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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 665

red sox 777 | Posted 4/7/2009 5:06:46 AM | message detail
Mike Tyson's Punch-Out by the hour!

1:00 | 50.87%
2:00 | 51.87%
3:00 | 54.44%
4:00 | 48.61%
5:00 | 46.85%
6:00 | 41.35%
7:00 | 38.92%
8:00 | 40.12%

Well, Punch-Out has been pulling some truly atrocious numbers since 5 AM. It needs to stop that fast to stay in this match.
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Best Game Ever Contest II: Score: 0/0
Bracket: Tetris > Punch-Out --- Vote: Punch-Out
Dilated Chemist | Posted 4/7/2009 5:09:25 AM | message detail
Maybe this site is still racist.

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[ FINAL FOUR ]
FFVII / LoZ: A Link to the Past / LoZ: Ocarina of Time / FFX
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/7/2009 5:10:05 AM | message detail
Also, someone explain the Takerface to me. I haven't watched wrestling in years, so...
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
charmander6000 | Posted 4/7/2009 5:12:47 AM | message detail
Also where are those people who acted like you were a complete fool for picking DK despite this being a debatable match.

PO still has all day, but if it keeps dropping like this it's not going to matter.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: Tetris > Punch-Out!! Points: 0/0
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/7/2009 5:13:11 AM | message detail
Who knows. I just think spamming it is unfunny now.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/7/2009 5:13:44 AM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #104
Also where are those people who acted like you were a complete fool for picking DK despite this being a debatable match.


The same hype that made me switch to PO the last minute.

Stupid pressure.
---
*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
Heroic Yuna | Posted 4/7/2009 5:14:03 AM | message detail
"The match was always over. Punch-Out! will bounce around for a bit but it was already gone a minute in. I say this as PO just took the lead again. Donkey Kong has this.

You say that as though PO has anything. What are you counting on, its killer day vote?"

"It's a power hour game. Give it a bit and it will be buried. "

But by all means Ulti and KP go ahead and continue pretending it's impossible to determine probably outcomes by the opening of a match. You're absolutely right - trends don't exist.
greatone10 | Posted 4/7/2009 5:15:32 AM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | Posted: 4/7/2009 5:10:05 AM | #103
Also, someone explain the Takerface to me. I haven't watched wrestling in years, so...


It is the Undertaker's reaction to Shawn Michaels kicking out of a Tombstone at their Wrestlemania match a couple of days ago.
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Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09.
vs. Super Mario RPG, Goldeneye, Resident Evil 2. Ugh, my top 3 games in the same match.
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/7/2009 5:17:47 AM | message detail
But betting on the trends is no fun, and not every match goes by the trends anyway!
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
Dilated Chemist | Posted 4/7/2009 5:18:30 AM | message detail
Looking at 1st Round comebacks, Sandbag gives me hope.

Donkey Kong vs. Magus, 1-on-1?

... GO, GO, GO!

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[ FINAL FOUR ]
FFVII / LoZ: A Link to the Past / LoZ: Ocarina of Time / FFX
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/7/2009 5:20:14 AM | message detail
Magus... I think.
---
*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
red sox 777 | Posted 4/7/2009 5:20:46 AM | message detail
Things look bleak for Punch-Out right now, but fortunately Ngamer has the DK/DH updates saved on his site, so let's remind ourselves of just how badly DK can choke!

At this time (8:15 eastern), DK had 56.19% against Duck Hunt, and a lead of 1697. DK had won every 15-minute update in the match up to this point, and continued for a few more hours, losing its first 15-minute update at 12:30. The lead peaked at 3251 at 1:45, at which time DK's percentage was down to 54.33%. The rest is history- DK won a grand total of 4 15-minute updates the rest of the match, and saw its lead cut by 3100 votes, and was barely saved by time running out.

DK currently has 51.73% on Punch-Out.
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Best Game Ever Contest II: Score: 0/0
Bracket: Tetris > Punch-Out --- Vote: Punch-Out
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/7/2009 5:21:02 AM | message detail
They both did about the same on Sam Fisher, so...

...

...

...

...

...I'll get back to you.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/7/2009 5:22:10 AM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #112
At this time (8:15 eastern), DK had 56.19% against Duck Hunt, and a lead of 1697. DK had won every 15-minute update in the match up to this point


Jesus Christ it's worse than I remembered.
---
*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
Heroic Yuna | Posted 4/7/2009 5:23:47 AM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #109
But betting on the trends is no fun, and not every match goes by the trends anyway!


