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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 668

MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/8/2009 9:58:32 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #345
This is probably a really stupid question, but how well did Ryu H typically do during the day? I vaguely remember him coming back on Jill around lunch time (twice), but it's been a long time and the memory is sketchy when you're old <_<


http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=3262&type=2&seconds=60&max=0
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/8/2009 9:58:32 PM | message detail
The fact that it went even with Ninja Gaiden during the Power Hour definitely does not bode well, and NG is going to tear up the joint as the night goes on.

This is true.

However, the argument that the NES Ninja Gaiden will somehow channel the ASV of the Xbox Ninja Gaiden- you'd think Mario and Zelda games could do that, no? And yet Zelda 1 and Mario 3 had pretty poor day votes in 2004. You'd think a game as mainstream as Tetris wouldn't lose ground to stuff like Donkey Kong and Punch-Out, wouldn't you? And why did Oregon Trail win the ASV yesterday over Pac-Man and MM2?
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Best Game Ever Contest II: Score: 4/8
Bracket: Super Mario Bros. > Duck Hunt --- Vote: Duck Hunt
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/8/2009 9:58:39 PM | message detail

From: WarThaHedgehog | Posted: 4/9/2009 12:56:20 AM | #343
There's a 12 vote update!

Ninja Gaiden burying Ulti's liberal estimate.


Let's freaking do this. I love Duck Hunt and have it in my bracket, but I couldn't at all complain if Ninja Gaiden won. Despite writing a review where I crush the game for being too hard, it's one of those games I can have fun with despite thinking it's kinda bad.

You know, like Tecmo Super Bowl.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/8/2009 9:58:45 PM | message detail
Hayabusa was losing to Zero until the day IIRC and came back with the ASV. And Zero has a fairly average ASV. Hayabusa's best time in that match was the morning (darn u europe) vote though.
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/8/2009 9:59:18 PM | message detail
Votals between two games in 4-ways are already small enough when they're mid-carders or whatever. We're talking two fodderific games where the bottom three don't even make up a third of the total votes. 1000 vote leads is going to be ****ing impossible when the available votes are this low.

A 500 vote lead between DH/NG would probably equate to a 3000 or 4000 vote lead in a traditional 1v1 match. Too lazy to do any actual computations.
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Lopen | Posted 4/8/2009 9:59:31 PM | message detail
I'm not offended I really just had no idea what you were talking about, and your initial statement poking fun at me was basically completely wrong. I just thought it was funny.

I may have said that but I don't really remember it. Knowing you I might've just been ranting with only you taking it seriously, too. At best I think I said Oregon Trail would have a good ASV and that Pac-Man would need a lead or something going into it, and I was right (sort of... I'm not sure how much Oregon Trail actually CUT the lead during the ASV) about that. No one mentioned it dying during the dead hours-- though it was a pretty obvious thing to figure in hindsight.

ANYWAY. Not worth talking about anymore. Ninja Gaiden dominates the day of this I am certain!
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/8/2009 9:59:44 PM | message detail

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted: 4/9/2009 12:29:22 AM | #247
If there's one thing I'm good at in these contests, it's judging general trends.


Can't deny this at all.
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Lucid Faia | Posted 4/8/2009 10:00:19 PM | message detail
Yeah, I'm not seeing Duck Hunt doing well during daylight hours. Ninja Gaiden has this.

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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/8/2009 10:00:30 PM | message detail

From: M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted: 4/9/2009 12:59:18 AM | #355
Votals between two games in 4-ways are already small enough when they're mid-carders or whatever. We're talking two fodderific games where the bottom three don't even make up a third of the total votes. 1000 vote leads is going to be ****ing impossible when the available votes are this low.

A 500 vote lead between DH/NG would probably equate to a 3000 or 4000 vote lead in a traditional 1v1 match. Too lazy to do any actual computations.


