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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 670

M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/9/2009 9:49:50 PM | message detail
Guybrush has always broke 10%, and I'd imagine his game will be slightly more recognizable than the character, and the fanbase just as devout. SimCity is a well-known PC series associated with one of the biggest and most recognizable series of PC gaming. Tecmo will be the Galaga.

And while searching for polls, I found this hilarious gem: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=237

Definitely a lot different than how the series contest ended up!
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Dilated Chemist | Posted 4/9/2009 9:50:33 PM | message detail
Contra > Metroid?

Never made sense. EPIC FAIL!

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[ FINAL FOUR ]
FFVII / Super Mario Bros. 3 / LoZ: Ocarina of Time / Metal Gear Solid
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/9/2009 9:51:49 PM | message detail
If I can switch to Monkey Island now, I'd do so in half a second. After seeing what Mario 1 did, Mario 3 is destined to blast 75%+. Any game that hits 10% is automatically moving on, and the more I think about it now, the less I can envision anyone voting Sim City over Mario 3. Argh!
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ffmasterjose | Posted 4/9/2009 9:53:04 PM | message detail
Uuuugh SimCity is walking into a buzzsaw
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10/12 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: The Legend of Zelda > Metroid | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
Dilated Chemist | Posted 4/9/2009 9:53:06 PM | message detail
On a brighter note, this makes me feel great about my SSBM > WW pick in Round 2.

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[ FINAL FOUR ]
FFVII / Super Mario Bros. 3 / LoZ: Ocarina of Time / Metal Gear Solid
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/9/2009 9:53:47 PM | message detail
I personally think none of those 3 games should advance as they all completely suck and are the bottom of the bottom of the barrel turbofodder.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/9/2009 9:54:19 PM | message detail
I don't see why it would. They're not really comparable. Wind Waker is probably the least cared about Zelda game.


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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: LoZ > Contra - Points: 10/12 Vote: Contra
Calintares | Posted 4/9/2009 9:55:54 PM | message detail
In Europe, I would expect something like this:

DW3 was never released there, and the series is not well known there, so it will be turbofodder.

Contra have the disadvantage of being known as "protector" but the series is somewhat know, it will probably go down a bit compared to the rest of the world

Metroid in general is less popular in Europe than in America, so that to will go down a bit.

Zelda is the only series everyone know and care about, so LoZ will suck up most of the losses that the other games have, and I guess it will have a good night vote.

i expect a somewhat low turnout from Europe today, like 13% of the total voters or something.
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Ours is not to reason why, ours is but to do and die.
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/9/2009 9:56:09 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #303
If I can switch to Monkey Island now, I'd do so in half a second. After seeing what Mario 1 did, Mario 3 is destined to blast 75%+. Any game that hits 10% is automatically moving on, and the more I think about it now, the less I can envision anyone voting Sim City over Mario 3. Argh!


It's horrible because there are a ton of games I'd vote SimCity over. SMB1, SMW, any Zelda or FF game... Hell, I think I'd probably vote SimCity over every other game on the bracket.

Except over SMB3. :/
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Dilated Chemist | Posted 4/9/2009 9:57:52 PM | message detail
Doesn't matter, it's still a Zelda game.

IMO, WW rocks. The Celda hate kinda died down a long time ago, dude.

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[ FINAL FOUR ]
FFVII / Super Mario Bros. 3 / LoZ: Ocarina of Time / Metal Gear Solid
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/9/2009 9:58:07 PM | message detail
Why is everybody talking about Europe so much lately?
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: LoZ > Contra - Points: 10/12 Vote: Contra
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/9/2009 9:58:56 PM | message detail

From: Dilated Chemist | #310
Doesn't matter, it's still a Zelda game.


That will arguably still split.

As long as it splits, I doubt it advances. This division has fodder. That division has games people actually care about.

IMO, WW rocks. The Celda hate kinda died down a long time ago, dude.

This has nothing to do with what I meant.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: LoZ > Contra - Points: 10/12 Vote: Contra
ZFS | Posted 4/9/2009 9:59:42 PM | message detail
Geolocation'd

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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/9/2009 10:00:17 PM | message detail

From: MarioSuperstar | #311
Why is everybody talking about Europe so much lately?


Europe decided who advanced in the first two matches. NA had Punch-Out and Oregon Trail getting second, but European votes swayed Donkey Kong and Pac-Man to second overall.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/9/2009 10:01:37 PM | message detail
Because, Europe's terrible taste and completely non-sensical match results have decided several matches alone. Europe contributes a decent enough chunk of the vote that it should be considered as a factor, expecially when judging trends like yesterday.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/9/2009 10:03:29 PM | message detail
Europe's been voting since these contests even started. Can't we just consider intrinsic strengths? Maybe in close matches it's worth consideration but for blowouts, I really doubt it matters.

