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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 680

PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/16/2009 9:41:33 PM | message detail
He WOULDN'T have beaten Link if it weren't for that blasted Wind Waker picture DAMN 2003
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General_Zimbad | Posted 4/16/2009 9:41:43 PM | message detail
hmm, MMX just went back down again :D
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/16/2009 9:41:46 PM | message detail
If MMX could build a decent lead it could probably weather the day vote, especially after LTTP's pitiful ASV yesterday.

I just don't think it builds a lead. Or lead.

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red sox 777 | Posted 4/16/2009 9:41:57 PM | message detail
....I think LA might be able to get some cuts on FFVI during the ASV tomorrow.
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ZFS | Posted 4/16/2009 9:42:42 PM | message detail
wind waker pic gave him a boost without he loses 60/40 book it

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red sox 777 | Posted 4/16/2009 9:43:13 PM | message detail
I'd be fairly confident in saying MMX doesn't win any hours at all, except maybe the last 2.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/16/2009 9:43:50 PM | message detail
Ugh, tomorrow's match is gonna be such a snoozefest. I'll sit through it gladly to watch RE2 take center stage, though.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/16/2009 9:44:02 PM | message detail
Yesterday's chart:

Time | DKC | Doom | S. of Rage II | LOZ: LTTP | Demographic
EBV | 21.90% | 19.13% | 7.14% | 51.84% | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 20.40% | 18.19% | 7.59% | 53.81% | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 17.84% | 18.02% | 8.85% | 55.30% | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 16.64% | 19.31% | 9.05% | 54.99% | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 17.26% | 17.41% | 8.80% | 56.53% | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 18.56% | 16.82% | 7.50% | 57.12% | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 17.47% | 16.38% | 7.24% | 58.91% | (22:00-24:00)

DKC with the board vote and the Power Hour, but it really fell off at night and especially in the morning vote. Doom does best with the morning vote as does Streets of Rage, for whatever the reason. LTTP basically goes up all day.

And I'll be glad when we get past the games that can't get 10% in a poll with 4 games! Whoo, 128 games means more participants! Which basically means we get 64 extra games that can't break 10%!
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/16/2009 9:44:15 PM | message detail
MMX will be making solid cuts through the night, maybe taking the lead, but once again Europe ruins it for everyone. I think we should base all contest winners on their performances in South America.
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/16/2009 9:44:56 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #107
Ugh, tomorrow's match is gonna be such a snoozefest. I'll sit through it gladly to watch RE2 take center stage, though.


Knowing this contest, it'll be yet another close match between MK2 and SoM.

Or one of them will fight Sonic 2 for first!
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/16/2009 9:45:50 PM | message detail
Secret of Mana will be too busy trying to break 10% to be a factor in that match. I'd take Shining Force over it if Sonic 2 wasn't there.
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/16/2009 9:46:03 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #108
And I'll be glad when we get past the games that can't get 10% in a poll with 4 games! Whoo, 128 games means more participants! Which basically means we get 64 extra games that can't break 10%!


It's fun watching Sega fanboys weep as their beloved games fail to crack 10% or even 5% in most cases!
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/16/2009 9:46:58 PM | message detail

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #111
Secret of Mana will be too busy trying to break 10% to be a factor in that match


Now you're just being ridiculous. Bet your account on it this time!
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/16/2009 9:47:05 PM | message detail

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #111
Secret of Mana will be too busy trying to break 10% to be a factor in that match. I'd take Shining Force over it if Sonic 2 wasn't there.


Considering SoM cracked 20% on Chrono ****ing Trigger, 10% should be a breeze. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised to see it hit 20% in tomorrow's match.
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Gr8CyberMonkey | Posted 4/16/2009 9:47:23 PM | message detail
Turtle would like George Will's new Eurobashing article in this week's Newsweek.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/16/2009 9:47:24 PM | message detail
He WOULDN'T have beaten Link if it weren't for that blasted Wind Waker picture

Oh right, there WAS plenty of whining about this more than the actual result.

And LTTP's bad ASV? Look at the chart I just posted!

Oh right, yesterday's stats:

Link to the Past – 50.00%
Donkey Kong Country – 24.26%
Doom – 23.77%
Streets of Rage II – 12.74%

So doesn't Doom do about as expected on LTTP here? Which means that DKC's got a fighting chance if it can put up this percentage on LTTP again! Watch out, Super Metroid!
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RPGuy96 | Posted 4/16/2009 9:48:19 PM | message detail
Just wait for that epic Secret of Mana upset!

