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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 665

MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/7/2009 8:15:07 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Lopen | Posted 4/7/2009 8:16:33 AM | message detail
Also: Punch-Out!! making gains against DK during the power hour bodes well for its ASV, unless it has Mega Man like trends.

Where's the region thing I have to see if the Brazilians are pulling for Tyson!
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/7/2009 8:16:46 AM | message detail
Why? Macs best time in 2007 was the 8-12 PM block. That was DKs worst time against Duck Hunt.

Not saying its probable, but the opportunity is there.
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ffmasterjose | Posted 4/7/2009 8:17:43 AM | message detail
Unfortunately you can't see Geolocation results until the poll is closed.
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0/0 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Tetris > Mike Tyson's Punch-Out!! | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/7/2009 8:18:44 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=2883&type=2&seconds=60&max=0

As you can see, Punch Out fell about the same time Mac did... but it has no where to go except for up from this point.
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Lopen | Posted 4/7/2009 8:19:10 AM | message detail
Oh, and the reason I say it bodes well that the power hour went like that: DK has a massive BRACKETS advantage, and is Nintendo through and through. The power hour has an ASV influence in it so it's possible Mac used that to overpower him.

The Mega Man thing is more likely at this point but... don't give up!
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/7/2009 8:22:13 AM | message detail
PO SHOULD be able to make cuts through the ASV and make a worthwhile comeback attempt in the second ASV

Don't give up on the little guy; he's fought against greater odds then DK and won!
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/7/2009 8:23:28 AM | message detail
UPPERCUT
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/7/2009 8:24:46 AM | message detail
hmm I wonder if rallying at boxing forums would help PO >______>
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/7/2009 8:26:13 AM | message detail
RacistFAQs is proven again!
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Lopen | Posted 4/7/2009 8:26:23 AM | message detail
Ha ha ha ha.

Well it is Mike Tyson. Assuming the boxing community still respects the guy with the ear biting and all that other stuff he's done since his legendary days.
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/7/2009 8:26:54 AM | message detail
Wow, DK has a bigger lead now than I thought he would last night...maybe this can keep up.

PO's still got a chance though...I'd call this pretty 50/50 right now, assuming DK drops some.
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Prototype
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ffmasterjose | Posted 4/7/2009 8:27:28 AM | message detail
aww yeah 3 vote cut >_>
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0/0 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Tetris > Mike Tyson's Punch-Out!! | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
Denzokuken | Posted 4/7/2009 8:28:55 AM | message detail
lol 45 vote gain DK wasn't happy about that
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/7/2009 8:30:09 AM | message detail
103-58 that update, roflcakes.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/7/2009 8:30:54 AM | message detail
bahh I need admin approval for this boxing forum >_>
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ffmasterjose | Posted 4/7/2009 8:31:03 AM | message detail
Damn. what happened in that update? You were doing good with that 3 vote cut Mac
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0/0 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Tetris > Mike Tyson's Punch-Out!! | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
Yesmar | Posted 4/7/2009 8:31:42 AM | message detail
bahh I need admin approval for this boxing forum >_>

Jesus Christ, you have a problem.
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/7/2009 8:32:29 AM | message detail

From: Yesmar | #218
bahh I need admin approval for this boxing forum >_>

Jesus Christ, you have a problem.


???
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ffmasterjose | Posted 4/7/2009 8:34:58 AM | message detail
Mac said **** that and took 8 votes back.
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0/0 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Tetris > Mike Tyson's Punch-Out!! | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
Lopen | Posted 4/7/2009 8:34:59 AM | message detail
Albion's only problem is too much free time, really.
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Big Bob | Posted 4/7/2009 8:36:02 AM | message detail
I swear, this contest revolves around me.

Mac was up about 300 votes last night when I logged off and went to sleep. Since then DK gained the lead and took off with it.

And now that I'm back up and paying attention, Mac's fighting again.
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/7/2009 8:37:24 AM | message detail
???-nothing, you've got a problem.

