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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 677

KanzarisKelshen | Posted 4/15/2009 9:50:44 AM | message detail
If we assume MK acts like Mario and SM acts like Samus, MK is going to steal the ASV. Hope SM has a good night vote...

PS: Still, good to see SM managed to make the lead bigger and didn't fold. As long as it doesn't end up behind, it still has a chance.
deadeyedllv | Posted 4/15/2009 9:52:47 AM | message detail
I looked back at a couple matches and it seems Samus and Mario have nearly identical ASV patterns, even in 4 way matches they were together. If anything, Mario had a slight advantage. Because of this, and how many more casual voters Mario Kart will get I'm gonna give this one to Mario Kart.
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Chaotic Mind | Posted 4/15/2009 9:53:17 AM | message detail
pffft, when the lead drops from 26 to 5 MK isn't stuffing, but when it goes up to 26 from 5 suddenly SM is stuffing? MK fanboy.

Btw i'm fairly sure you were joking, so am i :P
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 4/15/2009 9:55:10 AM | message detail
Deadeye said:

I looked back at a couple matches and it seems Samus and Mario have nearly identical ASV patterns, even in 4 way matches they were together. If anything, Mario had a slight advantage. Because of this, and how many more casual voters Mario Kart will get I'm gonna give this one to Mario Kart.

Damn, MK is probably going to get the advantage then. I just can't see SM managing to hold MK off during what is probably its best vote period...
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/15/2009 9:59:46 AM | message detail
Super Metroid is pulling some Phoenix Wright vs. Bomberman voodoo here!

And I'm not confident MK wins the ASV. Or that SM wins it. We really don't know MK's trends very well.

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The Mana Sword | Posted 4/15/2009 10:00:28 AM | message detail
Gunstar Heroes has this.
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Kleenex...at work!
RPGuy96 | Posted 4/15/2009 10:00:33 AM | message detail
34 votes! If Sonic 3 was in second rather than SMK this would be significant!
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deadeyedllv | Posted 4/15/2009 10:00:44 AM | message detail
Yeah everything we say is pure assumption. I just hope it remains this close till the end. We need a last minute nail biter this contest!
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You can't run away from trouble, there ain't no place that far.
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 4/15/2009 10:03:45 AM | message detail
Deadeye Said:

We need last minute nailbiter in a 4-way contest!

Fix'd. :p
deadeyedllv | Posted 4/15/2009 10:03:47 AM | message detail
Lead change!
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 4/15/2009 10:04:21 AM | message detail
...Crap. SM is down 12 votes. This isn't going to be good...
alexazx | Posted 4/15/2009 10:06:12 AM | message detail
Ahh... Mario Kart is leading by 12 votes now. It feels really good right now, with my SMK > SM.
The Mana Sword | Posted 4/15/2009 10:07:08 AM | message detail
Sonic 3 has this.
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Kleenex...at work!
red sox 777 | Posted 4/15/2009 10:07:44 AM | message detail
Huge update for Mario Kart to take the lead. The ASV will decide this one.
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 4/15/2009 10:09:10 AM | message detail
If that's the case, SM is doomed. Mario is more recognizable than Samus, and the ASV is going to be all over the casual game, to boot. Still, there's always hope for a late-night comeback...
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/15/2009 10:09:31 AM | message detail
nice knowing you metroid
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/15/2009 10:11:09 AM | message detail
Well, it seems pretty clear than SM is losing the Europe vote, so it might do better with the ASV as there are more American votes coming in then. Who knows though- there's also the matter of a lot of schools on both sides of the ocean having break right now, so there might not even be an ASV.
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 4/15/2009 10:11:13 AM | message detail
Lead cut by 5. Whoo? Still, could be worse.
Childproof | Posted 4/15/2009 10:12:53 AM | message detail
the last Super Mario Kart is in captivity
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Is GrapefruitKing
Today's prediction: Metroid 36.65% - Sonic 3 32.62% - Kart 24.72% - Gunstar Heroes 6.01% - Status: Bad
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 4/15/2009 10:13:51 AM | message detail
OMG, lead down to 2 votes! C'mon, SM, you can do it!

*starts cheering*
The Mana Sword | Posted 4/15/2009 10:13:57 AM | message detail
Metroid's got this.
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Kleenex...at work!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/15/2009 10:14:13 AM | message detail
Our first real match
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/15/2009 10:14:21 AM | message detail
FIGHT, SAMUS! FOR EVERLASTING PEACE!

...wait...

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/15/2009 10:14:27 AM | message detail
Samus establishes wrist control.
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TheOceIot | Posted 4/15/2009 10:15:35 AM | message detail
What a wonky match.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/15/2009 10:17:10 AM | message detail
I still wish we could have close matches with 3 top entrants or even 4.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: SM > Sonic 3 - Points: 24/32 Vote: SMK
Childproof | Posted 4/15/2009 10:19:44 AM | message detail
whoa, I've just realised I hadn't voted yet

*votes for Super Metroid*
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Is GrapefruitKing
Today's prediction: Metroid 36.65% - Sonic 3 32.62% - Kart 24.72% - Gunstar Heroes 6.01% - Status: Bad
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 4/15/2009 10:20:28 AM | message detail
Let's see... Crono, Mario, Snake, and...umm, Sonic/Mega Man? That's about as good as it could get without SFF entering the mix. We REALLY need to go back to 2005/2006 and take out Clinkeroth from the standard contests. It makes things much more exciting.