And I'm very saddened by FFVI's performance. It's managing to go down in what is generally Kefka's best time, and it has the day vote to look forward to.

(And I even like Link's Awakening! I wanted FFVI to get one good blowout in since it has such a crappy path and is going to get hit hard in the FFVII/CT/LttP/FFVI match.)
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/16/2009 9:48:31 PM | message detail
Yeah, LTTP's opponents were Doom and Donkey Kong Country. Color me unimpressed.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/16/2009 9:48:56 PM | message detail
FFVI under 38% now.

...Maybe it won't reach 40%.
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/16/2009 9:49:21 PM | message detail
Yeah, FFVI isn't rising here......unlike CT, it has ALL night to rise though, so it should still end up higher than it is now.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/16/2009 9:49:36 PM | message detail
Are you kidding? At this rate FFVI is lucky if it stays above 38%.

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alexazx | Posted 4/16/2009 9:50:14 PM | message detail
This is over! Mega Man is weak in EU, and if the NA people prefer Link's Awakening over Mega Man X, we will see a brutal 10 hours for Mega Man, starting in about 4 hours. EU was able to boost Doom into lead yesterday, until the NA voters brought it down again, and the same thing happened with Mario Kart. This time, we will see the opposite, MMX bombing even further down.
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/16/2009 9:50:49 PM | message detail
Yeah, LTTP's opponents were Doom and Donkey Kong Country. Color me unimpressed.

Hey, Doom was the one who didn't do anything during the ASV! For some reason, DKC decided to go up!

And what else do you want LTTP to do besides jump up from 55% to 57% from morning to ASV!
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/16/2009 9:51:09 PM | message detail
Everyone falls in favor of ****ing Phantasy Star 4?

Albion!
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/16/2009 9:51:28 PM | message detail
What the heck, PSIV

*looks at Albion*
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ZFS | Posted 4/16/2009 9:51:32 PM | message detail
This isn't as doom-and-gloom as some people are making it out to be, but it's a disappointing showing for FFVI right now. Maybe it'll rise throughout the night to get back to expectations, at or slightly over 40% would be good for it. Can't imagine it's at 2004 levels, which is no surprise, but yeah. If there's one thing to take from this (and no, it's not FFVII vs. OoT related) it's Trigger probably hasn't fared much better in the past five years.

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red sox 777 | Posted 4/16/2009 9:51:58 PM | message detail
Yeah, LTTP's opponents were Doom and Donkey Kong Country. Color me unimpressed.

Those games ought to have equal or better ASVs than LTTP's last opponent, Chrono Trigger, 2004 trends or not. Also, Mario 1 barely budged upward with the ASV too....less than LTTP did. Mario 3 did gain all day, and it was a weekend....not sure how it would have done on a weekday.
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/16/2009 9:53:51 PM | message detail
Can't imagine it's at 2004 levels, which is no surprise, but yeah. If there's one thing to take from this (and no, it's not FFVII vs. OoT related) it's Trigger probably hasn't fared much better in the past five years.

True, I think we knew as much from watching CT's characters. But I'm counting on CTDS to save the day and nullify that decline!
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/16/2009 9:53:53 PM | message detail

From: ZFS | #126
This isn't as doom-and-gloom as some people are making it out to be, but it's a disappointing showing for FFVI right now. Maybe it'll rise throughout the night to get back to expectations, at or slightly over 40% would be good for it. Can't imagine it's at 2004 levels, which is no surprise, but yeah. If there's one thing to take from this (and no, it's not FFVII vs. OoT related) it's Trigger probably hasn't fared much better in the past five years.


Agreed, although that DS port might help it a bit. I actually really, really wanted to to have Symphony of the Night oust Mario 64 in Round 2 just so I could have Goldeneye knock out Chrono Trigger in the next round. I was really gunning for a CT upset, but in the end, I decided it wasn't worth throwing my bracket away just to pull one out of thin air.
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/16/2009 9:54:31 PM | message detail
It's really hard to tell whether FF6 is doing bad or not considering we have no point of reference for both MMX and LA. The only thing we really have to compare with is FF6 blowing PS4 out, but even then, basing a game's strength on pure fodder isn't a good base line.

