GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 670
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/9/2009 3:39:38 PM | message detail |
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The "Ulti is a ****ing idiot for not recognizing Fire Emblem was one of the Es" edition! ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/ http://thengamer.com/xstats http://thengamer.com/stats ~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the match pics*~ http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them. X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process. rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it. For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything. --- .,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,. Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Devil May Cry |
| LinkLegend27 | Posted 4/9/2009 3:40:37 PM | message detail |
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Go Metroid --- Fortes in Unitate. I ain't conceited only positive and way better |
| ffmasterjose | Posted 4/9/2009 3:41:37 PM | message detail |
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Geez Ulti, stop being a Contest Stats and Discussion topic-making...uh...hog! --- 6/8 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest NP: Super Mario Bros. > Ninja Gaiden | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4 |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/9/2009 8:00:07 PM | message detail |
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Round 1 - Division 1: Match 4 Dragon Warrior 3 lol turbofodder Contra ^^vv<><>BA START Wait, doesn't C come before D in the alphabet? Metroid SPOILERS Samus is a girl The Legend of Zelda Zelda dislikes turbofodder. Analysis: With today's impressive performance by Mario 1, Zelda needs to step up the the plate and answer the challenge to see who wins this division. And step up it shall, with yet another weak fourpack. Granted, these guys aren't as week as Adventure, but Zelda will be putting up some huge numbers here. 65% is certainly not unreasonable. Which once again brings us to the discussion for second place. Once again you have a two horse race, with Contra being the guru favourite. We saw Contra beat the crap out of Phantasy Star in 2004 before getting dominated by Final Fantasy. Metroid has a similar record in beating out Pac-Man then getting dominated by Zelda in the next round. Of course, with Zelda here, the safe money is on Contra. Basically, this match comes down to how much ass Zelda feels like kicking today. Contra will likely need to be leading from the get-go, because Metroid will gradually improve throughout the day, due to Contra being completely bastardized and released under a different name in Europe. Another interesting, yet ultimately pointless second place race. TuRtLe's Prediction: Zelda 60%, Contra 16%, Metroid 15%, Dragon Warrior 3 9% TuRtLe's Bracket: Zelda > Contra TuRtLe's Vote: Contra --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1 |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/9/2009 8:01:16 PM | message detail |
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Wait, doesn't C come before D in the alphabet? Now that you mention it, what the hell? --- .,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,. Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Devil May Cry |
| ZFS | Posted 4/9/2009 8:07:27 PM | message detail |
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Yup, totally agree. I submitted a sprite pic earlier, though it's probably too 'stacked' for a round 1 pic -- http://img24.imageshack.us/img24/749/ffivr1.jpg --- http://i44.tinypic.com/sficrr.jpg |
| MnMZero | Posted 4/9/2009 8:08:21 PM | message detail |
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HM is a FF fanboy, always only submitting FF related pics! --- Currently playing: GTAIV, SSBB, MP3, Apollo Justice, FFIVDS, Dracula X |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 4/9/2009 8:09:00 PM | message detail |
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What the hell XD at Probotector. That makes me think of a valient hero who is the guardian of aliens who...well, probe people. --- FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't. |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 4/9/2009 8:10:03 PM | message detail |
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HM is a FF fanboy http://mononoaware.concretebadger.net/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/people-die-if-they-are-killed.jpg --- FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't. |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/9/2009 8:10:08 PM | message detail |
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If contra is gonna be hurting in europe support then I gotta go with Metroid here --- http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/albion+hero.png http://seitoacademy.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/lucky-star1.jpg |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/9/2009 8:10:48 PM | message detail |
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People didn't know about Probotector? I thought this was common
knowledge. It predates the whole green blood in Mortal Kombat thing as
a hilarious lol europe gaming moment. --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1 |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/9/2009 8:12:15 PM | message detail |
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Someone in anime actually said "people die if they are killed"? And people wonder why I hate anime. --- .,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,. Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Devil May Cry |
| Yesmar | Posted 4/9/2009 8:13:31 PM | message detail |
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For what it's worth, here are the hourly updates for Phantasy
Star/Contra. They're the largest vote shift I've ever seen, so maybe
