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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 681

UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/17/2009 4:25:36 PM | message detail
ZELDA



~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it.

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Devil May Cry 2
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/17/2009 4:26:28 PM | message detail
god damn you ZELDA

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/17/2009 9:30:32 PM | message detail
LOL Sonic 2 is weak as hell.
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http://l33trappacat.smackjeeves.com/
Gaddswell | Posted 4/17/2009 9:30:35 PM | message detail
SNOIC
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http://www.court-records.net/manga/4koma/(eng)4koma2.png
Hail FastFalcon, our new guru overlord!
nintendogirl1 | Posted 4/17/2009 9:31:01 PM | message detail
NGirl's Round 1 Divisions 1-3 (assuming this holds):

Division 1: 12 points
Division 2: 14 points
Division 3: 12 points
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Eh.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/17/2009 9:31:03 PM | message detail
Division 3 and division 4 are easily the ones with the best games. So good
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
LinkLegend27 | Posted 4/17/2009 9:31:12 PM | message detail
Test your might
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Fortes in Unitate.
I ain't conceited only positive and way better
red sox 777 | Posted 4/17/2009 9:31:40 PM | message detail
Time to guess that Secret of Mana performs more like a Final Fantasy game and less like Chrono Trigger in Europe.

Counter-Bold Prediction: Secret of Mana wins multiple hours over Mortal Kombat 2 overnight.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
SHINE GET 64 | Posted 4/17/2009 9:32:12 PM | message detail
aww yeah my brother is going to win the entire contest
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http://cache.gawker.com/assets/images/kotaku/2008/12/dqixworld.JPG
http://www.1pstart.com/wp-content/uploads/2006/12/dragonquest1.jpg
nintendogirl1 | Posted 4/17/2009 9:32:53 PM | message detail

From: SHINE GET 64
aww yeah my brother is going to win the entire contest


SHINE, you never told me your brother was FF7.
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The things you learn.
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 4/17/2009 9:33:02 PM | message detail
...And it looks like SoM is doomed. Ah well, it was a nice pipe dream while it lasted.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/17/2009 9:33:07 PM | message detail
I mean, in this division, the only games that suck are Streets of Rage and Secret of Mana.

Division 4 just has Earthbound, RE1/2 that suck (maybe Lufia, I've never played it but it looks like garbage).
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 4/17/2009 9:33:23 PM | message detail
There ain't no gettin' offa this SHINE's brother we're on!
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http://i77.photobucket.com/albums/j69/War13104/CenaJFrog.gif
hey look i'm war and i'm stupid - WVI
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/17/2009 9:34:53 PM | message detail
(maybe Lufia, I've never played it but it looks like garbage).

Thems fighting words, pal.
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http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/voteps4plz.jpg
SHINE GET 64 | Posted 4/17/2009 9:35:21 PM | message detail
he's obviously better at making brackets than anyone in this topic

obviously
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http://cache.gawker.com/assets/images/kotaku/2008/12/dqixworld.JPG
http://www.1pstart.com/wp-content/uploads/2006/12/dragonquest1.jpg
ZFS | Posted 4/17/2009 9:35:44 PM | message detail
Looks like this is gonna end up like expected.

Bring on the 3D games

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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/17/2009 9:36:38 PM | message detail
12:30 percentage updates:

S2 on MK2: 55.14%
S2 on SoM: 60.77%
S2 on SF2: 86.31%
MK2 on SoM: 55.76%
MK2 on SF2: 83.68%
SoM on SF2: 80.27%

Some 2004 matches for reference:
Sonic 2 on Shining Force: 80.71%
Final Fantasy 6 on Mortal Kombat: 73.08%
Chrono Trigger on Secret of Mana: 79.39%
Super Mario World on Sonic 2: 70.57%
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http://gamebros.smackjeeves.com/
http://l33trappacat.smackjeeves.com/
Big Bob | Posted 4/17/2009 9:37:00 PM | message detail
I swear people were laughing at me when I said I took Link's Awakening to get to round 3.
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Just say the word and it's bear time!
http://backloggery.com/main.php?user=big_bob
spikevegeta | Posted 4/17/2009 9:37:33 PM | message detail
Darn, I finally get on the leaderboard for the first time ever, and chances are my Sonic 2>Secret of Mana pick will knock me right off. I figured Secret of Mana would get a much stronger square vote, but I guess not.
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/17/2009 9:37:35 PM | message detail
LOL Sonic 2 is weak as hell.

Sonic 2 will rock the European vote as expected and the other 3 games should have a horrible ASV, which will help Sonic 2 blast up in percentage during the ASV. I'm still liking at least 41% or higher for Sonic 2. He's just having a bad start.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/17/2009 9:38:14 PM | message detail
sonic 2 is actually doing better against SHF here then in 2004, even though its bombing?
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http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/voteps4plz.jpg
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/17/2009 9:38:46 PM | message detail

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #012
I mean, in this division, the only games that suck are Streets of Rage and Secret of Mana.

Division 4 just has Earthbound, RE1/2 that suck (maybe Lufia, I've never played it but it looks like garbage).


You forgot Sonic 2 and 3, Donkey Kong Country 1, Streets of Rage 2, Phantasy Star 4, Mortal Kombat 2, and that's just from this division.
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http://l33trappacat.smackjeeves.com/
red sox 777 | Posted 4/17/2009 9:39:21 PM | message detail
Shining Force is also very close to doing worse against Secret of Mana here than it did against Sonic 2 back in 2004.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/17/2009 9:39:29 PM | message detail
Oh, you didn't forget SoR2. My bad.
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http://gamebros.smackjeeves.com/
http://l33trappacat.smackjeeves.com/
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/17/2009 9:41:17 PM | message detail
Hahaha, Sonic stalled again.

