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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 679

UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/16/2009 1:49:28 PM | message detail
OH MY GOD A NINE VOTE LEAD IT IS ALL OVER FOLKS THROW IN THE TOWEL

Actually it probably is, but so what.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Devil May Cry 2
The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/16/2009 1:50:01 PM | message detail
more like 21 vote lead mirite
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/16/2009 1:50:16 PM | message detail
O MANZ
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Devil May Cry 2
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/16/2009 1:50:25 PM | message detail
this is dk. it'll probably choke away the lead, but then win it in the end
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Starman0 | Posted 4/16/2009 1:54:32 PM | message detail
Did I just see Doom cut the lead by 4?
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/16/2009 1:55:40 PM | message detail
yes
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jonthomson | Posted 4/16/2009 1:56:29 PM | message detail
ffs doom pull through
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Super Metroid's Path To Glory: R1 vs. Sonic 3, Gunstar Heroes, Super Mario Kart
RockMFR 5 | Posted 4/16/2009 1:59:28 PM | message detail
argh
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/16/2009 1:59:35 PM | message detail
doom is like "lol just kidding guys about losing"
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trannyscience | Posted 4/16/2009 1:59:51 PM | message detail
this is an extreeeeeeeemely slight ASV advantage for DKC. DKC won that hour by a whopping 46 votes. Doom could take this back with the night vote if this kind of thing keeps up. advantage to DKC though, no doubt.

Zelda is just sucking with this ASV. Zelda used to own this time but apparently it's differently for the games.
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xyzzy
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deadeyedllv | Posted 4/16/2009 2:02:34 PM | message detail
Would tonight's night vote be different than last night's though? Cause I thought DKC handily won last nights "night vote".
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You can't run away from trouble, there ain't no place that far.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/16/2009 2:03:38 PM | message detail
he didnt win the dead hours.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: LTTP > Doom - Points: 26/36 Vote: DKC!
Starman0 | Posted 4/16/2009 2:04:00 PM | message detail
DKC was winning mostly because of Board 8's participation in the match.

The midnight vote is nothing close to the actual night vote.
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trannyscience | Posted 4/16/2009 2:05:16 PM | message detail
yeah, the early vote is like a delayed day vote. it usually goes along with how the day would vote, though there are exceptions.

once you got away from the first hour, Doom consistently won updates, and once you get into the deep night Doom took over.
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xyzzy
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/16/2009 2:05:20 PM | message detail
And DK rebounds...

We could be at this for a while.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/16/2009 2:08:15 PM | message detail
board 8 shouldnt bother "rallying" for dk yet imho
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Guess how many teens | Posted 4/16/2009 2:08:39 PM | message detail
ISn't doom the B8 favorite?
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/16/2009 2:09:59 PM | message detail
Yeah I thought so but people said earlier that b8 will rally for dkc over doom.
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FastFalcon05 | Posted 4/16/2009 2:11:49 PM | message detail
I know the format is to blame for a lack of excitement, but is there any other reason close matches don't seem interesting anymore? If this were a 1v1 match in 2004, this topic would fill up five times over.

Personally, I blame T3H TRENDS and people being able to call final voting margins with stunning accuracy hours in advance. I miss pre-stats, pre-trend days where you just cheered for your pick and had no real clue what was going to happen next =/


Well, I personally think it's more the format than the overaccumulation of our stats. Because even back in the hay-day (hey-day?) of the epic Mario/Crono, we still had the most important data in our hands, and that still remains the day/night shift. Nothing drives matches more than that, and we've known this all along.

The format though really kills the enthusiasm, because we have a really close match here, but ultimately it's being waged on the frontier of "Who's going to get 2nd." First place, the most important one, is a complete lock and usually isn't in doubt.

It would probably be cool if we could have a 1 vs 1 contest again with 15 minute updates or 10 minute updates - I wonder if that would change anything...
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Starman0 | Posted 4/16/2009 2:27:36 PM | message detail
The hell's going on?
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/16/2009 2:29:56 PM | message detail
Vicious pair of updates. This will take some chokejob.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/16/2009 2:31:41 PM | message detail
yeah this is over
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/16/2009 2:35:10 PM | message detail
As much as I hate to say it, DK isn't exactly winning the ASV convincingly, but that could easily be ruled to it being weak this week.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: LTTP > Doom - Points: 26/36 Vote: DKC!
RPGuy96 | Posted 4/16/2009 2:41:59 PM | message detail
The big (and little) ape has swung 250 votes in 2.5 hours, that's not so bad. It didn't exactly need to win convincingly.

