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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 665

UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/6/2009 9:28:48 PM | message detail
Contest season means new stat topics are typically made at 300-350 posts. In the words of Stewie Griffin, if you don't like it you can go suck on a railroad spike.


~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it.

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Lunar: SSSC
Justin_Crossing | Posted 4/6/2009 9:29:17 PM | message detail
Donkey Kong had better win.
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/6/2009 9:45:08 PM | message detail
I think Turtle should make the next topic.
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Masato_Tanaka | Posted 4/6/2009 9:53:05 PM | message detail
http://img24.imageshack.us/img24/3230/takerface.gif
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
ff6man | Posted 4/6/2009 10:23:26 PM | message detail
Come on DK, get that day vote and take the lead...
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Rs Name: Igglybuff138 - Skill Total - 1810+ - Combat level 116 - 281/281 Quest Points - BGE Contest Score: 0/0 Today: Tetris > Donkey Kong
Big Bob | Posted 4/6/2009 10:23:42 PM | message detail
http://img.imgcake.com/macdk.png
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Just say the word and it's bear time!
http://backloggery.com/main.php?user=big_bob
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/6/2009 10:23:50 PM | message detail
Pong will score <5% tomorrow.

There, now I can go to sleep.
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WarThaHedgehog | Posted 4/6/2009 10:23:53 PM | message detail
http://img24.imageshack.us/img24/3230/takerface.gif
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/6/2009 10:24:08 PM | message detail
I hope it does.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Lunar: SSSC
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 4/6/2009 10:24:09 PM | message detail
Far as I'm concerned this one's over till the day time. Now I'm just worried about Oregon Trail.
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/6/2009 10:24:41 PM | message detail
Keep choking, DK!
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
WarThaHedgehog | Posted 4/6/2009 10:25:50 PM | message detail
Looks like the Russians woke up!
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/6/2009 10:25:55 PM | message detail
http://www.pbfcomics.com/archive_b/PBF167-Punch_Bout.gif
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Lunar: SSSC
creativename | Posted 4/6/2009 10:26:07 PM | message detail
Hah! Love this takerface :)

Also Mania was excellent this year. I was totally unhyped for it and almost didn't get it but it was damn good.

Punch-Out looking good right now, but the match has a long way to go and who the hell knows what the trends will be when every single game should suck horribly with the day vote.
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Save_Us.RAT
BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/6/2009 10:26:31 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #013
http://www.pbfcomics.com/archive_b/PBF167-Punch_Bout.gif


XFD
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/6/2009 10:26:45 PM | message detail
Well, it is morning in Russia right now.
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Best Game Ever Contest II: Score: 0/0
Bracket: Tetris > Punch-Out --- Vote: Punch-Out
WarThaHedgehog | Posted 4/6/2009 10:27:07 PM | message detail
Clearly games will start losing votes once the sun rises.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/6/2009 10:27:39 PM | message detail
So when exactly does DKs "Good night vote" start, exactly?
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greatone10 | Posted 4/6/2009 10:27:46 PM | message detail
Speaking of Russia, Geolocation should interesting. Lots of Asia votes for Tetris, unless Russia is considered a European country in the system.
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Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09.
vs. Super Mario RPG, Goldeneye, Resident Evil 2. Ugh, my top 3 games in the same match.
red sox 777 | Posted 4/6/2009 10:30:18 PM | message detail
I'd expect DK to slowly improve and hit a peak in the dead zone of 4-6 AM, with Punch-Out also dying during that time. So I do expect DK to retake the lead sometime tonight.....probably not until well into that 4-6 period, by the way things look right now.
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Best Game Ever Contest II: Score: 0/0
Bracket: Tetris > Punch-Out --- Vote: Punch-Out
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/6/2009 10:30:35 PM | message detail

From: M_e_g_a_6_4 | #003
I think Turtle should make the next topic.


Is there any Iron Maiden ASCII?
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/6/2009 10:31:07 PM | message detail
oh snap a DK cut
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Masato_Tanaka | Posted 4/6/2009 10:31:29 PM | message detail
Ouch that was rough
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
WarThaHedgehog | Posted 4/6/2009 10:32:03 PM | message detail
*mashes buttons*
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http://img24.imageshack.us/img24/3230/takerface.gif
Eon_Latias | Posted 4/6/2009 10:32:04 PM | message detail
PUNCH-OUT, PUNCH OUT!

Rah Rah Rah!

Get the day vote...the day vote! Make my bracket perfect, I dont need to worry about Tetris!
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"Easy, easy, dont you wor-ry. E-very thing will be okay...~"
Lurker lv40
Zylo the wolf | Posted 4/6/2009 10:32:11 PM | message detail
I expect that DK will takes the lead once those who are to young to have played any of these games wakes up. I really thought that Punch Out would do better than this.
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. FastFalcon05 > Me
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/6/2009 10:33:05 PM | message detail
It's Punch-Out. Who honestly expect it to do anything? This match came down to who would suck more, and it looks like DK is winning that contest (yet again).
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
Gaddswell | Posted 4/6/2009 10:34:18 PM | message detail
Whoa, it really did start tonight.