I mean I wouldn't take Chrono Trigger to lose to before the Quarterfinals because of Europe, because it sucking outside of America is part of its instrinsic strength. It's pretty much a non-factor most of the time, and it's probably only a big deal now because we're in such a dumb division.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: LoZ > Contra - Points: 10/12 Vote: Contra
Dilated Chemist | Posted 4/9/2009 10:03:53 PM | message detail
Yeah, yeah. We'll see.

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[ FINAL FOUR ]
FFVII / Super Mario Bros. 3 / LoZ: Ocarina of Time / Metal Gear Solid
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/9/2009 10:06:42 PM | message detail

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #315
Because, Europe's terrible taste and completely non-sensical match results have decided several matches alone. Europe contributes a decent enough chunk of the vote that it should be considered as a factor, expecially when judging trends like yesterday.


I think it's more Europe having great taste and your taste being horrible.

UK picked Fallout 3 as GotY, so its taste can't be that bad!
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/9/2009 10:06:43 PM | message detail
It means we found someone to blame for games we like losing, and with geolocation, we have proof!
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Best Game Ever Contest II: Score: 6/12
Bracket: The Legend of Zelda > Contra --- Vote: The Legend of Zelda
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/9/2009 10:07:54 PM | message detail
Europe likes Sonic and hates Mega Man. What more proof do you need?
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
LinkLegend27 | Posted 4/9/2009 10:08:04 PM | message detail
I'm loving this contest so far. I don't know about you guys, but this has definitely been the most exciting one, and perhaps on its way to the best one. The first 4 matches have all been toss-ups, with no clear-cut winner. So will the next 2 matches.

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Fortes in Unitate.
I ain't conceited only positive and way better
irriadin | Posted 4/9/2009 10:08:50 PM | message detail
I, personally, can't wait until we get to Starcraft. hehehe...
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/9/2009 10:09:27 PM | message detail
Guybrush has always broke 10%

I would hope he can break 10% again the people he's faced -- outside of Bowser in 2004, here is a quick like of people he has faced and was at least doubled by:

Ryo Hazuki
Duke Nukem*
Gordon Freeman, pre-Orange Box*
Ike, pre-SSBB
Altair

* - probably LFF'd

That's a steady track-record of being embarrassed by lower-end competition from 2002 to last September, and that's neverminding Lucario/Isaac 60-40'd him while probably LFF'ing each other, too.

Way to go on 10+% in every match. Serious Sam, AiAi, and Tanner would be proud.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
Mr3790 | Posted 4/9/2009 10:09:45 PM | message detail
My bracket is dead before the fourth match has ended.

Alas, better luck next time.
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AC:WW Code: Name:Mr.378 Town:Darkcity FC: 4210-5769-8462
GENO WHIRL!
JaKyL25 | Posted 4/9/2009 10:10:04 PM | message detail
The first 4 matches have all been toss-ups, with no clear-cut winner.

Well, for 2nd place at least.
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Thank you, Eddie Guerrero.
Quest For a Second Championship: OWNED by FastFalcon.
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/9/2009 10:10:59 PM | message detail
No one is saying Monkey Island will be worth anything but just enough to beat horrendously weak games being held down by SMB3.

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
JaKyL25 | Posted 4/9/2009 10:11:30 PM | message detail
Way to go on 10+% in every match. Serious Sam, AiAi, and Tanner would be proud.

Hey, I would take Super Monkey Ball or Driver for 2nd tomorrow!
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Thank you, Eddie Guerrero.
Quest For a Second Championship: OWNED by FastFalcon.
HaRRicH | Posted 4/9/2009 10:12:27 PM | message detail
Oh, and I don't mean to insinuate Bowser's excluded because Guybrush didn't get doubled -- he was killed. I excluded him for easily being much more worth a damn than everybody else that's destroyed him, so it's not AS embarrassing.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
JaKyL25 | Posted 4/9/2009 10:12:28 PM | message detail
Err...not tomorrow, against SMB3.
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Thank you, Eddie Guerrero.
Quest For a Second Championship: OWNED by FastFalcon.
LinkLegend27 | Posted 4/9/2009 10:12:43 PM | message detail
Hahaha yeah that's what I meant. Oops
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Fortes in Unitate.
I ain't conceited only positive and way better
HaRRicH | Posted 4/9/2009 10:17:39 PM | message detail
Talking about how a character can break 10% against a weakling or a trio of weaklings isn't a strong point though...for anybody. It's one of the most insignificant things you can say for a character, and using that argument for one of the several games said character is in is NOT worth pointing out.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
masseffect90 | Posted 4/9/2009 10:23:29 PM | message detail
Who else has Sonic I>SFII tomorrow? I know SF II built the fighting genre and all, but it didn't even beat SMRPG in 2004. This was a pretty easy decision for me.
KrahenProphet | Posted 4/9/2009 10:28:39 PM | message detail
Ugh, Contra > Metroid was the one match when I looked back at my bracket that I realized I screwed up. Why the heck did we pick Contra again?
MyWorldIsSega | Posted 4/9/2009 10:30:08 PM | message detail
...Why DID you pick Contra? How did you not have LoZ winning this match?

