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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 663

charmander6000 | Posted 4/6/2009 1:27:04 PM | message detail
A recommendation to the crew this year:

Keep it short.


I can tell you now that it's not going to happen. This is the first game contest in five years. Even today I have a long analysis planned though that's because I've been thinking about this match for a week so don't expect the others to be long.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/6/2009 1:27:31 PM | message detail
Oh and to people thinking even DIABLO 2 is stronger then WoW...

Diablo (2006s) VS Warcraft (2006s)

Diablo has a strength of 16.21.
Warcraft has a strength of 20.39.

Warcraft wins with 60.25% of the vote!
A win of 25,916 with 126,419 total votes cast.


No.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/6/2009 1:28:01 PM | message detail
So the contest is starting tonight right

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/6/2009 1:28:15 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #303
So the contest is starting tonight right


yep
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/6/2009 1:28:55 PM | message detail
Arthas did way better with his WoW pic then his WC3 pic, so with the hype of Wrath of the Lich King, it was most likely he got the majority of his support from WoW players.

Hype plays a huge roll and you have no proof that Arthas did any better with any picture.

And Kerrigan IS the entire story of the expansion pack, and a good chunk of the original game, why wouldn't she be as popular as a character from a "lesser" game?

People don't play Starcraft for the story iirc.

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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/6/2009 1:29:04 PM | message detail
yeeees

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red sox 777 | Posted 4/6/2009 1:29:47 PM | message detail
People can like games without liking their characters.

And I honestly think most of Starcraft's votes here come from people who would not call themselves "Blizzard fans," and do not play Starcraft religiously. Liking Chrono Trigger does not make you a Square fan, and liking SSBM does not make you a Nintendo fan. Playing World of Warcraft more or less makes you a Blizzard fan, so it's not accurate to say that WoW beats Starcraft among the hardcore Blizzard fanbase, and therefore it's stronger on Gamefaqs.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/6/2009 1:30:54 PM | message detail
People don't play Starcraft for the story iirc.

Neither do people play WC3 for the story. Its online mode was the most popular part of it.

Hype plays a huge roll and you have no proof that Arthas did any better with any picture.

Its the general consensus. He was WAY weaker in round 2 compared to his competition then round 1, when he had no reason to be. He lost Spy, a PC character who possibly was taking some votes and was against characters that shouldn't of hurt him what so ever, yet he bombed and did worse then he did round 1. Only logical explanation is that WoW players didn't recognize him since he isn't seen without his helmet in WoW.
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/6/2009 1:31:56 PM | message detail
Diablo (2006s) VS Warcraft (2006s)

Diablo has a strength of 16.21.
Warcraft has a strength of 20.39.

Warcraft wins with 60.25% of the vote!
A win of 25,916 with 126,419 total votes cast.


LoZ: The Wind Waker > Super Smash Bros. Melee
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/6/2009 1:32:09 PM | message detail
All that shows is that WoW > Warcraft 3, not that the RTS games do nothing for his strength.
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White_Turtle | Posted 4/6/2009 1:32:18 PM | message detail
A recommendation to the crew this year:

Keep it short.

Especially you, NGamer. I know you love your long, long, writeups, but I honestly don't give a **** if Game A would get 37.53% on Game B in 2004. Too much analysis, and I stop caring. Most of the crew is actually just fine; a single paragraph, maybe two or three if it's a big match, talking about what each game's odds are and why they're that way, and your justification of your pick. Those are modest, short, and interesting to read, much more than overwhelming us with statistics.


If this is what you're looking for, I strongly suggest reading my analysis topic. I abhor using 5 year old polls to justify anything and any stats I do bring up are usually very relevant.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/6/2009 1:32:46 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #309
Diablo (2006s) VS Warcraft (2006s)

Diablo has a strength of 16.21.
Warcraft has a strength of 20.39.

Warcraft wins with 60.25% of the vote!
A win of 25,916 with 126,419 total votes cast.


LoZ: The Wind Waker > Super Smash Bros. Melee


And whats your reasoning for Warcraft beating Diablo so enthatically that makes you think its not legit?
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/6/2009 1:34:31 PM | message detail
Its the general consensus. He was WAY weaker in round 2 compared to his competition then round 1, when he had no reason to be. He lost Spy, a PC character who possibly was taking some votes and was against characters that shouldn't of hurt him what so ever, yet he bombed and did worse then he did round 1. Only logical explanation is that WoW players didn't recognize him since he isn't seen without his helmet in WoW.