We're not gonna get a good read on FF6 until Round 2, and even then that might be iffy if MK2 doesn't advance and we're left with LA SFFing Sonic 2 and FF6 SFFing SoM.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/16/2009 9:55:56 PM | message detail
But I think we can all agree on one thing:

Sonic 2? Toast.

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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/16/2009 9:56:17 PM | message detail
My opinion though is that FF6 is doing fine and that MMX and LA are just both strong games.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/16/2009 9:57:07 PM | message detail
Agreed, although that DS port might help it a bit. I actually really, really wanted to to have Symphony of the Night oust Mario 64 in Round 2 just so I could have Goldeneye knock out Chrono Trigger in the next round.

Whoo, I have SOTN > Mario 64 in round 2, but even I'm not crazy enough to think GoldenEye is going to beat CT! If you think SOTN is equal to Mario World straight up, be my guest!
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/16/2009 9:57:38 PM | message detail
But I think we can all agree on one thing:

Sonic 2? TOASTY!


Fixed.
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/16/2009 9:58:11 PM | message detail
Here's a funny thought. If we replaced MMX with more Sega fodder, would LA actually have a crack at beating FF6 because of removing potential LFF? Probably not, but an interesting thought.

Too bad we won't get to test that out unless MK2 and SoM somehow manage to both beat Sonic 2!
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MyWorldIsSega | Posted 4/16/2009 9:58:43 PM | message detail
Yes, I'd like my Sonic 2 with butter and OJ.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/16/2009 9:58:56 PM | message detail
Sonic 2 never had a chance to get to round 3. MMX and LA would have had to completely bomb for me to take that one.
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/16/2009 10:01:10 PM | message detail
FFVI looks very good to beat LTTP in round 3 now, with 2 Nintendo games there, including a Zelda game.
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ZFS | Posted 4/16/2009 10:01:44 PM | message detail
Yeah, it's tough to really say how much of this is FFVI and how much is LA/MMX being strong. The other Mega Man games would say MMX shouldn't be worth too much, but I could buy it being significantly stronger than them, if only because it's the Mega Man game of the generation most remember games from. Tough to say, though, but FFVI's taken a hit either way. How much is something we'll have to see.

But -- FFVII > FFX > FFVIII > FFVI let's do this !

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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/16/2009 10:02:22 PM | message detail
FFVI looks good? It's beating LA by only 8% and this makes it look good against LTTP?

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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/16/2009 10:03:05 PM | message detail
The sad thing is that MMX is basically proving it's the strongest Mega Man game and yet it's the only one of the three that won't advance to round 2.

darn you early divisions
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ZFS | Posted 4/16/2009 10:03:42 PM | message detail
Hey, there's a nice rebound for FFVI. Needs to keep that up.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/16/2009 10:03:54 PM | message detail
FFVI looks good? It's beating LA by only 8% and this makes it look good against LTTP?

No, Link's Awakening and Super Metroid/Mario Kart/DKC make it look good against LTTP!

Seriously, if it can't win with that setup, I don't know what to say!
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/16/2009 10:04:22 PM | message detail
I already said that in Post 5 of this topic!

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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/16/2009 10:04:45 PM | message detail
Let's do some 1AM percentages before I go to bed.

FF6 on LA: 55.57%
FF6 on MMX: 58.75%
FF6 on PS4: 89.63%
LA on MMX: 53.24%
LA on PS4: 87.36%
MMX on PS4: 85.86%

For the record, Super Metroid got 83.29% on PS4. Nice showing by all three games here.
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RockMFR 5 | Posted 4/16/2009 10:05:51 PM | message detail
cut? booooooo
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/16/2009 10:05:56 PM | message detail
People talk about LA's board vote, but it ends the Power Hour with the same percentage it ended the board vote with!
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/16/2009 10:06:24 PM | message detail
First cut, though that was all LA sucking.
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Yesmar | Posted 4/16/2009 10:06:29 PM | message detail
For the record, Super Metroid got 83.29% on PS4. Nice showing by all three games here.

On what level is using Phantasy Star IV good ground to judge things on?
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redrocket | Posted 4/16/2009 10:06:57 PM | message detail
Looks like the power hour is over.

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