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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 678

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Gaddswell | Posted 4/15/2009 9:46:01 PM | message detail

DOOM CUT!
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RPGuy96 | Posted 4/15/2009 9:46:10 PM | message detail

What were people expecting for LttP? My Oracle was 56% originally, bumped up to 58% because I've been overestimating weak games (I had SoR at 10% and went down to 6%). It seems like it's going to fall into that range...were we supposed to be expecting 60%+ here?
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transience | Posted 4/15/2009 9:46:22 PM | message detail

Lopen | Posted 4/15/2009 9:46:25 PM | message detail

Here we go

Time to start DOOMsaying DKC here !!
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/15/2009 9:46:40 PM | message detail

Doom gets its first cut!

And LTTP appears to be recovering nicely from it's bad start. Perhaps it can still get in the high 50s.
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greatone10 | Posted 4/15/2009 9:47:26 PM | message detail

Yeesh, that took forever. Way to doom my hopes!
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Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09.
vs. Super Mario RPG, Goldeneye, Resident Evil 2. Ugh, my top 3 games in the same match.

MnMZero | Posted 4/15/2009 9:47:28 PM | message detail

Apparently having a modicum of strength. Friggin' DK.

DKC, the one thing actually liked solely related to DK.
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/15/2009 9:48:27 PM | message detail

As of 12:45, LttP's scoring 74.75% on Doom, which is already more than what FF6 got on it in 2004. Not to mention DKC being in the poll and all.

I think it's safe to say LttP's doing fine.
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Silverflash-x | Posted 4/15/2009 9:48:29 PM | message detail

...seeing LttP not destroying this match completely, even if it does have more competition, makes me feel stupid for having it in the final match.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/15/2009 9:49:01 PM | message detail

Anyone have numbers/ a graph of DOOM's 2k4 matches?

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red sox 777 | Posted 4/15/2009 9:49:11 PM | message detail

I had LTTP at 58% in the Oracle. If it gets close to that, I can't really call it disappointing, but back when it was around 50-52% it looked like it might not even hit 55%.
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/15/2009 9:50:14 PM | message detail

For reference: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1640
Doom 27.28%

20285
Final Fantasy III (VI) 72.72%

54078
TOTAL VOTES 74363
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greatone10 | Posted 4/15/2009 9:50:57 PM | message detail

Honestly, I think the board has gotten so desensitized to the kind of whoopings LOZ and SMB3 were able to put on the old school rubbish nobody cares about that now LttP getting 50% (and rising) on a fourpack with two games of actual popularity in a close battle for second seems disappointing when it's really not.
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Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09.
vs. Super Mario RPG, Goldeneye, Resident Evil 2. Ugh, my top 3 games in the same match.

KamikazePotato | Posted 4/15/2009 9:51:05 PM | message detail

DOOM looks like it's trying to get back into the game. Just wait for the PH to end...

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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/15/2009 9:51:09 PM | message detail

And Jesus Christ SoR2. Its percentage is going up pretty quickly for a game whose percentage is in single digits.
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greatone10 | Posted 4/15/2009 9:53:05 PM | message detail

Well, DKC just took back everything Doom cut, so I wouldn't say DKC is do--*gets shot*
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Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09.
vs. Super Mario RPG, Goldeneye, Resident Evil 2. Ugh, my top 3 games in the same match.

RPGuy96 | Posted 4/15/2009 9:53:20 PM | message detail

Time | FFVI . . . . | Doom
01:00 | 59.62% | 40.38%
02:00 | 60.42% | 39.58%
03:00 | 64.89% | 35.11%
04:00 | 62.71% | 37.29%
05:00 | 65.04% | 34.96%
06:00 | 60.98% | 39.02%
07:00 | 61.88% | 38.12%
08:00 | 63.57% | 36.43%
09:00 | 60.51% | 39.49%
10:00 | 63.19% | 36.81%
11:00 | 63.89% | 36.11%
12:00 | 58.78% | 41.22%
13:00 | 61.58% | 38.42%
14:00 | 63.29% | 36.71%
15:00 | 60.95% | 39.05%
16:00 | 62.24% | 37.76%
17:00 | 61.66% | 38.34%
18:00 | 61.81% | 38.19%
19:00 | 61.63% | 38.37%
20:00 | 63.47% | 36.53%
21:00 | 67.93% | 32.07%
22:00 | 67.04% | 32.96%
23:00 | 63.97% | 36.03%
00:00 | 64.79% | 35.21%

Remember to add 3 hours to everything (ie, ASV starts at 12; this match was on a Friday in May).
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Ngamer64 | Posted 4/15/2009 9:53:41 PM | message detail

Doom vs FF6 graph:

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=1640&type=2&seconds=900

Hardly any trends at all in that match, it seems.

