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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 668

M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/8/2009 9:41:58 PM | message detail

From: MyWorldIsCrono | #292
stupid fun club actually


Don't know why I screwed that up.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 4/8/2009 9:42:09 PM | message detail
Ryu Hayabusa Power Hour is almost over, this is done !
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/8/2009 9:42:31 PM | message detail
A couple thousand?

Seriously?

When each game is getting 13% of the votes? Ninja Gaiden will have a lead of SEVERAL THOUSAND

You people are hurting my brain.

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JixHedgehog | Posted 4/8/2009 9:42:33 PM | message detail
Why isn't my name listed with people with 8 points? *sob*
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/8/2009 9:42:35 PM | message detail
Once we get out of the power hour, I expect constant 20 vote gains for NG
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/8/2009 9:42:38 PM | message detail
My point is that for your analogy to make any sense, Galaga would have to be much weaker than SI, and Ninja Gaiden would be closer to it.
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/8/2009 9:43:01 PM | message detail
1000 will be nothing for NG. It is going to rip Duck Hunt apart in Europe methinks. Europeans aren't as obsessed with guns as Americans, and Duck Hunt wasn't packaged with SMB1 there IIRC. That in addition to Hayabusa dominating the Europe vote means NG will have a couple thousand by the ASV.

Considering that Ninja Gaiden will only have a few thousand votes by morning I find this hard to believe.
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BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB > NG Points: 6/8
Calintares | Posted 4/8/2009 9:43:40 PM | message detail
In North America MM2 got 34,97%. Pac-Man got 24,81%. Pong got 14,44% and Oregon Trail got 25,78%
In South America MM2 got 48,96%. Pac-Man got 31,19%. Pong got 17,85% and Oregon Trail got 1,99%
In Europe MM2 got 32,46%. Pac-Man got 37,51% Pong got 26,56% and Oregon Trail got 3,46%
In Asia MM2 got 38,85% Pac-Man got 36,03% Pong got 17,82% and Oregon Trail got 7,30%
In Oceania MM2 got 24,37%. Pac-Man got 40,51% Pong got 30,32% and Oregon Trail got 4,80%
In Africa MM2 got 36,17% Pac-Man got 36,17% Pong got 19,15% and Oregon Trail got 8,51%

In overall votals, North America contributed 80,00% of the votes, South America 2,05% Europe 13,00% Asia 2,59% Oceania 2,28% and Africa 0,08%


Also, SMB/DH was a pack-in in Europe!
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/8/2009 9:43:56 PM | message detail
Or to put this into perspective, DH went from 3200 down to 100 down on DK the game, and a year later, Master Chief went from 2000 down to 1500 up on DK the character. If DK the game and character have similar day votes, then DH's performance is more impressive because it is much harder to come back when you start off down that much more. Now that assumption should be false, but it's not like the NES Ninja Gaiden will have much of a day vote.
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Bracket: Super Mario Bros. > Duck Hunt --- Vote: Duck Hunt
creativename | Posted 4/8/2009 9:44:38 PM | message detail
Oregon Trail won the day vote. Punch-Out broke even. I don't think I even said that but I'm not seeing your point here.

What are you talking about?

Last night I said I liked Punch-Out's odds at the time a lot better than OT's because OT was much more likely to fall off, and I was absolutely right. Punch-Out only dropped a couple points from that point, OT collapsed - which wasn't surprising at all.

As for my point, I was just poking a little fun at your track record, that's all :o)

Major underestimation of Mega Man 2. I don't blame you after yesterday, but I'm still not thinking Mega Man 2 just rolls over and dies. Game actually has fans, and it definitely had the toughest match yet. ... not by much, mind you.

I really don't think it's an underestimation at all.

MM2 will just roll over and die. SMB and Legend of Zelda? It's going to get mauled. Everyone whose played MM2 has played both those games, and respects them a ton more. It'll get generation SFFed by two games that are VASTLY stronger than it.


ff6man
I really do see Duck Hunt coming back and winning this unless Ninja Gaiden can amass at least a 1000 vote lead by morning.

Heh...at these percentages, a 1000 vote lead would be a mortal lock. These games aren't strong enough to swing much.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/8/2009 9:44:53 PM | message detail
Now that assumption should be false, but it's not like the NES Ninja Gaiden will have much of a day vote.

Why not? Are you saying kids will recognize a game that hasn't had a new version for over 20 years over a new popular series?
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/8/2009 9:45:26 PM | message detail
Why not? X-Box Ninja Gaiden has a fantastic day vote, and I'm sure most of the people voting for NG now are fans of the new games as well.
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SonicRaptor | Posted 4/8/2009 9:46:22 PM | message detail

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #312
Why not? X-Box Ninja Gaiden has a fantastic day vote, and I'm sure most of the people voting for NG now are fans of the new games as well.


Indeed, ever since the XBox game I'm sure the classic Ninja Gaiden games have gotten more light on them.

