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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 668

Lopen | Posted 4/8/2009 9:19:27 PM | message detail
Hayabusa usually has a pretty terrible board vote, and The Dog's best time was the board vote

Just sayin this match is over that's all I'm sayin
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So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.
SonicRaptor | Posted 4/8/2009 9:19:30 PM | message detail

From: MyWorldIsCrono | #190
hey remember when people weer thinknig galaga wasnt total crap


It always was considered a weak contest entry given how Tetris killed it in 2004.
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/8/2009 9:19:56 PM | message detail
I don't see how its over for Ninja Gaiden at ALL. The fact that its still that close after the board vote for DH makes me feel good about it
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/8/2009 9:20:51 PM | message detail
Looks like the percentages are stabilizing.

Except, you know, for Ninja Gaiden cutting Duck Hunt's lead and all.
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Lopen | Posted 4/8/2009 9:20:55 PM | message detail
Yeah. Over in favor of Ninja Gaiden. Do you do context Albion?
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So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.
Janus5000 | Posted 4/8/2009 9:20:58 PM | message detail
remember how Zelda got 95% and 87% in its first two rounds?

It's not like LoZ turned out to be a slouch or anything. I don't think anyone suddenly imagines SMB to be some powerhouse because of this, but I could almost see it giving LoZ a fight now. At least until tomorrow.
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deadeyedllv | Posted 4/8/2009 9:20:58 PM | message detail
Duck Hunt losing steam already.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/8/2009 9:21:09 PM | message detail
lol Mario is wearing off. 70% seems like the highest it could possibly go at this point.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: SMB > NG - Points: 6/8 Vote: SMB
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/8/2009 9:21:11 PM | message detail
Oh man 15 votes time to bail Ninja Gaiden so wins now.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Devil May Cry
ffmasterjose | Posted 4/8/2009 9:21:21 PM | message detail
Yeaaaah Gaiden closed the gap down to 23.
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6/8 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Super Mario Bros. > Ninja Gaiden | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
charmander6000 | Posted 4/8/2009 9:21:21 PM | message detail
Ninja Gaiden is going to take the lead soon. Good because it's going to need a huge lead if it's going to survive the day vote against DH.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB > NG Points: 6/8
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/8/2009 9:21:24 PM | message detail
Ninja Gaiden is going to dominate from 1am to 8 am, then again in the DSV. How much is important because Duck Hunt probably takes the ASV, though not as badly as it did in 2004 given NG's casual appeal.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/8/2009 9:21:48 PM | message detail
Yep, Ninja Gaiden is making a comeback here, especially with a 16 vote cut.
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Lopen | Posted 4/8/2009 9:22:02 PM | message detail
BOLD PREDICTION: Ninja Gaiden wins the day vote. See ya later, Duck Hunt.
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So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/8/2009 9:22:18 PM | message detail
What's the highest percentage win we've seen in a 4-way?
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/8/2009 9:22:23 PM | message detail
Anybody think Duck Hunt's trends can actually be affected with Mario there?

How many trends honestly change in SFF matches?
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: SMB > NG - Points: 6/8 Vote: SMB
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/8/2009 9:22:43 PM | message detail
Feeling pretty good about Duck Hunt here.

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
charmander6000 | Posted 4/8/2009 9:22:45 PM | message detail
hey remember when people weer thinknig galaga wasnt total crap

I thought DH would get SFF harder...
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB > NG Points: 6/8
RPGuy96 | Posted 4/8/2009 9:22:55 PM | message detail
Link with 70.5% with Bidoof/Agent J/Edgeworth. No one else has even come close to that.
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/8/2009 9:23:11 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
greatone10 | Posted 4/8/2009 9:23:17 PM | message detail
Gaiden has to dominate the Europe vote at least, and so far that's made a huge difference in every match.
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Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09.
vs. Super Mario RPG, Goldeneye, Resident Evil 2. Ugh, my top 3 games in the same match.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/8/2009 9:23:44 PM | message detail
I think Duck Hunt's trends will be affected by Donkey Kong not being there. You won't have a polarizing day/night vote like that match did. NG is going to shoot up over night and slow down in the day. DH will probably take some cuts, but it won't be 3000 votes.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/8/2009 9:23:50 PM | message detail
something people should realize about Ninja Gaiden. If we go by Ryu H's trends at all, he has a bad power hour. So to call it over now is foolhardy
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Lopen | Posted 4/8/2009 9:24:14 PM | message detail
You people are underestimating the power of franchise voting. This is why Ninja Gaiden will win the day vote. This is also why DK beat Punch-Out despite being a terrible game. I'm sure a good 30% of the site is like "8-Bit no thanks"
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So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.
SonicRaptor | Posted 4/8/2009 9:24:39 PM | message detail

From: Janus5000 | #206
remember how Zelda got 95% and 87% in its first two rounds?

