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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 670

Childproof | Posted 4/9/2009 9:18:48 PM | message detail
Punch-Out and Contra let me down, both of which were upset picks that didn't pan out.

Both of these were consensus IIRC


I picked DK and Metroid ........ and Duck Hunt. FFFFFFFF
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Today's prediction: ZLEDA 61.02% - Contra 15.73% - Metroid 14.05% - DW III 9.20% - Status:
irriadin | Posted 4/9/2009 9:18:49 PM | message detail
Given Street Fighter II HD Remix and the recent revitalization of Street Fighter (vis-à-vis SFIV), I don't really think SFII will have any issues with Sonic 1. Maybe if it were Sonic 3 there would be some cause for concern, but I don't think Sonic 1 has what it takes to threaten SFII.
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ffmasterjose | Posted 4/9/2009 9:19:37 PM | message detail
Going by guru yeah, Punch-Out and Contra were the cookie pick. Punch-Out I can definitely understand why, lol chokey kong. Contra though, I never really understood >_>
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8/10 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: The Legend of Zelda > Metroid | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
SonicRaptor | Posted 4/9/2009 9:20:19 PM | message detail

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #198
Punch-Out and Contra let me down, both of which were upset picks that didn't pan out.

Both of these were consensus IIRC


Punch-Out and DK were pretty equal in the BOP, more or less. Early on, when I made the pick, it was treated as an upset but more and more people piled on the bandwagon as the bracket-making went on.

Contra though was a consensus though later on I started having doubts and saw it as an upset by the time lockdown happened.
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
Big Bob | Posted 4/9/2009 9:20:21 PM | message detail
Tips for clueless people:

Nobody cares about Street Fighter
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/9/2009 9:20:52 PM | message detail

From: Big Bob | #205
Tips for clueless people:

Nobody cares about Street Fighter


yeah its not like ryu has strength or anything
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Lopen | Posted 4/9/2009 9:21:05 PM | message detail
I never understood Contra either, and I had it! I swear I thought that had "Lopen upset pick" written all over it.

Punch-Out!! too to a lesser degree, actually.
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FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.
SonicRaptor | Posted 4/9/2009 9:21:16 PM | message detail

From: Big Bob | #205
Tips for clueless people:

Nobody cares about Street Fighter


SF4's sales disagree.
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
ZFS | Posted 4/9/2009 9:22:06 PM | message detail
Nobody cares about Street Fighter

Oh

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Adamantno1 | Posted 4/9/2009 9:22:10 PM | message detail
Okay, so about the Europe factor in this update - Contra is nowhere near as weak as some of you apparantly think. It's a definite classic, and despite being called "Probotector" over there, people are perfectly well aware of it being named "Contra" in America, and won't go "What's Contra?"

("River City Ransom" (aka Street Gangs) MAY have a problem with the name, though, but it was never very huge in Europe anyway)

Dragon Warrior 3 is WEAK in Europe. The Dragon Warrior series is not very known, and the early games weren't released there in the first place. The "we play old ass NES RPGs we've barely heard of" crowd isn't large. Chrono Trigger got Europe emulation crowd support, Dragon Warrior 3 doesn't.

Metroid is much weaker than in the US, too, but probably gains a boost for being in a currently popular franchise.

Legend of Zelda is, of course, huge.


Oh yeah, and Tecmo Super Bowl is going to bomb outside America, too. Unlike Oregon Trail, people HAVE heard of this, given it's internet popularity, but they probably haven't played it, having no interest in the subject matter (how many cricket games have you Americans played?), and most definitely aren't going to vote for it.
It's too weak to pass this round. Maybe even weaker than Oregon Trail, which at least has a minimal "internet buddy told me I should play it" factor. Football games do not.

