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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 668

trannyscience | Posted 4/8/2009 7:26:18 PM | message detail
I picked Zelda over Mario just because we'd have Duck Hunt and then Mega Man 2 (whoops), two games that are closer to Mario than Zelda. I also just trust Zelda over Mario in general.
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xyzzy
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/8/2009 7:26:28 PM | message detail
are people actually giving duck hunt a chance to not be SFF'd into oblivion since everyone who played Duck hunt only played it cuz of the 2 for one cartridge

if duck hunt advances here, its only cuz of how freaking weak ninja gaiden is, nothing more
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Dilated Chemist | Posted 4/8/2009 7:27:47 PM | message detail
Go ninja. Go ninja. GO!

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[ FINAL FOUR ]
FFVII / Super Mario Bros. 3 / LoZ: Ocarina of Time / Metal Gear Solid
greatone10 | Posted 4/8/2009 7:27:55 PM | message detail
I wonder if Europe's going to play a factor in all of this. I think some one said the Double Pack is only an American thing, and the Europe vote is 2 for 2 in deciding matches so far.
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Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09.
vs. Super Mario RPG, Goldeneye, Resident Evil 2. Ugh, my top 3 games in the same match.
Lucid Faia | Posted 4/8/2009 7:31:13 PM | message detail
Pac-Man leads Oregon Trail by over 7000 votes. I'm doubting that OT won NA.

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HaRRicH | Posted 4/8/2009 7:37:01 PM | message detail
I think OT will be nipping at Pac-Man's toes in NA and barely beats it in the US (perhaps it's close to MM2, too), but Pac-Man kills him everywhere else. It's hard for me to see Oregon Trail ousting Pong outside of those, much less Pac-Man.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
XxSoulxX | Posted 4/8/2009 7:49:32 PM | message detail
are people actually giving duck hunt a chance to not be SFF'd into oblivion since everyone who played Duck hunt only played it cuz of the 2 for one cartridge

if duck hunt advances here, its only cuz of how freaking weak ninja gaiden is, nothing more


How many people played Ninja Gaiden and not SMB?
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/8/2009 7:50:32 PM | message detail

From: Lucid Faia | #055
Pac-Man leads Oregon Trail by over 7000 votes. I'm doubting that OT won NA.


Why?
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/8/2009 7:55:05 PM | message detail
Galaga is being overlooked. I won't be surprised if it wins.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/8/2009 7:56:44 PM | message detail
Galaga is about as irrelevent as it gets these days.

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trannyscience | Posted 4/8/2009 7:57:16 PM | message detail
so is Pong and hey, it's doing pretty good.
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XxSoulxX | Posted 4/8/2009 7:57:19 PM | message detail
I would be. Galaga is really an arcade game that is dead in the water these days.
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/8/2009 7:57:22 PM | message detail
Match III: Duck Hunt vs. Galaga vs. Ninja Gaiden vs. Super Mario Bros.

Information:

Name: Duck Hunt
Year: 1985
System: NES
2004 Performance: 49.93% against Donkey Kong

Name: Galaga
Year: 1981
System: Arcade
2004 Performance: 21.75% against Tetris

Name: Ninja Gaiden
Year: 1988
System: NES
2004 Performance: Did not enter

Name: Super Mario Bros.
Year: 1985
System: NES
2004 Performance: Did not enter

Analysis

Well here’s an interesting match separate them and it’s pretty easy to figure out which is stronger individually, but when you throw them together anything is possible. Like today’s match we have a snub from last contest’s bracket, two very popular games back in the day and a game that was popular back then, but became forgotten during the years, except it has been brought back to life three generations later.

The only sure thing about this match is that SMB will win and win big. SMB, while it may have decent strength these three opponents is going to cause it to have one of the highest percent of the contest where the only game I see getting a higher percent is oddly enough SMB3. SMB was snubbed from the previous contest due to the ridiculous rule that only one game per series is allowed in each division ultimately causing Majora’s Mask and FFVIII to miss the contest as well. For its contest debut anything less than 60% will be considered a disappointment.