I always just guesstimate and triple the gap. Beats doing actual math.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/8/2009 10:00:32 PM | message detail
EPIC DUCK HUNT CUT
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/8/2009 10:00:37 PM | message detail
Hey Ulti *BIRD SLAMS INTO YOUR HEAD AND YOU FALL IN A PIT*
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creativename | Posted 4/8/2009 10:00:45 PM | message detail
And OK, just so I don't get accused (j'accuse!) of "making things up", I actually decided to bother to find the post (which I really shouldn't have to)

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/detail.php?board=8&topic=48959810&message=536506782

But whatever, I was only mad for a second :)
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WarThaHedgehog | Posted 4/8/2009 10:00:47 PM | message detail
DUCK HUNT CUT

Suck it, Ninja Power Hour.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/8/2009 10:00:57 PM | message detail

From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 4/9/2009 1:00:19 AM | #358
Yeah, I'm not seeing Duck Hunt doing well during daylight hours. Ninja Gaiden has this.


Did the DK comeback never happen or something?
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 4/8/2009 10:01:01 PM | message detail
Hayabusa Power Hour over I told you people.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/8/2009 10:01:07 PM | message detail
Power Hour is...over?

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Silverflash-x | Posted 4/8/2009 10:01:13 PM | message detail
I went with SMB > DH here, though I'm slightly regretting my pick. I didn't think the same-cartridge SFF was going to hurt it very much, but I can't deny the draw NG has in the day.

Here's hoping Ducky pulls it out though.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/8/2009 10:01:36 PM | message detail

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted: 4/9/2009 1:00:37 AM | #361
Hey Ulti *BIRD SLAMS INTO YOUR HEAD AND YOU FALL IN A PIT*


I wish I could right about now, to be honest. I don't handle being in pain very well.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/8/2009 10:01:50 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #364
Did the DK comeback never happen or something?


DK is a failure at day. Hayabusa has proven day and especially ASV strength. While its not the Xbox strength we're gonna see, it shouldnt just roll over and die.
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ff6man | Posted 4/8/2009 10:01:52 PM | message detail
Duck Hunt...Cut? o_O Whatever I ain't complaining. I will however hope it's not a one time fluke.
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BGE Contest Score: 8/8 Today: Mario 1 > Duck Hunt
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/8/2009 10:02:14 PM | message detail
Duck Hunt cutting 1 vote ~ Duck Hunt cutting 500 votes in 1v1!
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Lopen | Posted 4/8/2009 10:02:32 PM | message detail
Right, yeah. But that post was right. Oregon Trail DID have a good ASV. It lost because of OTHER REASONS. And I don't believe anyone brought up the "other countries vote too" factor too much yesterday but correct me if I'm wrong.
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FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/8/2009 10:02:57 PM | message detail
NG will probably respond with a 25 vote increase. That's how these things work.
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/8/2009 10:03:24 PM | message detail
Sweet, SMB's up to 91.02% on Galaga.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/8/2009 10:03:34 PM | message detail
NG will probably respond with a 25 vote increase. That's how these things work.

I'm guessing 17 vote increase, but yeah, he's right.

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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/8/2009 10:04:15 PM | message detail
...And lost in all this is that SMB has hit 67%.

Good show, Mario.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/8/2009 10:05:30 PM | message detail
19, close enough!
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ff6man | Posted 4/8/2009 10:05:45 PM | message detail
19 vote jump, good call ulti. <_<
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BGE Contest Score: 8/8 Today: Mario 1 > Duck Hunt
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/8/2009 10:05:54 PM | message detail
Holy **** 19 vote gain, 50-vote barrier broken!

Also WTF huge SMB gain!
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/8/2009 10:06:18 PM | message detail
that was a 70% update for Mario
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Lucid Faia | Posted 4/8/2009 10:06:20 PM | message detail
Did the DK comeback never happen or something?

Sure, it happened. It's just not relevant five years later in a four-way format, especially considering SMB's presence. Ninja Gaiden wins by thousands.

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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/8/2009 10:06:29 PM | message detail
...50 vote barrier?

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WarThaHedgehog | Posted 4/8/2009 10:06:44 PM | message detail
Clearly the night vote is going to Mario!
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/8/2009 10:07:38 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #382
...50 vote barrier?


50 votes is significant considering the non-SMB votals we're working with!
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deadeyedllv | Posted 4/8/2009 10:07:53 PM | message detail
Out of curiosity, what has been the biggest comeback in a four-way match?
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creativename | Posted 4/8/2009 10:08:29 PM | message detail
No one mentioned it dying during the dead hours-- though it was a pretty obvious thing to figure in hindsight.

