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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 682

BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/19/2009 11:15:43 AM | message detail
I may have said SOTN/RE would be close a week ago, but now? If the strongest old RE game is getting the crap beat out of it here, Symphony should do outstandingly on the worst old RE game.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/19/2009 11:16:23 AM | message detail
Hell, it wouldn't surprise me if Kirby beats RE there.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/19/2009 11:17:20 AM | message detail
Kirby is getting mauled. I think RE can put up a respectable percentage relative to SotN, but the upset was never really there for that one.
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Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
MnMZero | Posted 4/19/2009 11:22:30 AM | message detail
You guys are holding on a bit too hard to SotN 2004...
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Currently playing: GTAIV, SSBB, MP3, Apollo Justice, FFIVDS, Dracula X
Big Bob | Posted 4/19/2009 11:25:23 AM | message detail
Of all the characters and games that have been in these contests, Symphony of the Night is possibly the biggest recognizability to strength ratio I've ever seen. While Castlevania games are popular, they're far from mainstream, and I have yet to meet anyone in real life who's played Symphony of the Night.

That said, when it comes to Alucard, it's best to just roll with it.
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Just say the word and it's bear time!
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Internet_Warbot | Posted 4/19/2009 11:25:33 AM | message detail
ha ha a Castlevania game being "favourite" in this day and age. Castlevania III didn't crack double figues, Alucard has been horrible for years. Castlevania is old news. It doesn't matter how bad Resi looks today, it'll beat anything Castlevania has.

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Hey you, get offa my cloud! - Mario
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 4/19/2009 11:42:13 AM | message detail
*checks match*

Yep, pretty much exactly how I expected this one to go.
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
plasmabeam | Posted 4/19/2009 12:04:17 PM | message detail
Castlevania III didn't crack double figues,

I can't name 2 people who have played CV3. Additionally, it's simply not a popular game, and it follows the classic Castlevania platforming, not the Metroid-style variety hat everyone loves.

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~Jacksonville Jaguars~
Megaman703 | Posted 4/19/2009 12:07:18 PM | message detail
I'd put all the Metroidvanias and Super Castlevania IV over III. III isn't that high on the Castlevania totem pole
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"In the game of chess you can never let your opponent see your pieces."
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/19/2009 12:11:32 PM | message detail
Actually, completely disregard what I just said.

REFAQs will be salvaged yet.
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Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 4/19/2009 12:16:14 PM | message detail
SotN's been on the decline for quite some time, so I'm not too hopeful about its chances with RE. It MIGHT pull it off, but if it does, it'll be based on the weakness of its opponent, not on its strength. Too much time has passed since its release, and I don't think a PSP remake has all that punch necessary to put it back near its 2004 levels. It all falls down to how far it has fallen, really.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/19/2009 12:23:20 PM | message detail
Don't forget the Xbox 360 arcade download. I think it was a fairly popular downloaded game
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
LordLockeRA | Posted 4/19/2009 12:33:01 PM | message detail
I think SotN has a really good shot at advancing. SM64's going to NOM up a lot of the vote, and KSS is probably hold up better against SM64 then people are expecting, cutting a lot of RE's potential vote total down. With a low amount of vote left to split between SotN and RE in their fight for second, I think SotN's sturdier fanbase has it.

That said, if SM64 lays an egg (not likely, given trends so far) or Kirby Super Star proves to be worse then high fodder at best and gets obliterated by SFF (more likely, but if the Kirby series has any legitimate strength, KSS will be THE game to show it), RE has a shot at gobbling enough Nintendo apathy votes to squeak past.
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Meeh. Whatever.
Ultimaphazon | Posted 4/19/2009 12:35:09 PM | message detail
I may have said SOTN/RE would be close a week ago, but now? If the strongest old RE game is getting the crap beat out of it here, Symphony should do outstandingly on the worst old RE game.


Honestly, I think that RE1 will be stronger than RE2.
We've seen it so many times already in this contest: the first game in the series performs noticeably better than the presumed fan favorite.

Sonic 1 was supposed to be weaker than any of the others, and yet it's the only one to impress.
Hell, MK2 got more on S2 than SF2 got on S1. Are you going to argue that MK2 is stronger than SF2? Because that makes no sense at all.

DKC2 is bombing, while DKC1 was able to impress.

