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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 680

Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 4/17/2009 2:07:23 PM | message detail
Oh cmon, 4%?

I doubt Lufia 2 is Tanner/Lucas bad
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/17/2009 2:07:44 PM | message detail

From: Shoenin_Kakashi | #301
Oh cmon, 4%?

I doubt Lufia 2 is Tanner/Lucas bad


Oh, its not. But against 2 SNES rpgs? Its in for a big time beating.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/17/2009 2:09:57 PM | message detail
I can't see YI being stronger than DKC, Mario name or otherwise. YI is about as obscure and 'who cares' as it gets for a Mario/Zelda/FF game.

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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/17/2009 2:14:53 PM | message detail

From: MyWorldIsCrono | #299
Maybe I'm overestimating Yoshis Island, but I can't see any main line Mario game outside of Sunshine and 2 that weak.


Considering it was nowhere near Sunshine in the favorites poll for whatever's worth.

I really have no idea how Yoshi's Island is received besides the list, but at this point, how much is the list worth when it trounces Sonic and nearly beats Super Metroid? YI is going to get casual votes.. it just depends on if those casual votes like it more than Earthbound.
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/17/2009 2:15:55 PM | message detail
Pretty true, though it is SO good. I would love to see it straight-up win the match...but SMW2:YI's more obscure than LoZ:LA and doesn't look to have a true big fanbase here, judging from the old SMB-polls and its place in the Top 100 List (the only Nintendo games it beat was F-Zero and Metroid: Zero Mission). That's what EB's gotta count on if it's going to win.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/17/2009 2:17:01 PM | message detail
What I mean by the list's worth is that Super Mario Kart was ranked pretty low, but still managed to come close to games ranking higher than it... waaaay higher.
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BGE2 - Today: FFVI > MMX - Points: 28/40 Vote: MMX
HaRRicH | Posted 4/17/2009 2:19:03 PM | message detail
I really have no idea how Yoshi's Island is received besides the list, but at this point, how much is the list worth when it trounces Sonic and nearly beats Super Metroid?

SM still won and Sonic 3 wasn't on the Top 100 List, but I feel ya. I'm just saying that's a BIG turn-around for two games with no reason to change due to just the format of asking people what their favorite games are.
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greatone10 | Posted 4/17/2009 2:19:26 PM | message detail
Even if Yoshi's Island is about as obscure and "who cares" as a Mario game can get, it's still not going to have trouble beating Earthbound. Earthbound is fodder, and has never won a match with another Nintendo entrant present. Any fans that would vote Earthbound based off SSB's popularity (the source of about 80% of Ness's votes) would go for Yoshi's Island anyway, and that's assuming they even know what Earthbound is.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/17/2009 2:21:43 PM | message detail
Just a comparison between Super Metroid and Yoshis Island sales:

Yoshi Island sold about 1.5 million in America and Super Metroid sold 500k.
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RockMFR 5 | Posted 4/17/2009 2:22:56 PM | message detail
Earthbound won't even get close to Yoshi's Island. Chrono Trigger > YI is a lock. Probably one of the easiest picks of the whole contest.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/17/2009 2:23:27 PM | message detail

From: RockMFR 5 | #310
Earthbound won't even get close to Yoshi's Island. Chrono Trigger > YI is a lock. Probably one of the easiest picks of the whole contest.


Totally. Only people giving Earthbound a chance are biased Earthbound fans.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/17/2009 2:24:32 PM | message detail
.. I don't even like Earthbound. I actually prefer YI.


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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/17/2009 2:25:47 PM | message detail
Earthbound (2004g) VS Shenmue (2004g)

Earthbound has a strength of 20.32.
Shenmue has a strength of 20.70.

Shenmue wins with 50.92% of the vote!
A win of 1,502 with 81,838 total votes cast.


imho
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/17/2009 2:30:06 PM | message detail
I'll take RBY > LA. All LA has over it is the Zelda name; RBY was a much bigger game in pretty much all respects.