So, next round: LttP/DKC/SM/SMK. We know SM/SMK are practically even and DKC is getting more or less what Super Metroid got on LttP in 2004. I think a three way battle for second would be a first in fourways.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/16/2009 2:43:16 PM | message detail
I think a three way battle for second would be a first in fourways.

hogger/laharl/ramza

all finished within 400 of eachother iirc
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/16/2009 2:43:25 PM | message detail
Ramza/Laharl/Hogger .. i think, anyway.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: LTTP > Doom - Points: 26/36 Vote: DKC!
RPGuy96 | Posted 4/16/2009 2:43:57 PM | message detail
Hm, you're right. Forgot about that.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/16/2009 2:44:57 PM | message detail
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kmiqJxXMNLA


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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: LTTP > Doom - Points: 26/36 Vote: DKC!
trannyscience | Posted 4/16/2009 2:48:09 PM | message detail
I'd be more embarrassed about remembering Ramza/Laharl/Hogger, honestly.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/16/2009 2:48:46 PM | message detail
Well of course I'd remember it! Hogger > all
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/16/2009 2:59:19 PM | message detail
Zelda is just sucking with this ASV. Zelda used to own this time but apparently it's differently for the games.

Aside from second place being debateable obviously hurting Zelda, this is LttP we're talking about, not OoT. It should have trends closer to FF6/CT than OoT.
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deadeyedllv | Posted 4/16/2009 2:59:22 PM | message detail
Ok lets chat about next round. First, lets assume the more likely situation that DKC advances. How does everybody think it will do? I agree with RPGuy that it will be a very close battle for second. I think that is a very hard/impossible match to predict. I might have to give the advantage to SMK mainly because it relies the least on a dedicated fanbase (cough, Metroid).

Now let's assume Doom advances. Does anybody think SFF will play a major role allowing it to easily pass? Before this week I would have said yes. Now I'm not so sure. Next round will be interesting in many matches. I can't wait.
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SonicRaptor | Posted 4/16/2009 3:47:29 PM | message detail

From: deadeyedllv | #282
Ok lets chat about next round. First, lets assume the more likely situation that DKC advances. How does everybody think it will do? I agree with RPGuy that it will be a very close battle for second. I think that is a very hard/impossible match to predict. I might have to give the advantage to SMK mainly because it relies the least on a dedicated fanbase (cough, Metroid).

Now let's assume Doom advances. Does anybody think SFF will play a major role allowing it to easily pass? Before this week I would have said yes. Now I'm not so sure. Next round will be interesting in many matches. I can't wait.


After watching Super Mario Kart and Super Metroid go neck-to-neck, I'm very skeptical on any Nintendo SFF swinging one game down below a non-Nintendo game (this is what Sonic 3 needed to win, have Super Metroid SFF Mario Kart below it to advance...this did not happen).

Of course, this time it's three Nintendo titles with a Zelda one among it...who knows if that changes anything.

DKC is screwed if it joins that pack because a four-pack of only Nintendo games hurts it in unimaginable ways.
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
Master Moltar | Posted 4/16/2009 4:01:32 PM | message detail
Doesn't matter if Doom or DKC advances here, I'm feeling pretty good about Metroid taking second next round.
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Moltar Status: you can't hide forever
Match 10 - Bracket: LttP > Doom - Vote: DKC (28/36)
deadeyedllv | Posted 4/16/2009 4:02:51 PM | message detail
Well this one is over. Next.
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You can't run away from trouble, there ain't no place that far.
SonicRaptor | Posted 4/16/2009 4:04:10 PM | message detail

From: Master Moltar | #284
Doesn't matter if Doom or DKC advances here, I'm feeling pretty good about Metroid taking second next round.


Yeah, thinking about it some more it looks like LTTP > SM is going to happen because I'm just not seeing the Nintendo SFF that everyone was predicting in Round 1.
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
DiorHomme | Posted 4/16/2009 4:13:35 PM | message detail
Bump!
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/16/2009 4:14:41 PM | message detail
This .. doesn't need a bump.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: LTTP > Doom - Points: 26/36 Vote: DKC!
charmander6000 | Posted 4/16/2009 4:21:19 PM | message detail
Looks like DKC has taken this, my favourites bracket is now doing better than my real bracket (it has 26 points today and will get another 4 from this match).
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BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: LttP > Doom Points: 25/36
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/16/2009 5:17:07 PM | message detail
I screwed myself out of the full 4 points today for switching my bracket from LttP > DKC to LttP > Doom.
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/16/2009 5:30:49 PM | message detail
Not much of an ASV today, but DKC won it. Time to call the match for DKC and go get dinner. I'm half expecting Doom to have cut 100 votes off the lead by the time I get back just because I called it.
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/16/2009 5:32:23 PM | message detail
First update I see after calling it over = a 13 vote cut. It's like clockwork.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
deadeyedllv | Posted 4/16/2009 5:35:45 PM | message detail
That's just gonna be a one time thing. I just can't see Doom coming back from this. Even in its best hours last night it didn't have enough momentum to do what it needs to make a 400 vote comeback. Time for the big MMX/LoZ battle for second. The way things have been going the last few days LoZ:LA has to be the favorite.
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You can't run away from trouble, there ain't no place that far.
red sox 777 | Posted 4/16/2009 5:53:26 PM | message detail
Hmm....Doom looks like it's stabilizing. Too bad it needs a lot of rallying to make up this 400 vote gap in the last hour or 2.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
PegasusLover123 | Posted 4/16/2009 5:56:12 PM | message detail
Well it looks like this is one DK game that wont stink out in the first round it seems.
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paulg235 | Posted 4/16/2009 5:59:26 PM | message detail
12 votes per update needed to regain the lead.
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/16/2009 5:59:50 PM | message detail
If DK holds on tonight, maybe he deserves to shed his reputation as a choker, at least as far as games are concerned.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
edwardsdv | Posted 4/16/2009 6:02:37 PM | message detail
I like Links awakening to take the match over MMX. I know its ahandheld game and those generally bomb, but it's the definitive handheld zelda.