It's not like LoZ turned out to be a slouch or anything. I don't think anyone suddenly imagines SMB to be some powerhouse because of this, but I could almost see it giving LoZ a fight now. At least until tomorrow.


Yeah, the only thing we are taking from this is SMB1 has quite a lot of fight and strength in it. Everyone here is paying attention to see what might happen come it's inevitable match with SMB3. Before it was believed SMB3 would SFF SMB1, but if SMB3 kills in it's 1st round match they could be on equal ground.

Especially scary for FF4, it's advancement to the Elite 8 hinges on one of the SMB games being SFFd enough for it to edge foward.
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/8/2009 9:25:04 PM | message detail

From: RPGuy96 | #219
Link with 70.5% with Bidoof/Agent J/Edgeworth. No one else has even come close to that.


Christ, Link scored over 94% on Agent J. Ouch.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/8/2009 9:25:13 PM | message detail
Once again for reference: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3262&region=EUR
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
creativename | Posted 4/8/2009 9:25:24 PM | message detail
SMBeast going to push for 70%. SMB3 should match or exceed this.

I have SMB>LoZ in my bracket, and I didn't just take it as an upset pick - I really expected that. Like I kept saying, SMB is just a monster, and I don't think it's far off from SMB3 in terms of strength. This division's still very up in the air, but I still feel good about SMB>LoZ.

Poor Duck Hunt getting cartridge SFFed to absolute oblivion here. It'll go down overnight, but it might repeat it's DK performance with a comeback in the day.

Vote totals should be higher on this match. A popular game like SMB should be able to draw in votes, much like how Link can do the same thing.

I was going to say the same exact thing. SMB is obviously by far the strongest game we've seen yet, it'll get the most votes so far.

When you have a 128 game generation based bracket, you get a lot of uber-weak packs like we've seen so far. The newer generations will do a lot better in terms of votes.
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Save_Us.RAT
BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/8/2009 9:25:25 PM | message detail
Ninja Gaiden will take a lead, but it needs at least 500 votes to weather the storm (it would be more, but neither game will be making any big swings thanks to SMB vacuuming up all the votes)

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
red sox 777 | Posted 4/8/2009 9:25:28 PM | message detail
Don't think SMB will hurt Duck Hunt's day vote. Remember Mario 3 lost it handily to Zelda 1 and did nothing with it against Chrono Trigger. Now, the poll start time shifting to midnight eastern, that will hurt Duck Hunt's day vote, but it should still be strong enough to win the ASV.
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Best Game Ever Contest II: Score: 4/8
Bracket: Super Mario Bros. > Duck Hunt --- Vote: Duck Hunt
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 4/8/2009 9:25:34 PM | message detail
Give it up Lopen, you can Ed need to get back to the drawing board with your crazy upsets !
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Majin Lou | Posted 4/8/2009 9:25:41 PM | message detail
Gaiden's coming for ya, Duck Hunt!
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greatone10 | Posted 4/8/2009 9:26:19 PM | message detail
I think the Europe vote is pretty much like Canadian wrestling fans. Completely bass ackward in every possible manner.
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Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09.
vs. Super Mario RPG, Goldeneye, Resident Evil 2. Ugh, my top 3 games in the same match.
Lopen | Posted 4/8/2009 9:26:40 PM | message detail
I also don't think this godlike percentage is to be read into at all. Beating down chumps doesn't make you a champ. I know you people are going to scream "damage control" or some such but I still wouldn't be surprised if Mega Man 2 could stay kinda close to SMB in R3 despite getting 30% less.
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So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/8/2009 9:26:51 PM | message detail
if you guys think kids will vote against a ninja you crazy
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greatone10 | Posted 4/8/2009 9:27:02 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | Posted: 4/8/2009 9:25:28 PM | #230
Don't think SMB will hurt Duck Hunt's day vote. Remember Mario 3 lost it handily to Zelda 1 and did nothing with it against Chrono Trigger. Now, the poll start time shifting to midnight eastern, that will hurt Duck Hunt's day vote, but it should still be strong enough to win the ASV.


