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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 674

transience | Posted 4/13/2009 11:36:44 AM | message detail
people overreact to FF1 doing well every time, as if it didn't do this exact same thing in 2004. I don't see how this is all that unexpected.

in 10 hours you're all going to be like "there's no way FF1 wins" because you'll see FF4 do the same thing.
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com//chewing.jpg
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/13/2009 11:42:04 AM | message detail
What tranny said.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/13/2009 11:44:48 AM | message detail
what exactly did FF do impressive in 2004?

It lowballed the oracle against Contra, and killed Pitfall

big whoop. This is way more impressive then anything FF did in 2004
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/13/2009 11:45:37 AM | message detail

From: M_e_g_a_6_4 | #300
Hell, will the pic factor be more important in a match like FF1/FF4, where two games are (probably) close together indirectly and share a very similar fanbase? People may be torn until they see the pic, which helps them influence their decision.

Is this theory bunk, or is there something to this?


Its possible. Seriously if we get Black Mage vs. something obscure like Paladin Cecil, I'd favor FF1.
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transience | Posted 4/13/2009 11:45:55 AM | message detail
uhh
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xyzzy
http://www.mistwalkercorp.com/en/_src/sc569/HNI_0022.jpg
The Mana Sword | Posted 4/13/2009 11:46:39 AM | message detail
IT'S A TRAP
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Kleenex...at work!
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/13/2009 11:48:18 AM | message detail
If anyone responds to those posts I'm giving you a free "Doesn't Know Schmuck Bait When He Sees It" medal.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/13/2009 11:49:49 AM | message detail
We'll have to see where the ASV takes this, but 45% against Mario World is more impressive than 40% against Mario 3 in my opinion. If FFIV is stronger than this, World is dead in two rounds.
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Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/13/2009 11:51:49 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=3452&type=1&seconds=60&max=0

Battletoads has the best graph ever

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
charmander6000 | Posted 4/13/2009 11:54:22 AM | message detail
what exactly did FF do impressive in 2004?

It lowballed the oracle against Contra, and killed Pitfall

big whoop. This is way more impressive then anything FF did in 2004


a) lol Oracle means nothing about performance
b) It got 40% against SMB3
c) FF is expected to get 47% against SMW
d) FF is getting 45% against SMW
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMW > FF Points: 16/24
The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/13/2009 11:57:44 AM | message detail
Well, by the end of the day it'll be more like 40.50% against Mario 3 Vs. 44.00% against Mario World(if not lower than 44%)

Hard to call the latter more impressive...
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
ImplicitContent | Posted 4/13/2009 11:59:13 AM | message detail
in 10 hours you're all going to be like "there's no way FF1 wins" because you'll see FF4 do the same thing.

Pretty much how I'm feeling. Everyone's reason for why FF is going to win now is because "I can't see FF4 doing this" well guess what... you didn't see FF doing this, so that's really not strange.

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all hail ec your lord and savior
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/13/2009 12:00:01 PM | message detail
If FF4 gets 50% tonight, I'll call it in FF4s favor.

Thought I seriously doubt it does that well.
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/13/2009 12:03:12 PM | message detail
What's stopping FFIV from breaking 50%? River City Ransom and Crystalis will fail to break 10% and MM3 is nothing special.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMW > FF Points: 16/24
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/13/2009 12:06:26 PM | message detail
Because I don't trust FF4s strength. Nothing has ever shown me it have much strength at all, and I don't see it breaking 50% there on franchise votes alone.
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transience | Posted 4/13/2009 12:07:18 PM | message detail
the only difference between FF1 and FF4 is that one was in 2004.
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ImplicitContent | Posted 4/13/2009 12:07:45 PM | message detail
and that FF1 is weaker

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all hail ec your lord and savior
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/13/2009 12:10:28 PM | message detail
If FF4 gets 50% tomorrow, I'm calling this contest officially over in FF7s favor. There wil be No way OoT is able to beat FF7 in any circumstances, even if its its FF6/FF7/OoT/FFX if a game like FF4 is able to get 50% off solely franchise votes.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/13/2009 12:10:46 PM | message detail

From: MyWorldIsCrono | #315
don't see it breaking 50% there on franchise votes alone.