Everyone bought Links awakening. A loto f people liked it, including myself. Moreover, it is in alot of ways the spiritual prequel to ocarina so its got some backwards value as well. I expect it to pull second AND to act as a barometer for how well majoras mask will do.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/16/2009 6:08:49 PM | message detail
where the heck is tomorrows pic
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Master Moltar | Posted 4/16/2009 7:00:34 PM | message detail
Division 3: Round 1 - Match 11 – Final Fantasy VI vs. Mega Man X vs. Phantasy Star IV vs. The Legend of Zelda: Link’s Awakening

Moltar’s Analysis

FF6
2004 Results: Won in Round 1 against Mortal Kombat
Won in Round 2 against Doom
Lost in Round 3 against Link to the Past

The strongest “old” Final Fantasy steps up to the plate.

MMX
2004 Results: N/A

Let’s see if adding an X to the end of Mega Man makes a difference.

Phantasy Star IV
Lost in Round 1 against Super Metroid

Phantasy Star gets into the Games Contest again…and it will lose again.

Link’s Awakening
2004 Results: N/A

ZELDA

*We now interrupt this regularly scheduled analysis with something a little more…crazy.*

Previously, Link and his crew were sailing on the Great Sea. Another boat then started to approach them, a boat from the country of Midgar.

A world united,
Becomes divided,
War starts without fail
Now witness the tale
Intermission…

3: Power of Lon Lon

*The Midgar ship fires a cannonball at the King of Red Lions, which barely misses it.*

Deku: They’re attacking us!

Goron: No ****, Sherlock.

Zelda: But why? The lands are all at peace.

Link: We don’t have time to ask questions. Zora, let’s go stop them!

Zora: Right!

*Zora jumps into the water*

Link: Lon Lon…Transform! *Link transforms into a Zora and also jumps into the water.*

*The enemy ship fires a second cannon, this time at Zora and Link. The two narrowly escape the blast.*

???: So that’s the power of the cursed Lon Lon Fruit, transformation. How about another test, ‘Go and Slice, Roku!’

*As Zora and Link head to the other boat, two purple energy attacks shaped like scythes emerge from the top of the boat and travel towards the two.*

Zora: Link, watch out!

*Link jumps up and slices through one of the beams. While in the air, he catches a glimpse at the person on the boat.*

Link: What? It’s her?

Zora: Link, the others!

*Link turns to see the other part of the attack head towards the King of Red Lions.

Tingle: Oh lordy it’s coming for us!

Goron: How about ya’ll stop doing nothing and do something about that purple ****.

*Zelda creates a barrier in front of the boat, which stops the attack.*

???: I see…Locke, we’re retreating. We’ve got everything we needed.

*The Midgar ship starts to turn around and head away.*

Zora: They’re retreating? But why?

Link: What was that all about…that woman on the boat was the Captain of Squad 6, Terra Branford. Why would she attack us?

~*To Be Continued*~

Well, PS4 takes last here obviously. Final Fantasy, Mega Man and Zelda are all big names, PS4 will get its cult votes and that’s it.

The rest of this match is interesting because of Link’s Awakening. Compared to the other Zelda games, it’s on the low-end of the totem pole. However, we’ve never seen what it can do on its own. If you take away other Zelda games, it obviously has to go up. The big question is how high up will it go.

Final Fantasy VI is out of reach. I wouldn’t even dare to put LA’s ceiling that high (even though it actually could be that strong, hell if I know). Still, FF6 came pretty close to LttP, the second strongest Zelda game, so unless LA is some kind of beast, FF6 should have first here without too much problem.

Mega Man X is a different story. LA, being a lower-tier Zelda, is likely to be around its range. We’ve already seen MM2 and MM3 perform, so we have some idea of how MMX will do. MM2 disappointed and MM3 did okay, but still got beat pretty bad by FF4. The one saving grace is that going by series polls; MMX should be stronger than the original series, but who knows for sure.