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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 671

BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/10/2009 9:30:34 PM | message detail
Sonic exploded around 6 AM, when the Before School Vote starts. Europe is more influential before this than after, though still strong for a while after. SMRPG also started to flatten SF2 once morning came, and surely you'll not tell me that won the European vote.

Looking at this contest's trends, Europe vote usually starts at 5, and goes until about 7-8 eastern which shifts into the before school vote.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/10/2009 9:30:42 PM | message detail
Sonic day vote vs. SF day vote vs. Castlevania day vote vs. Civ day vote

This is going to be fun to watch.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/10/2009 9:31:08 PM | message detail
sonic for 50%?
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/10/2009 9:31:56 PM | message detail
As for the SMB3 match,

SMB3: 80%
Monkey Island: 8%
Simcity: 7%
Tecmo Super Bowl: 5%

I'm think there's a better than 50% chance that's what ends up happening. But I was also 99% sure on Sonic bombing, wooo

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SHINE GET 64 | Posted 4/10/2009 9:32:10 PM | message detail
It'll be a travesty if Tecmo Bowl doesn't pull 2nd tomorrow. Everyone knows Tecmo Bowl, even the guys I listen to on the radio who don't play video games.
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creativename | Posted 4/10/2009 9:32:47 PM | message detail
Monkey island is by far the most hardcore of the 3 fanbases. They're not going to just abandon a game they constantly get guybrush in from,

At that level, hardcore strength is no different than intrinsic strength. If Monkey Island wins it'll be because it was actually stronger than two other games with garbage strength, by virtue of having slightly less garbagelike strength.

Plus Simcity/Tecmo Bowl get alot of their support from their Nintendo versions, so should lose more support to Mario then MI would.

Did...did you just argue SimCity getting strength from a console version??
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Mr3790 | Posted 4/10/2009 9:32:51 PM | message detail
This contest is evil....
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WarThaHedgehog | Posted 4/10/2009 9:33:38 PM | message detail
Tecmo Super Bowl advancing would be the greatest result in contest history.
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LinkLegend27 | Posted 4/10/2009 9:33:41 PM | message detail
I don't really see Sim City winning tomorrow, it'll definitely be Tecmo or *gasp* Monkey Island.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/10/2009 9:33:41 PM | message detail
Did...did you just argue SimCity getting strength from a console version??

The SNES version sold 2 million. Why not?
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/10/2009 9:34:29 PM | message detail
I took Tecmo there since I can't see either SimCity or Monkey Island doing anything.

Thinking about it, I have no idea what to think about tomorrow. All I know is Mario 3 is going to domirape
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/10/2009 9:34:42 PM | message detail
SFII was leading against SMRPG before being flatened 58/42, I think that was one of the main reasons for the SFII lost fad.

Are the updates even archived somewhere?
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/10/2009 9:35:36 PM | message detail
At that level, hardcore strength is no different than intrinsic strength. If Monkey Island wins it'll be because it was actually stronger than two other games with garbage strength, by virtue of having slightly less garbagelike strength.

That doesn't really make much sense. SImCity and probably even Tecmo have more intrinsic strength than Monkey Island, but take them down to that level and all that's left is the most hardcore fans.

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Team Rocket Elite | Posted 4/10/2009 9:36:03 PM | message detail
Are the updates even archived somewhere?

http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/04Spring/04Spring-AllVoteUpdates.txt
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WarThaHedgehog | Posted 4/10/2009 9:37:03 PM | message detail
What's most amazing is that Tecmo Super Bowl could conceivably do as bad as Oregon Trail did in Europe and still advance.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/10/2009 9:37:09 PM | message detail
The hardcore fans is what will decide tomorrows match.... Mario 3 will just gobble up all the casual fans of the games.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/10/2009 9:37:48 PM | message detail

From: WarThaHedgehog | #265
What's most amazing is that Tecmo Super Bowl could conceivably do as bad as Oregon Trail did in Europe and still advance.


