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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 680

UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/16/2009 8:38:57 PM | message detail
Pedo Bear, thy name is Moogle.



~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it.

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Devil May Cry 2
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/16/2009 8:41:01 PM | message detail
Is it safe to come out yet?

Moogle touched me in a bad place!

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 4/16/2009 9:12:42 PM | message detail
19 people fell off the Top 50 today. stevieboyc, TGG86, somberfox, ThisIsU, IanGriggSpall, Henry2903, alimawson, kinkyminkey, Parapsyche, ShadowHog, Dr_Corndog, KalirSavant, no1yoshichaofan, Hinky_P, para_medic, spiderpete, Raynor7, Sidaine and brittle_bullet did not have aLttp > DKC as yesterday's winners.

3 people scored half points and survived. Former first place lennartfraikin, Arthy and Starman0 also did not have aLttp > DKC as yesterday's winners.
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Shall I take you with me? To the place in this town where wishes come true...
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/16/2009 9:13:30 PM | message detail
Oh Link, you magnificent bastard.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/16/2009 9:13:34 PM | message detail
Normally I would call this in LA's favor easily...

But did you SEE that early vote for LA? Definitely not any Zelda trends I know.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/16/2009 9:13:52 PM | message detail
I blame Mog for FFVI's performance and see this as an indication that he shouldn't ever get into a contest! If it were Shadow, FFVI would have 50%!
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 4/16/2009 9:13:52 PM | message detail
Link's Awakening = joke game
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I'm gonna keep on going, I know I'll be strong.
http://i195.photobucket.com/albums/z114/Javer8000/FanimeCon2008/Sandbag.jpg
ZenOfThunder | Posted 4/16/2009 9:14:37 PM | message detail
Thunderous Zen (12:04:13 AM): obviously my ART is cyphering away votes from the others!
Thunderous Zen (12:04:27 AM): people go to the main page
Thunderous Zen (12:04:28 AM): and say
Thunderous Zen (12:04:34 AM): "hey is link IN THE MOUNTAIN?"
Thunderous Zen (12:04:38 AM): and they can't resist voting LA
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. /|_|\ http://imgcake.com/img/40/all_eba.jpg
greatone10 | Posted 4/16/2009 9:14:46 PM | message detail
LA > FF6, now that would turn my bracket upside down.
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Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09.
vs. Super Mario RPG, Goldeneye, Resident Evil 2. Ugh, my top 3 games in the same match.
Master Moltar | Posted 4/16/2009 9:15:13 PM | message detail
there ya go ff6
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Moltar Status: you can't hide forever
Match 11 - Bracket: FF6 > MMX - Vote: MMX (30/40)
plasmabeam | Posted 4/16/2009 9:15:35 PM | message detail
Still, what is this? FFVIII > FFVI confirmed

Squall always tends to do better when I pick against him, and I have FF8 not making it past round 2, so... FF8 > MGS, baby!!

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~Jacksonville Jaguars~
charmander6000 | Posted 4/16/2009 9:15:46 PM | message detail
looks like Zelda has this
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVI > MMX Points: 27/40
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 4/16/2009 9:15:49 PM | message detail
lol MMX
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No matter what, no matter how, I know I'll make it through somehow.
http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b146/KleenexTissue501/Saturn.gif
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/16/2009 9:15:53 PM | message detail
wow... big update for zelda

I think this is done
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http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/voteps4plz.jpg
Gaddswell | Posted 4/16/2009 9:15:55 PM | message detail
Time to call the match!
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http://www.court-records.net/manga/4koma/(eng)4koma2.png
Hail FastFalcon, our guru overlord!
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/16/2009 9:15:55 PM | message detail
Match?
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http://l33trappacat.smackjeeves.com/
WarThaHedgehog | Posted 4/16/2009 9:16:14 PM | message detail
Bye X.
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/16/2009 9:16:35 PM | message detail
At least I'll have one match right in this division!
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http://l33trappacat.smackjeeves.com/
ZFS | Posted 4/16/2009 9:16:54 PM | message detail
There we go. FFVI will probably end this somewhere in the low-to-mid 40s I'd say -- nothing higher than 45% -- which will be a decent recovery, makes it look better than it did during the board vote, anyway. That's something a little more believable, just that LA happened to do better than most expected.

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/16/2009 9:17:28 PM | message detail
I'll wait for a few more updates, but I think it's looking like at least seven Zelda games beat anything from the Mega Man or Sonic series.
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Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
KrahenProphet | Posted 4/16/2009 9:17:36 PM | message detail
Link's Awakening = joke game

= my favorite Zelda >_>
red sox 777 | Posted 4/16/2009 9:18:45 PM | message detail
Up 80? Game, set, match. I'm not sure what the expectations were for FFVI, but it makes sense that it'd be closer to SMW than SMB3 now. And FFVI still has plenty of time to rise enough to look stronger than SMW.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 4/16/2009 9:18:47 PM | message detail
So, next games contest what say we rally for Phantom Hourglass or Minish Cap, just to see what happens?
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No matter what, no matter how, I know I'll make it through somehow.
http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b146/KleenexTissue501/Saturn.gif
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/16/2009 9:18:56 PM | message detail
Link's Awakening is still a third or fourth-tier Zelda games.

This is just what third or fourth-tier Zelda games do, apparently. OoT wins the contest.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/16/2009 9:19:04 PM | message detail
Well, two of my favorite SNES games unexpectedly advance, and now another of my favorite SNES games that I picked to advance won't!

