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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 675

ffmasterjose | Posted 4/14/2009 7:58:40 AM | message detail
Here's hoping FF1 and FF4 split pretty bad and that Mario doesn't bend Mega Man over next round.....>_>

grumble grumble

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22/28 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Final Fantasy II (IV) > Mega Man 3 | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
ExquisiteSamurai | Posted 4/14/2009 8:01:46 AM | message detail
aww yeah FFIV, way to trounce the night vote..

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Awaiting Final Fantasy XIII
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/14/2009 8:02:47 AM | message detail
well I guess it is getting 50% lol
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ImplicitContent | Posted 4/14/2009 8:06:06 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/14/2009 8:10:18 AM | message detail

From: ffmasterjose | #301
Here's hoping FF1 and FF4 split pretty bad and that Mario doesn't bend Mega Man over next round.....>_>

grumble grumble


Looking pretty unlikely at this point. I almost feel silly for bringing stats into this, but if we set FF1 = FF2, then that puts MM3 at around 36% on Mario World before any SFF. We know there's going to be a lot of SFF. Lots and lots.
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Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/14/2009 8:15:26 AM | message detail

From: BesaidGuy | #274
odds Albion shows up sometime tomorrow and tries his hardest not to mention FFIV and his atrocious predictions

50%


Hey, I can admit I was wrong.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/14/2009 8:21:10 AM | message detail
By the way is there anyone else here who still feels Mario Kart can do something? Come on guys, I can't be the only one ha cha cha!
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
ImplicitContent | Posted 4/14/2009 8:22:28 AM | message detail
I have Sonic > SMK, wish I had Sonic > SM

but I will take all credit should the former happen.

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all hail ec your lord and savior
MnMZero | Posted 4/14/2009 8:23:22 AM | message detail
Sorry Yo. I tried to initiate a revolution. And I failed. Paul Revere has fallen off of that horse. :-/
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Proud Supporter of Zero
MnMZero | Posted 4/14/2009 8:25:42 AM | message detail
I actually have SM > Sonic 3. Some of the weaknesses of filling out your bracket in 10 mins! SM vs. Sonic 3 is already hard enough without SMK. I really doubt right now that SM can beat Sonic 3 with SMK in there. Hell, SMK might beat SM outright.
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Proud Supporter of Zero
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/14/2009 8:27:18 AM | message detail
This feels like 2006 all over again (ha cha cha), but I still have hope!
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Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/14/2009 8:29:58 AM | message detail
I wouldn't take Super Mario Kart over Super Metroid. As big of a series it is, Super Metroid is a heavy Metroid favorite.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: FFIV > MM3 - Points: 20/28 Vote: MM3
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/14/2009 8:31:46 AM | message detail
But Nintendo fans do easily jump ship if a bigger nintendo franchise is in play though, aka mario.
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http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/378/86b7a0dada9b6d09cd92aaaa2fed5c0f425774f6.gif
charmander6000 | Posted 4/14/2009 8:32:40 AM | message detail
Except this is Mario Kart
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFII (IV) > MM3 Points: 20/28
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/14/2009 8:34:18 AM | message detail
Mario Kart is still popular though. Not sure if its popular enough to hurt Metroid alot but it might.
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ImplicitContent | Posted 4/14/2009 8:35:19 AM | message detail
straight up I would think SMK is undoubtedly the weakest. The only form of reasoning I can come up with as to why I took Sonic 3 > SMK is that SMK/SM should share a pretty heavy overlap thanks to Nintendo/console split (obviously Sonic isn't very far removed and still affected), and then SM/Sonic overlap just for being similar game types and we've already seen Sonic/Nintendo have no problem overlapping. Which means SM has "double" SFF going on when the either only have to deal with one substantive type of overlap.

Not terrific reasoning by any means, but my best guess as to what I was thinking when filling out my bracket.

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all hail ec your lord and savior
The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/14/2009 8:37:34 AM | message detail
I just went with my kneejerk reaction of SM > Sonic 3 though I did consider Mario Kart.

Looking back though, Metroid itself really hasn't had any impressive contest showings so >_>

I wouldn't be too surprised to see it in 3rd.
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/14/2009 8:40:17 AM | message detail
I suppose since we've never seen Super Metroid outside of Phantasy Star..

Though I'd have a hard time taking Super Mario Kart over Metroid Prime. Let alone Super Metroid.

I think it'll just be a close bout between Sonic and Metroid, personally.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: FFIV > MM3 - Points: 20/28 Vote: MM3
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/14/2009 8:41:20 AM | message detail
After seeing Sonic dominate the other day though, its hard to consider Sonic 3 not advancing though
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Lopen | Posted 4/14/2009 8:45:36 AM | message detail
Sonic 3 should be the weakest Sonic entry in the bracket though if sales and past poll performances mean anything. Plus I'd take Super Metroid over Street Fighter pretty easily with no Zelda around to step on it. Super Metroid should have it.

