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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 669

UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/8/2009 10:27:22 PM | message detail
A 669 with 2 guys and 1 girl would be quite the interesting position, wouldn't you say?



~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it.

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Devil May Cry
masseffect90 | Posted 4/8/2009 10:28:26 PM | message detail
first
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/8/2009 10:28:48 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/8/2009 11:01:14 PM | message detail
Tag
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 4/8/2009 11:02:16 PM | message detail
Oh man
another ridiculous first post
GET YOUR ACT TOGETHER DUCK HUNT DAMNIT
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/8/2009 11:08:54 PM | message detail
http://img27.imageshack.us/img27/6500/thatdamndog.png

I could be sleeping right now

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/8/2009 11:11:21 PM | message detail
hahaha that is awesome
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http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/albion+hero.png
http://seitoacademy.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/lucky-star1.jpg
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 4/8/2009 11:11:54 PM | message detail
augh that update was terrible
and that one vote cut looked a lot stronger for some reason, I misread it
...I do that a lot
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/8/2009 11:12:04 PM | message detail
You gotta admit...If Ninja Gaiden fails to beat Duck Hunt with Super Mario Bros. in the poll, it might as well be considered the greatest choker EVER.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/8/2009 11:13:00 PM | message detail
You gotta admit...If Ninja Gaiden fails to beat Duck Hunt with Super Mario Bros. in the poll, it might as well be considered the greatest choker EVER.

Are you kidding? Duck Hunt always had a very good shot at winning.

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 4/8/2009 11:13:20 PM | message detail
Damn that Dog


NG is loosing since it didnt have Robert or Ashtar.
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 4/8/2009 11:14:57 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 4/8/2009 11:15:16 PM | message detail
....This is just too ironic and coincidental

http://ninjagaiden.wikia.com/wiki/Ashtar

Look at the ad in the bot.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/8/2009 11:16:55 PM | message detail
lol, nice shop.
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Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 4/8/2009 11:17:42 PM | message detail
aww they got rid of the ad :/

I think
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/8/2009 11:18:04 PM | message detail
I saw a duck hunt ad.
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http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/albion+hero.png
http://seitoacademy.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/lucky-star1.jpg
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 4/8/2009 11:21:22 PM | message detail
Looks like Duck Hunt is ****ed :/

welp there goes another 2 points
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/8/2009 11:22:24 PM | message detail
Finally, Ninja Gaiden is moving again. The second hour of any match could be seen as a hybrid Power Hour/night vote period, so Duck Hunt still had some strength left in it after the Power Hour ended.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/8/2009 11:23:05 PM | message detail
now thats the kinda update I like
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http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/albion+hero.png
http://seitoacademy.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/lucky-star1.jpg
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/8/2009 11:27:09 PM | message detail
Ugh. I just want these trends to start making sense before I turn in.

Which they won't anytime soon, if ever, so night.

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
Copper_17 | Posted 4/8/2009 11:27:59 PM | message detail
Come on Duck Hunt, seriously.
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Please watch my Vice City Stunt Videos: http://www.youtube.com/Copper17 Enjoy.
greatone10 | Posted 4/8/2009 11:29:53 PM | message detail
It took forever, but finally Gaiden broke the 100 barrier.
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Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09.
vs. Super Mario RPG, Goldeneye, Resident Evil 2. Ugh, my top 3 games in the same match.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/8/2009 11:31:39 PM | message detail
and now its under 100 votes
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http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/albion+hero.png
http://seitoacademy.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/lucky-star1.jpg
Gaddswell | Posted 4/8/2009 11:43:27 PM | message detail
Duck Hunt really doesn't want this to get too far over 100.

Back under 90 again.
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Hail FastFalcon, our new guru overlord!
ZFS | Posted 4/8/2009 11:45:41 PM | message detail
This'll probably go the same way that DK/Punch-Out did.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/8/2009 11:47:06 PM | message detail
NG now has its biggest lead!
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http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/albion+hero.png
http://seitoacademy.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/lucky-star1.jpg
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/8/2009 11:52:40 PM | message detail
Seems Duck Hunt is starting to reach its dead zone. 8% the last two updates.
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http://seitoacademy.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/lucky-star1.jpg
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/8/2009 11:54:55 PM | message detail
Galaga was just 2 votes away from tieing with Duck Hunt on that update.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
red sox 777 | Posted 4/8/2009 11:57:09 PM | message detail
I just remembered something: I think DK/DH was the very first time we saw the ASV in action. Up to then, we'd only had contests in the summer, so we were quite floored by Duck Hunt's comeback that did not follow our prior conception of what the day vote was!
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Best Game Ever Contest II: Score: 4/8
Bracket: Super Mario Bros. > Duck Hunt --- Vote: Duck Hunt
HaRRicH | Posted 4/8/2009 11:57:31 PM | message detail
I'm quite impressed with SMB here, though I don't think it means much about how it'll fare against LoZ in the upcoming rounds other than it won't embarrass itself; any talk of LoZ destroying SMB like some people said pre-contest should halt. I don't think this says a lot about who wins or loses though.

