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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 677

The Mana Sword | Posted 4/15/2009 12:29:11 PM | message detail
This is ova.
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Kleenex...at work!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/15/2009 12:30:51 PM | message detail
It needs to do more significant cuts then that. If MK wants to win, it needs a several hundred vote lead after the ASV.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/15/2009 12:32:45 PM | message detail
Mario Kart gg
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/15/2009 12:32:57 PM | message detail
good job mario kart
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Yesmar | Posted 4/15/2009 12:34:04 PM | message detail
This match is so weird, I have to try to draw some sense out of it, and here's what I have:

A) Street Fighter II has dropped in popularity since 2004.
B) Sonic 1 is the most popular of the Genesis Sonics, at least indirectly.
C) Sonic 2 and Sonic 3 are probably not noticeably different in popularity. If anything, Sonic 3 is weaker.
D) There was little if any SFF in SMW/Sonic 2.
E) There is no SFF in this match, but the two Nintendo games are leeching Sonic 3 enough to stop it from advancing past them. It's also remotely possible that Sonic 3 is taking advantage of some Leeching, but it sucks so bad this is all it can do.
F) Super Mario Kart is a hell of a lot more popular than I would have thought in a million years, and has aged better than Super Metroid with the GameFAQS audience (How, I have no ****ing idea.)

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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 4/15/2009 12:39:30 PM | message detail
So SMK is finally done?
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/15/2009 12:44:15 PM | message detail
If Mario Kart treads water for a couple hours, can it come back later?
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.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.
Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Devil May Cry
charmander6000 | Posted 4/15/2009 12:45:44 PM | message detail
Wow looks like SMK been close all day.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: Sonic 3 > Super Metroid Points: 24/32
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 4/15/2009 12:46:53 PM | message detail
Looks like SMK isn't quite done, judging by that last update.
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 4/15/2009 12:49:59 PM | message detail
Yes it is. It's stalling, but it can't bring SM down. Notice that the same thing happened when SM spent several updates trying to get past being down 2 votes before it surged and started climbing. There's nothing to make us believe that this isn't just a stall from SMK's part to stop SM from temporarily increasing its lead.
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 4/15/2009 12:50:48 PM | message detail
...then again maybe not.
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
LordLockeRA | Posted 4/15/2009 1:00:02 PM | message detail
There's only one thing that really needs to be said to predict how this match'll end:

It's freakin' MARIO (Kart)
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Meeh. Whatever.
Childproof | Posted 4/15/2009 1:09:28 PM | message detail
three cuts in a row = trend?
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Is GrapefruitKing
Today's prediction: Metroid 36.65% - Sonic 3 32.62% - Kart 24.72% - Gunstar Heroes 6.01% - Status: Bad
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/15/2009 1:10:09 PM | message detail
Yep, seems like the kids with good taste are finally showing up
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Childproof | Posted 4/15/2009 1:13:50 PM | message detail
woops, Metroid erases all that progress
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Is GrapefruitKing
Today's prediction: Metroid 36.65% - Sonic 3 32.62% - Kart 24.72% - Gunstar Heroes 6.01% - Status: Bad
Breakdown777 | Posted 4/15/2009 1:18:46 PM | message detail
Super Missiles > Red Shells
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SCCs completed: Thief, Samurai, Archer, Wizard, Mediator
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/15/2009 1:26:42 PM | message detail
I am still shocked that metroid is winning the asv

Samus never did... and against a mario title to boot
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http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/378/86b7a0dada9b6d09cd92aaaa2fed5c0f425774f6.gif
lancealots_son | Posted 4/15/2009 1:29:19 PM | message detail
Poor Gunstar Heroes, it was my favorite game in this 4-pack but I knew it would do nothing. I would like to see how would of done in a weaker 4-pack however. Sad to put him up against what is practically a three N9'er match
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/15/2009 1:35:04 PM | message detail
Yeah, SM wins this unless SMK gets a few consecutive feathers and red shells.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/15/2009 1:38:12 PM | message detail
I am still shocked that metroid is winning the asv

I kind of predicted Super Metroid winning the ASV, like 3 hours before it actually started. I posted this near the beginning of this topic:

If Super Metroid could build up its lead during an American dominated time period (PHV and early FNV), then it should also win the ASV, which is more American dominated than the BSV and DSV.

