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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 674

ffmasterjose | Posted 4/12/2009 9:14:25 PM | message detail
C-C-C-COMBO BREAKER!

lol Prince of Persia

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it.

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.

Buy me Bonestorm or go to Hell!

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18/24 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Super Mario World > Final Fantasy | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 4/12/2009 9:23:24 PM | message detail
BATTLETOADS YEAAAAH
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/12/2009 9:23:40 PM | message detail
Prince of Pathetic, more like.
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http://l33trappacat.smackjeeves.com/
LinkLegend27 | Posted 4/12/2009 9:24:11 PM | message detail
ffmasterjose stop stealing all the stats topics jeez
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Fortes in Unitate.
I ain't conceited only positive and way better
SonicRaptor | Posted 4/12/2009 9:25:07 PM | message detail
I just noticed there is ONE zero bracket left.

Just over a division in, and it's been a massacre.
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
charmander6000 | Posted 4/12/2009 9:31:04 PM | message detail
Looks like 4chan has given up. PoP has dropped.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMW > FF Points: 16/24
creativename | Posted 4/12/2009 9:31:29 PM | message detail
Who the **** is rallying for PoP?! I though 4chan understood how lulz work!

Yeah seriously, PoP going up isn't amusing.
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Save_Us.RAT
BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/12/2009 9:31:32 PM | message detail
PLACE YOUR BETS!

How long can PoP's lowest update go? 1%? .9%? Lower?

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MegatokyoEd | Posted 4/12/2009 9:31:33 PM | message detail
4chan lost interest quick after they saw it was a lost cause.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/12/2009 9:31:36 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #006
Looks like 4chan has given up. PoP has dropped.


So did Battletoads, actually. Even SMW had a slight percentage boost that update.
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Mer_Mer_Yes_Mer | Posted 4/12/2009 9:32:39 PM | message detail
okay 4chan focus on FF winning
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Mer and not FastFalcon
SonicRaptor | Posted 4/12/2009 9:32:53 PM | message detail
This is from the previous topic, posting it here because that topic will be closing very soon and there is some debate to be had.

From: hikaruai | #478
by the looks of it i think i have sf 2 goin way to far, that could mean alot of points i wont be getting further down the road. how do u guys think street fighter 2 will fair?...


SMB3 must SFF Sonic 1 in order for SF2 to get out of Round 2. Monkey Island is complete fodder, it finished ahead of two other pieces of fodder and will be crushed in Round 2.

SMW killed Sonic 2 in 2004 proving there is Mario > Sonic SFF relating to their old-school rivalry. So, there is evidence that Sonic is SFF by Mario but judging from the impressive victory Sonic 1 had nobody knows to what degree. Though it's still a safe pick to have SMW > SF2 at this point because Monkey Island won't change anything.

Round 3 is going to be killer, SMB3 and SMW will either split the vote or one will be SFFd. FF4 being in there will hurt things for SF2 because it is a FF game and has strength from the brand name. The safe pick is SMB3 > FF4 because SMB3 was the strongest Mario game in 2004 and FF4 doesn't have to worry about a split like SMW has to worry. This leaves SF2 out in the dark and very likely to be eliminated ESPECIALLY since it lost to Sonic 1. I'm going to be very serious for a moment: if SF2 lost to Sonic 1 what chance in hell does it have against a main series FF title?
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
Gaddswell | Posted 4/12/2009 9:33:37 PM | message detail
Way to drop of there Battletoads!

Looks like 4chan's good for about 250 votes today.
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Hail FastFalcon, our new guru overlord!
SonicRaptor | Posted 4/12/2009 9:34:00 PM | message detail
I think we have our Tanner in this contest folks: over a half-hour in and PoP still has not broken 200 votes.
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
ZFS | Posted 4/12/2009 9:34:02 PM | message detail
I love these updates.