Plus, the old-school ones have had VC releases.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/8/2009 9:46:28 PM | message detail
Ewww, I suddenly feel so dirty
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/8/2009 9:46:42 PM | message detail
Why not? X-Box Ninja Gaiden has a fantastic day vote, and I'm sure most of the people voting for NG now are fans of the new games as well.

If fans of the Xbox NG games were voting now, Ninja Gaiden wouldn't be have 13% and be nearly losing to Duck Hunt.

You people are SORELY overestimating what that's going to do for NG.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/8/2009 9:46:48 PM | message detail
Without a doubt, Ninja Gaiden has the biggest game of the 3 lesser titles here for when it comes to younger generation, aka asv.
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ff6man | Posted 4/8/2009 9:46:51 PM | message detail
Heh...at these percentages, a 1000 vote lead would be a mortal lock. These games aren't strong enough to swing much.

Exactly my point.
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BGE Contest Score: 8/8 Today: Mario 1 > Duck Hunt
SonicRaptor | Posted 4/8/2009 9:47:22 PM | message detail

From: creativename | #310
Heh...at these percentages, a 1000 vote lead would be a mortal lock. These games aren't strong enough to swing much.


Indeed, they are fighting over SMB's scraps at this point.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/8/2009 9:47:22 PM | message detail
5, 12, 19, 26 - Ninja Gaiden likes those 7 vote gains.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 4/8/2009 9:47:31 PM | message detail
Yeah, DH/NG are only going to have about 5000 votes by 7 AM. A thousand vote lead would mean NG has 60% on DH, and there's no way the latter comes back from that.
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Lopen | Posted 4/8/2009 9:47:38 PM | message detail
Last night I said I liked Punch-Out's odds at the time a lot better than OT's because OT was much more likely to fall off, and I was absolutely right. Punch-Out only dropped a couple points from that point, OT collapsed - which wasn't surprising at all.

It had nothing to do with the day vote, though. It had to do with the dead hours when foreign countries dominated the poll.

Honestly I'm not even sure what the heck you're talking about anyway. Go find the post or I'm just going to assume you're randomly making things up. And really, there's no reason to need to make things up to prove my lack of track record. Heck, we have sigs for that.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/8/2009 9:47:57 PM | message detail
We all know Ryu Hayabusa's love of "27" as well.
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BGE2 - Today: SMB > NG - Points: 6/8 Vote: SMB
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/8/2009 9:48:38 PM | message detail
It's hilarious how normally we'd see epic several-thousand vote swings like DK/DH, but in this scenario it'll be replaced by a 700 vote swing or so.

It'd be epic vote-swings if SMB wasn't doubling all three games combined, essentially.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/8/2009 9:48:51 PM | message detail
OT had like 3% in Europe compared to 34% for Pac Man. Thats the reason of its collapse.
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/8/2009 9:49:34 PM | message detail
I'm saying that it's highly unreasonable to expect any NES game to have a good day vote, and that obviously includes Ninja Gaiden. Duck Hunt, however, for whatever reason, has a proven track record with the day vote. I'm not expecting it to be at its 2004 levels with the ASV, but when it still holds the all-time record for biggest deficit from which someone has legitimately come back (well, almost come back)....it's really hard to see why you'd expect Ninja Gaiden to have a better day vote. It needs a lead overnight and in the morning, and it will get one....I don't know how large or if it will be large enough.
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Best Game Ever Contest II: Score: 4/8
Bracket: Super Mario Bros. > Duck Hunt --- Vote: Duck Hunt
ZFS | Posted 4/8/2009 9:50:00 PM | message detail
Quick end the match now and we may get a good result!

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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/8/2009 9:50:52 PM | message detail
Ninja Gaiden's about to break the 30-vote barrier!
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/8/2009 9:50:52 PM | message detail
Woah Ninja Gaiden is TEARING UP THE JOINT

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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/8/2009 9:50:57 PM | message detail
A proven track record?

It beat Donkey Kong in the day. Frog could beat Donkey Kong in the day. Kefka could beat Donkey Kong in the day.

See where I'm going with this?
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/8/2009 9:51:39 PM | message detail
and that obviously includes Ninja Gaiden. Duck Hunt, however, for whatever reason, has a proven track record with the day vote.

And Ryu Hayabusa had a great day vote as well. And how do we know NES Ninja Gaidens don't have a good day vote? Do we have stats of previous goty polls and such of 2D ninja gaidens not doing well during the day or are people just making things up?
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WarThaHedgehog | Posted 4/8/2009 9:52:57 PM | message detail
Ok guys.

Suppose going into the ASV Monkey Island has a 200 vote lead on SimCity and Tecmo Super Bowl. Mario 3 has 75% of the vote.

Who you got getting second? Do you take the football game that'll surely do better in the US than in Europe, the game more people have played (plus, you know, Sim), or do you trust Guybrush's ASV power?
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creativename | Posted 4/8/2009 9:53:15 PM | message detail
RPGuy with the numbers :)


It had nothing to do with the day vote, though. It had to do with the dead hours when foreign countries dominated the poll.

You said at like 1am or something that you liked OT chances at the point better than was Punch-Out's were at that point the day before, and I disagreed - I thought OT was a lot more likely to fall off that Punch-Out.

