GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 676
| transience | Posted 4/14/2009 10:26:14 PM | message detail |
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yeah I'm not sure if that's "SFF". okay what's up with this match, 50 vote gains and then stalls and then 45 vote gains and then stalls --- xyzzy http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/7033/trannyanalysis.png |
| LinkLegend27 | Posted 4/14/2009 10:27:54 PM | message detail |
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I thought Mario Kart would bomb. --- Fortes in Unitate. I ain't conceited only positive and way better |
| eaglesarebeasts | Posted 4/14/2009 10:28:47 PM | message detail |
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HUGE SONIC 3 UPDATE!!!! not really |
| Masato_Tanaka | Posted 4/14/2009 10:44:28 PM | message detail |
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WTF is Sonic doin. Wow, this is just weird. --- The Straight Up G The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 4/14/2009 10:54:38 PM | message detail |
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I don't think 44.5% on the weaker of the two options guarantees
advancing, though it could certainly happen. Given 2004's ratio of
Mario 3 to Mario World (which I don't think has much reason to change),
this year's FF would get 38.2% on Mario 3, which I think puts it out of
contention for first. That seems like way too much ground to make up
(consider that LttP/FFVII match - with less of a gap and triple-LFF
LttP is a big upset pick, and rightly so). The ground between Mario
World and FF is bridgeable, especially if Mario 3 can SFF Mario World
to a significant degree, but not a given. This is more or less analogous for FFIV, except after yesterday I think FF > FFIV (and I guess today reinforces that a little bit). --- Mustache...and Green... http://backloggery.com/rpguy96 |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/14/2009 10:55:56 PM | message detail |
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How does today reinforce that? --- Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/8zkzm1.gif Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 4/14/2009 10:59:41 PM | message detail |
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Just in that Sonic 1 is probably > Sonic 3. Not much, but there
probably exists some measure of "respect" for the progenitor of the
series. cn mentioned that in passing a few days ago, I think, and the
performances of Mario 1, Zelda 1, Final Fantasy 1, Sonic 1, and even
Metroid 1 seem to bear that out. But that's fairly minor compared to how FFIV compared to MM3, which is what really makes me think FF > FFIV is a reasonable assumption (while I thought otherwise before the contest). --- Mustache...and Green... http://backloggery.com/rpguy96 |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/14/2009 11:04:43 PM | message detail |
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Good point about respect for the originator, though I think FFIV did a
good job yesterday, especially considering MM's picture advantage
(really, FF had the worst pic of the bunch). It's not a real Nintendo
game, so it's not going to be auto-spanking the Mega Mans and Sonics of
the world, and I thought its 50% was impressive with that taken into
consideration. Either way, the FF/FFIV encounter will be all about
which way the core fanbase shifts. --- Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/8zkzm1.gif Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| ZFS | Posted 4/14/2009 11:07:43 PM | message detail |
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I don't know that Sonic 1 would really be doing any better today. --- http://i41.tinypic.com/zk6ct3.gif |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/14/2009 11:08:39 PM | message detail |
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Which means that FF1's "progenitor boost" will be nullified. Bah, can't believe I left the most important part out! --- Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/8zkzm1.gif Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| Master Moltar | Posted 4/14/2009 11:11:40 PM | message detail |
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aww yeah sexy metroid update that's the kind of update i want to leave on, hoping for more of those overnight! --- Moltar Status: you can't hide forever Match 9 - Bracket: SM > Sonic 3 - Vote: Sonic 3 (26/32) |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 4/14/2009 11:12:00 PM | message detail |
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MM3 ended up with 41% on FFIV; while that's certainly not a bad
performance (to the tune of auto-spanking), setting FF = FFIV gives MM3
36.5% on SMW. That seems too high given Sonic 2's 29.5% on SMW way back
when. (Extending the comparison by setting MM2 = MM3 gives Pac-Man the
same percentage on SMW as it got on Metroid 1 in 2004; this is fraught
with more potentially bad assumptions but isn't a point in FFIV's
favour either.) The picture could well have had something to do with that, though, and I'd happily be proven wrong by FFIV beating FF (if it's close I'll probably throw my vote to FFIV rather than SMW). --- Mustache...and Green... http://backloggery.com/rpguy96 |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/14/2009 11:16:58 PM | message detail |
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But that's 36.5% before any SFF. I'm not sure exactly what level of SFF
is required to drive the weaker game from 36.5% to <30%, but we all
know that Mario World would stomp MM3 with quite a bit in a direct