Battletoads: 21.65% ; Final Fantasy: 32.29% ; Super Mario World: 42.20%
Battletoads: 14.44% ; Final Fantasy: 36.82% ; Super Mario World: 46.65%

whoops toads

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creativename | Posted 4/12/2009 9:34:35 PM | message detail
Hard to believe my Oracle for Pop was 7% (and that's only because I thought everyone else was way overshooting it, I think most actually had it in double digits), and yet my guess was more double what its real strength is.
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Save_Us.RAT
BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
Yesmar | Posted 4/12/2009 9:35:04 PM | message detail
I made a topic to tell 4chan to stop voting for PoP, and I can't even find it. <_<
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/12/2009 9:35:08 PM | message detail
How long can PoP's lowest update go? 1%? .9%? Lower?

I already predicted the possiblity of a sub-1% update in the last topic.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
charmander6000 | Posted 4/12/2009 9:35:53 PM | message detail
Nope 4chan took a break.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMW > FF Points: 16/24
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/12/2009 9:37:11 PM | message detail
Hard to believe my Oracle for Pop was 7% (and that's only because I thought everyone else was way overshooting it, I think most actually had it in double digits), and yet my guess was more double what its real strength is.

I had it at 9.48% and I still overshot on it.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/12/2009 9:37:12 PM | message detail
Who are these sick ****s who keep voting for Prince of Persia?
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creativename | Posted 4/12/2009 9:37:33 PM | message detail
I think we have our Tanner in this contest folks

Tanner scoffs at Prince of Persia.
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Save_Us.RAT
BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
MegatokyoEd | Posted 4/12/2009 9:37:49 PM | message detail
Who are these sick ****s who keep voting for Prince of Persia?

The reject 4channers who are doing it wrong.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
WarThaHedgehog | Posted 4/12/2009 9:38:18 PM | message detail
Prince of Persia isn't fit to wipe the dirt off Tanner's boots.
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Masato_Tanaka | Posted 4/12/2009 9:38:50 PM | message detail
Honestly, I doubt those are 4channers voting for PoP
PoP is just getting started

>_>
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/12/2009 9:39:02 PM | message detail
X ****ING D, 3%?

And damn you all for convincing me to back out of FF1 > FF4. Glad I stayed with Mario 3 and Mario World > FF1/4, at least.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Devil May Cry
lancealots_son | Posted 4/12/2009 9:39:10 PM | message detail
I said 4chan wasn't going to be a factor. they seem to be toning down as they get older
Megaman703 | Posted 4/12/2009 9:39:20 PM | message detail
I think every time I see this today I'll laugh out loud.

This is awesome.
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"In the game of chess you can never let your opponent see your pieces."
WarThaHedgehog | Posted 4/12/2009 9:39:21 PM | message detail
Are you saying Prince of Persia might pull 5% updates sometime?
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/12/2009 9:40:38 PM | message detail
GOD DAMMIT POP

If Prince of Persia gets above 3%, this entire contest will be ruined.
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ZFS | Posted 4/12/2009 9:40:47 PM | message detail
And damn you all for convincing me to back out of FF1 > FF4

Nah. That was a good move -- FFIV would be doing better here.

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Mer_Mer_Yes_Mer | Posted 4/12/2009 9:41:00 PM | message detail
damn it FF look alive out there
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Mer and not FastFalcon
charmander6000 | Posted 4/12/2009 9:41:44 PM | message detail
Prince of Persia better not break 3%

Damn you 4chan!
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMW > FF Points: 16/24
Mr3790 | Posted 4/12/2009 9:41:44 PM | message detail
"X ****ING D, 3%?"

Not even that...
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GENO WHIRL!
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/12/2009 9:42:10 PM | message detail

From: ZFS | Posted: 4/13/2009 12:40:47 AM | #031
And damn you all for convincing me to back out of FF1 > FF4

Nah. That was a good move -- FFIV would be doing better here.


