again, put FF7 against Chrono Trigger in round 1, and CT probably gets its face kicked in. --- "Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/19/2009 4:22:44 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, in the 100 games tournament, 24% of all entries had FF7 at number one. That's crazy high. Plus after 2004, the after-poll had 28% agreeing that FF7 is the best game of all time, presumable meaning that those 28% would vote it over anything, pretty much guaranteeing FF7 like 30% regardless of its competition >_> --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
| HaRRicH | Posted 4/19/2009 4:26:33 PM | message detail |
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For what it's worth, the poll is five years old now and the Top 100
List was compiled of just registered users...but those are still very
strong numbers for FF7 to have on its side. --- Prototype Shorthand, do you speak it?! |
| Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/19/2009 4:26:34 PM | message detail |
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Plus after 2004, the after-poll had 28% agreeing that FF7 is the
best game of all time, presumable meaning that those 28% would vote it
over anything, pretty much guaranteeing FF7 like 30% regardless of its
competition >_> But votals were much lower then than they are now. --- "Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/19/2009 4:30:02 PM | message detail |
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They're about 30% higher on average in comparison yeah, but I don't see
a reason why that 30% would have any reason to skew away from FF7. The
more important thing isn't the total but the time frame. 2004 compared
to 2009 is more instable than 90,000 votes compared to 115,000 votes --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/19/2009 4:38:17 PM | message detail |
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That's one of the main reasons I didn't take LTTP > FF7. --- *is Dranze* BGE2 - Today: GE007 > SMRPG - Points: 34/48 Vote: SMRPG |
| transience | Posted 4/19/2009 4:38:30 PM | message detail |
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The List is late '05, post-Boost, so I don't see *too* much of a reason
to doubt it. it's more credible than the Game Contest for example. --- xyzzy |
| Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/19/2009 6:19:51 PM | message detail |
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BTW, are the match pics for this round boxart? --- "Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
| ZFS | Posted 4/19/2009 6:39:46 PM | message detail |
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Yeah. He'll take in-game images/artwork, too, though. But I think he sticks with boxarts more often than not. --- http://i44.tinypic.com/hwh4yo.gif |
| Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/19/2009 6:53:49 PM | message detail |
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Speaking of which, I can't help but laugh at Mega Man 2's pic still.
What in the blue hell WAS that?! It sure ain't Mega Man, that's for
sure. Looks more like some dude in a futuristic suit to me. --- "Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
| Mumei | Posted 4/19/2009 6:55:03 PM | message detail |
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Beyond the top 5, (FFVII, OoT, CT, ALttP, SMB3), I wouldn't use The
List for much of anything - and using it for the top five is rather
useless, as those five are fairly obvious as games that would be strong
here. Has anyone actually found The List to be useful for anything more than incredibly superficial "analysis," because I'm wondering where the sudden infatuation with referencing The List is coming from. --- "Luxe, calme et volupte." - Charles Baudelaire, The Invitation to the Voyage |
| MetricTrout | Posted 4/19/2009 6:56:06 PM | message detail |
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We just lack sufficient data, that is all. --- http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=147 |
| charmander6000 | Posted 4/19/2009 7:02:28 PM | message detail |
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Match XIV: Final Fantasy VII vs. Mario Kart 64 vs. Star Fox 64 vs. Suikoden Information: Name: Final Fantasy VII Year: 1997 System: PS 2004 Performance: 85.63% against Suikoden II, 80.03% against Xenogears, 71.30% against Metal Gear Solid, 53.82% against LoZ: Ocarina of Time, 62.43% against Super Smash Bros. Melee, 58.24% against Chrono Trigger Name: Mario Kart 64 Year: 1997 System: N64 2004 Performance: Did not enter Name: Star Fox 64 Year: 1997 System: N64 2004 Performance: Did not enter Name: Suikoden Year: 1996 System: PS 2004 Performance: Did not enter Analysis Time to see how well the previous champion and the odds on favourite does in this contest. This match may not mean much or be that interesting, but it will give us some good insight on what to expect for future rounds. This is also the debut matches of two fan favourite Nintendo 64 games. Being the previous champion and a member of the super six Final Fantasy VII won’t have any problems until the finals, making round one just a stepping stone in its path. The site has been more pro-Nintendo since 2004 so Final Fantasy VII needs to step it up against it eventual clash with Ocarina of Time. With three new games it is unknown of their strength, but reaching the mid to high 50s should be doable for this juggernaut. In 