confrontation. --- Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/8zkzm1.gif Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| creativename | Posted 4/14/2009 11:17:54 PM | message detail |
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Wakes up, looks at poll results... What Am I still asleep? What is this?? Super Mario Kart smashing Sonic 3?? I thought Sonic 3 might be weaker than the other Sonics, but *this*? This is baffling to me. How is SMK this strong? Hey Mario Kart - why weren't you this strong back when I picked you Mega Man in the series contest! Really - I don't get how it's beating a Genesis Sonic game, especially when competing against a powerful fellow Nintendo SNES game. I haven't been this surprised by anything yet this contest. --- Save_Us.RAT BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/14/2009 11:18:57 PM | message detail |
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Where've you been dude we're all taking Zack Fair over Sonic in the next Character Battle! --- Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/8zkzm1.gif Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| whatev | Posted 4/14/2009 11:18:57 PM | message detail |
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Wasn't Sonic 2/SMW seen as evidence (before today, at least) for the
Nintendo auto-spanking that Sonic suffers from? I don't understand why
you're using that match. Also, the random spikes that Super Metroid
gets are rather annoying. Not gonna call shenanigans quite yet, though! --- The world is toroidal. Exposed armpits are sexy. |
| creativename | Posted 4/14/2009 11:20:19 PM | message detail |
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That seems too high given Sonic 2's 29.5% What makes you say this, especially after today? Now I do think Sonic 2>Sonic 3, but still, this doesn't reflect too well on it. --- Save_Us.RAT BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN |
| creativename | Posted 4/14/2009 11:21:41 PM | message detail |
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I'm liking this term auto-spanking. --- Save_Us.RAT BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN |
| Team Rocket Elite | Posted 4/14/2009 11:23:28 PM | message detail |
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Really - I don't get how it's beating a Genesis Sonic game,
especially when competing against a powerful fellow Nintendo SNES game.
I haven't been this surprised by anything yet this contest. The idea that's being thrown around is that Sonic games collpase when they meet Nintendo even if it is Super Metroid and Super Mario Kart. It doesn't really explain why Super Mario Kart is so close to Super Metroid, though. --- Shall I take you with me? To the place in this town where wishes come true... |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 4/14/2009 11:25:35 PM | message detail |
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SMK just had way more strength than we expected. Which is reasonable,
considering we've never Mario Kart tested in one of these. Sure there's
the series contest, but I'd expect singular MK entrants to be more
potent than the series anyway. Crap, I just realized that this effectively kills my Star Fox 64 upset. --- http://thengamer.com/guru/ |
| HaRRicH | Posted 4/14/2009 11:27:47 PM | message detail |
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Well, if we're all pretty certain MK64 > SMK (>>?) and SMK's
surprising here...how close do you think MK64 can get to Goldeneye? --- Prototype Shorthand, do you speak it?! |
| Xuxon | Posted 4/14/2009 11:28:25 PM | message detail |
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Crap, I just realized that this effectively kills my Star Fox 64 upset. This just made me realize, in my gut oracle picks, I had SMK > Sonic 3 by more than MK64 > SF64. |
| Lopen | Posted 4/14/2009 11:30:33 PM | message detail |
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Yeah I have Star Fox 64 too. Been bettin on the wrong horses this
contest! Well at least I bet against Sonic all the way-- and it looks
like it'll work after this thrashing. MK2 > Sonic 2 in R2 lives on! --- So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better! FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost. |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/14/2009 11:31:24 PM | message detail |
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Mario Kart got a bad break in the series contest. I think it
underperformed against Mega Man (granted, it probably doesn't look too
bad in the X-Stats since I also think MM overperformed on Final
Fantasy), and I feel it could have really shaken things up had it gone
up against a series it contrasted with. I reckon it would have
performed brilliantly against something like Resident Evil. --- Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/8zkzm1.gif Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| Xuxon | Posted 4/14/2009 11:33:28 PM | message detail |
| Uh Lopen how does MK2 > Sonic 2 in round 2 even matter? |
| greatone10 | Posted 4/14/2009 11:34:45 PM | message detail |
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I wouldn't necessarily say this outright kills the Star Fox upset, as I
am banking on Star Fox 64 being one of the stronger N64 games more than
Mario Kart's weakness (I am also hoping that Star Fox weathers the FF7
storm better than MK 64), however I agree it is less likely. --- Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09. vs. Super Mario RPG, Goldeneye, Resident Evil 2. Ugh, my top 3 games in the same match. |
| creativename | Posted 4/14/2009 11:36:08 PM | message detail |
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Given 2004's ratio of Mario 3 to Mario World (which I don't think