This never gets old.
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http://l33trappacat.smackjeeves.com/
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/17/2009 9:43:18 PM | message detail
Sonic 1 got 55.52% on Street Fighter 2.

This could very well mean that Mortal Kombat 2 is stronger than Street Fighter 2.

This contest keeps geting better and better.
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http://gamebros.smackjeeves.com/
http://l33trappacat.smackjeeves.com/
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/17/2009 9:44:58 PM | message detail
Hahaha, Sonic stalled again.

There should be more stalls later in the night as MK2 should have a good night vote.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/17/2009 9:46:16 PM | message detail
Hahaha, and then next update SoM stalls MK2.

MK2 can't make up its mind which game it wants to have a match with!
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http://l33trappacat.smackjeeves.com/
Lucid Faia | Posted 4/17/2009 9:46:30 PM | message detail
Test your might
Test your might
Test your might
Test your might
Mortal Kombat
Fight!

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The Ohio State Buckeyes
2005-2008 Big Ten Champions!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/17/2009 9:46:46 PM | message detail
http://images2.wikia.nocookie.net/board8/images/7/76/Graph2894.png

A reference of trends for Sonic vs. MK
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http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/voteps4plz.jpg
nintendogirl1 | Posted 4/17/2009 9:48:42 PM | message detail

From: MyWorldIsCrono
http://images2.wikia.nocookie.net/board8/images/7/76/Graph2894.png

A reference of trends for Sonic vs. MK


I think I spot Europ cutting in!
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Maybe. If I squint.
red sox 777 | Posted 4/17/2009 9:49:18 PM | message detail
Nice to see SoM get a stall there. How long until it gets a cut? I'll guess....within another 50 minutes.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
PegasusLover123 | Posted 4/17/2009 9:53:42 PM | message detail
As much as I like Secret of Mana i'm certain it won't survive in this match because of MK and Sonic 2 (One of the better Sonic games i'd say).

If Sonic 2 were to fall in this round my jaw would likely drop all the way to the other end of the world.
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"If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh." -Magus
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/17/2009 10:03:59 PM | message detail
And Sonic just keeps bleeding here...

Looks like Sonic will be keeping this up until the Europeans start waking up.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/17/2009 10:06:46 PM | message detail
now that the mortal kombat power hour is over, lets do this secret of mana
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http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/voteps4plz.jpg
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/17/2009 10:07:20 PM | message detail

From: M_e_g_a_6_4 | #022
You forgot Sonic 2 and 3, Donkey Kong Country 1, Streets of Rage 2, Phantasy Star 4, Mortal Kombat 2, and that's just from this division.


Sonic 2 and 3 were decent, DKC1 was a good game, just so much worse than 2 or 3, I said SoR2, PS4 was awesome compared to the rest of the garbage in that series and MK2 was fantastic.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
charmander6000 | Posted 4/17/2009 10:08:02 PM | message detail
Sonic 2 is doing terrible here, hopefully it goes up during the night and morning. MKII/SoM are about as far apart as I expected.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: Sonic 2 > Mortal Kombat II Points: 29/44
Gaddswell | Posted 4/17/2009 10:21:58 PM | message detail
There's another pair of SoM / MK2 and MK2 / Sonic 2 stalls in the last two updates!
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http://www.court-records.net/manga/4koma/(eng)4koma2.png
Hail FastFalcon, our new guru overlord!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/17/2009 10:23:03 PM | message detail
Sonic going under 37% next update.
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http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/voteps4plz.jpg
red sox 777 | Posted 4/17/2009 10:23:05 PM | message detail
Secret of Mana has now gained percentage for 7 updates in a row, and Sonic 2 has lost percentage for a staggering 11 updates in a row.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/17/2009 10:26:31 PM | message detail
aww yea mk cut
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http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/voteps4plz.jpg
red sox 777 | Posted 4/17/2009 10:26:58 PM | message detail
And there's Mortal Kombat's first cut on Sonic.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 4/17/2009 10:30:04 PM | message detail
Sonic just doesn't know who he wants to bleed % to more.
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http://i77.photobucket.com/albums/j69/War13104/CenaJFrog.gif
hey look i'm war and i'm stupid - WVI
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/17/2009 10:30:50 PM | message detail
oh snap sonic gained in %!
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http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/voteps4plz.jpg
charmander6000 | Posted 4/17/2009 10:30:58 PM | message detail
Sonic 2 has finally woke up.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: Sonic 2 > Mortal Kombat II Points: 29/44
Ins1ghtful | Posted 4/17/2009 10:33:17 PM | message detail
Is Sonic 2 so weak that Link's Awakening can come out on top next round?
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/17/2009 10:35:45 PM | message detail

From: Ins1ghtful | #046
Is Sonic 2 so weak that Link's Awakening can come out on top next round?


I'd be surprised if it doesn't.
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http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/voteps4plz.jpg
Karma Hunter | Posted 4/17/2009 10:35:52 PM | message detail
I very much doubt that Sonic 2 could beat MMX. Unless MK has some strange fanbase overlap with Zelda that I'm not aware of, LA making it to Round 3 should be a lock now.
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
Ins1ghtful | Posted 4/17/2009 10:37:29 PM | message detail
As in, Link's Awakening has a chance of beating FF3? Not sure if you misunderstood me.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/17/2009 10:37:53 PM | message detail
oh, no way
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http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/voteps4plz.jpg