GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 677
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/15/2009 12:23:37 AM | message detail |
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What's more surprising: Sonic collapsing, or Super Metroid actually
fending off Nintendo SFF while assisting in Sonic's collapsing? What a crazy-ass match. ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/ http://thengamer.com/xstats http://thengamer.com/stats ~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the match pics*~ http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them. X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process. rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it. For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything. --- .,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,. Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Devil May Cry |
| Zylo the wolf | Posted 4/15/2009 12:31:37 AM | message detail |
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I think it's crazy that SM isn't dominating this match. --- Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. FastFalcon05 > Me |
| M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/15/2009 8:37:58 AM | message detail |
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zoom --- http://gamebros.smackjeeves.com/ http://l33trappacat.smackjeeves.com/ |
| SirShaggles | Posted 4/15/2009 8:39:18 AM | message detail |
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t minus 5 hours until the big Sonic 3 > Super Metroid upset! --- ~Shaggy~ Bring me my broadsword and clear understanding |
| Tequilla Gundam | Posted 4/15/2009 8:44:07 AM | message detail |
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hahahaha shaggles --- Feel my truth. |
| irriadin | Posted 4/15/2009 8:44:28 AM | message detail |
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not looking good for Super Metroid... --- "I do read sometimes." Mat Cauthon, The Wheel of Time. |
| deadeyedllv | Posted 4/15/2009 8:44:44 AM | message detail |
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Huge cut! Mario Kart fired the red shell its been hanging on to all night. This one is over baby! --- You can't run away from trouble, there ain't no place that far. |
| red sox 777 | Posted 4/15/2009 8:45:36 AM | message detail |
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Ouch, 46 vote cut for Mario Kart, and that was the 4th update in a row it won. --- Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests. |
| -LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/15/2009 8:46:44 AM | message detail |
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100 vote barrier broken. Come on Super Metroid, don't get hit by the red shell. If Super Metroid could build up its lead during an American dominated time period (PHV and early FNV), then it should also win the ASV, which is more American dominated than the BSV and DSV. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ! |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 4/15/2009 8:50:42 AM | message detail |
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Sonic disappointing is never a surprise! Let's look at this by hour (with votes, since I'm too lazy to do percentages). 1:00 Super Metroid Up 183 2:00 Super Metroid Up 231 3:00 Super Metroid Up 166 4:00 Super Metroid Down 21 5:00 Super Metroid Down 64 6:00 Super Metroid Down 121 7:00 Super Metroid Down 56 8:00 Super Metroid Down 73 9:00 Super Metroid Up 3 10:00 Super Metroid Up 3 11:00 Super Metroid Down 116 Up until Now: Super Down 62 --- http://thengamer.com/guru/ |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/15/2009 8:51:22 AM | message detail |
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Not just down 62, SUPER DOWN 62 --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 4/15/2009 8:52:29 AM | message detail |
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That may be the best typo I ever made! This match is anyone's game at this point. --- http://thengamer.com/guru/ |
| RockMFR 5 | Posted 4/15/2009 8:52:39 AM | message detail |
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Is this the Europe ASV? Does Europe even have schools? --- Be a good little washing machine, now... o_0 The Ohio State University: We are so much better than m*ch!g@n. |
| The Mana Sword | Posted 4/15/2009 8:52:57 AM | message detail |
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Mario Kart's got this. --- Kleenex...at work! |
| red sox 777 | Posted 4/15/2009 8:53:28 AM | message detail |
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Is this the Europe ASV? Does Europe even have schools? Best post in a stats topic ever? --- Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests. |
| paulg235 | Posted 4/15/2009 8:55:56 AM | message detail |
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Is this the Europe ASV? Does Europe even have schools? These past two weeks have been the easter holidays, so... --- The Gamer In Me http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=158 |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/15/2009 8:56:11 AM | message detail |
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I think theoretically Europe ASV would be like, 11 AM and onwards right? --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
| red sox 777 | Posted 4/15/2009 8:57:53 AM | message detail |
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Oh, certainly, but "does Europe even have schools," taken literally,
asks if they have schools at all, not whether they are on vacation. .....And if I didn't know anything about Europe but how they vote in these polls, I'd be inclined to say that no, they don't! --- Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests. |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 4/15/2009 9:01:42 AM | message detail |
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Time | Gunstar | Sonic 3 | SMK . . . | Super Metroid 01:00 | 05.68% | 25.03% | 33.70% | 35.59% 02:00 | 05.67% | 24.49% | 33.36% | 36.49% 03:00 | 06.03% | 25.05% | 32.92% | 36.01% 04:00 | 05.55% | 25.04% | 34.48% | 34.94% 05:00 | 06.73% | 25.95% | 34.88% | 32.44% 06:00 | 05.29% | 26.07% | 36.64% | 32.01% 07:00 | 05.00% | 25.65% | 35.49% | 33.87% 08:00 | 04.69% | 26.90% | 34.92% | 33.48% 09:00 | 05.10% | 24.08% | 35.74% | 35.08% 10:00 | 04.76% | 24.54% | 35.28% | 35.42% 11:00 | 04.87% | 23.98% | 36.30% | 34.85% 12:00 | 04.79% | 24.46% | 36.19% | 34.56% I'd wager SMK takes the lead over the next three hours and build up a small cushion, looks like Super Metroid is going to need to the ASV vote to take this one. --- Mustache...and Green... http://backloggery.com/rpguy96 |
