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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 675

redrocket | Posted 4/13/2009 10:33:44 PM | message detail
gotta love FF night vote + mega man going down the whole match.

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From his looks Magus is Macho Man Randy Savage as an anime zombie. The black wind howls, and one of you will snap into a Slim Jim ooh yeeeah! -sonicblastpunch
WarThaHedgehog | Posted 4/13/2009 10:34:12 PM | message detail
I'm liking this beastly FFIV early night vote though! And we might have another game weaker than Tecmo!
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/13/2009 10:35:24 PM | message detail
man these early divisions are so full of fodder. Can't wait till we get to the more recent divisions.
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ZFS | Posted 4/13/2009 10:35:31 PM | message detail
Honestly, SMW SFFing MM3 doesn't require any previous character matches to back it up. You have two Nintendo platformers, one significantly stronger than the other -- how is this not a situation where SFF would happen? Mega Man isn't that independent -- his old school fanbase isn't any less Nintendo than Mario World. They're both pulling from the same fans. And we know that FF1 and FFIV are already much stronger than MM3, which means that even a worst case scenario of an even split, they'll probably both still be able to get by MM3 even if SMW doesn't totally destroy it. But I wouldn't count on an even split happening -- the fanbase will favor one of the two there, more than likely FFIV by a good bit.

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creativename | Posted 4/13/2009 10:36:07 PM | message detail
Some people are saying "Mega Man is going to flop but Sonic won't cause he's different" and then on the other hand you have people saying "Sonic rolled over and died against SMW so Mega Man will too just because they're both platformers.

SFF in generational games brackets is very extreme among older games.

Sonic games > Mega Man games.

Sonic 2 died against SMW. Sonic was a *Genesis* game.

MM3 was on the *NES*.

Mega Man will die worse.
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Save_Us.RAT
BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
WarThaHedgehog | Posted 4/13/2009 10:36:43 PM | message detail
If the recent divisions are any closer to each other than the 128 division was in 2k4, we might not see many games break 30% later on!
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WarThaHedgehog | Posted 4/13/2009 10:39:41 PM | message detail
....if Crystalis keeps this up, it might end up lower than Prince of Persia.
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Lopen | Posted 4/13/2009 10:40:06 PM | message detail
Ehhh. All speculation that I think you're all entirely too confident on.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2799

I'll just leave you with that, since Sonic is supposed to be the stronger series and all that, maybe that's something to think about as it relates to Mario and SFF.
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So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.
creativename | Posted 4/13/2009 10:40:37 PM | message detail
Most 1st place games will break 30% I would think. But of course the matches won't have these preposterous generational-SFF beatdowns (and also many of these older games are just flat-out weak without SFF to begin with).

Probably won't see too many 40% showings though.
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Save_Us.RAT
BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
WarThaHedgehog | Posted 4/13/2009 10:40:39 PM | message detail
I'm liking that 43-18 split!
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/13/2009 10:40:49 PM | message detail
Oh, I think Crystalis will easily go below Pop during the Europe hours. Its another Oregon Trail/Tecmo type of game.. it never got a release of ANY kind in Europe.
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redrocket | Posted 4/13/2009 10:41:31 PM | message detail
A poll that shows Mario doubling Mega Man is supposed to support your cause?

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From his looks Magus is Macho Man Randy Savage as an anime zombie. The black wind howls, and one of you will snap into a Slim Jim ooh yeeeah! -sonicblastpunch
creativename | Posted 4/13/2009 10:41:34 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2799

This...this supports your logic?
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Save_Us.RAT
BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
Lopen | Posted 4/13/2009 10:42:24 PM | message detail
Sonic is presumed to be stronger than Mega Man as a series.
Mega Man is doing 3% better in spite of that.

Hence less SFF.
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So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.
WarThaHedgehog | Posted 4/13/2009 10:43:03 PM | message detail
I'm really liking Mega Man being not much stronger than Castlevania!
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/13/2009 10:43:19 PM | message detail
Its not really helping our case though Lopen. All it shows is Mega Man still gets SFF'd majorly, just not as much as Sonic.
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Lopen | Posted 4/13/2009 10:44:18 PM | message detail
And Sonic looks worse still. ... don't half of you support Sonic over SF2 next round? The double standard between Sonic and Mega Man in this topic is astounding.
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So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.
ZFS | Posted 4/13/2009 10:44:41 PM | message detail
Yeah, I don't know that getting SFFed 3% less matters too much when we're talking about Mega Man being thrown under 20%, and not too far ahead of Castlevania.

