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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 677

KamikazePotato | Posted 4/15/2009 6:03:31 PM | message detail
I think there's probably cheating on both sides, but as far as one side having more cheating than the other...SMK, definitely. Weirder updates, defied trends.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/15/2009 6:04:16 PM | message detail
Oh theres cheating on both sides no doubt. Both SMK and SM keep on going up in percentage compared to sonic and GH
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RPGuy96 | Posted 4/15/2009 6:04:49 PM | message detail
You misunderstand; I'm not talking about the overall match votals, but those coming in at each update. If one side was cheating sporadically, then you would expect a spike in votals over a fifteen minute period when that side had a good fifteen minute update (which, as I said, happened with Battletoads). This isn't happening here (yet, anyway, I have no doubt the last hour will be very fishy if it stays close).
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/15/2009 6:06:22 PM | message detail
...Actually, that's a good point.

Sonic went down with the day vote. If that doesn't scream inflated voting, I don't know what does.

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DiorHomme | Posted 4/15/2009 6:10:02 PM | message detail
Thread is ending soon!
red sox 777 | Posted 4/15/2009 6:12:27 PM | message detail
Super Metroid by the Hour vs. Super Mario Kart!

1:00 | 51.25%
2:00 | 52.48%
3:00 | 52.63%
4:00 | 49.56%
5:00 | 48.41%
6:00 | 46.73%
7:00 | 48.81%
8:00 | 48.76%
9:00 | 50.04%
10:00 | 51.09%
11:00 | 49.68%
12:00 | 48.84%
13:00 | 49.60%
14:00 | 49.55%
15:00 | 51.74%
16:00 | 50.68%
17:00 | 50.40%
18:00 | 47.60%
19:00 | 50.51%
20:00 | 49.32%
21:00 | 49.93%
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/15/2009 6:13:23 PM | message detail
Sonic's day vote isn't that good though- Nintendo's is just as good or better.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/15/2009 6:14:22 PM | message detail
1. Both of these games move on either way.
2. We don't have any large vote swings.
3. Everyone is convinced things aren't legit.
4. Both games have similar fanbases, meaning far less drama.

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SonicRaptor | Posted 4/15/2009 6:14:26 PM | message detail

From: MyWorldIsCrono | #450
basically it confirms if battletoads, whcih stood no chance, can get 2500 rally votes... whats to stop stuff like wow and starcraft from getting 6k or more in a match that counts?


4chan is a little more...crazy than BNet is.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/15/2009 6:15:23 PM | message detail
Sonic should've at least stayed even. Not go down like this.

Looking at that graph...it makes SMK look suspicious. Following trends, SM dominated the early Nintendo vote, MK dominated the Europe vote, SM fought back a bit in the morning, SMK took advantage of the DSV, SM starts to pull away with the ASV...and then SMK comes out of nowhere. Huh?

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draarrowgant | Posted 4/15/2009 6:16:56 PM | message detail
More commentary from the noob gallery....

We finally have a good match and the cheating flag gets raised... Let's suppose a couple things:

1) Year to year there are new members to gamefaqs, and each year one could possibly presume that they would vote as existing voters were. Screw presumption- for all you know the new voters (and exodus of old voters) can swing votes.

2) The Wii brought in a bunch of new casual gamers- and lets admit it- getting the wii and mario kart with the wheel happened A LOT. I mean, I know tons of moms who bought that stuff who are now in their 30's.... tons.... and I l live in Idaho.....

3) Change bucks trends. Sure, we have a bizzillion man hours between everyone who has been doing these contest for over a year hypothesising what should happen... and given xstats and everything else I would think 8/10 trends will prevail. But change happens- get over it.

4) L-block

5) If this always went down as expected then we only should cheer for the changing voting landscape. God Bless Evolution and Diversity.

Just trying to say (and no hate to you old fogies on here) that this wonderful match may be pure voting landscape changes, and just because you didn't think it was possible doesnt mean that there is foul play.

<go Metroid>
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/15/2009 6:17:28 PM | message detail
That 5-6 hour is very suspicious for SMK, yes. But SM did not actually start pulling away very much with the ASV- the time from 2:30 to 3:00 usually goes the same way as the true ASV, but not always- and SM won but hardly dominated the first 2 hours of the true ASV.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/15/2009 6:18:41 PM | message detail
Heh, this match reminds me of CT/LTTP a lot.
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BGE2 - Today: SM > Sonic 3 - Points: 24/32 Vote: SMK
trannyscience | Posted 4/15/2009 6:18:57 PM | message detail
this isn't about a change in the demographics -- Super Mario Kart winning isn't anything unusual, really. it's the way it's happening.

if anything, the Wii has been a Bad Thing as far as this site goes -- http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3362
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/15/2009 6:19:18 PM | message detail
It doesn't prove SMK is cheating 100%, but it does look extremely suspicious. 16:00 is just...what.

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red sox 777 | Posted 4/15/2009 6:20:28 PM | message detail
As far as trends go, I'd say that once we got through the early night vote and the Europe vote, we really haven't had any trends. It's an SFF match; these games have the same fanbase and the same trends.
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plasmabeam | Posted 4/15/2009 6:20:58 PM | message detail
Heh, this match reminds me of CT/LTTP a lot.

Agreed, though CT/LTTP had a Pats/Colts playoff game atmosphere to it, and this one feels like a regular season meeting.

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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/15/2009 6:21:56 PM | message detail
Not so. SMK was clearly favored in Europe - and had every reason to be, MK sells a ridiculous amount over there - while SM was clearly favored by the American voting block. Not huge trends, but they seem pretty well-defined to me.

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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/15/2009 6:26:09 PM | message detail

From: plasmabeam | Posted: 4/15/2009 9:20:58 PM | #467
Heh, this match reminds me of CT/LTTP a lot.