As for second place now that’s more of a debate, all three games have a chance at placing, some with better chances than others. Duck Hunt picked probably the worst match to be in the entire contest. We all know about SFF, but Duck Hunt and SMB are in the same cartridge and even if the voter didn’t own the game SMB is much widely known more than Duck Hunt and while Duck Hunt was fun to play it was more of a novelty game like Wii Sports is today and would show Tetris and Pac-Man like patterns. We could be in store for the worst SFF since Link vs. Ganondorf. Had Duck Hunt received a different opponent I wouldn’t hesitate taking in second especially after its performance against DK in 2004 and in turn DK’s performance in the first match. However even with SMB in the poll I’m hesitant of forgetting about Duck Hunt because the quality of opponents is really that bad.

Overall Ninja Gaiden is the weakest game in this match, but with SMB stealing all the votes from its competitors it too has a chance. Ninja Gaiden is the true odd ball of this match and with its series being revived for the Xbox and 360 Ninja Gaiden has a pool of voters that it can access that the other games don’t have. What’s stopping Ninja Gaiden from being the favourite is past multi-game polls. I know using non-contest polls is a terrible idea, but when Ninja Gaiden does terrible in every single one of them that is a warning sign for things to come, however despite this Ninja Gaiden being the oddball will work and considering SMB will be taking most of the percent you don’t need much to win here.
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 4/8/2009 7:57:23 PM | message detail
Possi-bly
Possi-bly not



Will people still RAGE over The Dog and The Birds?
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/8/2009 7:57:27 PM | message detail
Galaga isn't even what I'd call one of the main classic arcade games. Astroids would own it imo
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/8/2009 7:57:34 PM | message detail
Galaga is the forgotten game in this poll, but even this game has a realistic chance of coming in second. First in the previous contest Galaga was double SFF by Tetris who was later SFF by LoZ, Duck Hunt also suffered from SFF when DK lost to LoZ. When comparing the eight-pack Galaga isn’t that far off from Duck Hunt despite being double SFF. Using SFF matches as a comparison is a terrible idea since degree of SFF can differ, but what I was trying to say is while Duck Hunt would defeat Galaga it wouldn’t be a crushing win. With SMB in the poll it is agreed that Duck Hunt would suffer much more SFF than Galaga and if it’s enough Galaga could pull ahead. Of course for Galaga to place second it would require Ninja Gaiden to fall flat on its face which can very easily happen.

There you have it probably the second biggest blowout of this contest and three games fighting for scraps to enter the second round. Second place may be the weakest game in the second round, though time will tell. While Ninja Gaiden has never shown much strength it doesn’t really need much to place and being the most different game helps a lot.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Super Mario Bros. > Ninja Gaiden

charmander6000’s Prediction: Super Mario Bros. – 64.27%, Ninja Gaiden – 13.07%, Galaga – 11.53%, Duck Hunt – 11.13%

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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MM2 > Pac-Man Points: 2/4
Vergil Sparda | Posted 4/8/2009 7:58:45 PM | message detail
Casually calling every match debatable sure makes you look smart when it happens, and when it wasn't debatable at all you can just sweep it under the rug.
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/8/2009 8:00:25 PM | message detail
I can easily see Oregon Trail being Tanner-level weak outside of North America. If say, it pulls in 5% outside NA (22% of the vote), then it would need 26% inside NA to compensate to get the percentage it is getting. Considering that Pac-Man very very likely beat Megaman 2 in Europe (at no point in time in the poll is North America irrelevant, so the fact that Pac-Man equaled MM2 for a couple of hours indicates that it likely won in Europe handily), then if you believe OT was fodderized to Tanner levels there, it's reasonable to think Pac-Man was getting in the vicinity of 40% in Europe, probably less in the other non-North America regions where Megaman is stronger. That would put Pac-Man comfortably below the theorized value of 26% for Oregon Trail in North America.