Not about the day vote, but trends. I was just joking around about your recent track record on trends. Not trying to offend.

Honestly I'm not even sure what the heck you're talking about anyway. Go find the post or I'm just going to assume you're randomly making things up. And really, there's no reason to need to make things up to prove my lack of track record. Heck, we have sigs for that.

OK dude, seriously. Come on now. What the hell is this?
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/8/2009 9:53:21 PM | message detail
A liberal estimate for Ninja Gaiden would be 10 votes per 5 minutes. That's a 700 vote lead or so by 7, maybe more if DH bombs overnight. So that's what, 56-44% in Ninja Gaiden's favor? Could be close, but NG probably needs to hit 1000 before it feels safe.
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/8/2009 9:53:59 PM | message detail
I can all but guarantee you that Frog and Kefka would not beat Donkey Kong at the ASV. Yes, Frog would probably impress us by giving ground very slowly during the ASV and then pulling off a miracle comeback in the final 2 hours because there's no way Frog can lose a close match to DK, but neither of them would beat DK at the ASV. And if you think DK's day vote is that bad- just how awful is that of Tetris?
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Bracket: Super Mario Bros. > Duck Hunt --- Vote: Duck Hunt
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/8/2009 9:54:02 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #333
A liberal estimate for Ninja Gaiden would be 10 votes per 5 minutes. That's a 700 vote lead or so by 7, maybe more if DH bombs overnight. So that's what, 56-44% in Ninja Gaiden's favor? Could be close, but NG probably needs to hit 1000 before it feels safe.


Not to mention it could start doing better once we get out of the power hour, too.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/8/2009 9:54:12 PM | message detail
A proven track record?

It beat Donkey Kong in the day. Frog could beat Donkey Kong in the day. Kefka could beat Donkey Kong in the day.

See where I'm going with this?


Hey, Sonic just swung a ton of votes against Crono!

Obviously this means Sonic has no day vote strength whatsoever.

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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/8/2009 9:54:18 PM | message detail
And if my thinking's correct, Duck Hunt's "comeback" was a result of it just having a really REALLY crappy morning vote. The fact that it went even with Ninja Gaiden during the Power Hour definitely does not bode well, and NG is going to tear up the joint as the night goes on. I fully expect the lead to be over 1000 when I wake up. Over 2000 by the time the ASV hits
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RPGuy96 | Posted 4/8/2009 9:54:30 PM | message detail
Guybrush's ASV power?

Strangest thing that's ever been said in this topic.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3247&region=EUR

Monkey Island could take the lead in the night, though!
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/8/2009 9:54:31 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #333
A liberal estimate for Ninja Gaiden would be 10 votes per 5 minutes. That's a 700 vote lead or so by 7, maybe more if DH bombs overnight. So that's what, 56-44% in Ninja Gaiden's favor? Could be close, but NG probably needs to hit 1000 before it feels safe.


That's a lot to ask for considering it took 45 minutes just for Ninja Gaiden to even reach 1000 votes.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/8/2009 9:54:46 PM | message detail

From: MarioSuperstar | Posted: 4/9/2009 12:47:57 AM | #322
We all know Ryu Hayabusa's love of "27" as well.


It would be hilarious if the final margin was 27 votes again.
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Lucid Faia | Posted 4/8/2009 9:55:38 PM | message detail
12/12

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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/8/2009 9:55:42 PM | message detail
Hence "liberal estimate". Just as a wild guess, I think Ninja Gaiden will have a lead around 600 come morning.
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WarThaHedgehog | Posted 4/8/2009 9:56:20 PM | message detail
There's a 12 vote update!

Ninja Gaiden burying Ulti's liberal estimate.
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creativename | Posted 4/8/2009 9:57:13 PM | message detail
It would be hilarious if the final margin was 27 votes again.

This needs to happen!
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/8/2009 9:57:34 PM | message detail
This is probably a really stupid question, but how well did Ryu H typically do during the day? I vaguely remember him coming back on Jill around lunch time (twice), but it's been a long time and the memory is sketchy when you're old <_<
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/8/2009 9:57:37 PM | message detail
You also have to remember, SMB will probably drop off overnight too, so some of those votes will be going to NG. I think Ryu can keep this pace up overnight, the lead will be over 1000 by 8, mark my words.
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deadeyedllv | Posted 4/8/2009 9:58:03 PM | message detail
Power hour is ending. Buh-bye Duck Hunt.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/8/2009 9:58:06 PM | message detail
Ryu H has a decent day vote. Nothing spectacular, but not too shabby.

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RPGuy96 | Posted 4/8/2009 9:58:08 PM | message detail
In the dead zone, NG's going to be pulling in ~10 votes/5 minutes total.

(Maybe lot that low, more like 15-20, but still).
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ZFS | Posted 4/8/2009 9:58:22 PM | message detail
Unless Ninja Gaiden really goes crazy here, I'd expect Duck Hunt to come back during the day. I wouldn't have much faith in it doing much during the day, but I guess we'll see. I've got NG, so here's to hoping!

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