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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 673

ffmasterjose | Posted 4/12/2009 8:09:07 AM | message detail
What time is the updater...updating? :05 and :10 don't seem to be right, but neither does :03 and :08
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16/20 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Super Mario Bros. 3 > SimCity | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
tim333 | Posted 4/12/2009 8:14:19 AM | message detail
Looking at the votes, I think this is less about Monkey Island not falling apart outside of its best time like people warned and more about SimCity just not having enough support to take advantage of it.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/12/2009 8:17:09 AM | message detail

From: nintendogirl1 | #070
Albion, why do you keep turning on the Game Privacy Settings? What are you embarrassed about?


I don't, its some kinda bug I still haven't figured out.
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ffmasterjose | Posted 4/12/2009 8:23:37 AM | message detail
MI is still gaining but for the most part they're small gains. Sooo you can start fighting back anytime now SimCity
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16/20 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Super Mario Bros. 3 > SimCity | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
eaglesarebeasts | Posted 4/12/2009 8:23:41 AM | message detail
If its Sonic 1 against these three, what do you see his percentage being? 60%?
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/12/2009 8:24:46 AM | message detail
I think this is over. After taking a nap for a couple hours I came back expecting Monkey Island to be at least a hundred down where I saw when I left around 8:40, but its actually gained?

Yeah, Sim City isn't winning this.
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/12/2009 8:25:29 AM | message detail
Wow, I did not expect to see Monkey Island up this much when I woke up. More surprising is that SimCity has barely cut any votes off its lead in the past 2 hours!

SimCity by the Hour:

1:00 | 55.57%
2:00 | 51.71%
3:00 | 51.74%
4:00 | 45.42%
5:00 | 39.95%
6:00 | 37.04%
7:00 | 37.29%
8:00 | 38.20%
9:00 | 43.84%
10:00 | 48.81%
11:00 | 49.90%

SimCity's current percentage on Monkey Island (at 11:22): 47.20%
Monkey Island's Current Lead: 631
Votes Per Update Needed: 4.18

Based on yesterday's trends, we are almost through half the total votes, so SimCity needs about 52.5% of the remaining votes to come back.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/12/2009 8:28:55 AM | message detail
Guybrush's Europe vote is truly terrifying.
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ffmasterjose | Posted 4/12/2009 8:29:20 AM | message detail
Yikes, that was a piss-poor update for SimCity. I'm starting to lose hope :/
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16/20 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Super Mario Bros. 3 > SimCity | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
Master Moltar | Posted 4/12/2009 8:30:24 AM | message detail
*my reaction of opening up gamefaqs and looking at the poll results*

http://i38.tinypic.com/2cgzwy0.jpg
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Moltar Status: let's go
SimCity/SMB3/TSB/Monkey Island - Bracket: SMB3 > MI - Vote: SMB3 (14/20)
red sox 777 | Posted 4/12/2009 8:31:58 AM | message detail
Europe sucks. At least CTDS has come out in Europe now. You know, now that I think about it, Crono may have gotten close to 60% against Mario in North America in 2004!
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/12/2009 8:33:22 AM | message detail
I don't think people should expect Sim City to do anywhere near its power hour level for the rest of the match. I'm thinking a lot of that strength was from bracket votes since it has shown nothing close to it since.
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SierraMikain | Posted 4/12/2009 8:33:38 AM | message detail
This is over
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/12/2009 8:34:14 AM | message detail
Yeah... Simcity is just rolling over and dying...

...To the Guybrush day vote...
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/12/2009 8:34:21 AM | message detail
And uh, SimCity.....you're supposed to continue the trend of the last few hours by winning this hour. Just because 48% is better than 37% doesn't mean it's good enough.
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Ryu_X | Posted 4/12/2009 8:36:33 AM | message detail
I gonna lol so hard when Tecmo surpases SMB3 with the after school vote, tbqh
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/12/2009 8:37:57 AM | message detail
school on sunday?
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BGE2 - Today: SMB3 > Simcity - Points: 14/20 Vote: SMB3
paulg235 | Posted 4/12/2009 8:38:17 AM | message detail
Come on UK, you're getting sleeeepy.

Dude, it's 4:38PM here. We've got 6 more hours until we call it a night.
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Master Moltar | Posted 4/12/2009 8:38:30 AM | message detail
Also looking at what happened overnight, EuropeFEAR was legit! Wow Monkey Island just wrecked.

