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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 674

KamikazePotato | Posted 4/12/2009 10:35:09 PM | message detail
I'm not good at on-the-fly ratios.

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/12/2009 10:35:12 PM | message detail
Woops, I combined the two Half-Life matches. Ah well, it still has the PC and Xbox vote all to itself and is the far more beloved game. Good enough for me! The original Half-Life is the one that needed the other Square RPG (as well as Ocarina crushing everything), because FFIX actually seems to have fans.
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ZFS | Posted 4/12/2009 10:35:23 PM | message detail
Well, it would have been hard not take FFIX there if you took away CC. I would take FFIX over MP, just to get that out of the way, but with Cross there holding it back HL's probably safer. But I did it for other reasons, too -- namely to ditch SC in round 2 in favor of FFVIII!

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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/12/2009 10:37:00 PM | message detail
I don't know - just how much do you think CC is going to hold FFIX back? Hasn't Square LFF in general been a lot less hindering than Nintendo SFF (pulled this right out of my ass)? That's not even mentioning the fact that Chrono Cross is probably going to bomb.

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transience | Posted 4/12/2009 10:37:18 PM | message detail
I don't think debate is gonna answer anything until we get to it. god knows what happens.
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creativename | Posted 4/12/2009 10:38:21 PM | message detail
I'm wishy-washy on FF9/Half-life. I don't think Cross will do much at all - although the tiny percentage it gets probably will come almost entirely at 9's expense relative to Half-Life. But 9 winning wouldn't be surprising at all, and depending on the day I might even favor it slightly.

HL2>FF12 I'm more confident in. I'd be somewhat surprised if 12 won there.
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creativename | Posted 4/12/2009 10:39:11 PM | message detail
Hasn't Square LFF in general been a lot less hindering than Nintendo SFF (pulled this right out of my ass)

Cloud/Sephiroth was pretty extreme.
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ZFS | Posted 4/12/2009 10:39:15 PM | message detail
Chrono Cross isn't going to be one of these single digit games. It's going to hurt, but I'd be surprise if the hardcore fanbase it has can't keep it in the mid-teens. That's probably enough to hold FFIX back enough for HL to have a run at it. I'm still expecting a close match between the two even then, but you gotta figure HL stands out the most in that match.

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transience | Posted 4/12/2009 10:40:15 PM | message detail
Cross won't be in the mid-teens. that's way too much respect for Cross. 10-11%, maybe, but it's not pushing much over that.
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xyzzy
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/12/2009 10:40:45 PM | message detail
If Serge is able to get mid teens, theres no reason to think CC won't at least.
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ZFS | Posted 4/12/2009 10:40:46 PM | message detail
Yeah, that's probably too high for Cross, thinking about it. I don't expect it to be single digits, though.

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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/12/2009 10:40:54 PM | message detail
Stuff like Cloud/Sephiroth is an extreme case. Let me go find some polls if possible...

Although, yeah, very hard to tell either way. We won't really have an inkling of what happens until the day before; if FFVIII underperforms, FFIX probably doesn't make it.

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creativename | Posted 4/12/2009 10:41:00 PM | message detail
It's going to hurt, but I'd be surprise if the hardcore fanbase it has can't keep it in the mid-teens.

Mid-teens? Against OoT, and a respectable Final Fantasy game SFFing it? I don't see that.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/12/2009 10:41:40 PM | message detail
Serge got Mid-Teens against Pikachu, Tidus, and Isaac.

CC is up against OoT, FFIX (SFF), and Half-Life.

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creativename | Posted 4/12/2009 10:41:48 PM | message detail
I think FFVIII will do very well.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/12/2009 10:42:05 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #164
Serge got Mid-Teens against Pikachu, Tidus, and Isaac.

CC is up against OoT, FFIX (SFF), and Half-Life.


Thank you for cementing my point.
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transience | Posted 4/12/2009 10:42:14 PM | message detail
yeah, FF9 might be in the mid-teens considering Cross and the competition. OOT will make short work of things such as franchise voting.
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ZFS | Posted 4/12/2009 10:43:04 PM | message detail
FFVIII should do really well, but Xenogears is definitely going to keep it from doing what it could do in its match. If 'gears wasn't that, I'd expect FFVIII to do a number on it.

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creativename | Posted 4/12/2009 10:43:57 PM | message detail
I don't think Chrono Cross reaches 15% against OoT alone.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/12/2009 10:44:24 PM | message detail
My point being that Serge faced 3 JRPG characters all leeching his votes, and Tidus >> FF9

So no reason to expect CC to do any worse then Serge without the same type of competition to brutally kill it
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ZFS | Posted 4/12/2009 10:45:21 PM | message detail
Chrono Cross could definitely manage 15% against OoT. Fallout 2 managed nearly 14% against it back then.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1624

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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/12/2009 10:45:31 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2918&num=4
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2922&num=4

Best example I could find on a short notice. Sora (who will be acting as the Chrono Cross, being a non-FF Square entity) didn't hold back Squall much at all.

Well, that's discounting L-Block messing with the results, but...damnit let me try again.

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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/12/2009 10:46:11 PM | message detail
Tidus >> FF9

Do you even think sometimes, man.