the name change in Europe is relevant for something: Time | Phantasy Star Contra 01:00 | 39.60% | 60.40% 02:00 | 42.47% | 57.53% 03:00 | 44.14% | 55.86% 04:00 | 49.17% | 50.83% 05:00 | 46.09% | 53.91% 06:00 | 48.23% | 51.77% 07:00 | 43.98% | 56.02% 08:00 | 40.90% | 59.10% 09:00 | 41.91% | 58.09% 10:00 | 38.72% | 61.28% 11:00 | 39.61% | 60.39% 12:00 | 38.27% | 61.73% 13:00 | 37.96% | 62.04% 14:00 | 37.53% | 62.47% 15:00 | 36.36% | 63.64% 16:00 | 37.42% | 62.58% 17:00 | 36.58% | 63.42% 18:00 | 35.34% | 64.66% 19:00 | 33.38% | 66.62% ~~ 00:00 | 31.44% | 68.56% --- FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest! |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 4/9/2009 8:13:34 PM | message detail |
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Someone in anime actually said "people die if they are killed"? And people wonder why I hate anime. Blame fan translators. --- FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't. |
| Lopen | Posted 4/9/2009 8:13:55 PM | message detail |
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http://img24.imageshack.us/img24/749/ffivr1.jpg No Edge = no thanks. --- So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better! FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost. |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/9/2009 8:14:10 PM | message detail |
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04:00 | 49.17% | 50.83% 05:00 | 46.09% | 53.91% 06:00 | 48.23% | 51.77% 07:00 | 43.98% | 56.02% Holy crap --- http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/albion+hero.png http://seitoacademy.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/lucky-star1.jpg |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/9/2009 8:14:11 PM | message detail |
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I think that's more of a jab at the fan-translation community. lol people who translate things literally because it's more "pure". Reminds me of a terrible romhack I played of FF6 where the characters swore and Celes got violated. --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1 |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 4/9/2009 8:14:18 PM | message detail |
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04:00 | 49.17% | 50.83% ...oh, wow. --- FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't. |
| Team Rocket Elite | Posted 4/9/2009 8:14:22 PM | message detail |
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Wait, doesn't C come before D in the alphabet? It swapped postions with Civ. --- Shall I take you with me? To the place in this town where wishes come true... |
| ZFS | Posted 4/9/2009 8:15:17 PM | message detail |
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Final Fantasy best ever It's probably the most photogenic series in the contest, too. So easy to make a good pic involving something FF-related! --- http://i44.tinypic.com/sficrr.jpg |
| MnMZero | Posted 4/9/2009 8:15:21 PM | message detail |
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I was more or less just pointing out HM's pic discrimination! --- Currently playing: GTAIV, SSBB, MP3, Apollo Justice, FFIVDS, Dracula X |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/9/2009 8:15:50 PM | message detail |
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And Bacon was too lazy to correct the placement? lol failer bacon --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1 |
| MnMZero | Posted 4/9/2009 8:16:22 PM | message detail |
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I enjoy creating pics for the old school classics more myself! Things that actually need it! --- Currently playing: GTAIV, SSBB, MP3, Apollo Justice, FFIVDS, Dracula X |
| ZFS | Posted 4/9/2009 8:16:27 PM | message detail |
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No Edge = no thanks. Haha. Edge no chance against the AVENGER --- http://i44.tinypic.com/sficrr.jpg |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 4/9/2009 8:17:12 PM | message detail |
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By the way, where are you getting those numbers? I thought all the info
we had on poll updates from 2k4 was from Goldeneye/PDS onward. --- FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't. |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/9/2009 8:17:32 PM | message detail |
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Celes got violated. but... she did. She was hunt up in chains with like 3 guys there, in a vulnerable position what do you THINK happened? --- http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/albion+hero.png http://seitoacademy.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/lucky-star1.jpg |
| trannyscience | Posted 4/9/2009 8:18:12 PM | message detail |
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Europe is pretty nuts for Sega, that doesn't surprise me *that* much. --- xyzzy http://i42.tinypic.com/2vbwhn4.jpg |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/9/2009 8:18:21 PM | message detail |
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*hung up --- http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/albion+hero.png http://seitoacademy.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/lucky-star1.jpg |
| Lopen | Posted 4/9/2009 8:19:05 PM | message detail |
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No Edge = no thanks. Well yeah AVENGER is necessary, but who says we need a cliche formation. Rosa should've been given the boot imhhho. Although a backrow Edge is like 1/2 as badass. --- So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better! FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost. |
| Team Rocket Elite | Posted 4/9/2009 8:19:19 PM | message detail |
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By the way, where are you getting those numbers? I thought all the
info we had on poll updates from 2k4 was from Goldeneye/PDS onward. http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/04Spring/04Spring-AllVoteUpdates.txt --- Shall I take you with me? To the place in this town where wishes come true... |