Chrono Trigger seemed to have a much stronger day vote in 04. I blame the poll placement of the site back then.
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Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09.
vs. Super Mario RPG, Goldeneye, Resident Evil 2. Ugh, my top 3 games in the same match.
shadow8021 | Posted 4/8/2009 9:27:05 PM | message detail
Children, avert your eyes! This is a massacre of epic proportions!
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RPGuy96 | Posted 4/8/2009 9:27:35 PM | message detail
Don't think SMB will hurt Duck Hunt's day vote. Remember Mario 3 lost it handily to Zelda 1 and did nothing with it against Chrono Trigger.

Remember also that Mario lost the day vote to Crono that year. Twas a looong time ago.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/8/2009 9:27:37 PM | message detail
All wrestling fans are "bass ackwards" so that's not saying much.

lol half-naked men soap opera
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
WarThaHedgehog | Posted 4/8/2009 9:27:55 PM | message detail
Europe needs to do a lot to make up for falling on their faces these last two matches.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/8/2009 9:28:03 PM | message detail
Man you guys can come up with any crazy day vote theories you want, I'll stick with the game that achieved the biggest vote swing in contest history until proven otherwise.

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
greatone10 | Posted 4/8/2009 9:28:17 PM | message detail

From: Lopen | Posted: 4/8/2009 9:26:40 PM | #234
I also don't think this godlike percentage is to be read into at all. Beating down chumps doesn't make you a champ.


Good point. This is like Solid Snake beating up three Tanners. It just remains to be seen if SMB is playing the role of Snake 04 or Snake 08.
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Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09.
vs. Super Mario RPG, Goldeneye, Resident Evil 2. Ugh, my top 3 games in the same match.
creativename | Posted 4/8/2009 9:28:46 PM | message detail
BOLD PREDICTION: Ninja Gaiden wins the day vote. See ya later, Duck Hunt.

Yeah well, didn't you think Oregon Trail would have a better day vote than Punch-Out? XD

Gaiden won't get slaughtered like DK, but I'd give Duck Hunt a slight day vote edge.

Given the low percentages here though, these "swings" are gonna be pretty sad in terms of gross votes.
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Save_Us.RAT
BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/8/2009 9:28:47 PM | message detail
That swing could have easily been Donkey Kong sucking but we'll find out soon.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: SMB > NG - Points: 6/8 Vote: SMB
red sox 777 | Posted 4/8/2009 9:28:52 PM | message detail
That's true, Chrono Trigger's day vote in 2004 was perhaps average or a bit worse. But the point stands that there's no reason to expect SMB to dominate the day vote. Just look at Tetris, for another example.
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Best Game Ever Contest II: Score: 4/8
Bracket: Super Mario Bros. > Duck Hunt --- Vote: Duck Hunt
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/8/2009 9:29:17 PM | message detail
I don't know, I think Europe has some great taste myself.

Especially the UK with their Fallout 3 GotY decision.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/8/2009 9:29:22 PM | message detail
If there's one thing I'm good at in these contests, it's judging general trends. DH is going to be buried by the time the ASV hits and it won't be swinging 3000 votes against a Ninja Gaiden.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
SonicRaptor | Posted 4/8/2009 9:29:28 PM | message detail
Yeah, I'm not saying SMB1 is a heavyweight that'll pound everything in it's division. I'm just saying that it could very well split the vote with SMB3 based on what we're seeing.
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/8/2009 9:30:13 PM | message detail
I don't know how many swings can really happen here, given Mario is going to suck up all the votes. Still, Ninja Gaiden will need a substantial lead to hold Duck Hunt off during the day.
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.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.
Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Devil May Cry
Majin Lou | Posted 4/8/2009 9:30:22 PM | message detail
Come on Gaiden, take the lead next update.
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All hail FastFalcon, until next time!
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