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My nick's Adamant. I have a "no 1" that looks stupid. Would've changed it if I could without losing karma. So it's Adamant, not Adamanto or Adamantno.
charmander6000 | Posted 4/9/2009 9:22:21 PM | message detail
Would you guys take Sonic 1 to lose to SMRPG? I'm basically banking on SFIV.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ > Contra Points: 10/12
MnMZero | Posted 4/9/2009 9:23:22 PM | message detail
People may not care about Sonic games now, but given Sonic's performance in the series contest, people still care about the games they liked in the series. Or at least that's what I'm betting on. I have SFII moving on next round though.
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/9/2009 9:23:26 PM | message detail
Hahaha, so busy catching up on all the TV that was on tonight that I forgot about the match.

Looks like my perfect run is over now. Three matches was a good run for an unpredictable first division.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/9/2009 9:23:41 PM | message detail
Would you guys take Sonic 1 to lose to SMRPG?

HELL yes. By much worse than SFII did.

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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/9/2009 9:24:34 PM | message detail
People may not care about Sonic games now, but given Sonic's performance in the series contest, people still care about the games they liked in the series. Or at least that's what I'm betting on. I have SFII moving on next round though.

Same logic was applied to Mega Man, and...

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/9/2009 9:25:03 PM | message detail
Why do you keep lecturing us about what Europe thinks, as if you're giving us information we haven't had for seven years?
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/9/2009 9:25:07 PM | message detail
smrpg would kill sonic 1
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Team Rocket Elite | Posted 4/9/2009 9:25:23 PM | message detail
People may not care about Sonic games now, but given Sonic's performance in the series contest, people still care about the games they liked in the series. Or at least that's what I'm betting on. I have SFII moving on next round though.

That didn't seem to work too well for Mega Man 2.
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Adamantno1 | Posted 4/9/2009 9:25:46 PM | message detail
Oh, and my bracket apparantly has Contra>Zelda for some dumbass reason.

Bye, perfect.
Damn, and i got Ninja Gaiden>Mario right, too.

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My nick's Adamant. I have a "no 1" that looks stupid. Would've changed it if I could without losing karma. So it's Adamant, not Adamanto or Adamantno.
LinkLegend27 | Posted 4/9/2009 9:25:49 PM | message detail
Since when is there a "Europe vote"?
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/9/2009 9:26:11 PM | message detail
Super Mario RPG (2004g) VS Sonic 2 (2004g)

Super Mario RPG has a strength of 30.26.
Sonic 2 has a strength of 22.17.

Super Mario RPG wins with 63.37% of the vote!
A win of 20,724 with 77,516 total votes cast.


and sonic 2 > sonic 1
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/9/2009 9:26:53 PM | message detail
You picked Ninja Gaiden > Mario 1?
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/9/2009 9:27:08 PM | message detail
There's always been one; it's just that it's rarely been very relevant outside of screwing over Chrono Trigger every time.
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Best Game Ever Contest II: Score: 6/12
Bracket: The Legend of Zelda > Contra --- Vote: The Legend of Zelda
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/9/2009 9:27:17 PM | message detail

From: Adamantno1 | #210
Oh yeah, and Tecmo Super Bowl is going to bomb outside America, too. Unlike Oregon Trail, people HAVE heard of this, given it's internet popularity, but they probably haven't played it, having no interest in the subject matter (how many cricket games have you Americans played?), and most definitely aren't going to vote for it.
It's too weak to pass this round. Maybe even weaker than Oregon Trail, which at least has a minimal "internet buddy told me I should play it" factor. Football games do not.


I know I gave you **** before, but I think you have a point, especially with the Europe vote being so influential so far. I'd imagine it'd have an even bigger impact when there's few votes to go around thanks to SMB3. If Tecmo wasn't already single-digit fodder, it's definitely not gonna advance even if it gets second in the US.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/9/2009 9:27:19 PM | message detail

From: LinkLegend27 | Posted: 4/10/2009 12:25:49 AM | #220
Since when is there a "Europe vote"?


There's always been a minor, overnight Europe vote.
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Lopen | Posted 4/9/2009 9:27:31 PM | message detail
SF2 > Castlevania 3 is more likely than Sonic outlasting SF2 I'm thinking. Sonic 1 shouldn't be that strong.
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So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.
SonicRaptor | Posted 4/9/2009 9:27:57 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #211
Would you guys take Sonic 1 to lose to SMRPG? I'm basically banking on SFIV.