Certainly didn't expect to see Tetris at 54%!
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/6/2009 10:35:33 PM | message detail

From: Zylo the wolf | #026
I expect that DK will takes the lead once those who are to young to have played any of these games wakes up. I really thought that Punch Out would do better than this.


remember that great day vote donkey kong had against duck hunt, a game that didnt have a new release for almost 20 years?
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/6/2009 10:36:15 PM | message detail
DK is STORMING back.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Lunar: SSSC
Zylo the wolf | Posted 4/6/2009 10:36:58 PM | message detail
Punch Out is one the most popular Nes games, I really expected it TKO DK is the first 30 minutes and never looks back.

Now I regret that I put Duck Hunt over Ninja Gaiden.
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. FastFalcon05 > Me
Yesmar | Posted 4/6/2009 10:38:46 PM | message detail
remember that great day vote donkey kong had against duck hunt, a game that didnt have a new release for almost 20 years?

Duck Hunt won the poll for the latter half, because the Europeans, who never played Duck Hunt were diluted. Donkey Kong won the Morning vote quite handily actually. 59% of the vote.
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 4/6/2009 10:39:42 PM | message detail
I just remembered about the Top 100 NES games topic that has been running on the NES board for a couple years:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=916386&topic=22905115

4. Mike Tyson's Punch-Out!! ( 1489 )
5. Mega Man 2 ( 1433 )

Probably won't happen. Probably.
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Shall I take you with me? To the place in this town where wishes come true...
red sox 777 | Posted 4/6/2009 10:39:53 PM | message detail
Yeah, DK isn't winning the day vote. Duck Hunt came back 3200 votes against it, with quite low votals too. That is still a record for the farthest something has been down and made a serious comeback, not counting Starcraft's cheating against SSBM.
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Best Game Ever Contest II: Score: 0/0
Bracket: Tetris > Punch-Out --- Vote: Punch-Out
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/6/2009 10:40:53 PM | message detail
and PO took it all back and more in one update lol
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/6/2009 10:41:34 PM | message detail
Now I regret that I put Duck Hunt over Ninja Gaiden.

This doesn't really say anything about that match other than the fact that we might be (hilarious as it sounds) in for FOUR consecutive matches with a powerhouse crushing the percentage while two weaker foes battle to the death for second. I can't even believe this is conceivable.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/6/2009 10:42:28 PM | message detail

From: Team Rocket Elite | #033
I just remembered about the Top 100 NES games topic that has been running on the NES board for a couple years:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=916386&topic=22905115

4. Mike Tyson's Punch-Out!! ( 1489 )
5. Mega Man 2 ( 1433 )

Probably won't happen. Probably.


Holy crap, I remember this. It's been a while...
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 4/6/2009 10:43:02 PM | message detail
L Block will reign supreme agian


in proxy
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/6/2009 11:00:02 PM | message detail
TRE, you are amazing. I can't believe that project is still around.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Lunar: SSSC
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/6/2009 11:00:35 PM | message detail
PO seems safe for now, I guess. Gnight peeps.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Lunar: SSSC
The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/6/2009 11:13:30 PM | message detail
I guess this will follow the pattern of PO getting its night lead, DK comes back in the day, but of course falls short because it's DK
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/6/2009 11:14:01 PM | message detail
Doesn't DK usually start doing well by now?
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Lunar: SSSC
red sox 777 | Posted 4/6/2009 11:15:33 PM | message detail
Give him a few hours. He'll get the lead back before 6 AM; he just won't have much time to build it before doing his inevitable choke job.
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Best Game Ever Contest II: Score: 0/0
Bracket: Tetris > Punch-Out --- Vote: Punch-Out
The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/6/2009 11:16:37 PM | message detail
Why would DK have a better night vote than PO?
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/6/2009 11:17:43 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #042
Doesn't DK usually start doing well by now?


Well theres a nice big cut by DK just as you said that
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/6/2009 11:19:26 PM | message detail
Why would DK have a better night vote than PO?

DK has always peaked in the late night/early morning historically, and Little Mac apparently had Megaman trends last year (meaning an excellent first 4 hours, then collapse as we move into the dead zone).
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Best Game Ever Contest II: Score: 0/0
Bracket: Tetris > Punch-Out --- Vote: Punch-Out
The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/6/2009 11:21:43 PM | message detail
Huh, I had PO pegged as a night vote kind of game. Last 2 updates says otherwise though I guess
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/6/2009 11:22:35 PM | message detail
They're both night vote... just DK should do better in the DEEP night.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/6/2009 11:28:49 PM | message detail
I don't see why PO would have the same trend as Little Mac, but what do I know.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Lunar: SSSC
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/6/2009 11:37:31 PM | message detail
Guru and BOP went pretty strong for Punch-Out!!, though, so I'd wager it's got BRACKETS behind it. And Punch-Out!! does not strike me as a day vote friendly game.

Guru and BOP also heavily went with Altair for second last contest in his round 1 match, but Altair ended up getting first place instead. And the casuals actually owned the Gurus too. Just because the Guru and BOP shows heavy bracket support for one game does not mean it would hold true for the casuals.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!