While true, they do a good part of the time. Isn't analyzing trends one of the main parts of predicting in these contests? Ulti and KP were openly mocking people for trying to determine the probable outcome with the data available to them. This goes against the spirit of the contest and these topics, so I'm naturally compelled to defend against such flawed comments.
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/7/2009 5:24:29 AM | message detail
Aw yeah, Punch-Out stall!

Besides, what trends? We haven't seen more than half of these games in a contest anyway!
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
red sox 777 | Posted 4/7/2009 5:25:52 AM | message detail
Ulti and KP were calling out people for making conclusions based on absolutely tiny amounts of data, not for analyzing the trends.
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Best Game Ever Contest II: Score: 0/0
Bracket: Tetris > Punch-Out --- Vote: Punch-Out
Dilated Chemist | Posted 4/7/2009 5:27:34 AM | message detail
We really need a poll with DK/Magus just to see who is the bigger choker, and add these two into the mix to make it interesting.

Donkey Kong
Magus
Duke Nukem
Revolver Ocelot

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[ FINAL FOUR ]
FFVII / Super Mario Bros. 3/ LoZ: Ocarina of Time / Metal Gear Solid
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/7/2009 5:28:45 AM | message detail
Oh dear, Punch-Out tied with DK there.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/7/2009 5:29:19 AM | message detail
Two stalls is a trend! Comeback time...!
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/7/2009 5:29:27 AM | message detail
how are Duke and Ocelot chokers exactly?

DK and Magus is enough. Maybe Chief for more entertainment.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
Heroic Yuna | Posted 4/7/2009 5:29:57 AM | message detail
PO was clearly going to be better at night than Donkey Kong, while worse when the kiddies wake up. (DK isn't good in the day but PO is worse, this can easily be determined without having seen any of them in a contest setting before)

As such, PO needed to get a strong lead early on. From the very first update - Punch Out's logical best time, it was failing to produce the results needed. Coming to a likely conclusion from these facts is not at all unreasonable.
Dilated Chemist | Posted 4/7/2009 5:31:01 AM | message detail

From: MarioSuperstar | #121
how are Duke and Ocelot chokers exactly?

DK and Magus is enough. Maybe Chief for more entertainment.


Uh, I never labeled Duke & Ocelot as chokers. Why are you putting words in my mouth?

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[ FINAL FOUR ]
FFVII / Super Mario Bros. 3 / LoZ: Ocarina of Time / Metal Gear Solid
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/7/2009 5:32:27 AM | message detail
I just figured you were going to add other chokers to make it "interesting".
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/7/2009 5:33:51 AM | message detail
It's not unreasonable, but at the same time, it's just conjecture.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/7/2009 5:34:43 AM | message detail
If we were going to add other chokers, then we would've gotten Kefka in, and....who else...?
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
greatone10 | Posted 4/7/2009 5:34:52 AM | message detail
If you need another choker, there's a certain piece of cabbage that needs mentioning.
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Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09.
vs. Super Mario RPG, Goldeneye, Resident Evil 2. Ugh, my top 3 games in the same match.
Dilated Chemist | Posted 4/7/2009 5:34:56 AM | message detail
No, I'd imagine they would all be close to each other in strength. Ok, revamp:

Donkey Kong
Magus
Sandbag
Kefka

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[ FINAL FOUR ]
FFVII / Super Mario Bros. 3 / LoZ: Ocarina of Time / Metal Gear Solid
greatone10 | Posted 4/7/2009 5:35:36 AM | message detail
Preferably another Nintendoish entry to balance the double dose of Square.
---
Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09.
vs. Super Mario RPG, Goldeneye, Resident Evil 2. Ugh, my top 3 games in the same match.
Heroic Yuna | Posted 4/7/2009 5:35:47 AM | message detail
...

What is the point of this topic series if not to come up with conjecture? You can't prove anything until the match is already over.

Why make a bracket at all? It's just conjecture.
Dilated Chemist | Posted 4/7/2009 5:36:14 AM | message detail
Sandbag is Nintendo.