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WarThaHedgehog | Posted 4/13/2009 10:44:49 PM | message detail
Pfft, I don't have faith in a single Sonic game getting past round 2!
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/13/2009 10:45:48 PM | message detail
I doubt Mega Man goes down the whole match. He should win the day vote by virtue of having the only picture a large percentage of younger voters will recognize.

From: Lopen | #208
Ehhh. All speculation that I think you're all entirely too confident on.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2799

I'll just leave you with that, since Sonic is supposed to be the stronger series and all that, maybe that's something to think about as it relates to Mario and SFF.


But as we've seen before, voters are almost certainly taking Mega Man X into consideration there. Sonic has, what, 1/4 the number of 2D platformers that MM has? Of course the series will look better when it's sending so much sheer bulk out there. Look at how well Castlevania did, and it was just proven that any 2D Sonic obliterates any Castlevania without "SotN" in the title. Sheer volume had a lot to do with that poll. Plus Mega Man 2 bombed. Plus FF put up 45% on Mario World. Everything just spells bad signs for Mega Man here.
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Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/8zkzm1.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
ZFS | Posted 4/13/2009 10:46:03 PM | message detail
Not me. I think SFII's more likely to advance there, thanks to Mario game being thrown into the mix.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/13/2009 10:46:36 PM | message detail
I doubt Mega Man goes down the whole match. He should win the day vote by virtue of having the only picture a large percentage of younger voters will recognize.

Younger voters might vote for "BARF" in droves, though.
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http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/378/86b7a0dada9b6d09cd92aaaa2fed5c0f425774f6.gif
Lopen | Posted 4/13/2009 10:46:39 PM | message detail
If you assume that Sonic > Mega Man by a significant margin, it looks a lot better for Mega Man, though, that's all I'm saying. It's not just 3%, it's 3% after the initial deficit Mega Man was playing from.
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So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 4/13/2009 10:50:40 PM | message detail
And Sonic looks worse still. ... don't half of you support Sonic over SF2 next round? The double standard between Sonic and Mega Man in this topic is astounding.

Sonic beat SF2 pretty badly. The fact that half support SF2 over Sonic next round shows how badly people expected SMB3 to kill Sonic. Also are we really at half in support of Sonic? Guru had 25% support for Sonic but imagine it's gone up since then.
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Shall I take you with me? To the place in this town where wishes come true...
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/13/2009 10:51:47 PM | message detail

From: ZFS | #221
Not me. I think SFII's more likely to advance there, thanks to Mario game being thrown into the mix.


Same here. Sonic is in for a world of hurt. I mean, look at that poll Lopen just posted; Mario is nearly tripling Sonic in a poll that, if anything, should be beneficial for the hedgehog. IMO, Sonic will be lucky to merely get tripled in that match. It could get even uglier.
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Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/8zkzm1.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
WarThaHedgehog | Posted 4/13/2009 10:52:53 PM | message detail
Oh god.

Mario 3 will be SFFing Sonic while Sonic is SFFing Monkey Island.

Poor Monkey Island.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/13/2009 10:53:33 PM | message detail
Monkey Island might be putting up Crystalis type numbers.
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Lopen | Posted 4/13/2009 10:54:19 PM | message detail
Well I'm with you on Sonic having no chance against SF2 next round... and I think Mega Man's going to get hit too. But I do think Sonic's going to fold a lot worse than Mega Man, and I swear a lot of people in this topic have confidence in Sonic games doing things even with tough Nintendo games around despite all indication that Sonic should fold worse than Mega Man in their presence.

Or maybe Ulti's just really loud.
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So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/13/2009 10:56:22 PM | message detail
I think Sonic 1 and MM3 are both in for rough times. The Final Fantasy games have to be absolutely, positively, dreadfully pathetic for Mega Man to have a shot, and neither of them have shown hints of such weakness yet.
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Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/8zkzm1.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Lopen | Posted 4/13/2009 10:59:33 PM | message detail
What percentage of the poll do you think the FF games get next round? 40? 50? 60?
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So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.
ZFS | Posted 4/13/2009 11:01:46 PM | message detail
50% not a bad place to start.

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Team Rocket Elite | Posted 4/13/2009 11:03:31 PM | message detail
50% sounds about right.
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Shall I take you with me? To the place in this town where wishes come true...
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/13/2009 11:05:28 PM | message detail

From: Lopen | #230
What percentage of the poll do you think the FF games get next round? 40? 50? 60?


I'd say 40 is fair, although they could do a few percent higher. The original alone just put up 44.5% against Mario World, and really, the SFF between two Final Fantasies is not going to be that much more significant than the SFF between two Nintendo platformers released seven months apart.

Using your example, if Mario + MM = 60% and Mario goes 70/30, that leaves MM with 18%. Even if the Final Fantasies split right down the middle, they're both safe. If they don't, one has an easy win. However, I think Mario can easily put up a tripling (or worse) in that situation. He hit 70% on Mega Man's series, and that's despite MM sending his entire massive arsenal of games into the poll (it's gotta be like 16 2D platformers). You split them up into individual games, and I wager Mario makes it uglier than 70/30.
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Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/8zkzm1.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Lopen | Posted 4/13/2009 11:06:01 PM | message detail
Well, if they manage 50% I will admit Mega Man 3 has no chance. I'm thinkin in the case of 40%, though, Mega Man 3's chances are decent. How unlikely that is is up to interpretation.
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So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.
WarThaHedgehog | Posted 4/13/2009 11:06:22 PM | message detail
I'm thinking 43-45%, depending on how Mega Man 2 looks in its second round match.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/13/2009 11:07:26 PM | message detail
Eh, I think 50 is pushing it. I also think 40 is being a bit too generous to Lopen's argument, but anything above 42 or so makes Mega Man look impossibly hopeless.
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Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/8zkzm1.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
HaRRicH | Posted 4/13/2009 11:09:04 PM | message detail
Hey, talking about Wily Wars and how any Castlevania game not called C:SotN is weak here:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3198

Mega Man is really Nintendo.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
ZFS | Posted 4/13/2009 11:09:43 PM | message detail
I figure SMW's good for 35 - 40% there, probably closer to 35%. I'd expect MM3 to be down close to 10 - 15%, and then the two FF's either at 25/25 or 30/20. Maybe not exact, and it could be under 50% by a bit, but I don't think SMW is gonna kill the poll.

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edwardsdv | Posted 4/13/2009 11:09:55 PM | message detail
Why wouldn't the Final fantasies get 50% + of the votes?

Mario vs. Final Fantasy seems to evenly split Gamefaqs. Action/platforming vs. RPGs.

Seems to be a pretty obvious conclusion to me. SMW wouldh ave to have fans that would normally vote Final Fantasy that decided not to because they liked that particular game , and do it in significant numbers, to get a 60/40 split.

I don't like those odds, especially with the relatively recent FF4 remake lending credence to the possibility of it manhandling FFI.
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http://www.thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=212
Lopen | Posted 4/13/2009 11:10:37 PM | message detail
Shaq Fu got 17% in that poll, awesome.

Would anyone take Shaq Fu to win the contest if it got in?
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So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/13/2009 11:12:42 PM | message detail
I could see Shaq Fu advancing in a match.
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edwardsdv | Posted 4/13/2009 11:13:25 PM | message detail
I'd take shaq fu if only to say I took shaq fu. tbqh.
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http://www.thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=212
WarThaHedgehog | Posted 4/13/2009 11:13:56 PM | message detail
Replace Mortal Kombat II with Shaq-Fu, and I'd take it to advance.
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/13/2009 11:15:21 PM | message detail
...we just saw Castlevania 3 lose to Civ. You really want to put stock in a notoriously-bad game that got 60-40'd by Castlevania: Bloodlines to advance in a match?
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/13/2009 11:15:35 PM | message detail
Shaq-Fu was made in 1994, right? Switch it with either Doom or MKII; those are its best shots.

SHAQ-****ING-FU SON
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Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/8zkzm1.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
ZFS | Posted 4/13/2009 11:15:38 PM | message detail
Haha. Shaq Fu'd

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/13/2009 11:16:15 PM | message detail

From: HaRRicH | #244
...we just saw Castlevania 3 lose to Civ. You really want to put stock in a notoriously-bad game that got 60-40'd by Castlevania: Bloodlines to advance in a match?


Imagine the rallying and joke votes it would get though

That kinda stuff would be a non factor in a random poll like that
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/13/2009 11:18:45 PM | message detail
Speaking of which, what do you guys think will be Bacon's annual post-contest joke poll this time around?

E.T. vs. Shaq-Fu vs. Superman 64 vs. Big Rigs

Do it, Bacon. Salvage this contest!
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Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/8zkzm1.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
WarThaHedgehog | Posted 4/13/2009 11:19:24 PM | message detail
Shaq-Fu would murder that poll. Replace it with Operation Shadow in honor of poll -1.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/13/2009 11:19:43 PM | message detail
I think the poll will be "Is World of Warcraft really the best game of all time?"
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