50% sounds pretty reasonable. River City Ransom was doubled by Pong which was tripled by Tetris.

Crystalis is more or less Dragon Warrior.

Mega Man 2 barely beat Pac-Man which was doubled my Metroid (SFF or not... FFIV > Metroid).

If it doesn't even come close to breaking 50%, I'd be shocked.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: SMW > FF - Points: 16/24 Vote: SMW
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/13/2009 12:12:54 PM | message detail
Plus if MM3 gets an actual recogniziable pic, I see no way it doesn't get 35%.

This is my prediction:

FF4: 43%
MM3: 35%
River City Ransom: 12%
Crystalis: 10%
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/13/2009 12:14:19 PM | message detail
And by recognizable I mean something like this: http://img26.imageshack.us/img26/7526/r1megamaniii.png
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http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png
http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/378/86b7a0dada9b6d09cd92aaaa2fed5c0f425774f6.gif
charmander6000 | Posted 4/13/2009 12:15:36 PM | message detail
You think FFIV would only defeat MM3 55/45? I didn't even think that before MM2 had its match.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMW > FF Points: 16/24
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 4/13/2009 12:16:08 PM | message detail
If FF4 gets 50% tomorrow, I'm calling this contest officially over in FF7s favor. There wil be No way OoT is able to beat FF7 in any circumstances, even if its its FF6/FF7/OoT/FFX if a game like FF4 is able to get 50% off solely franchise votes.

FF2 isn't getting votes solely because it's a FF game. Franchise votes don't mean much when FF7 and OoT are in the poll. As of 2006, Zelda was the stronger franchise, anyways. It's been 3 years, but I don't see that changing by enough to be significant.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/13/2009 12:16:49 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #322
You think FFIV would only defeat MM3 55/45? I didn't even think that before MM2 had its match.


With a recognizable pic? Yeah
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http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png
http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/378/86b7a0dada9b6d09cd92aaaa2fed5c0f425774f6.gif
charmander6000 | Posted 4/13/2009 12:17:01 PM | message detail
If FF4 gets 50% tomorrow, I'm calling this contest officially over in FF7s favor. There wil be No way OoT is able to beat FF7 in any circumstances, even if its its FF6/FF7/OoT/FFX if a game like FF4 is able to get 50% off solely franchise votes.

Replace SMW with MM3 and FF would be getting 50% right now.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMW > FF Points: 16/24
Tohoya | Posted 4/13/2009 12:17:36 PM | message detail
MM2 has to be stronger than indicated! Pic factor! PIC FACTOR!
charmander6000 | Posted 4/13/2009 12:18:52 PM | message detail
If you didn't know Mega Man before the picture you're not going to vote for him anyways.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMW > FF Points: 16/24
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/13/2009 12:19:23 PM | message detail

From: MyWorldIsCrono | #320
FF4: 43%
MM3: 35%
River City Ransom: 12%
Crystalis: 10%


If FFIV can triple both Crystalis and River City Ransom (which I think is reasonable since it's no stronger than Battletoads; not even close since 4chan has an influence and FF1 is almost doing it), it will be around 50% maybe at the lowest give or take.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: SMW > FF - Points: 16/24 Vote: SMW
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/13/2009 12:19:27 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #327
If you didn't know Mega Man before the picture you're not going to vote for him anyways.


MM2s performance nullified this.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 4/13/2009 12:20:47 PM | message detail
Geez, RCR is weak. Duck Hunt would be expected to quintuple it. Wouldn't be too surprised to see it at 5% or 6% tomorrow.
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All the stars in the sky are waiting for you.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/13/2009 12:24:09 PM | message detail

From: MyWorldIsCrono | #329
MM2s performance nullified this.


And what prior MM2 performance with a decent picture are you basing that on?
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/13/2009 12:27:14 PM | message detail
MM2 bombed when it had a pic of a middle aged guy in a white space outfit
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ImplicitContent | Posted 4/13/2009 12:28:16 PM | message detail
Why does anyone even respond to Albion.. I mean seriously. Does he ever bring anything intelligent or worthwhile to the conversation?