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transience | Posted 4/15/2009 9:54:14 PM | message detail

wait, how did FF6 get 70% when those updates are in the 50s and 60s?
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/15/2009 9:54:44 PM | message detail

LTTP is doing fine relative to Doom. It's just that DKC is doing really well....still better than Super Metroid's 26% against LTTP at this point. Maybe that was a bad assumption, but I had trouble fathoming DKC being as strong as, or standing up to SFF as well as, Super Metroid.
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LinkLegend27 | Posted 4/15/2009 9:54:48 PM | message detail

Is FF6 the one with Kefka in it?
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transience | Posted 4/15/2009 9:55:14 PM | message detail

I'd expect Doom to have Duke Nukem-ish trends. good night vote, average day vote.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/15/2009 9:55:31 PM | message detail

And seriously, people are doomsaying LttP at this point? It's definitely on the track to 55% and maybe even 60%, and it's not like DKC and Doom are mere fodder. It just had a horrible board vote that it's slowly recovering from. Still a bit early to say it's screwed just yet.

I thought it would outdo NES Zelda's percentage, though. I guess we can argue that DKC was a wildcard, but both their three opponents looked pretty similar, and LttP is obviously the stronger Zelda, so yeah, this is still very disappointing from where I stand. Not that it means anything, though; LttP can still come back from this and finish ahead of FFVII. Yes, seriously.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 4/15/2009 9:55:33 PM | message detail

Well, Setzer, um, I dunno. I thought my fourway spreadsheet would do 1v1 matches, but I seem to have screwed up a little. <_<
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Karma Hunter | Posted 4/15/2009 9:56:47 PM | message detail

I think you're overreacting, KH. LTTP's gonna be in the high-50s; this is better competition than Z1's pack and I'm not sure if you can just peg games as needing to hit a certain threshold to validate their star power.

for example, I don't think FF7 outdoes Mario 3's percentage against its pack and it's not like FF7's in danger of ever losing to Mario 3.

But LttP's a waaaaaaaaay different beast than Zelda I - we're talking about the difference between losing handily to SMB3 and being equal to the game that beat SMB3 without a sweat. That's the kind of strength difference that should easily make up the difference between packs like these, with whatever remainder being made up for by SFF. Zelda I clearly SFFed Metroid into the ground, Contra just was too weak to take advantage of that opportunity. LttP is either failing to SFF DKC similarly, or DKC is just THAT strong. Both options strain credulity.

And no, I don't think LttP is in danger of losing to, say, CT in a 1v1 ever again, and I still think it's clearly the #3 game on the site. But I was looking for a performance to give some fuel to LttP > FF7 with FF6 and CT in the match - I *was* expecting 60%+. And this isn't it.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 4/15/2009 9:57:33 PM | message detail

Oh, I'm an idiot. That's Lead vs Doom, not Doom vs FFVI. Let's try that again.

Time | Doom . . | FFVI
01:00 | 28.77% | 71.23%
02:00 | 28.36% | 71.64%
03:00 | 25.99% | 74.01%
04:00 | 27.16% | 72.84%
05:00 | 25.91% | 74.09%
06:00 | 28.07% | 71.93%
07:00 | 27.60% | 72.40%
08:00 | 26.70% | 73.30%
09:00 | 28.31% | 71.69%
10:00 | 26.91% | 73.09%
11:00 | 26.53% | 73.47%
12:00 | 29.19% | 70.81%
13:00 | 27.76% | 72.24%
14:00 | 26.85% | 73.15%
15:00 | 28.08% | 71.92%
16:00 | 27.41% | 72.59%
17:00 | 27.71% | 72.29%
18:00 | 27.64% | 72.36%
19:00 | 27.73% | 72.27%
20:00 | 26.76% | 73.24%
21:00 | 24.28% | 75.72%
22:00 | 24.79% | 75.21%
23:00 | 26.49% | 73.51%
00:00 | 26.04% | 73.96%

Add three hours, blah blah.
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/15/2009 9:57:59 PM | message detail

So far, LttP's doing 72.51% on DKC, slightly below the 74% it got on Super Metroid, but the night's still young.

And LttP's only getting 87.62% on SoR2. Hey, it's faring better than Gunstar Heroes.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/15/2009 9:58:16 PM | message detail

So basically Doom has the exact same trends as FFVI?

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transience | Posted 4/15/2009 10:00:18 PM | message detail

well, I never really considered LTTP > FF7 - I always thought that was people upset-hunting.

Zelda I clearly SFFed Metroid into the ground

are you sure about this? 'cause I'm really not. Metroid did pretty good for itself.
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/15/2009 10:01:09 PM | message detail

To be fair about that comparison, Doom is absolutely no Contra. It's far more known, respected, and liked...not to mention more independent. DKC aside, it should be able to do more to LoZ:LttP than Contra to LoZ, much less LoZ:LttP.
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/15/2009 10:01:35 PM | message detail

Of course LTTP is in danger of losing to CT 1v1 again with that massive CTDS boost! Especially in alleviating its European weakness by being released for the first time there! No, don't bother trying to convince me otherwise, and I didn't take anything from CT absurdly far in my bracket this year for once.
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transience | Posted 4/15/2009 10:01:40 PM | message detail

FF6 is pretty night-heavy, just like FF4 was the other day. after all, this is the game starring Kefka.
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Lopen | Posted 4/15/2009 10:02:03 PM | message detail

Holy stagnating percentages, Batm-- Dr DOOM.

Anyway. Time to go play the stupid porn game be back in an hour to see DOOM roll over the stupid ape.
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FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.

KingBartz | Posted 4/15/2009 10:02:45 PM | message detail

DCK isn't slowing.
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/15/2009 10:03:27 PM | message detail

OK, here's LttP's percentages as of 1:00.

87.64% on SoR2 (compared to LttP scoring 91.15% on Gunstar Heroes in 2004)
74.74% on Doom (compared to FF6 scoring 72.72% on Doom in 2004)
72.51% on DKC (compared to LttP scoring 74.00% on Super Metroid in 2004)

LttP's fine.
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/15/2009 10:04:36 PM | message detail

DKC's percentage on Doom at the end of the power hour: 52.86%. That's within range, especially for DK, but probably not going to happen if Doom's trends are like FFVI's, even 2004 FFVI's.
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MetricTrout | Posted 4/15/2009 10:04:38 PM | message detail

Well, Donkey Kong Country is tied for the second best-selling SNES game, along with Super Mario Kart. And we all saw Mario Kart impress yesterday.
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Gaddswell | Posted 4/15/2009 10:06:12 PM | message detail

40 vote gain for DKC

Wonder if it was Doom benefiting from the Power Hour!
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Karma Hunter | Posted 4/15/2009 10:06:16 PM | message detail

are you sure about this? 'cause I'm really not. Metroid did pretty good for itself.

Getting just 59% on Contra? If you take LoZ out of the equation, that's a really crappy performance.
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KingBartz | Posted 4/15/2009 10:07:25 PM | message detail

Wonder if it was Doom benefiting from the Power Hour!

Well, it was probably the bracket voters.

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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/15/2009 10:07:52 PM | message detail

DKC's looking good now, and LttP looks to at least be constant with its 2004 form so far and will be stronger should its percentage continue to climb.

I have a feeling most of the games in this contest aren't gonna change from their 2004 values.

I'm done for the night. NOW it's DS homebrew time.
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transience | Posted 4/15/2009 10:08:05 PM | message detail

59% is not *that* bad. I'd pick it to win with about 65%, but considering this is Metroid, it's really not that bad at all.
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MnMZero | Posted 4/15/2009 10:10:18 PM | message detail

Well, Donkey Kong Country is tied for the second best-selling SNES game, along with Super Mario Kart. And we all saw Mario Kart impress yesterday.

Which is basically what I was saying earlier. Plus we pretty much had zero data on DKC itself outside of that one poll comparing it as a series to Mario, Mega Man, Sonic, etc.
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KingBartz | Posted 4/15/2009 10:11:02 PM | message detail

Zelda 54% now, DKC is still gaining. I can go to sleep now.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 4/15/2009 10:11:19 PM | message detail

FF1 got 70% on Contra, and Metroid 1 should really not compare to FF1. 60% seems pretty reasonable.

Really, if I had LttP > FFVII (and in fact I do), I'd be more worried about that fact that we really haven't seen much SFF/LFF this contest yet. In the three and half matches where SFF was argued to be significant, it worked in Ninja Gaiden/Duck Hunt and failed in this match (so far, anyway), Metroid/Contra, and SM/SMK/Sonic 3 (the half match - SM/SMK LFF each other out and let Sonic 3 in).
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Karma Hunter | Posted 4/15/2009 10:11:33 PM | message detail

I'd have taken it to at least match its performance on Pac-Man (I'd take Pac > Contra without a second thought), and that implies a 70% or so performance. That's without even taking into account the dropoff Contra's likely suffered from its continued irrelevance since 2004.
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Team Rocket Elite | Posted 4/15/2009 10:12:32 PM | message detail

29 people fell off the Top 50. Archy_Skyline, 777Avalanche777, supernovamoogle, LKanji, menji76, The_Shadow_Link, paulg235, realseniorleach, Gavin_Sykes, Airan_Jo, deft_Y2k, Some_Character, EvilNinjaDuck, mentalmike_2000, Dramus18, OtaconHAL, firedoom666, _Marka_Ragnos_, FallOfAnakin, Gridogn, thedragon31, Shadowzero4, SlientShadow, TKRKS, yzman123, bigjon310, imsuperman1, magikid and FullMetalAce did not have Super Metroid > Super Mario Kart as yesterday's winners.

10 people scored half points and survived. Reaps_Returns, ThisIsU, IanGriggSpall, ShadowHog, ilovecheese611, ravenwind286, K1lr0y, Hinky_P, Zerothma and spiderpete also did not have Super Metroid > Super Mario Kart as yesterday's winners.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 4/15/2009 10:13:40 PM | message detail

Oh, FF1 got 70% on Contra? Guess that just eluded my reasoning - that certainly casts it in a much better light. I'd still expect more from Metroid in a 1v1 match especially considering it's four years later than what it did, but that certainly changes things.
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deadeyedllv | Posted 4/15/2009 10:16:21 PM | message detail

Damn DKC is really turning it up now!
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MnMZero | Posted 4/15/2009 10:16:35 PM | message detail

Sooooo, thoughts on DKC's strength now, independent of being SFF'd?
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