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/12/2009 10:46:17 PM | message detail
It's also hard to imagine OoT not hurting FFIX more than Half-Life, even if it's by a smidgen. Half-Life does stand out there... right along with, you know, the juggernaut that'll maul everything.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/12/2009 10:46:39 PM | message detail
I find it kinda funny how you're all hyping FFT to actually beat Pokemon yet give CC the shaft

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=362

I know old poll, but Chrono Cross hate is really overrated
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ZFS | Posted 4/12/2009 10:47:34 PM | message detail
Oh, FFT would crush CC. No doubts about that.

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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/12/2009 10:47:54 PM | message detail
I think any advantage OoT gives to HL is canceled out by franchise voting and FFIX also having its own little set of fans who adore it (although they probably aren't as dedicated as HL's).

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transience | Posted 4/12/2009 10:48:54 PM | message detail
we're 3000 votes above yesterday's poll right now.

woo battletoads why is this funny
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xyzzy
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Lopen | Posted 4/12/2009 10:48:59 PM | message detail
Hahahahaha

Friggin awesome.

Hail PoP.
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So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/12/2009 10:49:16 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=294

Hmm, maybe I shouldn't consider that last poll I posted to be of any value.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/12/2009 10:50:39 PM | message detail
This is way harder than I thought. It's always FFVII mauling something whenever Square meets Square.

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2886&num=4
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2906&num=4

Vivi compared to Leon doesn't do that much worse when Tidus is thrown in...I think?

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/12/2009 10:50:43 PM | message detail
is that a FF cut on SMW I see
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/12/2009 10:50:58 PM | message detail
Battletoad's daytime collapse means that FF shouldn't dip as badly as it would have otherwise, although the lion's share of the gains are obviously going Mario's way.
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edwardsdv | Posted 4/12/2009 10:54:34 PM | message detail
My intuition is that the Final Fantasy Brand name carries the day over the less respected Chrono game.

9s not exactly top tier so far as square is concerned, but then again neither is cross.

The only thing I am sure of is that Half-life will very expectedly bomb.

OOT> FF9>Halflife2>CC
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/12/2009 10:55:24 PM | message detail
I don't get how people expect OoT to get 50% there either.

This is solid competition, its not joke competition in any way
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/12/2009 10:55:53 PM | message detail
Not many people are expecting Half-Life to bomb. It has a very advantageous setup and should be stronger than it was in 2004.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/12/2009 10:57:06 PM | message detail
And Mario starts to sputter. Look for consistent FF cuts during the dead hours!
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W V I | Posted 4/12/2009 10:57:30 PM | message detail
Have we ever considered getting the Contest Stats and Discussion topics stickied?
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Lopen | Posted 4/12/2009 10:58:57 PM | message detail
Man. Why is 4chan rallying Battletoads, they should be rallying FF1. With 4Chan FF1 could take the lead in the night! And wow Mario's % is just plummeting.
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So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/12/2009 10:59:26 PM | message detail
The moderators would probably get sick of stickying and un-stickying a different topic every day.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/12/2009 10:59:39 PM | message detail
Ocarina of Time (2004g) VS Half-Life (2004g)

Ocarina of Time has a strength of 50.80.
Half-Life has a strength of 32.21.

Ocarina of Time wins with 68.30% of the vote!
A win of 32,978 with 90,118 total votes cast.


If Half Life is expected to get 32% on OoT pre Half Life 2 boost, it might be up to 35% now

And shouldn't FF9 be around that same strength, too?

Knowing this, even if CC bombs, I don't see how it gets above low 40s.
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W V I | Posted 4/12/2009 11:01:20 PM | message detail
"The moderators would probably get sick of stickying and un-stickying a different topic every day."

Maybe, but I think red or someone like would probably be willing.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/12/2009 11:02:19 PM | message detail
Or TRE since he actually posts here.
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W V I | Posted 4/12/2009 11:02:44 PM | message detail
...red actually posts here too.
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W V I | Posted 4/12/2009 11:03:02 PM | message detail
Oh, you mean in the topic.

Sure.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/12/2009 11:04:35 PM | message detail
I have FFIV > SMB3 in the division finals, and depending on where these percentages and up and how it does tomorrow, it's not looking like as crazy a pick as it was two hours ago.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/12/2009 11:05:33 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #196
I have FFIV > SMB3 in the division finals, and depending on where these percentages and up and how it does tomorrow, it's not looking like as crazy a pick as it was two hours ago.


I'd still say it does! I can't see SMB holding up enough to SMB3 to let a much weaker game beat it.
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/12/2009 11:08:35 PM | message detail
I don't get how people expect OoT to get 50% there either.

This is solid competition, its not joke competition in any way



http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2630

LoZ:TP got ~54% against FF12 and Gears, and I don't think anybody's taking LoZ:TP over even LoZ:LttP...so LoZ:OoT would do much better. FF9's not going to be much stronger than FF12 while CC leeches some, and HL/Gears should be a decent match too. I don't think it would be shocking to see LoZ:OoT break 50% there.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/12/2009 11:09:30 PM | message detail
Thats also a 3 way poll where higher percentages are easier. And FF9 > FF12, and Half Life >>> Gears of War
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Xuxon | Posted 4/12/2009 11:13:06 PM | message detail
Looks like 4chan is giving up on stuffing.