Great day!
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/16/2009 9:19:12 PM | message detail
lol, MMX dropped over 1% there. Of course, Zelda will need to build a big lead as quick as possible since it will suck in the night vote, which is MMX's good time.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
General_Zimbad | Posted 4/16/2009 9:19:19 PM | message detail
lol, you guys always call matches so early. Can you really be sure? I hope your right though.
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These are my friends, I have there backs, they are the closest thing to blood that I have!!!
ZFS | Posted 4/16/2009 9:19:40 PM | message detail
ocarina wins the contest not

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WarThaHedgehog | Posted 4/16/2009 9:20:11 PM | message detail
Man, I'm feeling really glad I took FFVII > Mario 64 in round 3!
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Silverflash-x | Posted 4/16/2009 9:20:27 PM | message detail
I have FF7 > OoT.

Crap, I hate being wrong. T_T
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Q. If your canoe is in a tree with its headlights on, how many pancakes does it take to get to the moon?
A. None. Snakes don't have armpits.
greatone10 | Posted 4/16/2009 9:20:36 PM | message detail
LttP and OoT still SFF each other out of the final match! FF7 > RE4!
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Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09.
vs. Super Mario RPG, Goldeneye, Resident Evil 2. Ugh, my top 3 games in the same match.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/16/2009 9:20:40 PM | message detail

From: General_Zimbad | #027
lol, you guys always call matches so early. Can you really be sure? I hope your right though.


Trends, my friend.
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/16/2009 9:20:43 PM | message detail
We have a tremendous track record going back years of calling matches early and falling flat on our faces. We also have a lot of successes, but no one remembers those, because those matches are the ones that weren't close.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/16/2009 9:20:51 PM | message detail
The most amusing part so far is PS4 dropping like a rock.

By 12:30 it'll be below 4%.
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http://l33trappacat.smackjeeves.com/
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/16/2009 9:21:12 PM | message detail
How is PS4 still falling! It'll be below 4% at this rate!
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http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/voteps4plz.jpg
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/16/2009 9:21:29 PM | message detail
Link's Awakening is still a third or fourth-tier Zelda games.

This is just what third or fourth-tier Zelda games do, apparently. OoT wins the contest.


Majora's Mask > R/B/Y!

Also, don't count out FFVII on the basis of FFVI! FFVII has ALWAYS been a completely different beast and is always strong on this site, regardless of how Nintendo oriented it is. Remember 2005? When Nintendo beat Square in every matchup except two: Tifa/Luigi and Sephiroth/Mario.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/16/2009 9:21:33 PM | message detail
Hey, look! A stall!

*SPOILERS FOR THIS MATCH*





MMX=Doom
LA=Donkey Kong Country







*END SPOILERS*

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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/16/2009 9:21:53 PM | message detail
The most amusing part so far is PS4 dropping like a rock.

By 12:30 it'll be below 4%.


It might even end up with the lowest percentage in a 4-way.

And wow, epic MMX stall.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
eaglesarebeasts | Posted 4/16/2009 9:21:53 PM | message detail
MWC has good taste in games
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/16/2009 9:22:04 PM | message detail
So, next games contest what say we rally for Phantom Hourglass or Minish Cap, just to see what happens?

I don't think anything will come of it. LA is the OoT of hand held Zelda games. Heck, it might be even stronger than that (relative to its younger hand held brothers).
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/16/2009 9:22:20 PM | message detail
R/B/Y still has a shot there, but MM probably wins now, yeah.

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Starion | Posted 4/16/2009 9:22:32 PM | message detail
I can't remember. Does Megaman suck or do well during the day?
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/16/2009 9:22:49 PM | message detail
Also, FFVI is going up at MMX's expense while LA is staying put. FFVI looks like it should get above 40% or so by the end, but this is still pretty sad.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
greatone10 | Posted 4/16/2009 9:23:06 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | Posted: 4/16/2009 9:21:29 PM | #036
Majora's Mask > R/B/Y!


Mega Man X is not even in RBY's league. That being said, no Zelda success could shock me at this point.
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Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09.
vs. Super Mario RPG, Goldeneye, Resident Evil 2. Ugh, my top 3 games in the same match.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/16/2009 9:23:40 PM | message detail

From: greatone10 | #044
Mega Man X is not even in RBY's league.


I wouldn't be too sure about that just yet.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: FFVI > MMX - Points: 28/40 Vote: MMX
Megaman703 | Posted 4/16/2009 9:23:44 PM | message detail
MM> MGS upset train, who's ridin'?

choo choo
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"In the game of chess you can never let your opponent see your pieces."
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/16/2009 9:23:47 PM | message detail
FF6 is currently getting 90.15% on PS4.

Here's to this number increasing even further!
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/16/2009 9:24:21 PM | message detail
Uhhh guys, I don't know if you just hate Link's Awakening or what, but I really think there's more to that game than just the franchise name. This doesn't suggest that "OoT wins" (or even has a better chance than it did a day ago) at all.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/16/2009 9:24:43 PM | message detail
FFVI looks like it should get above 40% or so by the end, but this is still pretty sad.

This is what happens during the board vote when the obvious first place game is abandoned to support 1 or 2 other games that might get second. FFVI simply got a bad start due to all of the MMX and LA voters.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/16/2009 9:24:53 PM | message detail
I don't hate LA, I'm just realistic.

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