| Lopen | Posted 4/9/2009 8:19:37 PM | message detail |
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And whoo quoting my own post again instead of the reply to my post. --- So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better! FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost. |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/9/2009 8:20:41 PM | message detail |
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I really don't care and the only reason the fan translator (Sky Redner
or something) included that was to be "edgy". Is it really necessary to
have characters swear? Does it further the plot if Celes was raped? If
anything, it just creates more plotholes because she was planted in the
Returners as a spy and didn't actually defect until the Magitek factory. --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1 |
| trannyscience | Posted 4/9/2009 8:20:54 PM | message detail |
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Edge is just "bad", man. get ready for some one hit ko --- xyzzy http://i42.tinypic.com/2vbwhn4.jpg |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/9/2009 8:21:49 PM | message detail |
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Does it further the plot if Celes was raped? meh, obviously its not going to come out and say it, but it just seems pretty obvious the way it was set up that something happened. --- http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/albion+hero.png http://seitoacademy.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/lucky-star1.jpg |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/9/2009 8:21:56 PM | message detail |
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From: trannyscience | #027 That's a good point. I forgot that we had data on a previous Contra match and didn't think the disparity would be THAT much. --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1 |
| Lopen | Posted 4/9/2009 8:22:09 PM | message detail |
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Listen I know Edge is powerful and all but he doesn't OHKO things that often. Damage cap and all that. --- So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better! FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost. |
| Yesmar | Posted 4/9/2009 8:22:13 PM | message detail |
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By the way, where are you getting those numbers? I thought all the
info we had on poll updates from 2k4 was from Goldeneye/PDS onward. http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/04Spring/04Spring-AllVoteUpdates.txt I was also able to track down numbers for Tidus/Ganondorf, Sam/Magus and Mario/Crono II from old stats topics. Magus/Ganondorf and DK/Tommy ahve some numbers saved too, but they're formatted differently, and I'm not sure how to translate them to hourly updates. solarshadow's old website had a graph for Cloud/Pikachu as well. Holy crap That's not as bad as SMRPG/SFII: 05:00 | 50.48% | 49.52% 06:00 | 57.17% | 42.83% --- FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest! |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/9/2009 8:22:41 PM | message detail |
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And original versions of FF on the SNES did swear... not totally crazy like, but like FF7 level if maybe just a little bit less. --- http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/albion+hero.png http://seitoacademy.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/lucky-star1.jpg |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/9/2009 8:23:10 PM | message detail |
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How so? Remember what Kefka says when they're in the Magitek facility.
Celes was planted with the returners so she could betray them later.
Why would they rape her if she was still on their side? --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1 |
| Lopen | Posted 4/9/2009 8:23:13 PM | message detail |
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meh, obviously its not going to come out and say it, but it just
seems pretty obvious the way it was set up that something happened. I never assumed that when I played the game ever. I pretty much agree with TuRtLe on this matter, actually. --- So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better! FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost. |
| ZFS | Posted 4/9/2009 8:23:40 PM | message detail |
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You've got numbers for Tidus/Ganondorf? I'd be kinda interested in seeing those. --- http://i44.tinypic.com/sficrr.jpg |
| charmander6000 | Posted 4/9/2009 8:24:19 PM | message detail |
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Match IV: Dragon Warrior III vs. Contra vs. Metroid vs. The Legend of Zelda Information: Name: Dragon Warrior III Year: 1988 System: NES 2004 Performance: Did not enter Name: Contra Year: 1988 System: NES 2004 Performance: 61.02% against Phantasy Star, 29.95% against Final Fantasy Name: Metroid Year: 1986 System: NES 2004 Performance: 68.51% against Pac-Man, 21.96% against Super Mario Bros. 3 Name: The Legend of Zelda Year: 1987 System: NES 2004 Performance: 95.20% against Adventure, 87.04% against Donkey Kong, 74.57% against Tetris, 43.22% against Super Mario Bros. 3 Analysis I’d like to start off by pointing that Bacon fails at putting games in alphabetical order and used Dragon Warrior’s Japan release in the placing of this division. The final match of this division is the most stacked, not only does it have the favourite to win it, but I’d take Metroid and Contra to place in any other match in this division and Dragon Warrior III can probably defeat a fair number of games as well. Edit: Upon review of previous stats and notes it seems that Dragon Warrior III and Civilization were switched during the add/remove process for whatever reason. Like