It's slowing down, but SimCity can't recover with the morning vote (looks like it's SMB3 and TSB benefitting). This one may be over.

2 upsets called in a row i can't believe this. <3 division 2
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Moltar Status: let's go
SimCity/SMB3/TSB/Monkey Island - Bracket: SMB3 > MI - Vote: SMB3 (14/20)
ffmasterjose | Posted 4/12/2009 8:39:27 AM | message detail
Sunday school MarioSuperstar, duh :P

I was kidding about the UK thing, jeez.

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16/20 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Super Mario Bros. 3 > SimCity | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
RPGuy96 | Posted 4/12/2009 8:40:30 AM | message detail
Holy crap what the hell this is goddamn awesome
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/12/2009 8:41:21 AM | message detail
I'm hoping SimCity's afternoon and evening votes are better than its morning vote. At least the last few hours of the poll Europe will be asleep.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/12/2009 8:41:51 AM | message detail
I never thought I would see the day that Guybrush freaking Threepwood would be advancing in a match, game or not.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/12/2009 8:42:25 AM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #122
I'm hoping SimCity's afternoon and evening votes are better than its morning vote. At least the last few hours of the poll Europe will be asleep.


I'm not really sure how effective the vote will be today due to it being Easter. Shouldn't we have bonky trends and less votes?
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ffmasterjose | Posted 4/12/2009 8:42:52 AM | message detail
This contest destroys all expectations
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16/20 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Super Mario Bros. 3 > SimCity | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
red sox 777 | Posted 4/12/2009 8:43:56 AM | message detail
Well, it's not like we had good data on these games' trends on weekends anyway. I mean, we've never seen SimCity in a match before, and I couldn't find any weekend or summer trends for Guybrush more recent than his match 5 years ago against Bowser.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/12/2009 8:47:46 AM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #126
Well, it's not like we had good data on these games' trends on weekends anyway. I mean, we've never seen SimCity in a match before, and I couldn't find any weekend or summer trends for Guybrush more recent than his match 5 years ago against Bowser.


The Altair/Lucario/Issac/Guybrush match was a Sunday.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 4/12/2009 8:53:09 AM | message detail
Time | Sim City | Mario 3 | Tecmo | Monkey Island
01:00 | 10.43% | 74.78% | 06.44% | 08.34%
02:00 | 09.13% | 75.94% | 06.19% | 08.74%
03:00 | 10.14% | 75.44% | 05.62% | 08.80%
04:00 | 09.74% | 73.28% | 05.48% | 11.50%
05:00 | 09.90% | 70.67% | 04.75% | 14.68%
06:00 | 09.25% | 71.81% | 03.63% | 15.31%
07:00 | 09.91% | 70.43% | 03.35% | 16.31%
08:00 | 09.20% | 71.76% | 03.87% | 15.18%

09:00 | 09.19% | 74.25% | 04.61% | 11.95%
10:00 | 09.45% | 74.76% | 05.32% | 10.47%
11:00 | 09.16% | 76.11% | 05.89% | 08.84%

We should have realized that Guybrush can hold his breath when buried underwater; rather than drowning under a torrent of votes, Monkey Island surged in the dead zone to take a commanding lead. From 5:00 to 8:00, Monkey Island gained 545 votes on SimCity despite the fact that the two combined only pulled in 2454 votes between them! That's an impressive 65.9% of the votes for Monkey Island over that three hour period; it almost brought SMB3 into the high sixties!
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paulg235 | Posted 4/12/2009 8:53:14 AM | message detail
MI's (finally) passed the 700 mark. Could it pass the 1000 mark to miss SB's standard of fun interesting match?
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tim333 | Posted 4/12/2009 8:55:00 AM | message detail
Yesss this is amazing. Monkey Island finally got a match it's going to come out of.

Seriously, MI is a great series and I'm glad to see it finally advance.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/12/2009 8:57:00 AM | message detail
Doesn't Guybrush usually trend worse and worse from here until the end of the match>
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RPGuy96 | Posted 4/12/2009 8:57:16 AM | message detail
Also, Tecmo Super Bowl received 3 votes in the 5:50 (five minute) update. Is that a record, or has Lucas (or Agent J) gone lower than that?
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/12/2009 8:58:00 AM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #131
Doesn't Guybrush usually trend worse and worse from here until the end of the match>


He does. This just shows how pathetic Simcitys day vote is if he can't keep up with the awesomeness of Guybrushs day vote.

