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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 675

Childproof | Posted 4/14/2009 12:44:19 PM | message detail
I'm surprised ... how is MM3 winning the ASV
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Today's prediction: FFIV 51.75% - Top Man 32.86% - Barf! 9.37% - Crystalis 6.02% - Status: Good
swirIdude | Posted 4/14/2009 12:45:24 PM | message detail
Everything since the contest began makes me feel worse about that SMK > Sonic 3 pick.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/14/2009 12:45:29 PM | message detail

From: Childproof | #401
I'm surprised ... how is MM3 winning the ASV


How would it not?
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White_Turtle | Posted 4/14/2009 12:46:50 PM | message detail
L-block wasn't constant. His bandwagon gained in strength with each win which made him score similar numbers on stronger opponents.
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/14/2009 12:51:24 PM | message detail
I sent Bacon a match pics feedback ticket which he responded to.

Message From KamikazePotato on 04/11/2009

I assume the dimensions for R2 match pics will be 140 by 75, like last contest. Anything else? We'd like to get started on them now that every game in R1 has a match pic submitted.


Message From GameFAQs on 04/13/2009

Will be, yes, form will be up in the next few.


So he seems intent on giving us some more feedback this time around, which is nice.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/14/2009 12:53:39 PM | message detail

From: White_Turtle | #398
he probably just knows Battletoads's meme status and looked into it himself with the use of his favourite new toy. only this board could spin getting numbers into somehow being a bad thing.

Which brings me to my next question. Why is Battletoads considered a "meme" and why is 4chan voting for it? Mudkip I can understand because of that stupid fad, but why Battletoads in a contest setting where it has no chance to advance?


dude

its battletoads
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/14/2009 12:56:15 PM | message detail
L-block wasn't constant. His bandwagon gained in strength with each win which made him score similar numbers on stronger opponents.

Which means its percents were constant.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFII (IV) > MM3 Points: 20/28
White_Turtle | Posted 4/14/2009 1:11:28 PM | message detail
Yeah, percents were pretty constant, but you have to look at the situation/competition. Mega Man 3 wouldn't be getting 36% if this was OoT/FF7/CT, which is what buddy back there was trying to imply.
Just Some Person | Posted 4/14/2009 1:49:00 PM | message detail
you know how FF4 was gonna get 50%?

Yep.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/14/2009 3:05:07 PM | message detail
Crystalis just doesn't want to go under 4%.
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/14/2009 3:09:22 PM | message detail
The winner of FFIV/FF looks really good to advance far into this tournament.

Last year Kirby was able to go from 43.34% to 54.60% against Big Boss, right now Mega Man 3 is getting 40.82% against Final Fantasy IV. Had the fourth opponent been something else we could've had a match.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFII (IV) > MM3 Points: 20/28
ZFS | Posted 4/14/2009 3:09:49 PM | message detail
How about that FFIV

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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/14/2009 3:49:40 PM | message detail
It's hard to call anything about that round 2 match. I mean, in 2007, Ryu Hayabusa beat Riku/Roxas combined by a lot, then got dominated by solo Riku in round 2.
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/14/2009 3:50:53 PM | message detail
That was Solid Snake though.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFII (IV) > MM3 Points: 20/28
charmander6000 | Posted 4/14/2009 4:05:40 PM | message detail
Match IX: Gunstar Heroes vs. Sonic the Hedgehog 3 vs. Super Mario Kart vs. Super Metroid

Information:

Name: Gunstar Heroes
Year: 1993
System: GEN
2004 Performance: 8.85% against LoZ: A Link to the Past

Name: Sonic the Hedgehog 3
Year: 1994
System: GEN
2004 Performance: Did not enter

Name: Super Mario Kart
Year: 1992
System: SNES
2004 Performance: Did not enter

Name: Super Metroid
Year: 1994
System: SNES
2004 Performance: 83.29% against Phantasy Star IV, 26.00% against LoZ: A Link to the Past

Analysis

The third division brings us to the heat of the SNES vs. GEN wars. At this time there was no way at telling who would win that battle and both companies were pumping out game after game in order to one up the competition. This is our first match that the board has been hyping for with three of these games attempting to place.

The forgotten game in this match is none other than Gunstar Heroes, the game that was destroyed by LoZ: A Link to the Past in the previous contest. Kind of sad though since Gunstar Heroes is one of the best Genesis games out there, I guess since the fall of Sega anything unrelated to Sonic is destined to do badly in this contest. Also with Sonic 3 in the poll Gunstar Heroes is going to get crushed. I’ve always been a big supporter for new fodder over old fodder, but Gunstar Heroes doesn’t deserve to be this weak and besides the only other Genesis games that I can think off the top of my head that aren’t already being represented by another game in the series are, ToeJam & Earl, Ristar and Golden Axe.

