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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 667

UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/7/2009 9:38:04 PM | message detail
Tetris > Mega Man 2 CONFIRMED



~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it.

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Devil May Cry
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/7/2009 9:39:22 PM | message detail
I wouldn't say it's confirmed. There's still a chance Mega Man 2 could lose to Pac-Man, Oregon Trail, or God forbid, Donkey Kong.
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The_Doom_Dealer | Posted 4/7/2009 9:39:40 PM | message detail
Wrong choices, etc.

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Put your cards where your mouth is.
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 4/7/2009 10:23:17 PM | message detail
Tag.
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/7/2009 10:28:08 PM | message detail
up
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Devil May Cry
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/7/2009 10:28:09 PM | message detail
Pong is holding up a lot better then I expected.
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creativename | Posted 4/7/2009 10:28:17 PM | message detail
Liking Oregon Trail's chances a lot more than Punch-Out's yesterday.

I actually like it a lot less than Punch-out's chances yesterday at this time :) OT is more likely to fall apart I would think. With Punch-out trends were more speculative. I don't think trends will favor OT here (though, once again, every game will suck with the day vote).
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Save_Us.RAT
BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
SuperAngelo128 | Posted 4/7/2009 10:28:46 PM | message detail
Tetris > Mega Man 2 would be intersting
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Masato_Tanaka | Posted 4/7/2009 10:29:06 PM | message detail
Pac is already starting decent cuts
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/7/2009 10:29:07 PM | message detail
Man, this is crazy.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/7/2009 10:29:31 PM | message detail
Who knows what OTs trends will be though? I think its just all guesswork at this point.
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Applekidjosh | Posted 4/7/2009 10:29:35 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #001
Tetris > Mega Man 2 CONFIRMED


I can only hope!

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Tranquil as a forest, but on fire within. Once you find your center you are sure to win!
Lucid Faia | Posted 4/7/2009 10:30:48 PM | message detail
Man, this is crazy.

Looks rather clear-cut to me. MM2 > Pac, Tetris > MM2.

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2005-2008 Big Ten Champions!
creativename | Posted 4/7/2009 10:33:55 PM | message detail
Who knows what OTs trends will be though? I think its just all guesswork at this point.

Well it's all guess work, but it makes sense that Extended Power Hour (XPH!) voters would favor Oregon Trail. Plus there's non-NA voters.
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Save_Us.RAT
BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/7/2009 10:35:59 PM | message detail
Extended Power Hour (XPH!)

XD, that's a new one that must have been recently invented.


And, Oregon Trail is starting to collapse now. 2 cuts in row for Pac-Man.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 4/7/2009 10:36:49 PM | message detail
Unless OT starts showin some signs of life, Pac is gonna keep chompin away

WAKKA WAKKA WAKKA
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
TheRye | Posted 4/7/2009 10:37:00 PM | message detail
I don't think there's any reason to say that a niche boxing game from 20 years ago will have the same voting trends as a multi-platform educational game that has been played relatively consistently for the past 20 years.
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WarygonZ | Posted 4/7/2009 10:37:12 PM | message detail
*goes hunting*
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/7/2009 10:37:46 PM | message detail
Is Punch Out really niche? I always thought it was one of the more popular NES games
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 4/7/2009 10:38:17 PM | message detail
That's because it is, Mr. n00b Avenger
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
transience | Posted 4/7/2009 10:38:42 PM | message detail
only niche to younger people, I guess - these days the only mainstream old games are ones with active series' behind them (Mario, Zelda)

which explains why Mega Man sucks balls now
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xyzzy
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transience | Posted 4/7/2009 10:39:00 PM | message detail
but it's not niche at all by NES standards, hell it's top 10 in the FAQs
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xyzzy
red sox 777 | Posted 4/7/2009 10:40:09 PM | message detail
Well, it's a NES game that's not Mario or Zelda, which more or less makes it niche nowadays. I am hoping that Oregon Trail has trends similar to Duck Hunt's, although it's true that Duck Hunt's ASV probably won't be anywhere as strong this year now that it gets a strong American voting period at the beginning of the poll.
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Best Game Ever Contest II: Score: 0/0
Bracket: Tetris > Punch-Out --- Vote: Punch-Out
transience | Posted 4/7/2009 10:41:15 PM | message detail
actually, I wonder if the original Metal Gear would beat Mega Man 2 even though no sane person would actually think this
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xyzzy
MetricTrout | Posted 4/7/2009 10:41:36 PM | message detail
So, assuming Pac-Man makes it,

Tetris
Donkey Kong
Mega Man 2
Pac-Man

Being the only console game could make Mega Man 2 stand out. Add a good match pic and maybe...