That doesn't seem very fair or accurate. It's like saying all LttP has over RBY is the Zelda name and the fact that it was on a console.
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XxSoulxX | Posted 4/17/2009 2:31:44 PM | message detail
... Are people seriously considering EB over a Mario game?

What the hell people.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/17/2009 2:32:40 PM | message detail
The only Mario game EB has a shot against is Mario 2. And even that would be an upset.
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/17/2009 2:38:57 PM | message detail
EB got pretty much the worst possible bracket placement it could have gotten. It's up against Chrono Trigger, another SNES RPG, and a Mario/Yoshi game.
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alexazx | Posted 4/17/2009 2:49:05 PM | message detail
Yes, it's pretty insane to expect Earthbound to beat Yoshi's Island after what we're seeing happening today, Link's Awakening, a low tier Zelda game, beating one of the most popular Mega Man titles. I can't see Earthbound being even near as popular as Mega Man X. Yoshi's Island will win a lot of votes just by recognition. It may not be one of the best games from that time, but it certainly is one of the most well-known SNES titles. And besides, Earthbound will suffer greatly in Europe, more than Mega Man X did.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/17/2009 2:49:07 PM | message detail
Even if EB was against a game of its same strength, I'd say it didn't have a chance due to Chrono Trigger there. A SNES RPG doesn't need the biggest SNES rpg in the same poll sapping away its votes.
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edwardsdv | Posted 4/17/2009 2:54:13 PM | message detail
I'm an earthbound/mother fanboy and not even I have EB winning,sadly.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/17/2009 3:20:44 PM | message detail
...Jeez guys, EB is at a disadvantage but anyone calling that (or any) match a lock is looking to get bit in the butt.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/17/2009 3:21:11 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #321
...Jeez guys, EB is at a disadvantage but anyone calling that (or any) match a lock is looking to get bit in the butt.


but it is a lock. A mario SNES game against a handicapped EB is as much of a lock as you can get
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/17/2009 3:22:31 PM | message detail
Just like Doom versus an SFFd DKC was a lock, mirite?

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Masato_Tanaka | Posted 4/17/2009 3:22:54 PM | message detail
I'm looking forward to tomorrow's match for some reason. Will Sonic 2 disappoint as much as Sonic 3? Will MKII prove it's worth anything? Let's find out!
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The Straight Up G
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 4/17/2009 3:23:07 PM | message detail
Obviously nothing's a lock, but EB's chances there are pretty damn slim.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/17/2009 3:23:27 PM | message detail
you realize using doom as an example hurts your case, yeah?
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Masato_Tanaka | Posted 4/17/2009 3:24:04 PM | message detail
Just like Doom versus an SFFd DKC was a lock, mirite?

Doom really did deserve that win though. Both games are great, but let's think about it for a second. Which one brought more to the table of it's respective genre? Doom...by a longshot
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/17/2009 3:25:35 PM | message detail
Yoshi's Island has got to be, at best, the sixth strongest Mario title, but we're watching the sixth or seventh strongest Zelda game beat up on the strongest Mega Man game (a game that would trounce Earthbound easily). I'd be shocked to see Earthbound contend, especially with other SNES RPGs in the poll.
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XxSoulxX | Posted 4/17/2009 3:26:47 PM | message detail
...Jeez guys, EB is at a disadvantage but anyone calling that (or any) match a lock is looking to get bit in the butt.

No. Just no. Sorry, but you can chalk up this as another "looking for an upset where there is no chance of any upset" argument. EB is at the worst disadvantage out of every game in this contest. It's getting double SFFed, and has to beat two very mainstream games in doing so. It's just... why even bring this up? Seriously, it's not going to happen.

It's almost as dumb as people saying MKII > Sonic 2 is a possibility.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/17/2009 3:30:31 PM | message detail
CT - 50%
YI - 29%
EB - 21%
Lufia 2 - 0%
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/17/2009 3:30:58 PM | message detail
If Earthbound can't even beat Doom on an rpg/nintendo dominated site, and loses 57-43% to doom... what makes you think it being SFF'd by two SNES rpgs will let it compete with a mario title? Its just something so out there I don't understand.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/17/2009 3:31:14 PM | message detail

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #330
CT - 50%
YI - 29%
EB - 21%
Lufia 2 - 0%


Hey I'm voting for Lufia 2, so it should get at least 1%!
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/17/2009 3:31:37 PM | message detail
Oh, it would be shocking to see EB contend, but I've seen waaaay too many matches people called 'locks' go awry to count EB out yet.