2004 we watched Final Fantasy VII crush Suikoden II and with the original being expected to do worse expecting anything but last is delusional. We don’t know if Final Fantasy VII SFF Suikoden II, but it won’t matter seeing as the game in question is also present in this match. One of the problems of the generation divisions is some divisions are easier to get games in so we see thing like this where a weaker game in the series gets in over a stronger one. While a game with many great quotes I don’t see Star Fox 64 doing much in this match. Not only is Mario Kart 64 higher up on the Nintendo 64 hierarchy, but I see Fox getting a rather large portion of his strength from the Super Smash Bros. series rather than from his own. While a vocal fanbase like many vocal fanbases it won’t have the strength it needs to contend in this match. Mario Kart 64 has always been my favourite of the series and even before Super Mario Kart I’ve always thought it had half decent strength. However after Super Mario Kart’s performance against Super Metroid it would be a shock to see Mario Kart 64 not have half decent strength. This however makes me wonder why Mario Kart series lost so easily in the series contest. My guess is that fans of the Mario Kart series mostly liked all the games together while fans of Mega Man liked different Mega Man games and all joined together for the series contest. Well expect this division to go mostly as expected; besides an off chance upset the rest of this division should go with consensus especially since GoldenEye 007 and Super Mario RPG were able to advance today. It should be interesting to watch Final Fantasy VII fail with the board vote and rise about 10% throughout the night. charmander6000’s Bracket: Final Fantasy VII > Mario Kart 64 charmander6000’s Prediction: Final Fantasy VII – 57.63%, Mario Kart 64 – 21.38%, Star Fox 64 – 14.63%, Suikoden – 6.36% --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls BGE2 - Today's Match: GoldenEye 007 > SMRPG Points: 33/48 |
| MetricTrout | Posted 4/19/2009 7:05:42 PM | message detail |
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Here we go. This is the match that decides that fate of the contest.
How FF7 does will determine how much it has declined in strength since
2004. I think if FF7 fails to score at least 55% in this match, then
things will look pretty bleak for it in the future. --- http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=147 |
| HaRRicH | Posted 4/19/2009 7:16:50 PM | message detail |
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Friendly reminder: FF7 might "win the contest in the first update" much
like FF from the Series Contest...and we know how that turned out.
Don't believe the hype! --- Prototype Shorthand, do you speak it?! |
| transience | Posted 4/19/2009 7:18:52 PM | message detail |
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this match really doesn't say anything. we have no idea how strong these two games are and Starfox could be a joke-like game. --- xyzzy |
| red sox 777 | Posted 4/19/2009 7:22:19 PM | message detail |
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It's more likely that people will be calling the contest for OOT the first update, I think. --- Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests. |
| transience | Posted 4/19/2009 7:22:43 PM | message detail |
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yup. time for people to do the usual overreaction and troll FF7. --- xyzzy |
| charmander6000 | Posted 4/19/2009 7:30:04 PM | message detail |
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So any predictions at 5 minutes for FFVII? I'm thinking about 47% --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls BGE2 - Today's Match: GoldenEye 007 > SMRPG Points: 33/48 |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/19/2009 7:30:47 PM | message detail |
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If FF7 gets over 60% here, the contest is done. FF7 is the victor --- http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft |
| charmander6000 | Posted 4/19/2009 7:33:51 PM | message detail |
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If FF7 gets over 60% here, the contest is done. FF7 is the victor I wouldn't really be surprised if it got 60% here, plus you have to see OoT's performance as well. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls BGE2 - Today's Match: GoldenEye 007 > SMRPG Points: 33/48 |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/19/2009 7:34:30 PM | message detail |
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If FF7 gets over 60% in the first 5 minute update it might win the contest --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
| red sox 777 | Posted 4/19/2009 7:36:01 PM | message detail |
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I'll go with....40% at the 1-minute mark, and 43% at the freeze.
FFVII's opponents here should all be really good at the power hour. But
who knows, maybe Board 8 and other early voters have decided that 5
years of Nintendo domination is enough at last. --- Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests. |
| ZFS | Posted 4/19/2009 7:37:28 PM | message detail |
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If FFVII gets over 60% in this match you could stick FFX and CT in the
final and it'd still probably beat OoT. That would be crazy levels of
strength. --- http://i44.tinypic.com/hwh4yo.gif |