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all hail ec your lord and savior
The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/13/2009 12:28:27 PM | message detail
And where's the proof that it wouldn't bomb had it not been a middle-aged guy in a white space outfit?
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
charmander6000 | Posted 4/13/2009 12:28:30 PM | message detail
MM2s performance nullified this.

People overrated MM2 because of Tetris' performance causing MM2 to look terrible.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMW > FF Points: 16/24
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/13/2009 12:30:21 PM | message detail

From: The n00b Avenger | #334
And where's the proof that it wouldn't bomb had it not been a middle-aged guy in a white space outfit?


Common sense. We've had quite a few matches where a pic of a completley unrecognizable version of a character hurt big time... Solid ****, Zero Suit Samus

Why would that pic not effect its strength if those pics did?
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/13/2009 12:34:50 PM | message detail
Though if MM3 gets another pic of a middle aged dude, I'd think it would get mid 20s% with FF4 just barely hitting 50%.
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http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/378/86b7a0dada9b6d09cd92aaaa2fed5c0f425774f6.gif
The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/13/2009 12:40:15 PM | message detail
Because those are characters and these are games.
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/13/2009 12:41:22 PM | message detail

From: The n00b Avenger | #338
Because those are characters and these are games.


And? Somehow pics don't make a difference now?
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/13/2009 12:45:11 PM | message detail
And anyone who follows these contest should know that pic factor DOES play a role

http://images3.wikia.nocookie.net/board8/images/b/b2/Spr04b20.jpg

Unless you think RE was really THAT weak for some reason.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/13/2009 12:46:53 PM | message detail
There's not enough data to make the judgment that picture plays a large factor in games contests
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/13/2009 12:47:31 PM | message detail
We'll get that data tomorrow fortunently if MM3 gets a good pic.
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http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/378/86b7a0dada9b6d09cd92aaaa2fed5c0f425774f6.gif
HaRRicH | Posted 4/13/2009 1:34:15 PM | message detail
FF2/4 > Sonic 1, FF-series > Sonic-series, SF2 > MM3, and MM2 > MM3. RCR was 2004's Ultimate Loser and Crystalis lost to Tecmo in a recent poll...remember how Tecmo did yesterday? They should do worse than CV3/Civ, so FF2/4 has a fine chance at 50+% since Sonic 1 got 44.41% in its match two days ago. FF2/4 is the favorite anyway, so...MM3 might stop it with a good picture, but odds are FF2/4 will be at least close to it.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
HaRRicH | Posted 4/13/2009 1:36:06 PM | message detail
Also, there are good cases to be made about under/over-performances in matches due to pictures...but MGS/RE isn't one of them.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
MnMZero | Posted 4/13/2009 2:10:57 PM | message detail
http://images3.wikia.nocookie.net/board8/images/b/b2/Spr04b20.jpg

Are you seriously blaming RE's performance on that pic? It's freakin' box art! It's not like MGS has some type of picture advantage there. It's literally the words Metal Gear Solid on a white background. Neither picture is big enough to make a difference in the first place.
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Proud Supporter of Zero
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/13/2009 2:16:00 PM | message detail
I wonder if a lot of public schools started Spring Break. I know Battletoads has messed us all up, but this still seems like a pretty diluted ASV.
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Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/8zkzm1.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
trannyscience | Posted 4/13/2009 2:16:39 PM | message detail
it makes sense - Mario World's morning vote didn't kick in 'til late.
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xyzzy
http://i42.tinypic.com/2vbwhn4.jpg
ZenOfThunder | Posted 4/13/2009 2:17:53 PM | message detail
I'm on Spring Break, but almost all my friends already had theirs. My school always does things late.
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(|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08)
. /|_|\ http://imgcake.com/img/40/all_eba.jpg
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/13/2009 2:18:26 PM | message detail

From: MnMZero | #345
http://images3.wikia.nocookie.net/board8/images/b/b2/Spr04b20.jpg

Are you seriously blaming RE's performance on that pic? It's freakin' box art! It's not like MGS has some type of picture advantage there. It's literally the words Metal Gear Solid on a white background. Neither picture is big enough to make a difference in the first place.


its also known as one of the worst box arts in history and is typically looked at as a joke box art.
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/13/2009 2:20:18 PM | message detail
That's the first I heard about its box-art being joke-bad; I understood the only joke about RE was the dialogue.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!