You're basing FF4's strength on absolutely nothing. We've already seen FF4 break 40% on Mario 3, then come back today and prove it was no fluke. And Mario World murdering this poll proves CT SFFd it.

Which proves Sonic 2 and 3 are going to eat face in a couple days.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Devil May Cry
SexualPizza | Posted 4/12/2009 9:43:02 PM | message detail
.....aaaaand I just screwed myself by picking FF1 over SMW. Oh well.
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Second best thing in life: Pizza
creativename | Posted 4/12/2009 9:43:02 PM | message detail
Eh, FF4 will brutalize its poll IMO.
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Save_Us.RAT
BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/12/2009 9:43:21 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #035
And Mario World murdering this poll proves CT SFFd it.


?
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: SMW > FF - Points: 16/24 Vote: SMW
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/12/2009 9:44:04 PM | message detail
you guys realize there could be 4channers reading this topic that might now go stuff for pop just for the lulz of your whining, yeah?
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creativename | Posted 4/12/2009 9:44:08 PM | message detail
And Mario World murdering this poll proves CT SFFd it.

Its been five years. Nintendo has boosted relative to Square since then - before this match I really would've doubted FF1 getting 40% on SMB3 again.
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Save_Us.RAT
BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
ZFS | Posted 4/12/2009 9:44:52 PM | message detail
I'm basing it on mostly nothing provable, outside of the fact it manages to outdo FF1 in every favorites poll and it has many more actual fans than the original does. That match against SMB3 was never a 'fluke' -- you didn't need today to prove that to you. Everyone knows why it did as well as it did there, and why it would do well here today. It's all about its name.

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/12/2009 9:45:20 PM | message detail
This is making me feel good about FFIV bruising Mega Man tomorrow. I won't pretend to know how the Final Fantasy SFF will play out, but if IV gets the better of it and moves on, it also makes me feel very good about it making a terrific run.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/12/2009 9:45:27 PM | message detail
Regardless of who does better between FF4 and FF1, the winner has to beat out another FF title and when rely on Mario 3 to help it make up 11% worth of ground. That's borderline ludicrous.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Devil May Cry
Yesmar | Posted 4/12/2009 9:45:38 PM | message detail
you guys realize there could be 4channers reading this topic that might now go stuff for pop just for the lulz of your whining, yeah?

But we're telling them how to *get* lulz!
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/12/2009 9:46:16 PM | message detail

From: Yesmar | #044
you guys realize there could be 4channers reading this topic that might now go stuff for pop just for the lulz of your whining, yeah?

But we're telling them how to *get* lulz!


But they might find lulz at board 8 whiners.
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ZFS | Posted 4/12/2009 9:46:19 PM | message detail
A name, I might add, that won't bring it any luck when you stick it up against another Final Fantasy.

And yeah, creative's got the right idea. FFIV is going to kill its poll tomorrow, worse than SMW is doing here today, though weaker competition will help that.

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creativename | Posted 4/12/2009 9:46:24 PM | message detail
Well Final Fantasy does have the "first in the series" factor. That's really the only thing that would support FF1>FF4.
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Save_Us.RAT
BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/12/2009 9:46:45 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | Posted: 4/13/2009 12:45:20 AM | #042
This is making me feel good about FFIV bruising Mega Man tomorrow. I won't pretend to know how the Final Fantasy SFF will play out, but if IV gets the better of it and moves on, it also makes me feel very good about it making a terrific run.


Or FF1 could make a run. Again, I cannot ever see FF4 breaking 40% on Mario 3.

And if it's 100% franchise voting, put Final Fantasy Legend 3 in a poll against Mario 3 and see if it breaks 40%. The name only means so much.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Devil May Cry
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/12/2009 9:46:55 PM | message detail
Valiant effort by Battletoads.

It's still getting crushed, but it's making some great strides. FF gained less than a hundred votes that update!
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/12/2009 9:47:04 PM | message detail
does FF4 have black mage

no I don't think so
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