Looks like I'm right here.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
Mac Arrowny | Posted 4/15/2009 1:39:14 PM | message detail
Samus holds up a lot better to SFF than she did before 2007. I mean, she did manage to beat Sephiroth there, in a much better performance than in the ToC. Super Metroid's not going to get hit as hard next round either, due to this new SFF resistance.
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All the stars in the sky are waiting for you.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/15/2009 1:39:44 PM | message detail
Metroid wins the SNV either way so this is done.

On the one hand, Mario Kart winning gets me points, but on the other, Super Metroid is the far superior game and it is good to see it winning this match.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
MnMZero | Posted 4/15/2009 1:40:44 PM | message detail
Samus has acquired the SFFVaria Suit.
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Proud Supporter of Zero
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/15/2009 1:40:49 PM | message detail
Or Samus just crumbles in the face of Link and LttP is going to destroy it just as badly as that ToC match.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/15/2009 1:42:05 PM | message detail
I mean, she did manage to beat Sephiroth there, in a much better performance than in the ToC.

Samus wasn't in the ToC. You are thinking of the Battle Royale. Anyways, she beat Sephiroth in a match containing Link, who should have SFFed her and prevented her from beating Sephiroth.

The first Metroid already resisted SFF from Zelda 1 a few days ago, so I guess Samus/Metroid has gotten better at holding up against SFF.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/15/2009 1:42:40 PM | message detail
They're too different scenarios, but I just realized this doesn't make me feel as good about Metroid Prime crushing Paper Mario en route to a Round 1 win.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/15/2009 1:43:38 PM | message detail
Zelda 1 didn't actually resist SFF. Contra just stunk it up that badly.

1:00 Super Metroid Up 183
2:00 Super Metroid Up 231
3:00 Super Metroid Up 166
4:00 Super Metroid Down 21
5:00 Super Metroid Down 64
6:00 Super Metroid Down 121
7:00 Super Metroid Down 56
8:00 Super Metroid Down 73
9:00 Super Metroid Up 3
10:00 Super Metroid Up 3
11:00 Super Metroid Down 116
12:00 Super Metroid Down 65
13:00 Super Metroid Down 79
14:00 Super Metroid Up 13
15:00 Super Metroid Up 124
16:00 Super Metroid Up 35
16:40 Super Metroid Up 108

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/15/2009 1:44:59 PM | message detail
They're too different scenarios, but I just realized this doesn't make me feel as good about Metroid Prime crushing Paper Mario en route to a Round 1 win.

I think I mentioned this before, but I think a MP vs. KH match without any outside interference is debatable. The addition of Paper Mario made it an easy choice for me.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/15/2009 1:52:08 PM | message detail
Well, I figured Vice City hurts Kingdom Hearts a bit as well. Probably bad reasoning on my part.
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Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/8zkzm1.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/15/2009 1:52:31 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #229
Well, I figured Vice City hurts Kingdom Hearts a bit as well. Probably bad reasoning on my part.


lol wut
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/15/2009 1:54:06 PM | message detail
Eh...outside of sharing the same console, you'd be hard-pressed to find two more differing fanbases.

Vice City: Horribly violent and decadent sandbox game, where you steal and murder your way to the top.
KH: Magical Square RPG romp through your favorite classic Disney worlds, heavily influenced by anime.