That's all very possible, or likely even, if it is true that Oregon Trail is absurdly weak outside the United States. It's trends support that (starting off very well, completely collapsing in the dead zone, winning the ASV). There were some conflicting reports earlier about whether the game was released in Canada; either way I doubt it's doing nearly as well there as in the US, so I expect it should have Pac-Man beat fairly easily in the US.
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Best Game Ever Contest II: Score: 2/4
Bracket: Megaman 2 > Oregon Trail --- Vote: Oregon Trail
Calintares | Posted 4/8/2009 8:02:12 PM | message detail
"I think some one said the Double Pack is only an American thing, and the Europe vote is 2 for 2 in deciding matches so far."

I live in Europe and I still own my Super Mario Bros/Duck Hunt Cartridge :-D

Also, the first match would have had the exact same finishers even if no one from Europe had voted in it, and the same probably goes for today.
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/8/2009 8:06:08 PM | message detail
Don't forget that Duck Hunt's on the same level as Donkey Kong. The same Donkey Kong that was nearly quadrupled by Tetris.

After seeing the crew picks pretty even between NG and DH, I'm now worried Galaga will get second.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/8/2009 8:07:40 PM | message detail
Pfft, we all know Arkanoid is the best arcade game.
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/8/2009 8:08:17 PM | message detail
Space Invaders 4 Life
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Lucid Faia | Posted 4/8/2009 8:10:45 PM | message detail
Sinistar should have made the bracket.

BEWARE, I LIVE

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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/8/2009 8:19:23 PM | message detail
Mario to break at least 75% tomorrow!

Not happening. Even Link struggled to barely break 70% on a very weak fourpack consisting of a joke character and 2 pieces of fodder. SMB, we know will be weaker than Link and the 3 remaining games should be stronger overall than what Link had to face.
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Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/8/2009 8:23:45 PM | message detail
Mario 3 however...
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Lopen | Posted 4/8/2009 8:26:01 PM | message detail
Link, as good as he is, doesn't have the universal appeal potential that SMB has over these schmoes. Basically no one hasn't played SMB in this match that has played one of the others. The potential for a 70%+ blowout is high.
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So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/8/2009 8:49:33 PM | message detail
Round 1 - Division 1: Match 3

Duck Hunt


CLANG. CLANG.
CLANG. CLANG.

Galaga

A true classic, with no Tetris here it should do fantastically!

Ninja Gaiden

Did the cutscenes in this game ever blow anybody else's mind back in the day?

Super Mario Bros.

I take back what I said about Galaga

Analysis:

Not much to say here. Mario should win comfortably, but how well it does is going to be judged by everyone to scope it's chances of taking down Zelda. It obviously has nothing to worry about here.

Once again, another pointless debate for second place with Board 8ers looking for an upset where no upset exists, though of the first 3 matches, this is the one I feel least comfortable about.

Let's first write of Galaga because of it's horrendous performance against Tetris in '04.

Next we have Duck Hunt, a game that went down to the wire with Donkey Kong before DK got the crap beat out of it. I think DK beating Punchout being a Guru upset really clouded people's minds on this match as well because they percieve it as DK strength rather than Punchout weakness, and Tetris' score in that match is more than enough proof of that.

And finally we have Ninja Gaiden, a fantastic game that recently had the series rebooted on the X-Box which was very successful. Every intangible is in NG's favour here.

TuRtLe's Prediction: Super Mario Bros. 54%, Ninja Gaiden 20%, Duck Hunt 17%, Galaga 8%
TuRtLe's Bracket: SMB > Ninja Gaiden
TuRtLe's Vote: Ninja Gaiden
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/8/2009 8:52:22 PM | message detail
Given Mega Man's terrible prediction percentages, how low will MM2 score here? 50%?
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Lopen | Posted 4/8/2009 8:57:32 PM | message detail
Hell yes Ninja Gaiden cutscene props you rock TuRTlE
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So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.
charmander6000 | Posted 4/8/2009 8:58:10 PM | message detail
So does SMB get the board vote or will the board try to make their votes worth something by voting for the other three games?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MM2 > Pac-Man Points: 2/4
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/8/2009 8:59:01 PM | message detail
Duck Hunt gets the board vote methinks, NG overnight and SMB with the day
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/8/2009 8:59:01 PM | message detail
I'm voting Mario because it's my favorite game among the four. Screw bracket voting.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/8/2009 8:59:04 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #080
So does SMB get the board vote or will the board try to make their votes worth something by voting for the other three games?