Also, Tecmo Super Bowl received 3 votes in the 5:50 (five minute) update. Is that a record, or has Lucas (or Agent J) gone lower than that?

It broke the record overnight of lowest 5 minute update; 1.24%
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Biolizard28 | Posted 4/12/2009 9:00:37 AM | message detail
From: paulg235 | #129
MI's (finally) passed the 700 mark. Could it pass the 1000 mark to miss SB's standard of fun interesting match?

Good one.... I think.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/12/2009 9:02:22 AM | message detail
Simcity decided to show some life there.
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MnMZero | Posted 4/12/2009 9:02:58 AM | message detail
MariOM NOM NOM NOM
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ffmasterjose | Posted 4/12/2009 9:03:18 AM | message detail
Dammit SimCity if you're going to make a cut you better be ready to back that up with MORE cuts. Don't tease like that.
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16/20 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Super Mario Bros. 3 > SimCity | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/12/2009 9:07:58 AM | message detail
Seems Sim City is on to something. If we get another cut here, its a trend.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/12/2009 9:08:42 AM | message detail
Did we just pull a Slowflake?
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BGE2 - Today: SMB3 > Simcity - Points: 14/20 Vote: SMB3
Yesmar | Posted 4/12/2009 9:09:59 AM | message detail
I mean, I'm rooting for SimCity, but it would have to pull off one of the biggest comebacks of all time (proportionally speaking) to win this match.
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/12/2009 9:12:24 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/12/2009 9:14:56 AM | message detail
Right now, Sim City and MI might take up like 25k of the vote combined, yeah? Lets say a full 1v1 vote is 125k.

Righ now, its a 700 vote lead, but thats with very low totals of two games about 10%. If we make it into a 1v1 match, that would be about a 3500 or so vote lead.

This is going to be tough for Simcity to come back from.
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transience | Posted 4/12/2009 9:15:57 AM | message detail
I can't believe you guys are so into Super Monkey Island vs. Simcity battling for 20% of the vote. it's amazing what brackets will do for some people, I guess.

Mario 3 needs some 80% updates. that morning vote that's usually so strong for day vote characters, and Mario in specific, was pretty damn weak. it's starting to come on now, and surprise surprise, Monkey Island's not increasing all that much anymore. not that a comeback should really be expected because of this, but I wouldn't say this match is 100% over.
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paulg235 | Posted 4/12/2009 9:16:44 AM | message detail
Total Votes: 60666
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MnMZero | Posted 4/12/2009 9:16:49 AM | message detail
Super Monkey Island

Do want now.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/12/2009 9:17:20 AM | message detail

From: transience | #143
I can't believe you guys are so into Super Monkey Island vs. Simcity battling for 20% of the vote. it's amazing what brackets will do for some people, I guess.

Mario 3 needs some 80% updates. that morning vote that's usually so strong for day vote characters, and Mario in specific, was pretty damn weak. it's starting to come on now, and surprise surprise, Monkey Island's not increasing all that much anymore. not that a comeback should really be expected because of this, but I wouldn't say this match is 100% over.


Why would we not be into a battle for who advances?
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transience | Posted 4/12/2009 9:18:55 AM | message detail
you can see how much I care. :)

Why would we not be into a battle for who advances?

BECAUSE IT'S SECRET OF MONKEY ISLAND AGAINST SIMCITY FOR 20% OF THE VOTE OH MY GOD PLEASE LET 11 HOURS AND 42 MINUTES PASS QUICKLY
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/12/2009 9:21:09 AM | message detail
-shrug- I mainly care because as a Monkey Island fan, I'm glad to FINALLY see Guybrush and the game do something other then a 4th place finish, and advancing is just icing on the cake.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/12/2009 9:21:39 AM | message detail
Man, this sucks. I'm only getting 2 points every match and I'm in like the 30th percentile.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/12/2009 9:22:31 AM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #149
Man, this sucks. I'm only getting 2 points every match and I'm in like the 30th percentile.


Me too lol. We overanalyze this stuff too much when we have no real data on a game contest in 4ways.
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