Hell no, Mario > Sonic is something that is almost guaranteed.
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
transience | Posted 4/9/2009 9:28:18 PM | message detail
Since when is there a "Europe vote"?

since we got stats that let us overanalyze stuff to death.
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xyzzy
ffmasterjose | Posted 4/9/2009 9:28:25 PM | message detail
Damn, and i got Ninja Gaiden>Mario right, too.

wut

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10/12 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: The Legend of Zelda > Metroid | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/9/2009 9:28:32 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #225
There's always been a minor, overnight Europe vote.


not really even that minor. Its like 14-18% of the vote typically
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SonicRaptor | Posted 4/9/2009 9:29:02 PM | message detail

From: LinkLegend27 | #220
Since when is there a "Europe vote"?


The early morning hours are when Europe starts to wake up. Obviously, anyone that wakes up usually visits GameFAQs to vote before heading off to school/work which means there is a small Europe voting block in the early morning hours.
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/9/2009 9:29:09 PM | message detail
The other 3 games SMB were up against are piss ass weak in Europe, especially Galaga:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3448&region=EUR

SMB was weakest in North America:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3448&region=NAM
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/9/2009 9:30:21 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #223
There's always been one; it's just that it's rarely been very relevant outside of screwing over Chrono Trigger every time.


It's probably had an effect in more matches than we realized. It's just that obviously until now we've had no way to actually track how many votes were from Europe.

I'm curious as to whether Duck Hunt beat Donkey Kong in North America but the Europe vote cost DH the win. I wonder what other matches would be like that besides the insanely close double or single-digit matches.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/9/2009 9:31:01 PM | message detail
Don't forget Europe is the main reason for Oregon Trail losing. Oregon Trail stomped PAc Mans ass in America.
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SonicRaptor | Posted 4/9/2009 9:31:23 PM | message detail
Netherlands and Canada went for Duck Hunt, the latter I can understand but the former?
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/9/2009 9:31:35 PM | message detail

From: Lopen | #226
SF2 > Castlevania 3 is more likely than Sonic outlasting SF2 I'm thinking. Sonic 1 shouldn't be that strong.


I'm personally rooting for that, for my bracket's sake!
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/9/2009 9:32:09 PM | message detail
Metroid's gains seem to be slowing down a bit. Only a gain of 34 that time.
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transience | Posted 4/9/2009 9:33:01 PM | message detail
Zelda's cruising at a 59% pace now. Mario was pulling 63-69% updates at this time and ended at 70.5%.

I think it's safe to say we'll see Zelda around 61, 62% - a pretty damn good performance considering Metroid's a top 5 game in this division and Contra would probably beat Ninja Gaiden and Duck Hunt.
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LinkLegend27 | Posted 4/9/2009 9:33:04 PM | message detail
Oh, ok. Thanks bros.
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Adamantno1 | Posted 4/9/2009 9:33:15 PM | message detail
wut

Dang, brain collapse or something.

Mario>Ninja Gaiden, of course.

I know I gave you **** before, but I think you have a point

Thanks.
There's definitely a Europe vote to be considered. Even games you consider "relatively huge" will take a massive hit if non-Americans don't vote for them. America may have the largest user base on gameFAQs, but non-Americans are of a significant enough number to prevent stuff like football games from going anywhere if they're up against games people will actually consider voting for.

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My nick's Adamant. I have a "no 1" that looks stupid. Would've changed it if I could without losing karma. So it's Adamant, not Adamanto or Adamantno.
irriadin | Posted 4/9/2009 9:33:23 PM | message detail
So, for the four-pack including Tecmo Super Bowl, what's the favorite for second? It's a given that SMB3 is going to absolutely slaughter everything else, but none of the games in there are even remotely decent. I think Monkey Island is a lock for dead last, with Sim City's questionable "name-recognition" going up against Tecmo SB's rather fanatic niche base in a battle for second.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/9/2009 9:33:57 PM | message detail
It's not that important to analyze in EVERY match, however. We can laugh at the results but jeeze, don't take them seriously.
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BGE2 - Today: LoZ > Contra - Points: 10/12 Vote: Contra
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/9/2009 9:34:01 PM | message detail

From: M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted: 4/10/2009 12:30:21 AM | #233
I'm curious as to whether Duck Hunt beat Donkey Kong in North America but the Europe vote cost DH the win.