So...if DK is going this close with PO, Metroid SFF'd/LFF'd by LoZ should give Contra an easy win in afew days. Nice.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/7/2009 8:38:36 AM | message detail
why do i have a problem if i try to get a couple more legit votes
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/7/2009 8:40:26 AM | message detail

From: MyWorldIsCrono | #216
bahh I need admin approval for this boxing forum >_>


Please don't rally boxing forums, or else I'll have to rally Stormfront to support Donkey Kong, and I'm a lazy man. :/
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/7/2009 8:44:37 AM | message detail
c'mon po, its starting to rise
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/7/2009 8:47:24 AM | message detail
DK took the morning and is jobbing with the during school. Typically that means he'll get the ASV, which makes sense. With all these old games, kiddies are going to vote for what's recognizable, which is everything but Punch-Out.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/7/2009 8:49:12 AM | message detail

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #227
DK took the morning and is jobbing with the during school. Typically that means he'll get the ASV, which makes sense. With all these old games, kiddies are going to vote for what's recognizable, which is everything but Punch-Out.


that explains little mac doing better at asv then a mii?
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voltch | Posted 4/7/2009 8:49:36 AM | message detail
A mac pic would have done him good with all the hype the new punch out game's getting though.
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Yesmar | Posted 4/7/2009 8:50:53 AM | message detail
that explains little mac doing better at asv then a mii?

There is no ASV on a Sunday.
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Childproof | Posted 4/7/2009 8:51:16 AM | message detail
Crono would do better in the ASV than a Mii for christ's sakes
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Today's prediction: Tetris 43.59% - Punch-Out 23.87% - Donkey Kong 21.37% - Space Invaders 11.17% - Status: bad
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/7/2009 8:51:22 AM | message detail
Still, mac did better during the day then a Mii which the kids would recognize way more.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/7/2009 8:54:23 AM | message detail
DK started collapsing against Duck Hunt after school, right?
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/7/2009 8:54:38 AM | message detail
lol X-Stats have 2004 Tetris getting close to 60% on 2004 Donkey Kong.

Right now Tetris has nearly 75% on Donkey Kong. Data's too screwy to make good comparisons with, but just something interesting to note.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/7/2009 8:55:51 AM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #233
DK started collapsing against Duck Hunt after school, right?


About 2 o'clock I believe.
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Yesmar | Posted 4/7/2009 8:55:55 AM | message detail
DK started collapsing against Duck Hunt after school, right?

During the day actually. The ASV is when Duck Hunt started coming back in votes, but it was coming back in percentage by much larger numbers earlier.
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/7/2009 8:56:32 AM | message detail
lol X-Stats have 2004 Tetris getting close to 60% on 2004 Donkey Kong.

Right now Tetris has nearly 75% on Donkey Kong. Data's too screwy to make good comparisons with, but just something interesting to note.


x-stats are lying Tetris is expected to beat DK 75/25 so it's doing about expected.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: Tetris > Punch-Out!! Points: 0/0
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/7/2009 8:57:36 AM | message detail
Tetris is behind tons of SFF with Zelda apparently in 2004 so its not very trustworthy

Didn't expect THIS strength though.
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/7/2009 9:00:12 AM | message detail
...........|....DK.....|....PO....|.....SI.....|.Tetris..
01:00 |19.16%|19.83%|07.11%|53.90%
02:00 |18.13%|19.55%|07.16%|55.16%
03:00 |16.93%|20.23%|07.19%|55.65%
04:00 |17.94%|16.97%|08.09%|57.00%
05:00 |16.01%|14.12%|10.20%|59.66%
06:00 |18.86%|13.30%|11.23%|56.61%
07:00 |19.94%|12.70%|10.65%|56.71%
08:00 |19.68%|13.19%|09.55%|57.58%
09:00 |19.87%|16.57%|09.17%|54.29%
10:00 |19.29%|17.72%|09.07%|53.93%
11:00 |20.83%|17.33%|08.85%|53.00%
12:00 |20.34%|17.85%|08.22%|53.59%

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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: Tetris > Punch-Out!! Points: 0/0
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/7/2009 9:00:31 AM | message detail
Hmm.. DK should start collapsing sooner or later, right?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/7/2009 9:00:33 AM | message detail
Who cares about a Mii?