the rest of the matches so far Zelda shouldn’t have a problem taking first in this match. The only competition this game has in this division is Super Mario Bros. and right now it’s blowing away the competition. Zelda won’t reach the percent that Super Mario Bros. is getting and with Zelda’s competition it would be too much to ask for, still breaking 50% shouldn’t be out of the realms of possibility. Dragon Warrior III may have been popular back in the day, but like so many games in this division and the next time hasn’t gone well with it. The series use to rival Final Fantasy in popularity, but outside of Japan, where it is illegal to release a Dragon Warrior (Quest) game on the weekday the series isn’t talked about much. Even in the series contest it was nothing special. The defeat won’t be as bad as Galaga or Space Invaders, but Dragon Warrior III won’t be in a position to upset third place. For the fight for second place Contra is the overwhelming favourite though this overconfidence could be its downfall. In a fair fight Metroid would have no problem dealing with Contra, mostly because of franchise votes; however with Zelda in the match Metroid is severely weakened. Against SMB3 Metroid was SFF enough for it to rank below Contra. The problem is Zelda may not SFF Metroid as badly as SMB3 did and while the site isn’t as big no Nintendo as they were in 2005 and 2006 it is possible that Nintendo is still favoured more now than it was in 2004. For Metroid to place it would have to hope that Zelda doesn’t SFF it too badly, which hasn’t really worked in the past, just ask Duck Hunt. For Metroid to win Contra would have to be pathetic compare to what it was in 2004 and I see no reason why it would fall anymore than it has since 2004. It’s a shame though Metroid could potentially be the third strongest game in this division and would have been much better off on the other side of the division away from Zelda and SMB. Zelda walks away with first while Contra utilizes SFF and takes second. Metroid does have a chance, but it would require it to avoid enough SFF to place it ahead of Contra. Sadly for a game that gets a lot of votes from franchise voting I don’t see that working in its favour. Like the other matches before Dragon Warrior III will be a spectator not really affecting much in this match. charmander6000’s Bracket: The Legend of Zelda > Contra charmander6000’s Prediction: The Legend of Zelda – 55.73%, Contra – 17.42%, Metroid – 15.64%, Dragon Warrior III – 11.21% --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB > NG Points: 6/8 |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/9/2009 8:24:29 PM | message detail |
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Maybe I'm just a perv to see it that way >_> But I just can't see
how they can have a girl all beat up and hung by chains in a vulnerable
position with 3 guys and it NOT hinting any violation happened. --- http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/albion+hero.png http://seitoacademy.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/lucky-star1.jpg |
| Yesmar | Posted 4/9/2009 8:24:44 PM | message detail |
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Time | Tidus Ganondorf 01:00 | 47.91% | 52.09% 02:00 | 48.57% | 51.43% 03:00 | 51.85% | 48.15% 04:00 | 51.20% | 48.80% 05:00 | 51.28% | 48.72% 06:00 | 52.59% | 47.41% 07:00 | 50.57% | 49.43% 08:00 | 50.14% | 49.86% 09:00 | 49.65% | 50.35% 10:00 | 49.01% | 50.99% 11:00 | 48.28% | 51.72% 12:00 | 48.19% | 51.81% 13:00 | 48.46% | 51.54% 14:00 | 48.81% | 51.19% 15:00 | 47.86% | 52.14% 16:00 | 49.41% | 50.59% 17:00 | 49.29% | 50.71% 18:00 | 48.69% | 51.31% 19:00 | 48.79% | 51.21% 20:00 | 51.01% | 48.99% 21:00 | 51.58% | 48.42% 22:00 | 51.44% | 48.56% 23:00 | 50.42% | 49.58% 00:00 | 48.70% | 51.30% Weird that Ganondorf wins the last hour. He wasn't in any trouble of losing at that point. --- FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest! |
| Yesmar | Posted 4/9/2009 8:25:05 PM | message detail |
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Oh, TRE was the one who originally saved the numbers. --- FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest! |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/9/2009 8:25:42 PM | message detail |
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Not to mention the majority of Celes hentai out there is in relation to that scene >_>; --- http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/albion+hero.png http://seitoacademy.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/lucky-star1.jpg |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 4/9/2009 8:26:31 PM | message detail |
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Not to mention the majority of Celes hentai out there is in relation to that scene >_>; That has more to do with the Japanese having ****ed up fetishes than anything else. --- FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't. |
| ZFS | Posted 4/9/2009 8:27:04 PM | message detail |
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Middle part of the match killed Tidus. Sucks! Surprised he did so well during the morning, although the trends might have been different then. I didn't follow the contest too closely back in 03. --- http://i44.tinypic.com/sficrr.jpg |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/9/2009 8:28:31 PM | message detail |
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From: MyWorldIsCrono | #046 There's hentai of Celes? What did they have to work with, her sprite? Yet somehow this doesn't surprise me lol japan --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1 |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/9/2009 8:29:31 PM | message detail |
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From: ZFS | #048 Isn't the morning Ganondorf's usual worst time? I seem to remember him choking some match away in the morning. Might have been Ganondorf/Vincent --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1 |