North America: Duck Hunt wins by ~350
Europe: Donkey Kong wins by 1600
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Breakdown777 | Posted 4/9/2009 9:34:11 PM | message detail
Street Fighter 2 has a lot going for it against Sonic. The sites older visitors will remember this as the arcade game back in the day (and it was no slouch on the 16-bit consoles either), and the younger crowd have the XBLA remix and SF4 to pull them to it (I have been hearing from some people in the old school SF scene that there have been a lot more players around since 4's release). Plus, it suffers a whole lot less from being the the weakest game of its era in the series. Sonic 1 I think will have people looking at it and thinking "yeah it was fun, but 2 and 3 were better," but SF2 will be grouped in with CE, Turbo, and maybe even Super and Super Turbo without so much as a second thought. It'll be close, but I wouldn't call SF2 the underdog here.
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Lopen | Posted 4/9/2009 9:34:11 PM | message detail
I had SF2 > CV3 until like a day before lockdown. I do think it deserves more upset potential than it's getting.

Given my trends with changing picks (changed from Pac-Man to Oregon Trail and Metroid to Contra) it's looking pretty likely that CV3 has that one !!
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So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.
red sox 777 | Posted 4/9/2009 9:34:14 PM | message detail
Duck Hunt didn't do too differently in Europe and North America, actually- it lost comfortably to Ninja Gaiden in both. But apparently it was packaged in with the NES in Europe too, or we've heard.
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Best Game Ever Contest II: Score: 6/12
Bracket: The Legend of Zelda > Contra --- Vote: The Legend of Zelda
SonicRaptor | Posted 4/9/2009 9:34:51 PM | message detail

From: irriadin | #241
So, for the four-pack including Tecmo Super Bowl, what's the favorite for second? It's a given that SMB3 is going to absolutely slaughter everything else, but none of the games in there are even remotely decent. I think Monkey Island is a lock for dead last, with Sim City's questionable "name-recognition" going up against Tecmo SB's rather fanatic niche base in a battle for second.


Tecmo Super Bowl is the lock for last, I think. It's a serious sports game on a site that has a notorious hatred of them, it is doomed no matter how influential it was. Guybrush gets murdered every contest and I cannot see his game faring any better.

All the games are going to be killed: but SimCity will rise slightly above.
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
RPGuy96 | Posted 4/9/2009 9:34:53 PM | message detail
I'm pretty impressed by Metroid 1 here - yeah, it'll be tripled by Zelda 1 pretty soon, but that's not bad all things considered (the series contest comes to mind...). Makes me feel a little better about Super Metroid in the division final despite LttP.
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RockMFR 5 | Posted 4/9/2009 9:35:15 PM | message detail
Number of users who own game (GameFAQs' My Games data):
Dragon Warrior III: 107
Contra: 211
Metroid: 325
The Legend of Zelda: 656

Predicted percentages based on ownership data (owners / sum of owners):
Dragon Warrior III: 8.23%
Contra: 16.24%
Metroid: 25.02%
The Legend of Zelda: 50.50%

Number of users who rated game (GameFAQs' My Games data):
Dragon Warrior III: 75
Contra: 146
Metroid: 202
The Legend of Zelda: 475

Predicted percentages based on rater data (raters / sum of raters):
Dragon Warrior III: 8.35%
Contra: 16.26%
Metroid: 22.49%
The Legend of Zelda: 52.90%
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MnMZero | Posted 4/9/2009 9:35:27 PM | message detail
I'd easily take any Sonic game over any Mega Man game. I don't think they are exactly in the same boat. I'm not looking for Sonic 1 to be a powerhouse like people were for MM2 anyways. I'm taking it to edge out SFII before a Mario game enters the picture! I'm not suddenly going to say no Sonic game has a chance in its matches because MM2 bombed...
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