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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 678

Masato_Tanaka | Posted 4/16/2009 7:13:59 AM | message detail
Honestly, I'd say Doom and DKC are about on par on with what they brought to the table
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/16/2009 7:15:44 AM | message detail
*wakes up, logs onto GameFAQs, and nervously checks the poll results*

...

http://i38.tinypic.com/2cgzwy0.jpg


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red sox 777 | Posted 4/16/2009 7:18:09 AM | message detail
I'm thinking Doom has this, and it probably won't be too close when we're done here. And DKC is behind Super Metroid's percentage on LTTP and falling now, which makes a lot more sense. It had 2 really great hours to start the match and hasn't won one since then.
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transience | Posted 4/16/2009 7:19:21 AM | message detail
that's DK's trends. didn't happen with regular DK though, so I think it can win the ASV. I certainly wouldn't call this match.
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xyzzy
http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/7033/trannyanalysis.png
red sox 777 | Posted 4/16/2009 7:21:25 AM | message detail
1:00 | 52.86%
2:00 | 54.17%
3:00 | 49.35%
4:00 | 47.22%
5:00 | 44.50%
6:00 | 47.86%
7:00 | 45.87%
8:00 | 46.33%
9:00 | 46.68%
10:00 | 47.73%

Don't expect DKC to do anything but fall further behind until the ASV, and that probably won't bring about a change either.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
red sox 777 | Posted 4/16/2009 7:23:14 AM | message detail
And yeah, I really shouldn't call matches (every time I do it the other game immediately starts gaining), but strange I feel more confident about Doom now than any of the times I was calling or thinking of calling it for Super Metroid yesterday until 11 PM.
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transience | Posted 4/16/2009 7:27:27 AM | message detail
I actually feel pretty good about DKC. Nintendo icon vs. dated FPS. I think this'll come down to how big this lead is.
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com//chewing.jpg
irriadin | Posted 4/16/2009 7:28:40 AM | message detail
two cuts in a row for DKC
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"I do read sometimes." Mat Cauthon, The Wheel of Time.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/16/2009 7:30:06 AM | message detail
2 cuts in a row right after losing 80 votes in 20 minutes probably doesn't mean anything
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
red sox 777 | Posted 4/16/2009 7:30:15 AM | message detail
If that's what it comes down to, if Doom keeps pulling 53% hours from now 'till 3, the lead would be around 800 votes by that point, which translates to over 2000 in 1v1. Perhaps more importantly, DKC did nothing with the morning vote, and everything from Nintendo other than Smash that does well with the ASV does well with the morning.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
red sox 777 | Posted 4/16/2009 7:40:40 AM | message detail
Well then. In the 4 updates since I called the match for Doom, the lead changes have been: -12, -12, 2, 0. Doom had just spend the previous 20 minutes gaining 80 votes. It's like clockwork.
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The Mana Sword | Posted 4/16/2009 7:41:36 AM | message detail
Who cares about Doom, LttP above 55% let's go for 60.
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Kleenex...at work!
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/16/2009 7:44:33 AM | message detail
Normally I would be pretty worried about Doom, but if there's any Nintendo game that could fail to capitalize on a Nintendo day vote, it's DK.

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ShatteredElysium | Posted 4/16/2009 7:49:43 AM | message detail
Who cares about Doom, LttP above 55% let's go for 60.

Seconded for the sake of my oracle pick!
HaRRicH | Posted 4/16/2009 7:51:14 AM | message detail
Haha, go Doom. I kinda thought it was doomed from last night, but this is good too. If Doom can survive the DKC-onslaught today, Doom should survive to R3. SM's getting hit in two very different directions from Nintendo/SNES-classics and SM-SFF'd-by-LoZ:LttP was barely projected to beat Doom in 2004. Doom will stand out and SM should be broken down...

...assuming Doom advances, dammit.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 4/16/2009 7:52:08 AM | message detail
doom making it to round 3 would make me happy
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
red sox 777 | Posted 4/16/2009 7:52:27 AM | message detail
Good to see LTTP rising again. In fact, it's gone up about half a percent since 8- rather indicative that a lot of schools are on break and the day vote has a lot of the characteristics of a summer/weekend match.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/16/2009 8:00:39 AM | message detail
Looks like I was right again, Doom took the lead overnight. Now it's time for DKC to blow away Doom with the ASV.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/16/2009 8:03:25 AM | message detail
Yeah, either that or LTTP just has night-ish trends. Which is still weird.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: LTTP > Doom - Points: 26/36 Vote: DKC!
irriadin | Posted 4/16/2009 8:07:26 AM | message detail
this match could still turn around in the afternoon, but Doom is looking pretty good right now. I hope (for my bracket's sake) that DKC *does* get second...
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"I do read sometimes." Mat Cauthon, The Wheel of Time.
transience | Posted 4/16/2009 8:08:23 AM | message detail
all big faves have risen throughout the day. this doesn't really suggest much.

but if this is a summer vote, Nintendo usually does well in the morning while shooters do well in the afternoon. this would suggest Doom's got it. I dunno though, I don't think you can say anything definitively.
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xyzzy
The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/16/2009 8:11:32 AM | message detail

From: transience | #471
all big faves have risen throughout the day. this doesn't really suggest much.


The weird part is that it DIDN'T rise from 6-9, the morning vote, when Nintendo is usually pretty good. It even dropped a bit.

Then after 9, when the morning vote is typically ending, it started rising >_>
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/16/2009 8:13:00 AM | message detail
Time | DKC | Doom
01:00 | 20.40% | 18.19%
02:00 | 19.86% | 16.80%
03:00 | 17.59% | 18.06%
04:00 | 16.72% | 18.69%
05:00 | 15.52% | 19.36%
06:00 | 17.15% | 18.68%
07:00 | 15.98% | 19.43%
08:00 | 17.21% | 19.57%
09:00 | 16.62% | 19.00%


Who knows.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: LTTP > Doom - Points: 26/36 Vote: DKC!
dsp_selym | Posted 4/16/2009 8:15:35 AM | message detail
I'm glad all the Doom fans woke up early to go to work and noticed the crazy shenanigans going on with DKC beating Doom. Good fix old folks!
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PSN - DSP_Selym
Steam - Selym
transience | Posted 4/16/2009 8:17:43 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3449&num=4

Zelda 1 went up during this time just as much as the morning, if not more. I'm willing to accept this being a half summer vote though. SMK/SM certainly suggests it.
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xyzzy
http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/7033/trannyanalysis.png
ffmasterjose | Posted 4/16/2009 8:19:15 AM | message detail
transience | Posted 4/16/2009 10:27:27 AM | message detail
I actually feel pretty good about DKC. Nintendo icon vs. dated FPS. I think this'll come down to how big this lead is.


I normally don't disagree with you tran man, but calling anything Donkey Kong iconic is worth a "whatchu talkin' about tranny?" post.

Whatchu talkin' about tranny? For whatever reason DK gets the smallest amount of Nintendo support.

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28/36 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Zelda: A Link to the Past > Doom | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
transience | Posted 4/16/2009 8:20:45 AM | message detail
DK's still iconic regardless of his GameFAQs polling numbers say.
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xyzzy
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/16/2009 8:21:23 AM | message detail
DKC's recovering a bit along with LTTP.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: LTTP > Doom - Points: 26/36 Vote: DKC!
irriadin | Posted 4/16/2009 8:24:11 AM | message detail
Say what you will about the characters, but DKC is an iconic series. It was released when 32-bit systems were attempting to steal the limelight from the fading SNES era, and showed that Nintendo's system could produce some (then) outstanding graphics. Saying nothing of the stellar music or clever game design, DKC deserves respect.
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"I do read sometimes." Mat Cauthon, The Wheel of Time.
HaRRicH | Posted 4/16/2009 8:24:55 AM | message detail
Now, if DKC does advance and we get SM/SMK/DKC duking it out for second place in R2...I gotta take SMK. It's the most unique since it's multiplayer-heavy and a very casual spin-off, plus SM will be dealing with another platformer in DKC. It'll be interesting to see how it goes down, but I think SMK will improve on SM unless SM's hardcore fanbase really pulls through...and it barely did yesterday.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
ffmasterjose | Posted 4/16/2009 8:27:33 AM | message detail
Oh ok, I see what you were saying now.
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28/36 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Zelda: A Link to the Past > Doom | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
Scarecoaster | Posted 4/16/2009 8:29:34 AM | message detail
I'm sorry, I'm clueless... What's ASV stand for?
transience | Posted 4/16/2009 8:30:32 AM | message detail
afterschool vote -- basically, 3pm and on we see the casual-friendly games do much better.
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xyzzy
http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/7033/trannyanalysis.png
HaRRicH | Posted 4/16/2009 8:36:43 AM | message detail
Change of pace for a second: how are people expecting MK2 to do against Sonic 2? I just looked over the bracket and saw that...after the beating Sonic 1 gave SF2, are people expecting Sonic 2 to beat MK2 worse or MK2 to pull a surprise? Because they can't have a close match without Sonic 1 > Sonic 2 or MK2 > SF2.....
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
The Mana Sword | Posted 4/16/2009 8:37:27 AM | message detail
Secret of Mana
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Kleenex...at work!
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/16/2009 8:37:35 AM | message detail
I expect Sonic 2 to win pretty easily.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: LTTP > Doom - Points: 26/36 Vote: DKC!
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/16/2009 8:38:16 AM | message detail
Sonic 2>Sonic 1
SFII>MKII

It should be a slaughter.

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Ultimaphazon | Posted 4/16/2009 8:43:21 AM | message detail
Sonic 2 > SoM

Probably the only crazy upset pick I feel good about right now.
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A pro isn't someone who sacrifices himself for his job. That's just a fool. - Reno, FFVII
edwardsdv | Posted 4/16/2009 8:49:43 AM | message detail
Well then call me a moron.

I called MK2> Sonic 2

We have to as how much stronger Sonic 2 is than three. Also the existence of some actual competition in the form of SoM ensures less MK2 vs. Snoic 2 considerations.

It doesn't split fanbases, but it does cause a lot fewer " I dont really care" votes to be split between Sonic 2 and MK2, more of which I would expect to go to sonic.


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http://www.thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=212
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/16/2009 8:51:33 AM | message detail

From: irriadin | #479
Say what you will about the characters, but DKC is an iconic series. It was released when 32-bit systems were attempting to steal the limelight from the fading SNES era, and showed that Nintendo's system could produce some (then) outstanding graphics. Saying nothing of the stellar music or clever game design, DKC deserves respect.


Too bad that despite all that, the game isn't fun at all.
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/16/2009 8:52:05 AM | message detail
I've got MK > Sonic 2...and FF3/6 > MK2. I feel ya.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
HaRRicH | Posted 4/16/2009 8:54:18 AM | message detail
I loved DKC1 back in the day, but it was hard for me to get into the others following it and I can't get behind DKC now. Its gameplay just...doesn't work for me anymore; give me Mario, Sonic, or NES-Mega Man any day. I'll respect it, but...meh.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
ffmasterjose | Posted 4/16/2009 8:55:06 AM | message detail
I took MKII > Sonic 2 for a wild upset heavily influenced by my love for Mortal Kombat. After seeing Sonic 1 demolish Street Fighter II, I have zero hope for that upset to happen. Sonic 1 is probably the least popular of the three, and Street Fighter II is stronger than Mortal Kombat II (or so I'm guessing).

So yeah, Sonic 2 > MKII looks to be the expected result

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28/36 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Zelda: A Link to the Past > Doom | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
PhD_inTHC | Posted 4/16/2009 8:55:47 AM | message detail
I don't think there's anyway MK takes down Sonic. The MK series has gone in the gutter just as hard as Sonic has, and it was never as popular as Sonic around these parts. I won't call anything out of question, but I'd be really, really surprised if MK made a match out of it.

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all hail ec your lord and savior
irriadin | Posted 4/16/2009 8:56:33 AM | message detail
Too bad that despite all that, the game isn't fun at all.

Fun when? Fun now? Certainly DKC has been eclipsed by more recent games in the genre, but back when it was released, it was definitely fun. I still enjoy it to this day, but I'll admit that the first one was the weakest of the three. DKC2, on the other hand...
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"I do read sometimes." Mat Cauthon, The Wheel of Time.
XxSoulxX | Posted 4/16/2009 8:57:15 AM | message detail
Umm... guys, I hope you know that there is no way for MKII to upset Sonic 2, and there never was any possibility of that upset. It's like saying SM64 > OoT. It's not possible in any situation in this contest.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/16/2009 8:58:11 AM | message detail
MK2 could upset Sonic 2 if there was another Nintendo option, but there isn't.
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/16/2009 8:59:20 AM | message detail
Oh, don't worry, I know that now. My problem was not giving Sonic 2 enough credit due to SMW in 2004 and that MK2 is much more supported than MK...but when Sonic 1 cleanly squashes SF2, it's hard not to expect Sonic 2 to improve on that against MK2.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
PhD_inTHC | Posted 4/16/2009 8:59:54 AM | message detail
weiners
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all hail ec your lord and savior
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/16/2009 9:00:12 AM | message detail
We have to as how much stronger Sonic 2 is than three. Also the existence of some actual competition in the form of SoM ensures less MK2 vs. Snoic 2 considerations.

Actual competition?

Secret of Mana will be lucky to break 10% there.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1