This is one of the main reasons I feel Tecmo Super Bowl is a non factor. It killed Oregon Trail, so I don't see why it won't kill TEcmo.
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/10/2009 9:37:57 PM | message detail
Monkey Island winning would be the first thing remotely approaching evidence we have of hardcore fanbases helping in 4-ways.
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WarThaHedgehog | Posted 4/10/2009 9:38:17 PM | message detail
Bacon needs to split USA into the rest of the country and the state of New York, just to see the impact Thurman Thomas has on the voting. <_<
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/10/2009 9:38:44 PM | message detail
...Yeah...about Tecmo Super Bowl...

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2433

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3196

Did everyone just...forget these polls?

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creativename | Posted 4/10/2009 9:38:51 PM | message detail
The SNES version sold 2 million. Why not?

Seriously? Wow. SimCity on a console actually having success sounds real weird.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/10/2009 9:39:21 PM | message detail

From: creativename | #271
The SNES version sold 2 million. Why not?

Seriously? Wow. SimCity on a console actually having success sounds real weird.


Well, it had Mario And Bowser in it.
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Yesmar | Posted 4/10/2009 9:39:39 PM | message detail
I don't think Monkey Island having a hardcore fanbase will help it that much. The amount of people who would vote for it no matter what is probably less than 1 percent.
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/10/2009 9:40:13 PM | message detail
Well, it had Mario And Bowser in it.

Well then.....all the more votes for SMB3 to SFF away!
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/10/2009 9:40:14 PM | message detail
Monkey Island to beat Mario 3 in sweden tomorrow imho
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Cecil XIX | Posted 4/10/2009 9:40:48 PM | message detail
Well, it had Mario And Bowser in it.

Did anyone ever make a pic for Simcity that was just Bowser demolishing a city?
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/10/2009 9:40:56 PM | message detail
I don't think Monkey Island having a hardcore fanbase will help it that much. The amount of people who would vote for it no matter what is probably less than 1 percent.

They don't need to vote for Monkey Island over everything, just those three games.

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JaKyL25 | Posted 4/10/2009 9:41:08 PM | message detail
The SNES version is the only version of SimCity I've ever actually seen, and it's the same for many in my generation who didn't have personal computers in the early '90s but who rented pretty much any early SNES game we could.
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RockMFR 5 | Posted 4/10/2009 9:41:13 PM | message detail
17:45 | Starcraft | 36719 | +0962 | 47.89% | SSBM | 39958 | +0510 | 52.11% | Lead of 3239 | (Down 452)
18:00 | Starcraft | 38156 | +1437 | 48.51% | SSBM | 40500 | +0542 | 51.49% | Lead of 2344 | (Down 895)
18:15 | Starcraft | 38735 | +0579 | 48.55% | SSBM | 41050 | +0550 | 51.45% | Lead of 2315 | (Down 29)


That was a great match.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/10/2009 9:41:18 PM | message detail
Plus, the console version is why theres a Simcity assist trophy in Brawl.

I think that version is honestly where most of the votes will come from on a site like this.
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creativename | Posted 4/10/2009 9:43:00 PM | message detail
Monkey Island winning would be the first thing remotely approaching evidence we have of hardcore fanbases helping in 4-ways.

Yeah, we've had no evidence of this, yet people keep trying to bring it up as a factor for some reason. It's never really panned out before, you'd think people would learn.


I don't think Monkey Island having a hardcore fanbase will help it that much. The amount of people who would vote for it no matter what is probably less than 1 percent.

Indeed.

Although, since these games could all get single digits, 1% is like 5+% in a 1v1.


They don't need to vote for Monkey Island over everything, just those three games.

One of those games is SMB3, so yes, they basically do.


Did anyone ever make a pic for Simcity that was just Bowser demolishing a city?

That sounds sooo badass! What did Mario do in the game?
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WarThaHedgehog | Posted 4/10/2009 9:43:44 PM | message detail
Mario and Luigi hid.

Because bowser thought they were in your city.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/10/2009 9:43:57 PM | message detail
That sounds sooo badass! What did Mario do in the game?

You were able to win trophys from doing certain events with Mario poses iirc
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/10/2009 9:44:44 PM | message detail
Which is more popular: Guybrush or his first game?
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/10/2009 9:44:47 PM | message detail
They don't need to vote for Monkey Island over everything, just those three games.

Considering SMB3 is so much stronger than the other 2 games, this is very similar to saying they don't need to vote for Monday Island over everything, just SMB3. And the other 2 games also also getting votes from people who just need to vote it over SMB3, basically. So, all this means is that if Monkey Island wins, it would score higher on Mario 3 in a 1v1 than those other games. Which is pretty much the definition we use most often of strength (indirect strength).
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 4/10/2009 9:44:53 PM | message detail
What the hell is up with the logic here. The original assumption was that Sim City got most of its strength from the PC version - but since it sold two million copies on the SNES it's going to be SFF'd by SMB3 and weaker than if it didn't have a SNES version at all?!
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JaKyL25 | Posted 4/10/2009 9:45:16 PM | message detail
Also in such an abysmal battle for second, I almost legitimately feel that a few kids will see the name "Monkey Island," snicker at the funny name, and vote for it, and it will only help.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/10/2009 9:46:49 PM | message detail
...Yeah, you guys are overthinking having a dedicated fanbase waaaaay too much.


I just realized, SimCity has the heavy B8 bracket advantage. It's going to dominate in the opening minute and everyone is going to go nuts. >_>

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/10/2009 9:46:59 PM | message detail
Also another reason I haven't seen brought up about why a hardcore fanbase helps;

with such low vote totals, rallying/stuffing will obviously be a much bigger factor then high vote totals. And will the more hardcore fans not rally/stuff over casual fans of the other series?
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/10/2009 9:47:05 PM | message detail
What the hell is up with the logic here. The original assumption was that Sim City got most of its strength from the PC version - but since it sold two million copies on the SNES it's going to be SFF'd by SMB3 and weaker than if it didn't have a SNES version at all?!

If that was directed at me, it was a joke.
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Same Orphanage | Posted 4/10/2009 9:48:24 PM | message detail
Civilization/Castlevania III match is fantastic, screw Sonic and Street Fighter.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/10/2009 9:49:26 PM | message detail
...Yeah...about Tecmo Super Bowl...

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2433

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3196

Did everyone just...forget these polls?


Sweet, someone else who is citing one of the polls I used to argue Donkey Kong > Punch-Out. And yes, I said in the last topic that Tecmo Super Bowl will fail for the same reason that Madden did.
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creativename | Posted 4/10/2009 9:49:56 PM | message detail
Which is more popular: Guybrush or his first game?

I'd heard of the Monkey Island games, but never Guybrush, before these contests.

The games should be stronger relative to other games than Guybrush to other characters, though they'll still be awfully weak.


So, all this means is that if Monkey Island wins, it would score higher on Mario 3 in a 1v1 than those other games. Which is pretty much the definition we use most often of strength (indirect strength).

Well said.


The original assumption was that Sim City got most of its strength from the PC version

I'd still easily assume this.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/10/2009 9:50:03 PM | message detail
not to mention madden is likely stronger then tecmo super bowl yet couldn't even get double digits
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Team Rocket Elite | Posted 4/10/2009 9:50:06 PM | message detail
with such low vote totals, rallying/stuffing will obviously be a much bigger factor then high vote totals. And will the more hardcore fans not rally/stuff over casual fans of the other series?

If you try to rally votes, they will just go to Mario 3.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/10/2009 9:51:23 PM | message detail

From: Team Rocket Elite | #295
with such low vote totals, rallying/stuffing will obviously be a much bigger factor then high vote totals. And will the more hardcore fans not rally/stuff over casual fans of the other series?

If you try to rally votes, they will just go to Mario 3.


That doesn't matter; its not competing with Mario 3. The amoung of votes Monkey Island does get from rallies will still outdo its 3way competition.
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creativename | Posted 4/10/2009 9:53:26 PM | message detail
I just realized, SimCity has the heavy B8 bracket advantage. It's going to dominate in the opening minute and everyone is going to go nuts. >_>

Monkey Island should "dominate" (hah) the board game. SMB3 might even be held under 70% for a good 60 seconds, that would be a gangbuster performance!

At this point I'd put Monkey Island as the slight favorite for 2nd.
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creativename | Posted 4/10/2009 9:53:56 PM | message detail
*board vote
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/10/2009 9:54:44 PM | message detail
I don't know. How many people here have actually played Monkey Island?

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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/10/2009 9:54:59 PM | message detail
lol first Monday Island and now board game.

This match sucks.
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