Well b8 is smarter about the contest in general so I bet most votes will go to duck hunt even though they are mario fans
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/8/2009 8:59:24 PM | message detail
SMB loses the board vote big-time like every character who scored a large blowout in the last character battle and like Tetris did.
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Best Game Ever Contest II: Score: 2/4
Bracket: Megaman 2 > Oregon Trail --- Vote: Oregon Trail
Lopen | Posted 4/8/2009 8:59:40 PM | message detail
Board vote:

SMB - really weak, rises all match
Duck Hunt - really strong, drops all match
Ninja Gaiden - slightly stronger than usual, drops afterwards
Galaga - who cares
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So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.
Master Moltar | Posted 4/8/2009 9:00:14 PM | message detail
Duck Hunt 33.33%

3
Galaga 0%

0
Ninja Gaiden 11.11%

1
Super Mario Bros. 55.56%

5
TOTAL VOTES 9

galaughga
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Moltar Status: let's go
DH/Galaga/NH/SMB - Bracket: SMB > DH - Vote: SMB (6/8)
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/8/2009 9:00:35 PM | message detail
duck hunt doing well so far
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trannyscience | Posted 4/8/2009 9:00:40 PM | message detail
Mario's gonna rise to heaven here. 70% I don't think so, but 60's not out of the question.
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xyzzy
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/8/2009 9:01:00 PM | message detail
Holy **** SMB

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Childproof | Posted 4/8/2009 9:01:07 PM | message detail
gogo go Duck Hunt so I remain on the leaderbaord
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Is GrapefruitKing
Today's prediction: Mario BORS. 58.33% - Duck Hunt 16.70% - Ninja Gaiden 15.64% - Galaga 9.33% - Status:
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/8/2009 9:01:09 PM | message detail
Holy hell SMB

Watch out Zelda
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/8/2009 9:01:11 PM | message detail
Duck Hunt 22.94% 25
Galaga 7.34% 8
Ninja Gaiden 17.43% 19
Super Mario Bros. 52.29% 57
TOTAL VOTES 109

Let's go Duck Hunt!
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Best Game Ever Contest II: Score: 4/8
Bracket: Super Mario Bros. > Duck Hunt --- Vote: Duck Hunt
charmander6000 | Posted 4/8/2009 9:01:22 PM | message detail
Nice start for SMB.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB > NG Points: 6/8
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/8/2009 9:01:23 PM | message detail
Mario for 60% at least here
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trannyscience | Posted 4/8/2009 9:01:38 PM | message detail
whoa it's already there

uhhh Mega Man 2 this ain't
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xyzzy
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/8/2009 9:01:43 PM | message detail
We'll soon see if this is board vote or legitimacy.
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creativename | Posted 4/8/2009 9:01:45 PM | message detail
cartridge SFF, arcade SFF, Nintendo SFF

when does it stop?


In a generation based bracket...it doesn't.
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Dilated Chemist | Posted 4/8/2009 9:01:50 PM | message detail
I'm surprised at all the hate Galaga is getting here.

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[ FINAL FOUR ]
FFVII / Super Mario Bros. 3 / LoZ: Ocarina of Time / Metal Gear Solid
ZFS | Posted 4/8/2009 9:01:51 PM | message detail
What a terrible division this

C'mon SMB1 time for 70%

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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/8/2009 9:01:54 PM | message detail
Why do the votes seem to be really slow
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