And if Punch-Out has Mega Man trends, looks like it's time to blame Europe for DK winning!
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ffmasterjose | Posted 4/7/2009 9:01:02 AM | message detail
Aren't most kiddies on spring break right now?
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0/0 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Tetris > Mike Tyson's Punch-Out!! | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/7/2009 9:01:25 AM | message detail

From: Fayt_Esteed | #240
Hmm.. DK should start collapsing sooner or later, right?


According to 2004, he should start the collapse in the next hour and get full on collapse mode by 2 pm
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/7/2009 9:03:20 AM | message detail

From: M_e_g_a_6_4 | #234
Right now Tetris has nearly 75% on Donkey Kong. Data's too screwy to make good comparisons with, but just something interesting to note.


That's about right... isn't it?

Disregarding obvious SFF, though.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/7/2009 9:03:22 AM | message detail

From: M_e_g_a_6_4 | #234
lol X-Stats have 2004 Tetris getting close to 60% on 2004 Donkey Kong.

Right now Tetris has nearly 75% on Donkey Kong. Data's too screwy to make good comparisons with, but just something interesting to note.


What X-stats are you looking at? According to 2004 using their match against Legend of Zelda who they both lost to, Tetris would get 74.50% on Donkey Kong

Kind of strangely accurate considering the SFF that would have been in LoZ Vs. Donkey Kong. Tetris SFFed the same amount confirmed? >_>
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/7/2009 9:04:00 AM | message detail

From: ffmasterjose | Posted: 4/7/2009 12:01:02 PM | #242
Aren't most kiddies on spring break right now?


You might actually be right. Don't kids have off this week for Easter?
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/7/2009 9:04:42 AM | message detail
Actually yeah, thats right. Wonder how this will impact the day vote.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/7/2009 9:06:05 AM | message detail
Spring break? In April?
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/7/2009 9:06:34 AM | message detail
Also: Punch-Out!! making gains against DK during the power hour bodes well for its ASV, unless it has Mega Man like trends.

Actually, Megaman does fine with the ASV, and great with the SNV. His first 4 hours are great, but his late night/morning vote is so bad that by the time we get into the DSV, he's already fallen as far as he falls. What Punch-Out needs to avoid here is Chrono Trigger trends, although as of 2008, Crono himself might gain on DK from this point on (Vincent gained 700ish votes on him from 4 AM to 7 AM, and a net total of 200ish over the next 17 hours). There is a large spectrum of American-vote fueled entrants, all of which collapse in the dead zone and early morning, ranging from amazing ASV (Duck Hunt) to awful ASV (Magus)- it's probable that Punch-Out ends up above DK in ASV power.

During the day actually. The ASV is when Duck Hunt started coming back in votes, but it was coming back in percentage by much larger numbers earlier.

Keep in mind the poll started at 3 AM then, so the total number of votes already in was relatively smaller, and the percentage easier to shift. Plus, in that poll basically the entirety of the time from the start up to 12 was a good time for DK, whereas in today's poll, Punch-Out had 4 good hours at the start. That works both ways here- it hurts Punch-Out's expected gains later, but it excuses it for not making percentage gains now.

What is probably most relevant is to look at the hourly percentages DK was putting up during the DSV against Duck Hunt- it was still pretty high, as DK extended its lead by 1200 votes during that time.
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Best Game Ever Contest II: Score: 0/0
Bracket: Tetris > Punch-Out --- Vote: Punch-Out
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/7/2009 9:06:36 AM | message detail
I'm actually starting to regret putting Mario 1 over Zelda 1 twice. We have no idea if Mario 1 is stronger indirectly, and I see Zelda SFFing Mario much more easily than Mario SFFing Zelda.

Or in stats terms, do you really think Mario 1 could get 43% on Mario 3? I know there'd be SFF and all that, but Zelda 1 getting 43% on Mario 3 is no joke.
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