Well yeah, that's a large part of why I disagreed - I said that OT would do well during the extended power hour time, and bad after. That Punch-Out's trends were harder to forecast beforehand than OT's were.

ANYWAY. Not worth talking about anymore. Ninja Gaiden dominates the day of this I am certain!

I'm with Red Sox here - I don't think the XBox games will help it's day vote all that much.

Though I think Gaiden is a slight favorite for 2nd. My thoughts haven't really changed much since even before the start of the match though, match is pretty close.


I always just guesstimate and triple the gap. Beats doing actual math.

Actually that's about the same thing I do, triple the gap.

The math is pretty easy though - 50/50 vs. say 13% here, so 50/13 is just under 4. So quadruple I think (assuming equal total votes for the match), unless my logic is flawed .
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/8/2009 10:09:00 PM | message detail
Out of curiosity, what has been the biggest comeback in a four-way match?

Sandbag coming back 2100 votes against Magus, I think.
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Best Game Ever Contest II: Score: 4/8
Bracket: Super Mario Bros. > Duck Hunt --- Vote: Duck Hunt
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/8/2009 10:09:08 PM | message detail
that was a 70% update for Mario

He's had 2 previous 70% updates and that wasn't even his best one. His best one came in at the 0:40 mark with 70.77%.
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Calintares | Posted 4/8/2009 10:09:38 PM | message detail
Once again: Oregon Trail received a grand total of 938 votes from the part of the world that is "not North America" And when that part makes up 20%, you have a big problem.

It is unfortunately impossible to use 2008 geolocational stats to say anything coherent about Ruy Harabusa/Ninja Gaiden in Europe as he was the benefactor of being grouped with Zero.
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Silverflash-x | Posted 4/8/2009 10:10:47 PM | message detail
...and another close of the gap.
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/8/2009 10:11:22 PM | message detail
As riveting as it is to watch Duck Hunt and Ninja Gaiden have epic vote wars that lead to cuts/gains that sometimes even reach the double digits, I think I'll retire.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/8/2009 10:11:23 PM | message detail
Yeah...Ninja Gaiden really needs to step it up. From now until 3 is its best chance to build a lead, considering how badly votals drop in the dead hours.

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transience | Posted 4/8/2009 10:12:17 PM | message detail
on the contrary, 3-6 is probably NG's best time. that morning vote should be very nice to Duck Hunt though.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/8/2009 10:12:19 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #392
Yeah...Ninja Gaiden really needs to step it up. From now until 3 is its best chance to build a lead, considering how badly votals drop in the dead hours.


then get it up to a 2k vote lead over the asv aww yea
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creativename | Posted 4/8/2009 10:12:54 PM | message detail
And I don't believe anyone brought up the "other countries vote too" factor too much yesterday but correct me if I'm wrong.

It was widely discussed actually. That OT would only have strength in North America, because no one outside the US and maybe Canada had heard of it. Only reason people knew of it was cause American kids played it in school.


....And lost in all this is that SMB has hit 67%.

Hey, I think SMBeast is doing terrific.

And you're right - SMB's performance here is by far the most important thing in the match. Because SMB's strength is *very* important for chain reactions - beyond just this division.

It's going to affect the paths of LoZ, SMB3, and FF4. I think SMB is one of the most important entrants in the contest.
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deadeyedllv | Posted 4/8/2009 10:13:13 PM | message detail
Sandbag coming back 2100 votes against Magus, I think.

Thanks. But that probably had some what of a joke character snowball effect. What is the next highest comeback (or the highest in a non-joke four way)?
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/8/2009 10:13:33 PM | message detail
3-6 is NG's best time relatively, but you'd be lucky to see NG and DH getting 60 combined votes each update. Any gains made during that time are going to be minute.

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red sox 777 | Posted 4/8/2009 10:14:42 PM | message detail
Well, the second highest also involves a Chrono Trigger character, and it was Axel coming back 1900 votes against Frog. Unlike Magus, Frog succeeded as always at making his own countercomeback in the last hour.
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Best Game Ever Contest II: Score: 4/8
Bracket: Super Mario Bros. > Duck Hunt --- Vote: Duck Hunt
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/8/2009 10:15:34 PM | message detail
duck hunt is comin' alive!
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WarThaHedgehog | Posted 4/8/2009 10:15:51 PM | message detail
Oh god.

BEAST Hunt
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