has much reason to change), this year's FF would get 38.2% on Mario 3 That's pretty interesting. Now I think SMW might be a bit underrated due to minor SFF against Chrono Trigger, but 38.2/40.4/2=47.28%. If you assume that shows the relative improvement of Nintendo over Square since 2K4, OoT was at 46.18% against FF7 last time, so it would get 48.84% this time. I don't think that math means much, because again I think SMW was underrated and these margins are too small to mean much in 4packs. But I have thought that FF7 vs. OoT was going to be really close this year. (consider that LttP/FFVII match - with less of a gap and triple-LFF LttP is a big upset pick, and rightly so) I thought so as well, but for some reason most everyone seemed to think 60/40 was somehow too large a gap to overcome. I think people just have a mental hurdle that bars them from seeing FF7 fail to take 1st so early on, even though just like I said then, we've seen far wackier 4pack results than that. I don't know what's gonna happen there, but I'm quite concerned for FF7 in that match. This is more or less analogous for FFIV, except after yesterday I think FF > FFIV (and I guess today reinforces that a little bit). How does today reinforce that? (OK nevermind, yo already asked exactly that! eerily in the same words I typed before I read his post) I don't think today relates to that at all, although like I've said I could see FF>FFIV. I'd give the edge to FFIV, but not a huge one. --- Save_Us.RAT BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN |
| Lopen | Posted 4/14/2009 11:39:16 PM | message detail |
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Uh Lopen how does MK2 > Sonic 2 in round 2 even matter? Eh? Insinuating that the stupid Zelda game takes second there? Don't make me laugh !! --- So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better! FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost. |
| Xuxon | Posted 4/14/2009 11:40:56 PM | message detail |
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Even better - insinuating that the stupid Mega Man game takes second. The reason I took ALttP > FF7 in that spot so easily is because I never thought of it as a 60/40 match in 2004, let alone now. If I actually thought it would be a 60/40 match now, I probably wouldn't have taken it. |
| creativename | Posted 4/14/2009 11:42:28 PM | message detail |
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The idea that's being thrown around is that Sonic games collpase
when they meet Nintendo even if it is Super Metroid and Super Mario
Kart. It doesn't really explain why Super Mario Kart is so close to
Super Metroid, though. Yeah you're right, I don't know about that at all. Sonic 3 weakness is a lot better explanation than that. Mario Kart got a bad break in the series contest. I think it underperformed against Mega Man (granted, it probably doesn't look too bad in the X-Stats since I also think MM overperformed on Final Fantasy), and I feel it could have really shaken things up had it gone up against a series it contrasted with. I reckon it would have performed brilliantly against something like Resident Evil. I don't think MK underperformed there, and I don't think Mega Man overperformed. But while I have some belief in Mario Kart games (so many hours playing Mario Kart 64 and Goldeneye multiplayer gack in college!), I wouldn't have pegged SMK over a Genesis Sonic game back then, and definitely not this close to freakin' Super Metroid. --- Save_Us.RAT BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN |
| -LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/14/2009 11:42:56 PM | message detail |
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Finally checked the poll results. Super Metroid > Super Mario Kart. Hahaha, didn't see this one coming. I can still get 2 points for Super Metroid > Sonic 3 in my bracket. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ! |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/14/2009 11:43:41 PM | message detail |
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2 straight cuts for MK... a trend? --- http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/378/86b7a0dada9b6d09cd92aaaa2fed5c0f425774f6.gif |
| whatev | Posted 4/14/2009 11:45:09 PM | message detail |
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Well, it wasn't even 60-40 in 2004. Chrono Trigger managed to get 41.76 on FFVII, and there might have been some SFF there. --- The world is toroidal. Exposed armpits are sexy. |
| creativename | Posted 4/14/2009 11:47:45 PM | message detail |
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I'd never have picked LttP>Sonic 3 if not for expecting Super
Metroid to get killed by SFF (and wouldn't have thought today's match
all that close if not for SMK LFF either). Stupid hedgehog. I'm still concerned for Super Metroid - how many people had LttP>SMK anyway?? Can't be too many. I hope Super Metroid pulls that out, great game. But man LttP is gonna kill that poll. Hey wait. Doom could conceivable take 2nd. Now I don't think it's strong enough, even with a badly SFFed Super Metroid...but then, Super Metroid/SMK are not only badly SFFed but they also LFF each other a bit. Hmmm. --- Save_Us.RAT BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/14/2009 11:47:47 PM | message detail |
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3 straight cuts you're done for metroid --- http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/378/86b7a0dada9b6d09cd92aaaa2fed5c0f425774f6.gif |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/14/2009 11:49:37 PM | message detail |