Nah, who am I kidding? Mega Man 2 is done.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/7/2009 10:42:45 PM | message detail

From: transience | #024
actually, I wonder if the original Metal Gear would beat Mega Man 2 even though no sane person would actually think this


seeing how weak it is, I don't think its so dumb to think it now
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/7/2009 10:45:54 PM | message detail
oregon trail is done, next
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Lucid Faia | Posted 4/7/2009 10:45:59 PM | message detail
Nah, who am I kidding? Mega Man 2 is done.

Nah, MM2 takes second in the next round. DK and Pac-Man will split each other's votes, and MM2 is probably stronger than DK in any case.

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2005-2008 Big Ten Champions!
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/7/2009 10:46:25 PM | message detail

From: transience | Posted: 4/8/2009 1:39:00 AM | #022
but it's not niche at all by NES standards, hell it's top 10 in the FAQs


I have written NES FAQs; the hits are low as hell and mean nothing.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Devil May Cry
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 4/7/2009 10:46:33 PM | message detail
Well at least the safe pick is gonna pay off for me today it seems
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
TheRye | Posted 4/7/2009 10:46:56 PM | message detail
Well, it's a NES game that's not Mario or Zelda, which more or less makes it niche nowadays

I agree with this. I would argue that, today, the only games that are really non-niche from the NES are SMB1-3, LoZ, Duck Hunt, and, to a lesser extent, FF1 and the Mega Man games.
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Gaddswell | Posted 4/7/2009 10:49:09 PM | message detail
Whoa, Oregon Trail's actually in 2nd here.

Did not expect that!
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Hail FastFalcon, our new guru overlord!
Master Moltar | Posted 4/7/2009 10:51:10 PM | message detail
randomly come back and refresh to get a tie

neat
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Moltar Status: let's go
MM2/Pac-Man/Pong/Oregon Trail - Bracket: MM2 > Pac-Man - Vote: Pac-Man (2/4)
WarygonZ | Posted 4/7/2009 10:51:18 PM | message detail
Farewell, sweet prince. It was fun while it lasted. ;_;

here lies oregon trail
damn you europe
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Masato_Tanaka | Posted 4/7/2009 10:51:46 PM | message detail
Oh man, a tie of all things. Cool.

STOP THE MATCH! STOP THE MATCH! BOTH GAMES ADVANCE BAH GAWD

>_>
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/7/2009 10:52:00 PM | message detail
Not in 2nd anymore!
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/7/2009 10:54:10 PM | message detail
That last update was Oregon Trail's worst update, at 21.39%.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
PrinceKaro | Posted 4/7/2009 10:55:28 PM | message detail
Holy crap, this match is intense.

Pac-Man 25.59% 4402
The Oregon Trail 25.59% 4402

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...and this is for MUFFIN!!!!
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 4/7/2009 10:56:05 PM | message detail
and then OT randomly gains lmao
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/7/2009 10:56:27 PM | message detail
Indeed this is insane.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
Lucid Faia | Posted 4/7/2009 10:58:58 PM | message detail
Indeed this is insane.

I can tell you guys are hurting for drama. -_-

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The Ohio State Buckeyes
2005-2008 Big Ten Champions!
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 4/7/2009 10:59:59 PM | message detail
Lucid were just havin some fun!

It's been 5 years since we've seen a Games Contest!
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
Keno316 | Posted 4/7/2009 11:02:11 PM | message detail
18181
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*Claims Kiddy Grade's Eclair & C.C.*
greatone10 | Posted 4/7/2009 11:03:51 PM | message detail
And here I thought this division was going to blow chunks.
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Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09.
vs. Super Mario RPG, Goldeneye, Resident Evil 2. Ugh, my top 3 games in the same match.
WarygonZ | Posted 4/7/2009 11:03:58 PM | message detail
Wow, a complete stall. I hadn't even noticed it updated.
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Is Realo...except not anymore. 'Tis War.
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/7/2009 11:05:06 PM | message detail
Odd, GameFAQs hasn't spit out another update yet and it's been almost 9 minutes since the last update.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/7/2009 11:05:39 PM | message detail
lol luster was tricked since they tied that update
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WarygonZ | Posted 4/7/2009 11:06:02 PM | message detail
Yes they did Luster. Just Oregon Trail/Pac-Man didn't change %.
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Is Realo...except not anymore. 'Tis War.
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 4/7/2009 11:06:04 PM | message detail
And OT shoots up a gain!

Weird trends indeed!
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/7/2009 11:06:49 PM | message detail
Yes they did Luster. Just Oregon Trail/Pac-Man didn't change %.

That was what misled me there.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!