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[ FINAL FOUR ]
FFVII / Super Mario Bros. 3 / LoZ: Ocarina of Time / Metal Gear Solid
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/7/2009 5:36:26 AM | message detail
Let's see...

DK
Magus
Kefka
???

Who is known for choking besides those three?
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
red sox 777 | Posted 4/7/2009 5:36:32 AM | message detail
PO was clearly going to be better at night than Donkey Kong, while worse when the kiddies wake up. (DK isn't good in the day but PO is worse, this can easily be determined without having seen any of them in a contest setting before)

As such, PO needed to get a strong lead early on. From the very first update - Punch Out's logical best time, it was failing to produce the results needed. Coming to a likely conclusion from these facts is not at all unreasonable.


Just you wait. DK will show you what he's capable of! So far trends have been as expected (PO doing well early, DK dominating the deep night and morning), and that doesn't mean DK will win the rest of the day vote. Past trends indicate otherwise.
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Best Game Ever Contest II: Score: 0/0
Bracket: Tetris > Punch-Out --- Vote: Punch-Out
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/7/2009 5:36:47 AM | message detail
Heh, Duke barely beat Marth. Ocelot I can see beating DK (somehow).
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/7/2009 5:36:55 AM | message detail
Ness!
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/7/2009 5:37:39 AM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #133
Past trends indicate otherwise.


As far as last contest goes, trends meant jack during the first round. >_> I'm still not counting on anything.

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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
greatone10 | Posted 4/7/2009 5:38:03 AM | message detail
Ness is kind of iffy. I mean, he did beat Jak and not-CJ.
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Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09.
vs. Super Mario RPG, Goldeneye, Resident Evil 2. Ugh, my top 3 games in the same match.
red sox 777 | Posted 4/7/2009 5:38:58 AM | message detail
All the more reason not to call the match in the first 5 minutes, or now. I don't think anyone really has grounds to be very confident in the result of the match at the current time.
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Best Game Ever Contest II: Score: 0/0
Bracket: Tetris > Punch-Out --- Vote: Punch-Out
nintendogirl1 | Posted 4/7/2009 5:47:46 AM | message detail

From: red sox 777
All the more reason not to call the match in the first 5 minutes, or now. I don't think anyone really has grounds to be very confident in the result of the match at the current time.


I'm confident. I predicted Tetris would win this match and I am 100% sure I will be proved right when the match ends.
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You see if I'm not.
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/7/2009 5:53:44 AM | message detail
Hmm...When is DK's chokejob scheduled to start...?
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/7/2009 5:55:27 AM | message detail
That's kinda unknown right now, I think.

Maybe before school.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
The Mana Sword | Posted 4/7/2009 5:56:01 AM | message detail
Punch-Out has this, guys. Don't worry.
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Kleenex...at work!
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/7/2009 5:56:59 AM | message detail
When did DK start losing pretty much every update to Duck Hunt, again?
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
Childproof | Posted 4/7/2009 5:59:25 AM | message detail
well well well... I can't say I expected to see DK leading by more than 500 when I woke up, but we'll see how this goes
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Is GrapefruitKing
Today's prediction: Tetris 43.59% - Punch-Out 23.87% - Donkey Kong 21.37% - Space Invaders 11.17% - Status: bad
nintendogirl1 | Posted 4/7/2009 6:02:06 AM | message detail
So far 13 hours of the new banners and we've had 6 "Do you recognize the letters" topics. I think we'll be seing a few more of them before the end of the contest as well.

Almost enough to make me wish I'd never made the bloody thing.
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Not quite though, I like the bragging.
HotSkitty | Posted 4/7/2009 6:03:40 AM | message detail
Donkey Kong lost updates to Duck Hunt at about 10:30am Eastern.
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Never gonna give you up.
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/7/2009 6:03:56 AM | message detail
DK didn't start bleeding profusely until about noon, if I recall.
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Masato_Tanaka | Posted 4/7/2009 6:05:54 AM | message detail
welp
there goes my bracket
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/7/2009 6:06:17 AM | message detail
Punch-Out!! was leading by 86 votes when the morning vote started. DK managed to swing 600 votes in the last three hours.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/7/2009 6:08:05 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/gentopic.php?board=814

So apparently I was invited to this random board, and the inviter had to have been in this topic since it's the only place I post.

Also, lol punchout

lol karma hunter
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1