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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 667

ZFS | Posted 4/8/2009 8:29:32 AM | message detail
Whoa, Mega Man 2 sucking hard here.

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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/8/2009 8:30:22 AM | message detail
This result makes no sense. Unless Pac-Man actually has some strength and comfortably kick's DK's ass next round.

We still don't know that Tetris won't completely fold against stronger competition. Will be interesting to see Europe's vote's next round though.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/8/2009 8:31:10 AM | message detail
That said, short of SMB1 failing to break 45% tomorrow, looks like MM2 getting out of this division is dead in the water.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
The Mana Sword | Posted 4/8/2009 8:31:33 AM | message detail
This result makes perfect sense.

Mega Man games suck in a contest setting.

Time to take the blinders off.
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Kleenex...at work!
charmander6000 | Posted 4/8/2009 8:32:18 AM | message detail
One on one it's to be expected that Pac-Man kicks DK's ass, but with Tetris...
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MM2 > Pac-Man Points: 2/4
ZFS | Posted 4/8/2009 8:32:34 AM | message detail
So who else is ready for some FFIV/MM3 in round 2

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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/8/2009 8:33:07 AM | message detail
And Mega Man 3 isn't looking so hot either. FF4 could make it out of that match and potentially have a really deep run with SMB3/Zelda SFF in the quarters.

Augh
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/8/2009 8:36:20 AM | message detail

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #197
I think any "pictures don't matter" arguments died with Samus/Tifa, and anybody who still believes that garbage despite all the overwhelming evidence (Snake performing completely different with a sprite, Lettuce Kefka etc.) just look like ignorant fools now.


Nobody is saying pictures don't matter. I'm saying that in this situation, it isn't as big of a factor as people are making it.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/8/2009 8:37:36 AM | message detail

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #207
And Mega Man 3 isn't looking so hot either. FF4 could make it out of that match and potentially have a really deep run with SMB3/Zelda SFF in the quarters.

Augh


You were just realizing that it was unlikely MM3 would get out of there?

Wow you really were blinded.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/8/2009 8:39:49 AM | message detail
Well, with the 2 weakest Final Fantasies in this half of the bracket splitting, it wouldn't take much to advance there. I can't see FF or FF4 being worth much. Hell, even with today's performance I would take MM2 to advance there, but MM3 is probably a lot weaker than MM2 for obvious reasons.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/8/2009 8:40:42 AM | message detail
Links Awakening > Megaman X all but confirmed
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Lopen | Posted 4/8/2009 8:42:51 AM | message detail
I let the picture guide my vote if I'm not a hardcore fan of any of the entrants. Today, I love me some Mega Man 2 but you'd better believe I would've voted Oregon Trail if it were say... any other Mega Man game that isn't 3. Wait, we're not on that topic anymore are we.
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So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/8/2009 8:44:02 AM | message detail
I'm not willing to call Tetris > MM2 a lock just yet, even considering this stinkbomb. Things are looking very bleak for MM3, though. Even if the two Final Fantasies split right down the middle, Mario World is going to smash it.
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Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
MnMZero | Posted 4/8/2009 8:44:14 AM | message detail
Links Awakening > Megaman X all but confirmed

What? Don't go throwing MMX into the same boat as MM2 sucking it up today? Does MM2 kick ass and have Zero? I don't think so.
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MMX is doomed. :( Proud Supporter of Zero
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/8/2009 8:44:19 AM | message detail
BT, but you forgot SMW beating MM to death. Even MM2 wouldn't get past FFIV. It wouldn't bomb this hard.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
ZFS | Posted 4/8/2009 8:45:38 AM | message detail
FF1 and FFIV would both beat MM2/3 with no problem in a 'neutral' match. It's a bit tricky when they're splitting with each other, but fortunately, there's a Mario World in the way for Mega Man.

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http://i44.tinypic.com/sficrr.jpg
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/8/2009 8:46:26 AM | message detail
"Links Awakening > Megaman X all but confirmed

What? Don't go throwing MMX into the same boat as MM2 sucking it up today? Does MM2 kick ass and have Zero? I don't think so.
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MMX is doomed. :( Proud Supporter of Zero "

lol wut
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/8/2009 8:47:46 AM | message detail
Using 2004 Pong Tetris is expected to beat MM2 58.6%-41.4%.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MM2 > Pac-Man Points: 2/4
Lopen | Posted 4/8/2009 8:48:03 AM | message detail
And yeah, I'm still fairly confident in MM2 > Tetris even with this trash quality performance. Especially considering the pic-- I don't exaggerate when I say I think Mega Man could do 10% better with something that isn't THIS thing. (Not damage control, ask Moltar, I dropped my AC prediction 9% after seeing that abomination)

It's MM3 > FF4 (both rounds augh) and MM2 > SMB that I'm not feeling too peppy on.
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So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.
plasmabeam | Posted 4/8/2009 8:48:41 AM | message detail
Links Awakening > Megaman X all but confirmed

Never doubted it from the day the bracket came out. There is no reason for the the most popular non-Pokemon handheld game of the 90's to lose to one of the numerous Mega Man games. Don't people realize that Zelda clobbered MMX in the Series Contest 80-20? Entire series, yes, but the idea still holds.

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~Jacksonville Jaguars~
MnMZero | Posted 4/8/2009 8:48:55 AM | message detail
I'm not willing to call Tetris > MM2 a lock just yet, even considering this stinkbomb. Things are looking very bleak for MM3, though. Even if the two Final Fantasies split right down the middle, Mario World is going to smash it.

This... and I seriously doubt the two FF games will split it even. It's not like FFII/IV isn't popular, especially after the many remakes/re-releases it's gotten. That ought to be a one-sided SFF. And any leeching of total votes from the FF fanbase will be countered by SMW absolutely drubbing MM3.
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Proud Supporter of Zero
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/8/2009 8:49:40 AM | message detail
I've been a longtime supporter of the "MMX > any other MM game" theory, but it's still up against one of the stronger Zelda games (can we agree that it's in the top half of the series in strength? JEEZ GUYS). Really, the one argument I can see being made in MMX's favor is console vs. handheld. Between the two million+ releases, I think Link's Awakening even sold more.

This upset pick still confuses me. >_>
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/8/2009 8:51:30 AM | message detail
I took MMX the same reason I took Earthbound.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
Lopen | Posted 4/8/2009 8:52:17 AM | message detail
And at least Mega Man 2 isn't hovering around 33% anymore. Anyone think he can hit 36%? 37%? Salvage it, Megs!
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So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.
MnMZero | Posted 4/8/2009 8:52:33 AM | message detail
Never doubted it from the day the bracket came out. There is no reason for the the most popular non-Pokemon handheld game of the 90's to lose to one of the numerous Mega Man games. Don't people realize that Zelda clobbered MMX in the Series Contest 80-20? Entire series, yes, but the idea still holds.

The only thing is that this isn't a one-on-one match (FFVI yo). But yeah, I took MMX out of fanboyism, although I've stated my ZELDAFEAR from the beginning in my short bracket pick topic.
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Proud Supporter of Zero
swirIdude | Posted 4/8/2009 8:52:40 AM | message detail
Vergil/Immodium Ghaleon

The Ghaleon fanboyism is so strong here. If Ghaleon was worth a damn he could have beaten Vergil with any pic. There is nothing to suggest this pic actually took away from Ghaleon's strength noticeably.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/8/2009 8:55:18 AM | message detail
Haven't caught up reading, so if these have been covered, forgive me.

Interesting to see that Punch-Out won in North America. I have expected that. I didn't expect Space Invaders taking second place in the UK. That's interesting.

And I'm not sure why people are talking about Mega Man laying a dud here without considering the possibility that Sonic may do the same. Mega Man as a character and Sonic as a character are obviously more appealing than their individual games, for whatever the reason, and I think the same holds true for the series. Maybe Mario World/Sonic 2 wasn't an SFF beatdown after all...?

Honestly, I'm wishing I had Mortal Kombat II in round 3 at this point, not Sonic 2 or MMX. Still worried about Link's Awakening though.
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Vergil Sparda | Posted 4/8/2009 8:55:53 AM | message detail
If anything it caused him to overperform, getting the joke vote.

If you want to talk about Vergil matches and pictures, talk about Sephiroth/Vergil. I suspect Vergil underperformed at minimum 30% there because of the picture.
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My sincerest apology, brother. I was so eager to see you and couldn't concentrate on the preparation of the bash.
MnMZero | Posted 4/8/2009 9:00:19 AM | message detail
Sonic games have always been more popular than Mega Man games though. I don't have Sonic games doing too much, but I have Sonic 2 beating MMX. I don't think MK2 is beating either.
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Proud Supporter of Zero
charmander6000 | Posted 4/8/2009 9:00:53 AM | message detail
I'm writing my analysis down and the more I think about it the more I think Galaga will win.

If Galaga was SFF by Tetris which in turn was SFF by LoZ that could cancel out the amount DK was SFF by LoZ. Also SMB will probably SFF DH more than Galaga. If Ninja Gaiden is really weak I can see Galaga taking second.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MM2 > Pac-Man Points: 2/4
Vergil Sparda | Posted 4/8/2009 9:01:15 AM | message detail
It's interesting to note that Pac-Man is nearly doubling Pong (and probably will be by the time the day is over), when Tetris could only triple it. Perhaps Pac-Man isn't as weak as we thought and Metroid just got SFFed that bad.

I'd feel really bad about Contra > Metroid if LoZ wasn't in the match to SFF it AGAIN.
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My sincerest apology, brother. I was so eager to see you and couldn't concentrate on the preparation of the bash.
Vergil Sparda | Posted 4/8/2009 9:02:09 AM | message detail
Is there any reason to think Galaga will be significantly stronger than Space Invaders? I've always thought of them as basically the same game.
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My sincerest apology, brother. I was so eager to see you and couldn't concentrate on the preparation of the bash.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/8/2009 9:02:56 AM | message detail
Galaga is WEAK. There is no reason to think its any sronger then Ninja Gaiden would be. If Ninja Gaiden doesn't get second, Duck Hunt does.
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ImplicitContent | Posted 4/8/2009 9:06:31 AM | message detail
I don't think the pic factor is really such a big deal with games. I mean if there's 4 games to choose from you usually have a favorite of some sort for whatever reason. With games I feel like people are just a lot more apathetic towards characters that a bunch of random factors are more likely to come into play such as bandwagoning and picture voting. I seriously doubt it's changing many peoples minds if any, and this is coming from who has always been a fierce supporter of pictures mattering in character battles.

As for FF4 you best believe it's going to it's kicking some MM ass in round 2. I didn't even realize that was a debated match for this contest. I think it's pretty obvious it's already stronger than MM3 on it's own, then throw in that it should be on the good side of SFF, while MM should be getting it's ass pummeled by Mario, and it seemed pretty simple to me. Obviously it's still remains to be seen but I'd be pretty damn shocked if MM3 won.

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charmander6000 | Posted 4/8/2009 9:08:32 AM | message detail
Is there any reason to think Galaga will be significantly stronger than Space Invaders? I've always thought of them as basically the same game.

Galaga > Space Invaders and if Galaga was SFF by Tetris what's stopping the same thing to happen to SI.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MM2 > Pac-Man Points: 2/4
plasmabeam | Posted 4/8/2009 9:08:55 AM | message detail
I'm still not sold on Tetris > MM2 next round. Consider that MM2 is the only game there with an actual quest, while the other three games are dependent upon repetition of levels and achieving a high score. I think that will make MM2 stand out pretty nicely, and I wouldn't be surprised if Pac-Man hacks away at Tetris's votes.

Expect MM2 and Tetris to duke it out in the low 30%'s, with Pac-Man cracking 20% with ease.

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~Jacksonville Jaguars~
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/8/2009 9:10:07 AM | message detail
Where do you get that Galaga is stronger then Space Invaders?

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3059

Space Invaders seems to be the third most liked arcade game here.
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ImplicitContent | Posted 4/8/2009 9:10:18 AM | message detail
I feel like it's a complete toss up. Tetris is in all likelihood stronger straight up, but the match definitely favors MM2. If I had the ability to change my bracket I'd probably still stick with MM2.

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all hail ec your lord and savior
RPGuy96 | Posted 4/8/2009 9:12:01 AM | message detail
Time | M Man 2 | Pac-Man | Pong | Oregon Trail
01:00 | 33.04% | 25.68% | 15.16% | 26.12%
02:00 | 34.19% | 25.24% | 14.68% | 25.88%
03:00 | 34.99% | 25.64% | 15.34% | 24.03%
04:00 | 35.91% | 25.80% | 16.31% | 21.98%
05:00 | 35.66% | 28.15% | 18.30% | 17.88%
06:00 | 35.31% | 30.73% | 19.32% | 14.64%
07:00 | 34.36% | 32.63% | 20.68% | 12.33%
08:00 | 34.04% | 33.40% | 18.82% | 13.75%
09:00 | 35.20% | 30.34% | 18.33% | 16.13%
10:00 | 35.90% | 28.75% | 16.80% | 18.54%
11:00 | 36.10% | 28.80% | 15.64% | 19.46%
12:00 | 36.77% | 27.88% | 14.33% | 21.02%

Mega Man seems to have recovered a bit, mostly thanks to Pac-Man and Pong being weak with the DSV. If he takes the ASV he could 36% and change, which, though not good by any stretch, is a lot better than the 33% he had last night.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/8/2009 9:13:07 AM | message detail
some wacky trends there
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/8/2009 9:22:07 AM | message detail
Where do you get that Galaga is stronger then Space Invaders?

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3059

Space Invaders seems to be the third most liked arcade game here.


I don't see Galaga in the poll so what makes you think it would be weaker?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MM2 > Pac-Man Points: 2/4
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/8/2009 9:23:06 AM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #241
Where do you get that Galaga is stronger then Space Invaders?

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3059

Space Invaders seems to be the third most liked arcade game here.


I don't see Galaga in the poll so what makes you think it would be weaker?


Because Space Invaders is able to keep up better then the other old arcade games like Frogger and Astroids

Plus, Galaga isn't even one of the first classic arcade games I'd think of when I think of the classics. I can't see it being stronger then Space Invaders.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/8/2009 9:29:58 AM | message detail
I don't get it. How is Mega Man so strong? His series stunk up the joint in the series contest, and MM2 - arguably his strongest game - isn't looking so hot now.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
charmander6000 | Posted 4/8/2009 9:30:44 AM | message detail
Because Space Invaders is able to keep up better then the other old arcade games like Frogger and Astroids

I'd expect Galaga to beat those two games with ease as well.

Plus, Galaga isn't even one of the first classic arcade games I'd think of when I think of the classics.

True, but SI only got 13.9% against Tetris while Galaga got 21.75% back in 2004.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MM2 > Pac-Man Points: 2/4
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/8/2009 9:31:42 AM | message detail
True, but SI only got 13.9% against Tetris while Galaga got 21.75% back in 2004.

This is also a Tetris with renewed strength imo after the whole L Block thing. It seems alot stronger then 2004.
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/8/2009 9:32:41 AM | message detail
I don't get it. How is Mega Man so strong? His series stunk up the joint in the series contest, and MM2 - arguably his strongest game - isn't looking so hot now.

??? the series contest MM came in 7th losing to Zelda, FF, SMB, SSB, Sonic and Metal Gear.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MM2 > Pac-Man Points: 2/4
charmander6000 | Posted 4/8/2009 9:35:22 AM | message detail
This is also a Tetris with renewed strength imo after the whole L Block thing. It seems alot stronger then 2004.

You think 2009 Tetris would double 2004 Tetris? The game can't really get any more popular since its been played by everyone. Also Tetris did about expected against DK, yesterday was more PO and SI failing.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MM2 > Pac-Man Points: 2/4
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/8/2009 9:36:35 AM | message detail
2004 Tetris didn't impress me, and this years Tetris has, so maybe not a doubling, I'd give 2009 Tetris a 60% win over 2004 Tetris.

I mean hell, the 2004 Tetris only got 20% on base link afterall.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/8/2009 9:36:42 AM | message detail
??? the series contest MM came in 7th losing to Zelda, FF, SMB, SSB, Sonic and Metal Gear.

Hmm. I still can't understand Mega Man being so popular, yet what's arguably his strongest game is stinking up the joint now.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/8/2009 9:39:11 AM | message detail
Skies of Arcadia (2004g) VS Tetris (2004g)

Skies of Arcadia has a strength of 20.75.
Tetris has a strength of 20.75.

72,843 total votes cast.


2004 tetris was such a joke
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