Is this your first contest?
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SSB Brawl Code: 0903-4850-3529 - *is Tai*
Boston Celtics: 54-19: Next: Friday @ Atlanta Hawks (7:30 PM EST, NBA TV)
nintendogirl1 | Posted 4/9/2009 10:31:07 PM | message detail
"Do you recognize the letters?" Topic Count: 9

Predictions on how many we get by the end of the contest?
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Over or under 40.
KrahenProphet | Posted 4/9/2009 10:44:36 PM | message detail
Oops, well, I was referring to second place. I have Zelda > Contra. I realized the mistake as soon as my bracket was locked. Why the heck did people pick Contra?

Actually, overall I noticed it seems people have little faith in Metroid in this contest. I'm no Metroid fan, but hey, it's Nintendo, so it's going to do well... or something.
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4th place in Summer Contest 2k4
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/9/2009 10:46:32 PM | message detail

From: masseffect90 | #332
Who else has Sonic I>SFII tomorrow? I know SF II built the fighting genre and all, but it didn't even beat SMRPG in 2004. This was a pretty easy decision for me.


You do realize SMRPG woulda owned sonic 2 in 2004 way harder then it owned sf2, yeah? SF2 got 42% on it, and by the xstats, sonic 2 would only get 35% on super mario rpg
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/9/2009 10:51:32 PM | message detail
Sonic 2's result is wrong, we've been over this.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Devil May Cry
The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/9/2009 10:52:00 PM | message detail
Dragon Warrior 3 technically doing worse than Phantasy Star. That's kind of depressing
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Adamantno1 | Posted 4/9/2009 10:52:06 PM | message detail
Contra have the disadvantage of being known as "protector"

"Probotector". They're Robot protectors.

And eh, no, it isn't really. Believe me, Europeans know full and well that the games they played under the name "Probotector" are also known as "Contra" (back in the early 90s, it was probably the most previalent piece of game trivia. If you didn't know this, you didn't qualify as a knowledgable gamer. It was up there with "Mike Tyson was originally the final boss in Punch-Out"), and the series switched it's name to "Contra" after the SNES/Mega Drive games anyway.

The game being called "Contra" in the poll won't change a thing,
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/9/2009 10:52:08 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #338
Sonic 2's result is wrong, we've been over this.


Why? seeing how MM2 bombed, is it not possible that Sonic 2 wasn't SFF'd; just sucked? Well, we'll find out tomorrow at least!
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/9/2009 10:52:34 PM | message detail

From: The n00b Avenger | #339
Dragon Warrior 3 technically doing worse than Phantasy Star. That's kind of depressing


Well now we know which is stronger at least!
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Dilated Chemist | Posted 4/9/2009 10:53:15 PM | message detail
MM2 bombed? Oh, you mean Nerdy Man in White 2.

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[ FINAL FOUR ]
FFVII / Super Mario Bros. 3 / LoZ: Ocarina of Time / Metal Gear Solid
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/9/2009 10:53:58 PM | message detail
And SMRPG ran into CT, so it's not like SFII isn't underestimated in the stats either.

And let's not start on comparing Sonic in 2004 to Sonic nowadays...

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/9/2009 10:56:00 PM | message detail
going by the stats we we have, SF2 > Sonic is actually the safe pick here. Sonic > SF2 would be the upset imo
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Adamantno1 | Posted 4/9/2009 11:00:09 PM | message detail
Oh yeah, and regarding Dragon Warrior 3 in Europe....

Back in the SNES days, there were 2 RPG series we knew of.
Final Fantasy was "that really awesome series we get long write-ups on how awesome is, and are constantly told how much the local distributors suck for not releasing."
Dragon Quest (not Warrior) was "some other RPG series that sells well. ...okay, now back to complaining about how we don't get Final Fantasy"

So yeah, DW3 isn't much more than "Some RPG I've never played" to most Europeans.

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My nick's Adamant. I have a "no 1" that looks stupid. Would've changed it if I could without losing karma. So it's Adamant, not Adamanto or Adamantno.
creativename | Posted 4/9/2009 11:00:57 PM | message detail
Ouch for Contra. Looks like the new generation is totally unfamiliar with it. Same for DW3, I thought it'd squeak into double digits. LoZ gonna get 60% here.

Congrats to Lopen on the Oracle #1! Nice job :)

Probotector. ...Probotector?!
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Save_Us.RAT
BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/9/2009 11:02:12 PM | message detail
We should start getting some better votals for tomorrows match. Both Sonic and SF should be better vote draws in one match then we've had yet.
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creativename | Posted 4/9/2009 11:07:03 PM | message detail
Here's a new toy I made yesterday for all of yous:

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/53

A linear x-stat estimator - this one goes by just keeping the ratios consistent. For instance if a game would be expected to get tripled one-on-one, it gets tripled here. So the model here should be more familiar for everyone.
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Save_Us.RAT
BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
creativename | Posted 4/9/2009 11:09:48 PM | message detail
Ack...it has some bug. Let me see...
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Save_Us.RAT
BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN