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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 675

Janus5000 | Posted 4/13/2009 9:58:17 PM | message detail
Well this MM3 gaining nonsense has to stop first... but it's not quite worrisome.

...Okay, so it is a little. Still, I'd expect SMW to hurt MM3 a lot.
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Stay a while and breathe me in.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/13/2009 9:59:01 PM | message detail
My odds say MM3 = FF1 > FF4 for odds of advancement next round. Oh yes.

That seems really, really unlikely after the last 24 hours. With how badly Mario World is going to crush MM3, you'd have to be banking on those games to score well over a combined 60% of the vote for MM3 to have a shot. Hell, even if they do hit 60% and Mario puts a 75/25 beatdown on old blue, that still leaves MM3 with only 15%. His chances seem razor thin even if the Final Fantasies split right down the middle.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/13/2009 9:59:54 PM | message detail
They were so mean to me when all I said was that I didn't think it would hit 50! they called me names and did bad stuff to me -cry-
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http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png
http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/378/86b7a0dada9b6d09cd92aaaa2fed5c0f425774f6.gif
Janus5000 | Posted 4/13/2009 10:02:13 PM | message detail
That seems really, really unlikely after the last 24 hours. With how badly Mario World is going to crush MM3, you'd have to be banking on those games to score well over a combined 60% of the vote for MM3 to have a shot. Hell, even if they do hit 60% and Mario puts a 75/25 beatdown on old blue, that still leaves MM3 with only 15%. His chances seem razor thin even if the Final Fantasies split right down the middle.

SMW only got 45% this round. Are you suggesting it'll break 40% next round too?
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Stay a while and breathe me in.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/13/2009 10:02:59 PM | message detail
I think Mario/Mega Man will be getting at least 70% of the total vote.

Remember, most of the Final Fantasy votes are franchise votes, what happens when you split the franchise? Tomorrow will be one of the most crippling SFF situation in 4-ways since the Ryu/Bowser/Mewtwo/Toad match.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/13/2009 10:03:41 PM | message detail
SMW only got 45% this round. Are you suggesting it'll break 40% next round too?

I can't see why not.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
ZFS | Posted 4/13/2009 10:03:41 PM | message detail
I think Mario/Mega Man will be getting at least 70% of the total vote.

What.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/13/2009 10:04:19 PM | message detail
why are we expecting mega man to be totally sff'd by mario again
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http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png
http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/378/86b7a0dada9b6d09cd92aaaa2fed5c0f425774f6.gif
Lopen | Posted 4/13/2009 10:05:38 PM | message detail
I'm not sure how you could call this performance better than FF1's, though. FF1 did damn well yesterday. Now, if you think "logically" FF4 is going to cause an uneven split, then more power to ya. Personally I think FF1 looking so good yesterday means that FF4 is going to have more than it can handle. Now... MM3 might be SFFed by SMW, but I'm not sure that's going to be the case. I think the odds of MM3 escaping brutal SFF are higher than FF4 winning the split (I think it's going to lose) between it and FF1 decisively enough to advance.

We'll see how well MM2 holds up next round I guess.
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So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.
KingBartz | Posted 4/13/2009 10:05:58 PM | message detail
hmmm losing %'s but simply stalling on the votes.
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Check out my Guru bracket: http://www.thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=60
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/13/2009 10:05:58 PM | message detail
final fantasy power hour over
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http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png
http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/378/86b7a0dada9b6d09cd92aaaa2fed5c0f425774f6.gif
Lopen | Posted 4/13/2009 10:06:57 PM | message detail
Signal the MM3 comeback alarm.

Phoenix Wright style performance for FF4 I think so
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So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.
ZFS | Posted 4/13/2009 10:07:45 PM | message detail
There's not much reason to expect Mega Man not to be hurt bad by Mario World being there. It's certainly not going to get by without any SFF between the two -- Mario and Mega Man aren't these wildly different fanbases, they're both 2D platformers on Nintendo systems. Whatever happens between FF1 and FFIV, MM3's gonna be lucky not to come in last in that match, and that's if one of the two FF's SFF the other heavily.

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/13/2009 10:08:37 PM | message detail
I'm not sure how you could call this performance better than FF1's, though

It ain't. I now think either FF game can make it (I always thought this, but I'm less confident in IV now). I think either one has a far, far more likely shot at advancing than Mega Man, though. Mario is going to ugly him up.
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Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/8zkzm1.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/13/2009 10:09:17 PM | message detail
Oh theres gonna be SFF, I just don't think its going to be crippling sff
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http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png
http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/378/86b7a0dada9b6d09cd92aaaa2fed5c0f425774f6.gif
Janus5000 | Posted 4/13/2009 10:10:01 PM | message detail
I guess I could see the split favoring FFI, but that just seems weird.

In any case seriously what the hell are you doing stop letting Mega Man use top spin on you jump Kain jump
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http://i59.photobucket.com/albums/g320/HowDisturbing/stayawhile.jpg
Stay a while and breathe me in.
creativename | Posted 4/13/2009 10:10:33 PM | message detail
From the graph, it looks like after the 4chan vote wore off Battletoads actually lost an update to Prince of Persia! Wow.

Also PoP got 7.33% against SMW. Assuming SMW at 35% on the winner that's a value of about 5.1%, so Tanner can no longer scoff at PoP. You go Prince of Persia.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/13/2009 10:11:29 PM | message detail
Europe voted 7% for PoP :(
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http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png
http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/378/86b7a0dada9b6d09cd92aaaa2fed5c0f425774f6.gif
Janus5000 | Posted 4/13/2009 10:11:52 PM | message detail
50% update for FFIV let's go night vote

(at least before the dead zone does lord knows what)
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http://i59.photobucket.com/albums/g320/HowDisturbing/stayawhile.jpg
Stay a while and breathe me in.
Lopen | Posted 4/13/2009 10:12:27 PM | message detail
We've never really seen Mega Man humiliated by Mario before. I'm not sure why the expectation is that he'll just fold like nothing else. All things in past contests have pointed to him being more independent from Mario stuff than anything else.
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So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 4/13/2009 10:18:03 PM | message detail
why are we expecting mega man to be totally sff'd by mario again

Sonic 2 got killed by Super Mario World back in 2004.
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Shall I take you with me? To the place in this town where wishes come true...
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/13/2009 10:18:39 PM | message detail

From: Team Rocket Elite | #171
why are we expecting mega man to be totally sff'd by mario again

Sonic 2 got killed by Super Mario World back in 2004.


And that means what exactly?
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http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/378/86b7a0dada9b6d09cd92aaaa2fed5c0f425774f6.gif
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/13/2009 10:19:34 PM | message detail
We've never really seen Mega Man humiliated by Mario before. I'm not sure why the expectation is that he'll just fold like nothing else. All things in past contests have pointed to him being more independent from Mario stuff than anything else.

Not trying to sound confrontational, but what is there to suggest that MM3 will avoid the 70/30 beating Mario put on Sonic? If anything, most people here will argue that those older Sonic games are stronger and more independent. If Mega Man gets 70/30'D, he's completely done unless the Final Fantasy titles split evenly AND stink up the joint in terms of combined percentages.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
edwardsdv | Posted 4/13/2009 10:19:34 PM | message detail
*shrugs*

My intuition remains the same. FFIV has recognizability, a good bit of independent renown, not based on 8-bit theatre. It has legs. It has Rydia. Rydia might have a chest next round. And Cecil, Kain, and Rydia at least all made the character contest and while they didn't do great ,they did decently. FFI has nothing else gong for it

Final Fantasy I only has 8-bit-theatre and purely franchise voters who dont choose FFIV. Expect pic factor to play majorly in this case.

Still unsure why FFIV was straddled with a pic in FFVI artstyle.


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Team Rocket Elite | Posted 4/13/2009 10:19:39 PM | message detail
That things don't look good for the platformer that was actually on a Nintendo console.
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Shall I take you with me? To the place in this town where wishes come true...
Janus5000 | Posted 4/13/2009 10:19:43 PM | message detail
The characters don't seem as joined as I would like, but something tells me if SMW can kill Sonic 2 it should kill MM3. It's a generation jump instead of a developer jump, but I feel like if anything that would make it more susceptible.
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Stay a while and breathe me in.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/13/2009 10:22:01 PM | message detail
Sonic is essentially Nintendo now though. Mega Man isn't connected as tightly to Nintendo.
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http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/378/86b7a0dada9b6d09cd92aaaa2fed5c0f425774f6.gif
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/13/2009 10:23:07 PM | message detail
Mega Man's old games are Nintendo.
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Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/8zkzm1.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
WarThaHedgehog | Posted 4/13/2009 10:23:15 PM | message detail
uhhh....what's the last popular Mega Man game (non-remake/collection) not released on a Nintendo platform? X4? Was X8 even popular? Wily Wars?
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ZFS | Posted 4/13/2009 10:23:19 PM | message detail
Mega Man's not a whole lot different. MM3 is more or less a Nintendo platformer.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/13/2009 10:23:27 PM | message detail
Really? I first played Megaman 2 and 3 on my genesis.
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http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png
http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/378/86b7a0dada9b6d09cd92aaaa2fed5c0f425774f6.gif
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 4/13/2009 10:26:23 PM | message detail
Really? I first played Megaman 2 and 3 on my genesis.

Which system do you think people played Sonic 2 on? >_>
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Shall I take you with me? To the place in this town where wishes come true...
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/13/2009 10:26:53 PM | message detail

From: Team Rocket Elite | #182
Really? I first played Megaman 2 and 3 on my genesis.