The Mario Kart series has always been a personal favourite of mine, but I don’t see how it can advance here. Sure it was possible if the Sonic series were to choke, but after Sonic 1’s performance I don’t see that happening. Not only is the series untested, it also has to contend with Super Metroid in order to do well here. However I don’t see Super Mario Kart being SFF that much by Super Metroid and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it hang with the other two games, just that it won’t be close enough to be in contention.

Super Metroid was the favourite at the beginning of the contest though after Sonic 1’s performance people are beginning to reconsider. Overall Super Metroid is probably the strongest game though it has to contend with Super Mario Kart in this match. We have literally no information on this game except that it will be crushed next round by LoZ: A Link to the Past. I still think Super Metroid should be the favourite as Sonic has Nintendo-like properties and could be affected enough to let Super Metroid win.

Despite that I have Sonic 3 winning the match because no matter how Nintendo Sonic 3 may be it still less Nintendo than Super Metroid and Super Mario Kart. Had this been Sonic 3 & Knuckles I would be more confident in my pick, but Sonic 3 should be a bit stronger than the original, though not as strong as Sonic 2. This pick was originally more about my lack of faith in Metroid series rather than my faith in Sonic series though ever since Sonic 1 I think these three games can have some respectable strength.

As much as I like Super Mario Kart all it is going to do is take a bunch of percent and weigh down Super Metroid. People will still call this a three horse race, but by the end of the first hour it should be apparent that one of these games will not be in the match.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Sonic the Hedgehog 3 > Super Metroid

charmander6000’s Prediction: Sonic the Hedgehog 3 – 34.32%, Super Metroid – 32.47%, Super Mario Kart – 26.83%, Gunstar Heroes – 6.38%

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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFII (IV) > MM3 Points: 20/28
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/14/2009 4:07:05 PM | message detail
You'd have to consider Sonic 3 to be pretty close to Super Metroid to take it here. Gunstar Heroes will be SFFing Sonic 3 somewhat.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/14/2009 4:07:41 PM | message detail

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #416
You'd have to consider Sonic 3 to be pretty close to Super Metroid to take it here. Gunstar Heroes will be SFFing Sonic 3 somewhat.


turtle post
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/14/2009 4:07:55 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #414
That was Solid Snake though.


In that situation though, Snake would be hurting Riku even worse if SFF followed any logic.
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trannyscience | Posted 4/14/2009 4:08:56 PM | message detail
if GH hurts Sonic, SMK hurts Metroid so it's a moot point
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/14/2009 4:08:59 PM | message detail
Wow, he gives us a detailed breakdown on a non-critical match where a distant third place had a known rally that resulted in a small amount of votes but didn't give us a word on one of MGS' many cheatfests or CT's hail mary comebacks.

lol sbfailen



I have a suggestion for a new feature or change to an existing feature on GameFAQs.
Message From HaRRicH on 04/14/2009

There has been a lot of discussion on Board 8 about 4chan interfering for Battletoads and Prince of Persia, and we've complained about interference before. Fortunately, neither of them are advancing today because of it, but we still have a quick graph that's based on each time the Poll of the Day updates its votes that Battletoads has some suspiciously big updates...

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=3452&type=2&seconds=60&max=0

...could you give some of those suspicious times a double-check and see if they were fair votes or just a bunch of rallied people? Maybe it could help lessen the effect of individual people that can directly interfere with this or future matches.
Message From GameFAQs on 04/14/2009

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=49072085
Feedback Status: Complete



I feel better about the contest's legitimacy, helped spark a SB-topic, AND annoyed BT?

Yeah, I'm happy. =)
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ZenOfThunder | Posted 4/14/2009 4:18:30 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/bge09/bge09-09.jpg
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/14/2009 4:19:20 PM | message detail
that sonic 3 pic seems kinda off. like sonic should be in the center
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/14/2009 4:20:12 PM | message detail
Super Metroid loses there.
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jonthomson | Posted 4/14/2009 4:20:29 PM | message detail
counting down the hours until super metroid's one day of glory. from tomorrow i'm on the starcraft bandwagon
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Jon Thomson - 1:10 pure 1:43 100% - HKP: 179
Super Metroid's Path To Glory: R1 vs. Sonic 3, Gunstar Heroes, Super Mario Kart
ZFS | Posted 4/14/2009 4:21:02 PM | message detail
Super Metroid pic is great.

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RPGuy96 | Posted 4/14/2009 4:21:08 PM | message detail
Eh? That's a pretty awesome Super Metroid pic. All three contenders look pretty good.
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Master Moltar | Posted 4/14/2009 4:21:51 PM | message detail
gunstar heroes get outta here

making a great pic less great
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Match 8 - Bracket: FF4 > MM3 - Vote: MM3 (22/28)
HaRRicH | Posted 4/14/2009 4:22:33 PM | message detail
Yeah, Sonic's just waiting to be run over there. He should have been more centered.

Also, bleh at Gunstar. I figured it would definitely get a sprite/in-game shot...don't really care for the art though, and it's so white!
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Prototype
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/14/2009 4:24:05 PM | message detail
Yeah, Sonic's just waiting to be run over there.