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The Europeans are starting to wake up DAMN THEIR SOCIALIZED HEALTHCARE --- Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/8zkzm1.gif Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 4/14/2009 11:50:16 PM | message detail |
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I've had Doom in 2nd for R2 since the beginning. LTTP/SM/SMK? Easy 2nd place for Doom there. --- http://thengamer.com/guru/ |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/14/2009 11:51:45 PM | message detail |
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From: KamikazePotato | #387 I thought the same thing, but then Metroid killed Contra. Still think Doom has a shot, but if I could change my bracket and have Metroid in there, I probably would. --- Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/8zkzm1.gif Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| Xuxon | Posted 4/14/2009 11:52:00 PM | message detail |
| I had Doom until the last moment, where I changed to Super Metroid. Honestly, I think it has a great shot if the match happens, plus with the possibility of DKC advancing SM seems most likely to me. |
| greatone10 | Posted 4/14/2009 11:54:01 PM | message detail |
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From: PartOfYourWorld | Posted: 4/14/2009 11:51:45 PM | #388 I'd say Doom has a better shot than Contra did, especially when you add Super Mario Kart to the mix. Of course, I thought Suck 3 would resist SFF better than this. --- Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09. vs. Super Mario RPG, Goldeneye, Resident Evil 2. Ugh, my top 3 games in the same match. |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 4/14/2009 11:54:43 PM | message detail |
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I don't see how Contra is comparable to Doom at all. Contra is a
sidescrolling shooter on the NES, Doom is a 3D Shooter on the PC. --- http://thengamer.com/guru/ |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/14/2009 11:56:51 PM | message detail |
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If anything, half life/duke nukem is closer to doom --- http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/378/86b7a0dada9b6d09cd92aaaa2fed5c0f425774f6.gif |
| Xuxon | Posted 4/14/2009 11:57:11 PM | message detail |
| They're comparable in that neither is strong as the Metroid they're facing, and relying on said Metroid to be LFFed by Zelda. |
| Xuxon | Posted 4/14/2009 11:57:59 PM | message detail |
| Sorry, SFFed by Zelda. I often don't really think about which term I'm using there. |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/14/2009 11:58:42 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, that's the one thing that gives me hope. Doom is a lot more
"anti-Nintendo" than Contra is and should have good stand-out factor.
The main thing that scares me is how easily Metroid disposed of Contra,
Zelda be damned. From: Xuxon | #389 DKC... now there's a game I can't see advance. Hard to imagine anyone voting for it with LttP there. On top of that, DK has a pretty terrible poll history in general. --- Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/8zkzm1.gif Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 4/14/2009 11:59:00 PM | message detail |
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Ah. Well in that case, I think Doom would do much better relatively
against SM than Contra would against Metroid, and keep in mind that
LoZ/Metroid was a two-way split. LTTP/SM/SMK is a three-way split, and
last time that happened Zack Fair almost beat Mario. --- http://thengamer.com/guru/ |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/15/2009 12:00:57 AM | message detail |
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I cannot wait for FF1/FF4, if only for all the math that's on the line. **** the contest, I want to see RPGuy write a master's thesis on this ****. --- .,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,. Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Devil May Cry |
| creativename | Posted 4/15/2009 12:01:12 AM | message detail |
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The Oracle consensus had a perfect prediction on the last match! Absolutely unreal. A one in a million thing. I had Doom until the last moment, where I changed to Super Metroid. Honestly, I think it has a great shot if the match happens, plus with the possibility of DKC advancing SM seems most likely to me. DKC isn't advancing unless Doom absolutely blows, because DKC will blow. DKC advancing would surprised me even more than today's result. --- Save_Us.RAT BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/15/2009 12:10:46 AM | message detail |
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I personally don't think this result says much about MMX/LA. --- *is Dranze* BGE2 - Today: FFIV > MM3 - Points: 20/28 Vote: MM3 |
| FastFalcon05 | Posted 4/15/2009 12:13:53 AM | message detail |
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I should be studying for a Differential Equations test in 7 hours, but
I'm going to come out of lurking to say that I think Donkey Kong
Country has a decent chance. I think the most important thing that's
consistently overlooked is actually something we knew three years ago
(or whenever that last game contest was) and that's that games do not
equal characters. I'm also a big fan of the recently suggested "respect
for the original" theory, and, even though Donkey Kong Country is not
the original DK, I think for many it is their first introduction to the
ape - and quite a positive, memorable one at that. Also, I have SM > MK; here's hoping! --- One of the most troublesome things in life is that what you do or do not want has little to do with what does or does not happen. 4983-4640-3352 Brawl Code |