| deadeyedllv | Posted 4/15/2009 9:03:49 AM | message detail |
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I apologize if this has already been discussed, but humor me. It's safe to assume SMK and SM are both advancing. Who do you guys think will stand up best to LttP? I'm not convinced Doom will sneak by to get second, but it is possible. I have to give this to SMK. Metroid is gonna fold like nothing else with LttP. --- You can't run away from trouble, there ain't no place that far. |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 4/15/2009 9:05:15 AM | message detail |
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Unless it bombs tomorrow, Doom. --- http://thengamer.com/guru/ |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/15/2009 9:05:15 AM | message detail |
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Between the two Nintendo games, my money's on Metroid. It has a
hardcore fanbase, whereas SMK strikes me as the ultimate Nintendo
casual draw. --- Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/15/2009 9:06:05 AM | message detail |
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If Doom avoids the tripling or barely gets tripled, it goes in as the clear favorite in my book. --- Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| red sox 777 | Posted 4/15/2009 9:08:51 AM | message detail |
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LTTP will kill them both. I'd say Mario Kart is the kind of game that
would get killed worse, while SM's fanbase is more loyal. But the
hardcore fanbase theory has failed so many times that I'd be hesistant
to use it to support anything, although it is probably actually
relevant here as it really is an SFF situation. I have Doom advancing
though, and I'm happy with that- Triple SFF is a strong force,
especially when one of the games is LTTP. --- Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests. |
| deadeyedllv | Posted 4/15/2009 9:10:53 AM | message detail |
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Yeah we'll get a pretty good idea of Doom's strength tomorrow. Watch it lose to DKC. XD. --- You can't run away from trouble, there ain't no place that far. |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/15/2009 9:12:20 AM | message detail |
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Super Metroid got 26% on LttP in 2004. If Doom gets anywhere near that
percentage (I'd take low 20s), it's looking good. Heck, I think it can
get quadrupled and still go in with a reasonable shot. This is
basically the character version of Cloud/Squall/Sora/Mewtwo - I'm
hoping! --- Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| Majin Lou | Posted 4/15/2009 9:13:22 AM | message detail |
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Heh, Super Metroid isn't wanting to give up that lead. --- All hail FastFalcon, until next time! Pokemon Platinum FC: 1934 6546 0293 |
| deadeyedllv | Posted 4/15/2009 9:13:53 AM | message detail |
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It is inevitable. The red shell has been shot. --- You can't run away from trouble, there ain't no place that far. |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/15/2009 9:15:42 AM | message detail |
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If Mario Kart had its way, it would be a blue shell. And they'd both go sky high. And Sonic would get a lightning bolt and win. --- Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 4/15/2009 9:18:13 AM | message detail |
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No, Gunstar Heroes would get forty blue shells in three minutes and win. --- Mustache...and Green... http://backloggery.com/rpguy96 |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/15/2009 9:18:47 AM | message detail |
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Make it happen, Nintendo! --- Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| KanzarisKelshen | Posted 4/15/2009 9:22:22 AM | message detail |
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Hasn't a match similar to LttP/SM/MK happened before? Oh, yes. http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Link_vs_Crono_vs_Mario_vs_Samus_2008 We can probably use that as a benchmark for how things will go. LttP is probably going to SFF SM hard, MK will leech a few votes from LttP, and Doom has to hope it can do as well as Crono did. In other words, unless LttP underperforms spectacularly or Doom is absolutely on fire, its probably going to be LttP>SM, with MK tailing after SM, and Doom relegated to 5%. |
| red sox 777 | Posted 4/15/2009 9:24:10 AM | message detail |
| The problem is that LTTP should SFF Super Metroid
and Super Mario Kart much harder than Link did to Mario and Samus. SM
got blasted down to 26% against LTTP last contest. --- Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests. |
| deadeyedllv | Posted 4/15/2009 9:27:03 AM | message detail |
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Guess: SM leads by 12 votes next update. --- You can't run away from trouble, there ain't no place that far. |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/15/2009 9:27:21 AM | message detail |
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From: red sox 777 | #033 Yep. In a 1v1 character setting, Link can't come close to doubling Mario or Samus. In 4ways, he doubled Mario and easily doubled Samus. Now, consider that in a 1v1 games setting, LttP triples Super Metroid and probably beats up Mario Kart worse. Imagine what's gonna happen to those games next round. They may get quadrupled. --- Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/15/2009 9:29:32 AM | message detail |
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Heh, SMK and SM's percentages didn't change at all that update, with only a 4-vote gain. Neat. Sonic's still falling. --- http://gamebros.smackjeeves.com/ http://l33trappacat.smackjeeves.com/ |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/15/2009 9:31:13 AM | message detail |
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Mario Kart currently has over 58% on Sonic. I hope Street Fighter II
rebounds for an easy win next round, because this makes it look so sad.
--- Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| KanzarisKelshen | Posted 4/15/2009 9:31:29 AM | message detail |
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True, but Doom is no CT. The analysis I made is probably a bit rash,
but unless Doom overperforms and leaves SoR in the dust (with anything
Nintendo in the match, DKC is getting crushed), its probably not going
to advance. Still going to be close, though. There's a powerhouse, a
casual draw, a hardcore draw, and the chance for an upset. We'll see if
the last one holds up soon... PS: Speaking about upsets, any chance SoR wins its match? Just like Doom, its got a fanbase that won't be hurt by leeching, and its got the console appeal. Any guesses about how that's gonna go? |
| deadeyedllv | Posted 4/15/2009 9:32:11 AM | message detail |
| So who do you guys think will have the better ASV?
They're both Nintendo, but is Mario or Samus considered to have a
better ASV? Or are they the same? I'm not saying the voting patterns
will match the characters, but there has been some of that this
contest. --- You can't run away from trouble, there ain't no place that far. |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/15/2009 9:34:04 AM | message detail |
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I think all Doom needs to do is avoid the quadrupling tomorrow to go in
with a very fighting shot. Remember that against three 100% Nintendo
games and stand-out factor on its side, Doom should
perform better relative to LttP in Round 2. As for Streets of Rage,
it's got no chance. It's just way too niche to handle something as
recognized as Doom. --- Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| deadeyedllv | Posted 4/15/2009 9:34:59 AM | message detail |
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PS: Speaking about upsets, any chance SoR wins its match? Just like
Doom, its got a fanbase that won't be hurt by leeching, and its got the
console appeal. Any guesses about how that's gonna go? The way things are going for me this contest I'm the last person to ask, but I just don't see SoR getting second. Doom probably has a similar sized dedicated fanbase, but will get many more casual voters. Like I said though, I'm the last person to be asking at this point. --- You can't run away from trouble, there ain't no place that far. |
| ImplicitContent | Posted 4/15/2009 9:35:45 AM | message detail |
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SM better hold on dammit... I need to exploit the scoring system! --- all hail ec your lord and savior |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/15/2009 9:36:00 AM | message detail |
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I think you should consider it a huge victory if Streets of Rage manages 10%. --- Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| KanzarisKelshen | Posted 4/15/2009 9:37:26 AM | message detail |
| SM is standing up pretty good right now, but it needs to build a bigger lead or it'll get pulverized by the ASV. A niche (but reknowned) game versus a casual game doesn't bode well for the niche game when it comes to who the kiddies vote for. |
| jonthomson | Posted 4/15/2009 9:39:28 AM | message detail |
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wait, when i leave the house this morning metroid is comfortable, wat --- Jon Thomson - 1:10 pure 1:43 100% - HKP: 179 Super Metroid's Path To Glory: R1 vs. Sonic 3, Gunstar Heroes, Super Mario Kart |
| HotSkitty | Posted 4/15/2009 9:44:32 AM | message detail |
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Whoa, 5 vote lead for Super Metroid. --- Never gonna give you up. |
| KanzarisKelshen | Posted 4/15/2009 9:44:39 AM | message detail |
| Dang, MK is only 5 votes away from SM! SM needs more votes RIGHT NOW, or it's going to fold. D: |
| eaglesarebeasts | Posted 4/15/2009 9:48:03 AM | message detail |
| Considering that almost everyone figured that Super Metroid was stronger than Sonic 3, and with the fact that now it seems that SMK is just as strong as SM, its not that suprising that Sonic is losing. I guess its the fact that he's losing by so much is shocking. |
| ImplicitContent | Posted 4/15/2009 9:48:50 AM | message detail |
| typically whoever does well right now loses the
ASV vote pretty handily though. Obviously trends are going to be harder
to predict accurately with 3 games with similar trends, but I think I
still like SM to win. By the time I get back to see it'll probably be
over though. --- all hail ec your lord and savior |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 4/15/2009 9:49:39 AM | message detail |
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Did you see that SUPER METROID IS STUFFING! STUFFING! (no idea who wins this) --- http://thengamer.com/guru/ |