I'm rooting for DH with my heart, but rooting for NG with my bracket...so go Duck Hunt!
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/8/2009 11:58:00 PM | message detail
Funny that the original ASVer will be schooled today!
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http://seitoacademy.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/lucky-star1.jpg
voltch | Posted 4/9/2009 12:01:26 AM | message detail
i'm feeling bad about my SMB>zelda pic,i reckon it'll be close but zeldas tend to screwme over so many times....
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*Shakes Fist*
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/9/2009 12:15:11 AM | message detail
I finally saw what just happened on the 3:06 update. 20% update for Ninja Gaiden? 3.28% update for Galaga? Wow. Ninja Gaiden's best update and Galaga's worst update occuring at the same time.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/9/2009 12:22:09 AM | message detail
These Ninja Gaiden spikes are making me uncomfortable.

Duck Hunt finally lost an update to Galaga.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
Gaddswell | Posted 4/9/2009 12:22:46 AM | message detail
GALAGA CUT!
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http://www.court-records.net/manga/4koma/(eng)4koma2.png
Hail FastFalcon, our new guru overlord!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/9/2009 12:24:52 AM | message detail
duck hunt is freaking pathetic in deep night
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http://seitoacademy.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/lucky-star1.jpg
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 4/9/2009 12:25:58 AM | message detail
Duck Hunt better be randomly awesome with the day vote, this is really discouraging

I guess Ninjas would be more likely to vote during the dead hours though
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
ffmasterjose | Posted 4/9/2009 12:27:35 AM | message detail
Come on Ninja Gaiden, keep padding that lead. You're going to need every single vote. >_>
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6/8 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Super Mario Bros. > Ninja Gaiden | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
Dilated Chemist | Posted 4/9/2009 12:39:07 AM | message detail
3 stalls in a row. A trend? I hope not. >,>

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[ FINAL FOUR ]
FFVII / Super Mario Bros. 3 / LoZ: Ocarina of Time / Metal Gear Solid
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/9/2009 12:42:17 AM | message detail
mario is STILL going up

crazy
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http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/albion+hero.png
http://seitoacademy.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/lucky-star1.jpg
Dilated Chemist | Posted 4/9/2009 12:48:20 AM | message detail
Well, I'm glad I have Super Mario Bros. getting out of this division (along side LoZ), I almost dropped it for Tetris. >,>

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[ FINAL FOUR ]
FFVII / Super Mario Bros. 3 / LoZ: Ocarina of Time / Metal Gear Solid
The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/9/2009 1:02:55 AM | message detail
The other countries are so apathetic to the other 3 games that Mario is dominating the dead hours
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
Gaddswell | Posted 4/9/2009 2:13:21 AM | message detail
There's 400 for Ninja Gaiden!

How much more does it need before we can start calling it safe?
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Hail FastFalcon, our new guru overlord!
Dilated Chemist | Posted 4/9/2009 2:14:32 AM | message detail
400 more and I'll feel great.

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[ FINAL FOUR ]
FFVII / Super Mario Bros. 3 / LoZ: Ocarina of Time / Metal Gear Solid
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/9/2009 2:23:32 AM | message detail
SMB is already pulling 74% updates during its worst time. I can't wait to see what it does in the ASV.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
masseffect90 | Posted 4/9/2009 2:26:43 AM | message detail
12/12 if Gaiden holds on. Zelda over Metroid tomorrow.
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/9/2009 2:27:16 AM | message detail
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/9/2009 3:42:17 AM | message detail
mario is STILL going up

crazy


At this rate, it could finish above 70%. But I would definitely call at least 69% for a lock.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
Dilated Chemist | Posted 4/9/2009 2:43:11 AM | message detail

From: masseffect90 | #046
12/12 if Gaiden holds on. Zelda over Metroid tomorrow.


After tomorrow you will be 14/16. =P

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[ FINAL FOUR ]
FFVII / Super Mario Bros. 3 / LoZ: Ocarina of Time / Metal Gear Solid
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/9/2009 2:52:05 AM | message detail
I saw that Galaga had a 2.43% update. Come on Galaga, break Lucas's record of a 1.91% update.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
Gaddswell | Posted 4/9/2009 3:08:04 AM | message detail
78% SMB update

The Mario morning vote is here!
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http://www.court-records.net/manga/4koma/(eng)4koma2.png
Hail FastFalcon, our new guru overlord!