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Mac Arrowny | Posted 4/17/2009 3:31:39 PM | message detail
Going by the Guru picks, Doom vs. DKC was much more debated than Earthbound vs. YI, and for good reason.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/17/2009 3:31:48 PM | message detail
And whatever small percentage Lufia does get will be coming from EB's pile.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 4/17/2009 3:32:32 PM | message detail
And yeah, I don't recall anyone (except maybe Lopen!) saying Doom was a lock in that match.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/17/2009 3:33:27 PM | message detail
Honestly, I could make a better case saying that Phoenix Wright advances then Earthbound.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/17/2009 3:34:17 PM | message detail
If Earthbound can't even beat Doom on an rpg/nintendo dominated site, and loses 57-43% to doom... what makes you think it being SFF'd by two SNES rpgs will let it compete with a mario title? Its just something so out there I don't understand.

EB definitely does better in this format, for one.


And yeah, I don't recall anyone (except maybe Lopen!) saying Doom was a lock in that match.

The entire Analysis Crew had DKC losing by 4% or worse (usually around 7%). That's about as close to a lock as it gets around here.

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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/17/2009 3:34:43 PM | message detail
Honestly, I could make a better case saying that Phoenix Wright advances then Earthbound.

No, you can't. Don't be stupid.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/17/2009 3:35:45 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #339
Honestly, I could make a better case saying that Phoenix Wright advances then Earthbound.

No, you can't. Don't be stupid.


Well, seeing as how Earthboudn has NO case, its not hard to.
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 4/17/2009 3:35:52 PM | message detail
The ONLY way EB can win is if its fanbase has remained static from 2004 until now and they all vote for it. Seriously, if EB can't pull that off, there's no way for it to win, so CT>YI is as close as you can get to "Mortal Lock" before using FPS and graphic adventure games from years ago.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 4/17/2009 3:36:23 PM | message detail
Just because someone predicts a match one way doesn't mean it's a lock. I had Doom getting somewhere around that as well, and no time before or during the match did I think either game was a lock to win.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/17/2009 3:37:24 PM | message detail
Doom was a heavy favorite, but hardly a lock. I see YI > EB as a 10% difference, aka a lock.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/17/2009 3:38:18 PM | message detail
EB definitely does better in this format, for one.

Yeah, Ness taking advantage of triple PS1 SFF to beat Alucard and Liquid Snake was a great example of this.

o wate
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/17/2009 3:39:22 PM | message detail
Post 1 is from someone I've never seen before.
Post 3 is from...Albion.
Post 4 is from...BT.

All are directed at me.

Time to bail on this conversation/topic.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/17/2009 3:39:50 PM | message detail
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Mewtwo_vs_Pac-Man_vs_Ness_vs_Travis_2008
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Big_Boss_vs_Kirby_vs_Jinjo_vs_Lucas_2008

Mother is a monster in this format IMHO
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/17/2009 3:40:29 PM | message detail
Did you seriously just use Lucas

Whose game was never released here

Just...just shut up.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/17/2009 3:41:05 PM | message detail
Also check prediction precentage for both of those matches. They performed about 10% under prediction

People always overestimate Earthbound/Mother in these things.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/17/2009 3:41:19 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #347
Did you seriously just use Lucas

Whose game was never released here

Just...just shut up.


He actually did better in America then Asia.
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/17/2009 3:46:59 PM | message detail
Earthbound won't win the Smash fanbase over Yoshi's Island, and it won't be winning the SNES RPG fanbase over CT. It has less chance of placing there than WoW has of winning the contest. No, it's not a 0% chance because this is a 4-way games contest after 5 years and we've never seen Yoshi's Island before.
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