I guess RE2 could still be the stronger game, but I'm not feeling it.
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A pro isn't someone who sacrifices himself for his job. That's just a fool. - Reno, FFVII
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/19/2009 12:39:48 PM | message detail
I guess I could see RE benefit from a more mild case of franchise voting. Lord knows I'd love to see it, even though it seems far less likely for a series like that.
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Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
creativename | Posted 4/19/2009 12:39:51 PM | message detail
I believe in the first in the franchise factor - there's something to a game just being called for instance "Sonic the Hedgehog" or "Mega Man" or "Final Fantasy" that captures certain emotions. It's about symbolism and psychology and evoking certain feelings.

However I don't think DKC2 is a good example of this. Something funky is going on with that one.
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Save_Us.RAT
BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
MnMZero | Posted 4/19/2009 12:40:31 PM | message detail
KSS is going to look horrible in that match. I don't think a Kirby game has ever looked good in any poll on this site. Now we're asking for it to show up in a poll with SM64 in it? KSS is going to join the turbo-fodder ranks in that poll.
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Currently playing: GTAIV, SSBB, MP3, Apollo Justice, FFIVDS, Dracula X
creativename | Posted 4/19/2009 12:43:13 PM | message detail
KSS is going to look horrible in that match. I don't think a Kirby game has ever looked good in any poll on this site. Now we're asking for it to show up in a poll with SM64 in it? KSS is going to join the turbo-fodder ranks in that poll.

More or less what my feelings have been from the start (although I have no idea how Kirby games have performed in any polls, i just can't imagine them having any strength at all - who respects Kirby games?).
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Save_Us.RAT
BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 4/19/2009 12:49:08 PM | message detail
I believe in the first in the franchise factor - there's something to a game just being called for instance "Sonic the Hedgehog" or "Mega Man" or "Final Fantasy" that captures certain emotions. It's about symbolism and psychology and evoking certain feelings.

However I don't think DKC2 is a good example of this. Something funky is going on with that one.

Lopen said something about it in the last thread: that we've been going through tons of SFF and LFF already, but the non-SFF'ed entrants have been bombing so hard it's looked like that's not the case. Seeing how DKC2 has laid an egg the size of the moon, I'm starting to believe that.

As an aside, Franchise Factor FTW. Needs to make it to the front page! :p
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 4/19/2009 12:57:39 PM | message detail
oh, and RE2's gonna look a lot better soon. I wouldn't even be amazed if it got close to SMRPG overnight.

lol
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 4/19/2009 12:59:53 PM | message detail
+1 to what Masato said. I don't care who you are, SMRPG is a Square RPG, even having Mario in its name is not enough to weaken such a powerful night vote.
Ultimaphazon | Posted 4/19/2009 1:04:31 PM | message detail
Why would DKC2 get the same percentage on SMRPG as DKC1 got on LttP.
Considering we obviously have LttP > SMRPG, DKC1 > DKC2 seems clear.

Or do you think that LttP didn't SFF DKC1, but DKC2 is getting massively SFF'd by SMRPG?
I don't think there was any significant amount of SFF in those two matches.
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A pro isn't someone who sacrifices himself for his job. That's just a fool. - Reno, FFVII
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 4/19/2009 1:06:22 PM | message detail
Exactly. Anyone doubting SMRPG needs to take a good look at just what website this is.
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
LordLockeRA | Posted 4/19/2009 1:06:23 PM | message detail
Nothing weird is going on with DKC2.

At least, not if you're assuming like me that DKC2 is the first Donkey Kong game following typical Donkey Kong trends and choking horribly in the face of genuine competition. I don't think this bodes well for DKC next round in the Super Nintendo 4-pack From Hell.
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Meeh. Whatever.
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 4/19/2009 1:07:52 PM | message detail
I actually think DKC WAS SFFed, but Doom has gone down so much it couldn't capitalize on it, giving DKC the win.
Mumei | Posted 4/19/2009 1:09:05 PM | message detail
Just out of curiosity, but is there a place where Board 8ers (particularly from this topic) have posted their predictions for the bracket? I'm interested in looking through people's brackets, so...

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"Luxe, calme et volupte." - Charles Baudelaire, The Invitation to the Voyage
Ultimaphazon | Posted 4/19/2009 1:10:19 PM | message detail
I guess you can explain DKC2 sucking with the ever popular "obvious last place performs crappier than he should" factor, that we've seen in character battles.

