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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 672

charmander6000 | Posted 4/11/2009 9:19:05 PM | message detail
these percentages need to hold

this is like 49+ points right here for me

so good


I think most people will score high in the oracle.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB3 > SimCity Points: 14/20
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/11/2009 9:19:12 PM | message detail
mario bleeding percentage in the POWER HOUR?
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/11/2009 9:19:25 PM | message detail
Still waiting on this Guybrush comeback.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Devil May Cry
creativename | Posted 4/11/2009 9:19:34 PM | message detail
Yeah, like I was saying a couple days ago, SMB3 is going to establish an unbreakable 4pack record here.

A three headed monkey could beat Guybrush's day vote, but considering that a 300 vote lead is practically insurmountable at these percentages, Monkey Island might be all right if it can do anything in the night.

If you expect these games to finish around 8%, 50/8=6.25 so a 300 vote lead would be like an 1875 vote lead in a close 1v1. Even a couple hundred votes would be damn hard to come back from - though given how bad Monkey Island will be in the day I'd actually probably expect it to blow a 1000 vote 1v1 lead against SimCity in a 1v1.
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/11/2009 9:19:48 PM | message detail
SMB3 you're going the wrong way.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB3 > SimCity Points: 14/20
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/11/2009 9:20:27 PM | message detail
mario isnt bleeding percentage.. he's just stabilizing.
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BGE2 - Today: SFII > Sonic - Points: 12/16 Vote: SFII
Yesmar | Posted 4/11/2009 9:20:46 PM | message detail
Woah, where is all this talk about SimCity at schools coming from? I never had it at any schools I went to and this is the first I've heard of it being in schools.
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/11/2009 9:21:08 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=3247&type=1&seconds=60&max=0

MI is going to *kill* during that one time period...but if he doesn't start shaping up like right now this is probably over.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/11/2009 9:21:11 PM | message detail

From: Yesmar | #257
Woah, where is all this talk about SimCity at schools coming from? I never had it at any schools I went to and this is the first I've heard of it being in schools.


It became the staple at schools once oregon trail got outdated
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creativename | Posted 4/11/2009 9:21:14 PM | message detail
Needless to say, almost all of Monkey Island's overnight rise will come from SMB3 - but Mario will munch them all back with a vengeance in the day.

Munch munch munch. Mario hungryyyy
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/11/2009 9:21:34 PM | message detail
Link vs Tanner, Mr Driller and Agent J.

Link over 80%?
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Devil May Cry
Yesmar | Posted 4/11/2009 9:22:49 PM | message detail
Why is the same logic about a MI lead being too big to be surmountable at these levels not being applied to whether or not it can *build* the lead to begin with?
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/11/2009 9:23:06 PM | message detail

From: Yesmar | #262
Why is the same logic about a MI lead being too big to be surmountable at these levels not being applied to whether or not it can *build* the lead to begin with?


look at the graph that KP posted
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creativename | Posted 4/11/2009 9:23:10 PM | message detail
Link over 80%?

Yes.

That's holding the rest to an average of under 7...80/87=92%. I think Link would get 92% against all those.
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lancealots_son | Posted 4/11/2009 9:24:04 PM | message detail
Come on Bo. i still believe in you Tecmo Bowl. Unleash the Dragon!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/11/2009 9:24:22 PM | message detail
but if Simcity keeps on going up like this, that time won't matter
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creativename | Posted 4/11/2009 9:24:24 PM | message detail
I think SimCity is a big favorite right now myself.

MI will do well overnight, and people will probably overreact to it.
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/11/2009 9:24:54 PM | message detail
Almost a 100 vote lead for both.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB3 > SimCity Points: 14/20
red sox 777 | Posted 4/11/2009 9:24:58 PM | message detail
Very good update for SimCity there. By the way, SimCity now has 54.59% of the SimCity/Monkey Island votes. If it had that in a 1v1 with normal votals, it'd be about time to call it over. As it is, percentages can fluctuate very quickly with these absurdly low vote totals, so let's give it more time.
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transience | Posted 4/11/2009 9:25:15 PM | message detail
Simcity rocking it now
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/11/2009 9:25:31 PM | message detail
Yeah, this is over. MI probably even takes the lead back overnight, but oh god that day vote.

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red sox 777 | Posted 4/11/2009 9:26:02 PM | message detail
Edit: SimCity is now up to 55.22% with the update that came while I was typing that post.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/11/2009 9:26:02 PM | message detail
Asking Monkey Island to steal votes from Mario 3 and a fellow PC game for a comeback attempt is fairly ridiculous.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 4/11/2009 9:26:14 PM | message detail
Yeah, I don't think Monkey Island can do anything but take a small lead, if that. 100 votes is a hell of a lot at this point.