Which system do you think people played Sonic 2 on? >_>


Gamecube?
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http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png
http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/378/86b7a0dada9b6d09cd92aaaa2fed5c0f425774f6.gif
redrocket | Posted 4/13/2009 10:27:33 PM | message detail
Oh man you got us. Mega Man is more Sega than Sonic is these days what were we thinking.

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From his looks Magus is Macho Man Randy Savage as an anime zombie. The black wind howls, and one of you will snap into a Slim Jim ooh yeeeah! -sonicblastpunch
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/13/2009 10:28:49 PM | message detail

From: MyWorldIsCrono | #181
Really? I first played Megaman 2 and 3 on my genesis.


What?
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
WarThaHedgehog | Posted 4/13/2009 10:28:49 PM | message detail
Uhh, yeah, if Mega Man's most popular non-Nintendo system game is Wily Wars, he's very Nintendo, and gonna die hard. At least give the poor guy X4.
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Team Rocket Elite | Posted 4/13/2009 10:29:12 PM | message detail
Gamecube?

Did those collections actually sell well? <_<
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Shall I take you with me? To the place in this town where wishes come true...
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/13/2009 10:29:12 PM | message detail
Are people trying to justify Mega Man 2 > Tetris? Come on.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Devil May Cry
WarThaHedgehog | Posted 4/13/2009 10:29:30 PM | message detail
Turtle, Wily Wars was Mega Man 1, 2, and 3, along with WILY TOWER, which was all kinds of fun.
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ZFS | Posted 4/13/2009 10:29:42 PM | message detail
What in the world Albion

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/13/2009 10:30:15 PM | message detail

From: Team Rocket Elite | #187
Gamecube?

Did those collections actually sell well? <_<


The Sonic mega collection sold over 2 million!

What in the world Albion

=P
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http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/378/86b7a0dada9b6d09cd92aaaa2fed5c0f425774f6.gif
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 4/13/2009 10:30:18 PM | message detail
Are people trying to justify Mega Man 2 > Tetris? Come on.

MyWorldIsCrono is the only other person to even mention Tetris.
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Shall I take you with me? To the place in this town where wishes come true...
WarThaHedgehog | Posted 4/13/2009 10:30:53 PM | message detail
Ok, are me and Albion seriously the only ones here who played Wily Wars? That game was all kinds of awesome, and you people need to find it.
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http://img24.imageshack.us/img24/3230/takerface.gif
Lopen | Posted 4/13/2009 10:30:54 PM | message detail
We've never actually seen Sonic go scuffle with Mario stuff either, though. He went up against Luigi but that hardly counts. Some people are saying "Mega Man is going to flop but Sonic won't cause he's different" and then on the other hand you have people saying "Sonic rolled over and died against SMW so Mega Man will too just because they're both platformers." Let me tell you something. I would be very surprised if Mega Man + Mario didn't have over 60% of the vote against weak Final Fantasy titles. A 70-30 only puts Mega Man at 18% of the vote. If FF4 and FF1 split evenly he's right in the running.

You've basically gotta expect lower than 60% for Mario/Mega Man, a very lopsided split for SMW/Mega Man, or a lopsided split for FF4/FF1 to count Mega Man out here. Personally I don't expect any of these and think Mega Man will split about 23-40 with SMW next round leaving the remaining 37% to FF1/FF4 who'll split fairly evenly. Or at least, that's perfectly within the realm of possibility.

Anyway my question here is Mega Man the same as Sonic or is he different than Sonic? This topic needs to make up its mind.
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So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/13/2009 10:31:43 PM | message detail
Wily Wars was my first introduction to Mega Man since I never had an NES. I loved that game, I played it so much.
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http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png
http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/378/86b7a0dada9b6d09cd92aaaa2fed5c0f425774f6.gif
edwardsdv | Posted 4/13/2009 10:32:05 PM | message detail
I am Mr. Paradox on this topic.

I have MM2 > tetris, but also SMW>FFIV.

I even have Zelda1>MM2.

I am an idiot/ totally overestimated MM2.
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WarThaHedgehog | Posted 4/13/2009 10:32:18 PM | message detail
But uhh...yeah, Albion, I hate to say it, but if Wily Wars is Mega Man 3's beacon of hope, it's extremely screwed.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/13/2009 10:32:22 PM | message detail
and lol wow, FF4 might get 50% yet.
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http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png
http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/378/86b7a0dada9b6d09cd92aaaa2fed5c0f425774f6.gif
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/13/2009 10:32:47 PM | message detail

From: WarThaHedgehog | #197
But uhh...yeah, Albion, I hate to say it, but if Wily Wars is Mega Man 3's beacon of hope, it's extremely screwed.


I was just being sarcastic >_>
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Yesmar | Posted 4/13/2009 10:33:02 PM | message detail
SMW/Sonic 2 SFF had nothing to do with Sonic 2 being "Nintendo" anyway. They were just competing platformers during the same period.
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