Actually that makes some sense to me.
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A pro isn't someone who sacrifices himself for his job. That's just a fool. - Reno, FFVII
redrocket | Posted 4/19/2009 1:10:23 PM | message detail
http://www.thengamer.com/guru/

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From his looks Magus is Macho Man Randy Savage as an anime zombie. The black wind howls, and one of you will snap into a Slim Jim ooh yeeeah! -sonicblastpunch
Mumei | Posted 4/19/2009 1:12:01 PM | message detail
Thanks.

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"Luxe, calme et volupte." - Charles Baudelaire, The Invitation to the Voyage
HaRRicH | Posted 4/19/2009 1:13:01 PM | message detail
If Doom went down a lot, LoZ:LttP should have too; I believe it's been said LoZ:LttP/Doom went as expected between them.

Though I figure DKC will get last place in R2, it should still do better than DKC2 here...and that's despite LoZ:LttP > GE and SMK > RE2 (I don't know what to say about a comparison with SM and SMRPG yet).
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 4/19/2009 1:16:54 PM | message detail
Why would LttP go down? Doom hasn't put out anything good for years, Zelda has Twilight Princess and everything else that came with it. I just don't see how you can go down too much if your franchise is either stable or on the rise.
HaRRicH | Posted 4/19/2009 1:19:05 PM | message detail
Yeah Mum, N's Guru-site is the place to be for that knowledge.


Let's try this four-way:

Castlevania: Symphony of the Night
Half-Life 2
Resident Evil 2
Super Mario Kart
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
HaRRicH | Posted 4/19/2009 1:20:15 PM | message detail
I don't actually think LoZ:LttP has gone down, but if you think Doom has then LoZ:LttP probably has too since their relationship hasn't changed much since 2004.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/19/2009 1:20:38 PM | message detail
Mario Kart > Half-Life 2. I wouldn't grapple with that match very much.
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Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
creativename | Posted 4/19/2009 1:23:22 PM | message detail
Why would DKC2 get the same percentage on SMRPG as DKC1 got on LttP.

I'm not sure what you're trying to say. One would think it wouldn't get the same percentage because obviously LttP>>SMRPG, yet DKC2 is doing slightly worse than DKC1.

Or do you think that LttP didn't SFF DKC1, but DKC2 is getting massively SFF'd by SMRPG?

I thought this went without saying, but part of the weirdness is that LttP would be expected to SFF even more than SMRPG because its so much stronger. Yet DKC2 clearly resisted SFF against LttP. So it's a bit of a stretch to say DKC2 is getting SFFed; but maybe it is, in which case that's just really weird.

One could say it's the "Mario" part of the name which is kryptonite to DK, but again, SMRPG just isn't all that strong.

choking horribly in the face of genuine competition

Because A Link to the Past is not genuine competition. So now we know.
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Save_Us.RAT
BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
MnMZero | Posted 4/19/2009 1:24:11 PM | message detail
Also, why is there so much confusion about DKC2 doing worse, relative to what DKC1 did? DKC2 is in a poll where 3 entities draw from the Nintendo fanbase (SMRPG, DKC2, Goldeneye). DKC1 only had one other Nintendo entity in LttP. Of course DKC2 is going to get squeezed out of more votes, especially since both of those games are more popular anyways.
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Currently playing: GTAIV, SSBB, MP3, Apollo Justice, FFIVDS, Dracula X
transience | Posted 4/19/2009 1:25:42 PM | message detail
eh, I have no problem with DKC1 > DKC2. I don't really see it as being too interesting to debate either; we'll never have to worry about it again.

though if you want to throw around silly ideas, you can say how Mario is more likely to hurt DKC than Zelda because there's so much more "SFF" room. it's kinda like how Link/Samus goes according to stats while Mario/Samus is a SFF beatdown. Link is just so much stronger than Mario that the SFF isn't very evident.

the same thing goes here.
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xyzzy
http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/7033/trannyanalysis.png
creativename | Posted 4/19/2009 1:32:18 PM | message detail
Nintendo fanbase (SMRPG, DKC2, Goldeneye).