Agreed, though CT/LTTP had a Pats/Colts playoff game atmosphere to it, and this one feels like a regular season meeting.


How dare you invoke The Game of 2007™ into all this.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/15/2009 6:26:43 PM | message detail
Or rather, 18:00 looks extremely fishy. Not 16:00. Yeah.

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charmander6000 | Posted 4/15/2009 6:27:13 PM | message detail
SMK's biggest lead: 33
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BGE2 - Today's Match: Sonic 3 > Super Metroid Points: 24/32
trannyscience | Posted 4/15/2009 6:28:29 PM | message detail
I got a bit of a CT/LTTP feeling a few minutes ago too, but this is like the baby version of it. I don't think you can really remake that match in fourways anyway.
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/15/2009 6:31:23 PM | message detail
CT/LTTP just meant a lot more than this. That was for the right to advance to the semifinals with the loser out, and realistically for the title of #3 game on the site, and this is for the right to be destroyed by LTTP next round.....or rather it isn't even for that because both games have already earned that by defeating Sonic 3.
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MnMZero | Posted 4/15/2009 6:31:38 PM | message detail
Plus it's not like we're talking about a match worth tons of points here...
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/15/2009 6:32:55 PM | message detail
And of course, as has been said, that match was Nintendo vs. Square. SFF matches just don't cut it for excitement.
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greatone10 | Posted 4/15/2009 6:32:56 PM | message detail
Still, it's nice to see a match where a lead never crossed the 600 mark.
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Team Rocket Elite | Posted 4/15/2009 6:34:25 PM | message detail
I'm still catching up so I'm not sure if anyone has posted something like this but here's a graph of the poll updates:

http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/MKvsSM.PNG

Series 1 = GH
Series 2 = Sonic 3
Series 3 = SMK
Series 4 = SM

It's accurate up to the 21:29:05 update.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/15/2009 6:38:11 PM | message detail
Thanks TRE!
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plasmabeam | Posted 4/15/2009 6:38:31 PM | message detail
Another reason why CT/LTTP was epic was because updates were in real-time. You practically got sucked into the match after you slammed F5 for the 6,493rd time.

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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/15/2009 6:40:51 PM | message detail
The best anti-cheating method would be having no updates at all.
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trannyscience | Posted 4/15/2009 6:42:08 PM | message detail
sweet work, TRE.
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RPGGamer0 | Posted 4/15/2009 6:46:01 PM | message detail
Go Gunstar Heroes!

:(

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After 8: 28/32
RockMFR 5 | Posted 4/15/2009 6:51:47 PM | message detail
50 vote barrier back up!
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/15/2009 6:55:05 PM | message detail
mario kart is done
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Childproof | Posted 4/15/2009 6:55:19 PM | message detail
hmm will the second night vote be enough for SMAUS
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Today's prediction: Metroid 36.65% - Sonic 3 32.62% - Kart 24.72% - Gunstar Heroes 6.01% - Status: Bad
MetricTrout | Posted 4/15/2009 6:55:48 PM | message detail
Super Metroid pulling away with the night vote!
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trannyscience | Posted 4/15/2009 6:57:39 PM | message detail
hey I've heard people say SM is pulling away before

about half a dozen times, in fact!
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/15/2009 6:59:12 PM | message detail
Just like CT was pulling away from LTTP for a few hours, only to be foiled by a spike down to 0 each time! It did pull away eventually, though.
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Childproof | Posted 4/15/2009 7:00:11 PM | message detail
that's why I say it in question form, mr. tranny
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Today's prediction: Metroid 36.65% - Sonic 3 32.62% - Kart 24.72% - Gunstar Heroes 6.01% - Status: Bad
Master Moltar | Posted 4/15/2009 7:03:56 PM | message detail
SM pulling away with the second night vote would make sense

therefore expect mario kart to surge back any minute now
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Match 9 - Bracket: SM > Sonic 3 - Vote: Sonic 3 (26/32)
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/15/2009 7:05:00 PM | message detail
Damn you Molt-

Wait. SM won that update.

Trends...sense...making...buh...

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Just Some Person | Posted 4/15/2009 7:06:04 PM | message detail
Hoping for the SMK comeback at the very end. More drama plz.

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PegasusLover123 | Posted 4/15/2009 7:07:21 PM | message detail
A little question for you contest veterans.

How many "best game" matches had matchups close like this one (lead was never greater than 500 votes)?
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RPGuy96 | Posted 4/15/2009 7:08:42 PM | message detail
The wiki is a beautiful thing:

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Closest_wire_to_wire_matches
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/15/2009 7:10:11 PM | message detail
How many "best game" matches had matchups close like this one (lead was never greater than 500 votes)?

I'm not too sure if it was under 500 (this match had a lead of 598), but CT/LttP was close all day as was MGS/FTT, the closest wire to wire match was Frog vs. Liquid Snake.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: Sonic 3 > Super Metroid Points: 24/32
TTF | Posted 4/15/2009 7:10:59 PM | message detail
In b4 lock
PegasusLover123 | Posted 4/15/2009 7:12:22 PM | message detail
Well this match looks like it might be a record breaker in this case, SM and SMK been swinging all day, makes quite an interesting battle early on.
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"If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh." -Magus
charmander6000 | Posted 4/15/2009 7:13:08 PM | message detail
It'd be sad if SMK wins since SM was leading for over 95% of the match.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: Sonic 3 > Super Metroid Points: 24/32
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/15/2009 7:14:02 PM | message detail
Remember to vote for SoR2 tomorrow.
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Da_J | Posted 4/15/2009 7:14:03 PM | message detail
This should hit 500 soon.
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