And dammit GO MEGA MAN GO COME ON ASV
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So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.
MnMZero | Posted 4/14/2009 8:47:43 AM | message detail
Metroid is just so... weird in poll settings. It can't decide whether it wants to be a top-tier series on this site or a mid-tier Nintendo series. Just looking at past polls, a game like Metroid: Zero Mission destroys all other Nintendo entities in its poll (including Pokemon FR:LG and wins GBA game of the year), but then the Metroid series struggles with Pokemon the series, but still had the backing to completely destroy Kirby. Plus there are numerous times where Metroid just completely folds. Metroid fans seem fickle on when they want to support the series.

Metroid Prime 2 did destroy Paper Mario 2 in its GotY poll, so that may be the best sign we have on how the most popular Metroid game will fair against one of the lesser games from a mid-tier "Mario" series.
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Proud Supporter of Zero
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/14/2009 8:49:03 AM | message detail
Sonic's 55% on SFII sets it a smidgen below Mario RPG (assuming you feel 2004 stats are still worth anything). I have little trouble seeing Super Metroid exceed such a percentage, and I think even Mario Kart should beat SFII (although 55% is a stretch there). For me, that match was all about trying to estimate how fully integrated Sonic has become with Nintendo, and I opted to go with uhhh about 100%.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Mac Arrowny | Posted 4/14/2009 8:49:06 AM | message detail
SM > SMK, baby. Sonic 3's goin' down.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/14/2009 8:51:20 AM | message detail
If FF1 and FF4 are already close, what proof is there of who wins the split? All we have are a bunch of multi-FF polls where both games perform like crap.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/14/2009 8:53:51 AM | message detail
If FF1 and FF4 are already close, what proof is there of who wins the split? All we have are a bunch of multi-FF polls where both games perform like crap.

Ulti, I'm not sure why you keep harking on this. I think most reasonable people here have already said FF1 has a shot in Round 2.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/14/2009 8:54:46 AM | message detail
Not much. There's the poll with 6 options where IV technically gets over 60% on 1. And there's the fact that IV is actually a fairly good game. >_>

But ONLY TIME WILL WELL
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/14/2009 8:55:10 AM | message detail
OR TELL

WHICHEVER
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/14/2009 8:56:17 AM | message detail
Personally, I'd be scared if FF gets sprites and IV is stuck with Amano again, though I doubt the format for the round (whatever it is) will allow that.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Mac Arrowny | Posted 4/14/2009 8:57:44 AM | message detail
The proof is that people like FFIV more than FFI. Common sense is all.
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White_Turtle | Posted 4/14/2009 9:02:02 AM | message detail
ImplicitContent
Posted 4/14/2009 11:06:06 AM
message detail lol @ Albion, BT and Ulti last night. The trio of trolls falling flat on their face.


Huh?

The only things this year that would make me "fall flat on my face" are if Galaxy miraculously beats Brawl, or if MGS murders FFT.
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/14/2009 9:03:00 AM | message detail
Good thing both of those are going to happen, eh?

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Tohoya | Posted 4/14/2009 9:04:20 AM | message detail
I find it hard to believe that anyone thinks FF1's power is anything but franchise leaching. I think the logic is.. maybe the 4 in the number makes it harder to get franchise voters rather than just being listed as "Final Fantasy" and as a result, FF1 is stronger due to more franchise vote power?

Something like that. Other FFs seem to evoke specific memories, while FF1, especially if it gets the iconic sprites, evokes the entire series for a lot of people. I'm still banking on the fanbase breaking for FF1 hard, but I also think FF1 would be stronger both directly and indirectly than something like FF12, or about half the series for that matter.
White_Turtle | Posted 4/14/2009 9:04:53 AM | message detail
Reading through this topic just now was hilarious. Everybody and their mother is trashing FFIV and it still goes and gets 50%. Question: How exactly is FFIV being accused of getting franchise votes while FF1 avoids this? That makes no sense. Since when did FF1 become a beacon of power? I see no indications that would lead me to believe that FFIV wouldn't have done the same things in FF1's place.

Hey, I said FF1 is the king of franchise votes and I've said since day 1 that FF4 would win there. And I wasn't trashing FF4 at all. 50% is higher than I put it and now I'm starting to think it will be getting out of this division barring a really nasty, Riku/Roxas situation.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/14/2009 9:09:53 AM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | Posted: 4/14/2009 11:53:51 AM | #325
If FF1 and FF4 are already close, what proof is there of who wins the split? All we have are a bunch of multi-FF polls where both games perform like crap.

Ulti, I'm not sure why you keep harking on this. I think most reasonable people here have already said FF1 has a shot in Round 2.