I'm surprised Mario 3 hasn't taken off yet, really, but I pegged it at just under 75% so this is good from an Oracle standpoint, at least.
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WarThaHedgehog | Posted 4/11/2009 9:26:58 PM | message detail
If SimCity's trends are anything like Civilization's, this is very, very over.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/11/2009 9:27:03 PM | message detail
A thing to consider though. According to vgchartz, I don't see any sales for Europe for Simcity games... did it not release in europe? If its going against MI's europe vote without any of its own...
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/11/2009 9:28:09 PM | message detail
Asking Monkey Island to steal votes from Mario 3 and a fellow PC game for a comeback attempt is fairly ridiculous.

Uh, I think this is over but your logic kind of sucks.

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=2893&type=1&seconds=60&max=0

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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/11/2009 9:29:45 PM | message detail
130 votes now. It'll literally take a miracle for Guybrush at this point.

We should celebrate the gurus actually getting one right. Ladies and gentleman, Conway Twitty! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RpT7-t4b5IE&feature=related
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/11/2009 9:29:55 PM | message detail
At this rate MI won't even lead during the dead zone.
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BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB3 > SimCity Points: 14/20
ffmasterjose | Posted 4/11/2009 9:30:39 PM | message detail
Yikes, SimCity is taking it to Monkey Island.
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16/20 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Super Mario Bros. 3 > SimCity | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/11/2009 9:31:10 PM | message detail
Any europeons here that can confirm or deny if Simcity was released in europe?
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/11/2009 9:32:10 PM | message detail
I hate Geolocation. It brought out some of the absolute stupidest posts I've ever seen in my entire life.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Devil May Cry
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/11/2009 9:32:15 PM | message detail
Glad to see SimCity doing so well after getting snubbed in 2004.

Well, it's not really doing that well I guess, but at least it's gonna advance. I'm happy.
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/11/2009 9:32:20 PM | message detail
SimCity is rapidly closing in on a percentage relative to Monkey Island at which it could collapse as badly as Oregon Trail against Pac-Man with the Europe vote and still win.
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WarThaHedgehog | Posted 4/11/2009 9:32:23 PM | message detail
GameFAQS lists SimCity as having come out in Europe same year as in the US.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/11/2009 9:33:19 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #282
I hate Geolocation. It brought out some of the absolute stupidest posts I've ever seen in my entire life.


I agree so much with this.
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BGE2 - Today: SMB3 > Simcity - Points: 14/20 Vote: SMB3
masseffect90 | Posted 4/11/2009 9:33:31 PM | message detail
Too bad I edited my bracket on the last day. I'll probably finish this division still perfect, but then not be on the leaderboard.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/11/2009 9:33:40 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #282
I hate Geolocation. It brought out some of the absolute stupidest posts I've ever seen in my entire life.


Well after seeing oregon trails complete collapse in europe and this is a similiar game sicne it was popular in schools and stuff, one can't help but wonder!
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/11/2009 9:34:58 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3247&region=EUR

Good christ. MI is done for but that swing is going to be fun to watch!

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charmander6000 | Posted 4/11/2009 9:35:08 PM | message detail
Looks like SMB3 will easily break 75% by the end of the poll.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB3 > SimCity Points: 14/20
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/11/2009 9:35:46 PM | message detail
even now I won't be surprised if MI takes the lead by that point

It won't keep it during the day though
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ffmasterjose | Posted 4/11/2009 9:37:20 PM | message detail
We never played SimCity or anything like that in school. Yeah, I know my educational experience =/= everyone else's, but we did play Oregon Trail. Where's this coming from?

We did play Chex Quest. Man that was awesome. Can I get some hands for fellow Chex Quest players?

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16/20 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Super Mario Bros. 3 > SimCity | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
General_Zimbad | Posted 4/11/2009 9:37:38 PM | message detail
Come on MI, you can do it.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/11/2009 9:37:54 PM | message detail

From: ffmasterjose | #292
We never played SimCity or anything like that in school. Yeah, I know my educational experience =/= everyone else's, but we did play Oregon Trail. Where's this coming from?

We did play Chex Quest. Man that was awesome. Can I get some hands for fellow Chex Quest players?


Dunno about you, but at my school Simcity 2000 was a fixture. Never original Sim City though
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/11/2009 9:38:00 PM | message detail
Chex Quest?

I loved Chex Quest!

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/11/2009 9:39:44 PM | message detail
only 6 vote gain there

if MI starts cutting soon this might not be over
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chaosarcher07 | Posted 4/11/2009 9:39:54 PM | message detail
Why DOES Guybrush pull 28% in Europe?

Is MI big there?

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FALCON PUNCH'D in the Guru Contest by FastFalcon
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/11/2009 9:39:55 PM | message detail
Only a six vote gain by SimCity there.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB3 > SimCity Points: 14/20
Starion | Posted 4/11/2009 9:40:31 PM | message detail
Hmm, the only pre console game in school I remember seeing was a Carmen Sandiego game. Wish there was one in this contest even if it's just a fodder entry.
Xcarvenger | Posted 4/11/2009 9:40:36 PM | message detail
we may see a 1% update tonight or ten. Agent J, you have a challenger!
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