Goldeneye SFFing DKC2 is really pushing it.


though if you want to throw around silly ideas, you can say how Mario is more likely to hurt DKC than Zelda because there's so much more "SFF" room. it's kinda like how Link/Samus goes according to stats while Mario/Samus is a SFF beatdown. Link is just so much stronger than Mario that the SFF isn't very evident.

This...doesn't make any sense. That's not how the mechanics work.

SFF is about overlap, and relative strengths among the overlap. A weaker competitor will have less SFF power ceteris paribus - they'd need higher overlap to compensate. Mario does seem to have higher overlap-based strength (intra-fanbase strength), but SMRPG doesn't seem like a good candidate for that, and it has so much room to make up on LttP just to get the same level of SFF.

The DKC/DKC2 thing is just really weird. Not important, but quirky.
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Save_Us.RAT
BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
transience | Posted 4/19/2009 1:35:30 PM | message detail
Mario seems to overlap with DKC moreso than Zelda does - DKC is practically a Mario clone, though it obviously has its own take on the genre.

extending it to SMRPG is stretching it a bit, but if you want to come up with some magical reason why it's losing worse, that's as good of one as any. though I personally like "it's just weaker".
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xyzzy
http://www.mistwalkercorp.com/en/_src/sc569/HNI_0022.jpg
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/19/2009 1:36:27 PM | message detail
why would dkc2 be weaker though? I thought it was generally accepted as the best DKC game
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
ImplicitContent | Posted 4/19/2009 1:37:39 PM | message detail
3 > 1 > 2

who wants some

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all hail ec your lord and savior
HaRRicH | Posted 4/19/2009 1:44:19 PM | message detail
Maybe we're under-estimating Mario spin-offs? SMK killed Sonic 3 while nearly beating SM and has a solid chance to advance to R3, GE is only 53-47'ing SMRPG right now, MK64 will probably kill SF64 tomorrow, and many expect PM to mess up MP.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/19/2009 1:45:15 PM | message detail
mario party top tier
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http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png
Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
creativename | Posted 4/19/2009 1:48:22 PM | message detail
I expect Paper Mario to do quite respectably - it's the spiritual successor to SMRPG right?
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Save_Us.RAT
BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/19/2009 1:49:43 PM | message detail

From: creativename | #494
I expect Paper Mario to do quite respectably - it's the spiritual successor to SMRPG right?


it'll do no where near super mario rpg

I expect alot of super mario rpgs support to be from square fans, and square fans avoided n64
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http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png
Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
MnMZero | Posted 4/19/2009 1:49:52 PM | message detail
Goldeneye SFFing DKC2 is really pushing it.

So are you saying Goldeneye doesn't draw from the Nintendo fanbase (which is what I actually said)? Because I don't see how it doesn't. It was the most popular game on a major Nintendo console for a significant amount of time. Sure it also gains appeal from those outside the main Nintendo fanbase (as seen in it standing up better to OoT than SM64), but still, come on.
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Currently playing: GTAIV, SSBB, MP3, Apollo Justice, FFIVDS, Dracula X
transience | Posted 4/19/2009 1:51:41 PM | message detail
Paper Mario's POTD history isn't great, but I imagine it can be SMRPG-lite. SMRPG came first and in this case I'd say that's pretty significant since it introduced a lot of people to RPGs.
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xyzzy
http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/7033/trannyanalysis.png
MnMZero | Posted 4/19/2009 1:53:24 PM | message detail
Oh, and Paper Mario is going to do worse than SMRPG, but it isn't because of Square fans. It's because it was released waaaaaay too late in the N64's lifespan. If Paper Mario was released in 1998 or early, it definitely would be one of the most popular games on the N64, or at the very least would rival SMRPGs popularity.
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Currently playing: GTAIV, SSBB, MP3, Apollo Justice, FFIVDS, Dracula X
HaRRicH | Posted 4/19/2009 1:53:52 PM | message detail
Spiritually, yeah, as I understand it. Still, despite my theory, PM hasn't had success here in GotY-polls:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=769
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1870
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2988

Whereas:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1128

If MP can kill SMS and MP2 can kill SPM, then PM shouldn't hurt MP too badly...but I fear it won't work out like that, considering SMK/SMRPG so far and MK64 probably impressing tomorrow, too.


I dunno.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
transience | Posted 4/19/2009 1:54:01 PM | message detail
play nothing
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xyzzy
http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/7033/trannyanalysis.png