Explains the look on Mario's face!
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ZenOfThunder | Posted 4/14/2009 4:25:28 PM | message detail
I made this mock pic for Gunstar a while ago:

http://img.imgcake.com/Zen/request_5x0.png

Maybe I should have submitted it this year.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/14/2009 4:26:19 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1528

Old poll, but this was around the Game Contest anyway.

Super Metroid beat Metroid Prime pretty handily despite Prime being the only 3D game there, so I'm kinda feeling good about SM > Sonic 3. I still think it'll be a close match, though.
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BGE2 - Today: FFIV > MM3 - Points: 20/28 Vote: MM3
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/14/2009 4:28:26 PM | message detail
Super Metroid definitely has the pic advantage there.

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HaRRicH | Posted 4/14/2009 4:29:02 PM | message detail
What do you guys think would have happened in 2004 if it was SM who got to face LoZ:WW instead of MP...and does that opinion change if SM/LoZ:WW have that match now?
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Prototype
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/14/2009 4:31:52 PM | message detail
SirBinro did Super Mario Kart, and Coffee Ninja did Super Metroid. Not sure who did Sonic 3 or Gunstar Heroes.

I would've taken SM>WW in 2004. Today...not sure.

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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/14/2009 4:47:33 PM | message detail
if GH hurts Sonic, SMK hurts Metroid so it's a moot point

My point is that most people are considering SMK/Metroid SFF but are ignoring GH taking a (small) chunk of Sonic's support. Could be the difference between Sonic 3 > Metroid and Metroid > Sonic 3
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/14/2009 4:49:28 PM | message detail

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #435
if GH hurts Sonic, SMK hurts Metroid so it's a moot point

My point is that most people are considering SMK/Metroid SFF but are ignoring GH taking a (small) chunk of Sonic's support. Could be the difference between Sonic 3 > Metroid and Metroid > Sonic 3


http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Link_to_the_Past_vs_Gunstar_Heroes_2004

right....
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Team Rocket Elite | Posted 4/14/2009 4:49:36 PM | message detail
What percentage of the vote are you expecting Gunstar Heroes to get?
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/14/2009 4:50:47 PM | message detail
Considering SMK >> Gunstar and SM/SMK share companies instead of just consoles...Sonic 3 should hardly be hurt in comparison.
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Prototype
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/14/2009 4:55:14 PM | message detail
Gunstar will be lucky to hit 5%
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/14/2009 4:55:26 PM | message detail
No.

We are not. Arguing. Sonic 3/Gunstar Heroes LFF.

Just don't.

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/14/2009 5:00:35 PM | message detail
Sonic 3 is going to overlap way more with the two Nintendo games than with Gunstar Heroes. It's just a niche [insert whatever the hell genre it is] game.
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ZFS | Posted 4/14/2009 5:01:21 PM | message detail
Yo's got the right idea.

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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/14/2009 5:03:28 PM | message detail
Does anyone else think that MMX is back in the game against Sonic 2 after this?

It's hard for me to imagine Sonic 2 doing much better than MM3 is here, and MMX>MM3.

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Masato_Tanaka | Posted 4/14/2009 5:03:40 PM | message detail
Yeah, come on, GH LFFIng anything is just absurd, let alone Sonic.
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/14/2009 5:03:48 PM | message detail
I think WW would've still beat Super Metroid. Pretty confident it's the most popular Metroid, but it's one of those things where the character is a much bigger entity than their games. Samus may be damn strong, and Super Metroid isn't a slouch, but Wind Waker isn't a joke and still held close to Starcraft, and I'd take Starcraft over Super Metroid. I just don't see any Nintendo games outside the Mario, Zelda, and Smash series to be elite.

It'd be hilarious if Mario Kart beat Sonic 3, if only because of that picture. That said, I'm a bit worried about Sonic 3 beating Super Metroid what with Sonic 1 showing it's no slouch and Mario Kart potentially being a bigger LFF leech than Gunstar Whoroes (not to be confused with Gunstar Whoreos!).
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trannyscience | Posted 4/14/2009 5:04:07 PM | message detail
ask that question in six hours.

(not that MMX will be there)
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/14/2009 5:04:43 PM | message detail
Them's fightin' words tranny

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Masato_Tanaka | Posted 4/14/2009 5:05:22 PM | message detail
Does anyone else think that MMX is back in the game against Sonic 2 after this?

It's hard for me to imagine Sonic 2 doing much better than MM3 is here, and MMX>MM3.


Sorry, but I just don't see MMX getting past FF3 or Link's Awakening :/

I mean I wish it would place but I just do not foresee it overcoming a dreaded Zelda/Final Fantasy combination.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/14/2009 5:05:45 PM | message detail
I mean if Sonic loses by like 100 votes, then maybe we can blame GH.

But I don't see it taking more then that.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/14/2009 5:06:03 PM | message detail
FFVI obviously massacres that poll, but I'm not and have never been sold on Link's Awakening.

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