Yeah.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/15/2009 1:59:51 PM | message detail
oh wow 44 vote cut
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Chaotic Mind | Posted 4/15/2009 2:00:24 PM | message detail
Yeah, KH>MP was obvious from the start. If anything, i'm worried now that Paper Mario will drag MP down enough for Vice City to steal second.
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Flash runs alongside Balefire watching marshmallows stop existing. - WarThaNemesis2
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/15/2009 2:00:31 PM | message detail
...And lost in all this is that Sonic is losing the day vote. lol Sonic

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/15/2009 2:04:36 PM | message detail
Eh, I'm not worried about Prime not making the top two. Look at how badly Mario Kart is beating Sonic. It would obviously kill Paper Mario in this contest. Guess I'm hoping Kingdom Hearts chokes a bit or that Prime is legitimately the strongest entrant there by a non-negligible margin.
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Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/8zkzm1.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/15/2009 2:05:04 PM | message detail
cut 80 votes in last 4 updates

if this continues MK will take the lead back soon
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/15/2009 2:05:13 PM | message detail
Well, I figured Vice City hurts Kingdom Hearts a bit as well. Probably bad reasoning on my part.

Very bad reasoning. Yes, they are PS2 games, but their fanbases are as far part as you could possibly think of. One is a mature game with heavy violence and not one that most kiddies are going to play. The other is powered heavily by the kiddie vote.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
trannyscience | Posted 4/15/2009 2:08:34 PM | message detail
board 8's contest predicting god, owned by Luster Soldier (with a space in the name)

funny match. there's still no logical trend in this match at all. I've never seen anything like this, really. advantage SM, I guess, not only because it should be the superior night vote but because SM fans just care more.
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xyzzy
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/15/2009 2:09:27 PM | message detail
as far as we know, mk will dominate the second night vote
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/15/2009 2:10:38 PM | message detail
How far do we know, three millimeters?
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Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/8zkzm1.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
H__RR____H | Posted 4/15/2009 2:10:40 PM | message detail
They're too different scenarios, but I just realized this doesn't make me feel as good about Metroid Prime crushing Paper Mario en route to a Round 1 win.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=769
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1870
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2988

We see the original didn't do well here (way back in the day, to be fair), and MP2/3 beat PM's sequels quite soundly. I'm not worried about PM costing MP much. Then again, KH should be THAT close to MP to take advantage of any loss of strength, so...we'll see.
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BT about Round Two: If Snake gets 43-45%, I'll close my account right now.
www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3285
MnMZero | Posted 4/15/2009 2:11:07 PM | message detail
They're too different scenarios, but I just realized this doesn't make me feel as good about Metroid Prime crushing Paper Mario en route to a Round 1 win.

The same Metroid Prime that got 45% on WW? Would you expect Paper Mario to do the same thing?
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Proud Supporter of Zero
trannyscience | Posted 4/15/2009 2:12:40 PM | message detail
SMK is an untested entry, I wouldn't write off Super Metroid because of it. it's pretty darn popular in its own right. SMK would probably take VC handily.
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xyzzy
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/15/2009 2:14:17 PM | message detail
would SMK do better or worse on VC then Melee
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/15/2009 2:14:18 PM | message detail
It's funny how I can look at these updates, shrug, and figure that in a few updates SM might be doing the same thing.

Just one of those matches.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/15/2009 2:14:53 PM | message detail
board 8's contest predicting god, owned by Luster Soldier (with a space in the name)

I wouldn't consider myself a contest predicting god, though I am owning it up in the Oracle right now at 9th place. I've also predicted 2 upsets that no one saw coming. They are Squall > Sora (round 2) from last contest and now Tetris > DK from this contest.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
Childproof | Posted 4/15/2009 2:15:05 PM | message detail
uuuh it appears we have a match
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Is GrapefruitKing
Today's prediction: Metroid 36.65% - Sonic 3 32.62% - Kart 24.72% - Gunstar Heroes 6.01% - Status: Bad
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/15/2009 2:18:27 PM | message detail
Feeling good about MK now that its finally showing some ASV life
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/15/2009 2:23:32 PM | message detail
Since 3PM, SM has gained a total of 27 votes. ASV is going very evenly, indeed.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
H__RR____H | Posted 4/15/2009 2:32:41 PM | message detail
Super Mario Kart > Super Metroid with the West Coast After School Vote!
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BT about Round Two: If Snake gets 43-45%, I'll close my account right now.
www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3285