Because calling me a troll for debating something is stupid.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/14/2009 9:10:17 AM | message detail
I honestly don't think Sonic 3 is too far away from Sonic 1. Couldn't it just as easily be stronger than it too since it at least has Knuckles?
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: FFIV > MM3 - Points: 20/28 Vote: MM3
RPGuy96 | Posted 4/14/2009 9:10:30 AM | message detail
After today, I'd consider FF > FFIV, but that rests on a couple of assumptions I'm quite ready to admit are probably bad and I'd happily be wrong. Quick explanation:

Ignoring the low order games (probably a bad assumption), here's how three matches related to these guys shook out so far:
MM3 gets 40.4% on FFIV (currently)
FF1 gets 44.5% on SMW
Pac-Man gets 43.9% on MM2

If FF1 = FFIV, then MM3 gets 36% on SMW. Remember Sonic 2's 25% on SMW? Yeah, there was SFF there, but you're not going to convince me it was enough to put Sonic 2 comfortably over MM3 if that first sentence is true, and I think most people would take Sonic 2 > MM3 at this point.

Further, if MM2 = MM3, then Pac-Man gets 31.6% on SMW. That's what it got on Metroid 1. Whether there is SFF between Metroid and Pac-Man is left as an exercise for the reader, but my inclination is that SMW would do significantly better before any SFF.

The way these percentages get lower is if 1) FF > FFIV, or, in the latter case, if 2) MM3 > MM2. It could also be a case of 3) ignoring the low order games is a bad idea, or 4) lol 2004 stats. Most likely some combination of all of these. Pick your favourite.
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Tohoya | Posted 4/14/2009 9:14:21 AM | message detail
The answer is that round 1 MM2 results were invalid due to pic factor.
HaRRicH | Posted 4/14/2009 9:14:50 AM | message detail
Metroid Prime 2 did destroy Paper Mario 2 in its GotY poll, so that may be the best sign we have on how the most popular Metroid game will fair against one of the lesser games from a mid-tier "Mario" series.

Forget that, MP crushed SMS bad enough to lose to Animal Crossing.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1128
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1087

Granted, it doesn't look like SMS should beat Animal Crossing by a whole lot...

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1025 *

...but that's still a game closer to SM's strength beating a legitimate Mario game instead of a spin-off. We've also seen SM > MP >> SMK on the Top 100 List (#24 > #29 >> #61, respectively). LFF may be an issue against Sonic 3, but SM will beat SMK...probably soundly.

(*also interesting: FFX beating GTA3 despite KH)
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
ImplicitContent | Posted 4/14/2009 9:14:58 AM | message detail
I called you a troll because you were posting something akin to "XFD anyone who thinks FF4 can hang with FF1 after this performance." And because you've been acting like that the entire contest.

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all hail ec your lord and savior
White_Turtle | Posted 4/14/2009 9:16:40 AM | message detail
I would make the argument that Mega Man 2 underperformed due to the picture, since it doesn't seem right that MM3 is stronger than 2. That helps make things look a bit more kosher. We'll see next round for sure (though Tetris being there won't be doing Pac any favours).
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/14/2009 9:17:25 AM | message detail
so much hostility
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/14/2009 9:19:56 AM | message detail
FFX beating GTA3 despite KH

I bet that was a year KH was weak.

As far as RPGuy's analysis goes, I think FF/FFIV are really, really close.. MM3 getting 36% on SMW isn't that bad, though. We've seen Sonic 1 get 55% on Street Fighter II, so Sonic would have probably broken 40% on Mario World without SFF.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: FFIV > MM3 - Points: 20/28 Vote: MM3
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/14/2009 9:22:28 AM | message detail
I think we can all agree that MM2 was hurt by the pic by now though.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/14/2009 9:29:10 AM | message detail

From: ImplicitContent | Posted: 4/14/2009 12:14:58 PM | #339
I called you a troll because you were posting something akin to "XFD anyone who thinks FF4 can hang with FF1 after this performance." And because you've been acting like that the entire contest.


I've acted like that for ONE day, shut up =/

And with MM2 > Tetris people, but come on, there's exceptions to everything.
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/14/2009 9:29:19 AM | message detail
Considering it's hard to say exactly where OT, SI, FF2/4, and Crystalis are since they're new while Tetris, Pac-Man, and RCR were behind anomalies in 2004, I don't know how fair it is to jump to that conclusion yet about MM's pics. Probably, but MM2/3 are new too, so I'm gonna wait.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/14/2009 9:31:26 AM | message detail
Good lord, we're hilariously behind yesterday's votals.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/14/2009 9:32:34 AM | message detail
And while I am sorry for being an ass at times, I think anyone would get a little stir crazy and depressed if they were stuck inside doing nothing for a couple months.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Devil May Cry
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/14/2009 9:34:48 AM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #346
Good lord, we're hilariously behind yesterday's votals.


no battletoads
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/14/2009 9:40:47 AM | message detail
Yup we're heading for 112k.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFII (IV) > MM3 Points: 20/28
Starman0 | Posted 4/14/2009 9:44:31 AM | message detail
I have a really bad feeling about tomorrow.

I think my perfect bracket might be out the window. I chose SM>SMK, but for some reason Sonic 3 just feels like it might really contend with SMK. What do you guys think?
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