Also, MK has a 10 vote lead. Dammit.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/15/2009 10:20:53 AM | message detail
There's no point in comparing games and characters. Don't even bother.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: SM > Sonic 3 - Points: 24/32 Vote: SMK
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/15/2009 10:21:50 AM | message detail
how close would metroid need to be for 11th hour board 8 "Rallies" to work
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 4/15/2009 10:22:30 AM | message detail
'Cept for stuff like CT and FF7, I agree. Some games ARE more or less the same as a character from them, but most are just similar, and some don't have anything to do with their characters, like Starcraft.
red sox 777 | Posted 4/15/2009 10:23:25 AM | message detail
200 is probably close enough; 400 (what Frog got) is an absolute max for that. I don't know if Board 8 supports SM like Crono/Snake/Phoenix Wright/Frog though.
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Childproof | Posted 4/15/2009 10:23:33 AM | message detail
epic stall wah wah wah
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Is GrapefruitKing
Today's prediction: Metroid 36.65% - Sonic 3 32.62% - Kart 24.72% - Gunstar Heroes 6.01% - Status: Bad
Tohoya | Posted 4/15/2009 10:23:54 AM | message detail
I just can't see Doom advancing, not even past round 1. I don't care that DK is a choke fest or that it's getting SFFed: its freaking Doom. Since when have ancient computer games been worth a damn on this site? You can say Xbox shift all you want, but Doom 3 wasn't popular at all with the console crowd (hence its inability to get into the contest with 128 participants while fodder like Gunstar Heroes manages it). I highly doubt that the Halo and Call of Duty fans went back, played, and enjoyed that antiquated piece of software, and Pong shows that being an icon will only get you so far.
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 4/15/2009 10:24:49 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/15/2009 10:25:13 AM | message detail
Doom (2004g) VS Castlevania: SotN (2004g)

Doom has a strength of 23.64.
Castlevania: SotN has a strength of 22.30.

Doom wins with 52.83% of the vote!
A win of 4,232 with 74,652 total votes cast.


would you expect sotn to advance there, y'n
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irriadin | Posted 4/15/2009 10:26:16 AM | message detail
Yep, I fail to see how people think Doom is a clear choice. Donkey Kong Country was a very popular franchise, and I think it's safe to say that the games are much more popular than the characters in it.
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 4/15/2009 10:26:18 AM | message detail
If we were back in 2004, yes, I would. Five years later, though? SotN has probably weakened much more than Doom.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/15/2009 10:27:14 AM | message detail

From: irriadin | #087
Yep, I fail to see how people think Doom is a clear choice. Donkey Kong Country was a very popular franchise, and I think it's safe to say that the games are much more popular than the characters in it.


because any possible support DK woulda had will be sapped by lttp
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/15/2009 10:28:04 AM | message detail
Why is everybody scratching Doom off, at least? It did about as well as the first Mortal Kombat. That's more than enough to beat an SFF'd Donkey Kong Country.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: SM > Sonic 3 - Points: 24/32 Vote: SMK
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 4/15/2009 10:28:46 AM | message detail
Exactly. And, while I love SoR, it would need to be MUCH stronger than we thought to win against Doom. Even though I love doomy, I'd prefer if SoR won, but it'd be the biggest upset since Snake>Cloud.
red sox 777 | Posted 4/15/2009 10:29:01 AM | message detail
Doom broke 27% on FFVI. It's not uber fodder, and not fodder at all going by 2k4 stats and using 20% on FFVII as the fodder line. As for SOTN, I expect nearly everyone here would take it to advance tomorrow, and almost no one would take it to lose to Doom. That comparison ignores OOT/GE SFF.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/15/2009 10:29:57 AM | message detail
Just so you know, I now fully blame Mario Kart Double Dash for the series' lost to Mega Man.
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 4/15/2009 10:30:43 AM | message detail
Nobody says Doom it's fodder. What we're saying is that it has to rely on SM and MK being ground into fine red mist by SFF to win, and that's not a good thing.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/15/2009 10:31:03 AM | message detail
People just assume Doom won't do well because its a FPS I guess.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/15/2009 10:31:45 AM | message detail

From: KanzarisKelshen | #094
Nobody says Doom it's fodder. What we're saying is that it has to rely on SM and MK being ground into fine red mist by SFF to win, and that's not a good thing.


And samus is turned into fodder when she faces link, and super mario kart should lose support to zelda easily too.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/15/2009 10:32:38 AM | message detail
Except we already know that in 2004, Super Metroid was SFFed enough by LttP in order to rank about equal to Doom. Add in the futher effect of LFF to balance out any amount Doom may have weakened if at all, and you have a good match
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 4/15/2009 10:32:39 AM | message detail
OMG! Super Metroid up by 10 votes! YES!
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/15/2009 10:33:03 AM | message detail

From: KanzarisKelshen | #094
Nobody says Doom it's fodder. What we're saying is that it has to rely on SM and MK being ground into fine red mist by SFF to win, and that's not a good thing.


How is that not a good thing? What makes you think it can't do it?
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: SM > Sonic 3 - Points: 24/32 Vote: SMK
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/15/2009 10:33:07 AM | message detail
oh dayum that was a big update for metroid
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