Well considering that there was tougher competition it is expected that Arthas will get a lower percent...

Also WoW fans won't waste time rallying if Arthas is losing and has no chance at coming back so if WoW is behind MGS3 and Halo 2 by enough I don't see rallying being much of a factor.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/6/2009 1:35:43 PM | message detail
Well considering that there was tougher competition it is expected that Arthas will get a lower percent...

Obviously, but I remember seeing people at the time saying stuff like round 1 Arthas woulda gotten 60% on round 2 Arthas. He just got WAY weaker from round 1 to round 2, and why else would that be?

WoW is behind MGS3 and Halo 2.

LOL
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/6/2009 1:36:19 PM | message detail
And whats your reasoning for Warcraft beating Diablo so enthatically that makes you think its not legit?

I guess I have to explain it to you. Just because a series is stronger than the other doesn't mean all the games in the series are stronger than all the games of the other series.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/6/2009 1:37:14 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #315
And whats your reasoning for Warcraft beating Diablo so enthatically that makes you think its not legit?

I guess I have to explain it to you. Just because a series is stronger than the other doesn't mean all the games in the series are stronger than all the games of the other series.


WoW and Diablo 2 are the strongest of their series, and don't forget this series contest was back in WoWs infancy when it had about 6 million subscribers compared to over 11 now.
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/6/2009 1:38:52 PM | message detail
Obviously, but I remember seeing people at the time saying stuff like round 1 Arthas woulda gotten 60% on round 2 Arthas. He just got WAY weaker from round 1 to round 2, and why else would that be?

The only way I see that is if people hold him constant to a SFF Pikachu, which is wrong. Ike was able to LFF Pikachu more than Captain Falcon because he's popular in his own series (which is closer to Pokemon than F-Zero is) and Ike is one of the most used characters in Brawl along with Meta Knight.
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/6/2009 1:39:40 PM | message detail
WoW is behind MGS3 and Halo 2.

LOL


That's not exactly easy competition. Starcraft might not beat either 1v1 in round 1 of a contest.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/6/2009 1:40:40 PM | message detail
Also, the reason I said "LOL" about Halo 2 being too far infront of WoW for rallying to matter is...

WoW and Warcraft in general is a night beast, and Halo fails at night and is a day beast. There is NO way for WoW to not be there with Halo at night even if you think Halo 2 will win. Most of WoWs support is from Europe, which is why it does so great at night.
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/6/2009 1:40:54 PM | message detail
WoW and Diablo 2 are the strongest of their series, and don't forget this series contest was back in WoWs infancy when it had about 6 million subscribers compared to over 11 now.

OoT > FFVII now?

Also WoW was more tolerated in 2005 than it is now.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2232
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3328
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The Mana Sword | Posted 4/6/2009 1:41:37 PM | message detail
So how about that match that's happening tonight, let's talk about that instead.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/6/2009 1:42:18 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #320
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2232


These kinds of polls are easy to anti vote, you know. How exactly are people going to anti vote in 4 way though, I wonder?
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/6/2009 1:42:53 PM | message detail
So how about that match that's happening tonight, let's talk about that instead.

I only have 5 minutes left and when I get back I'll be in first match mode.
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Yesmar | Posted 4/6/2009 1:43:20 PM | message detail
And whats your reasoning for Warcraft beating Diablo so enthatically that makes you think its not legit?

Warcraft has two very popular games (plus two other minor games) from different genres that are very well liked by their audiences to draw on. The Diablo series is much more monolithic and really only has 1 game of any strength on GameFAQS most likely.

Also don't forget that Diablo is roughly equal to Arthas, which clearly proves that comparisons between Blizzard games/characters/whatever are not exact.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/6/2009 1:43:43 PM | message detail

From: White_Turtle | Posted: 4/6/2009 4:32:18 PM | #311
A recommendation to the crew this year:

Keep it short.

Especially you, NGamer. I know you love your long, long, writeups, but I honestly don't give a **** if Game A would get 37.53% on Game B in 2004. Too much analysis, and I stop caring. Most of the crew is actually just fine; a single paragraph, maybe two or three if it's a big match, talking about what each game's odds are and why they're that way, and your justification of your pick. Those are modest, short, and interesting to read, much more than overwhelming us with statistics.


If this is what you're looking for, I strongly suggest reading my analysis topic. I abhor using 5 year old polls to justify anything and any stats I do bring up are usually very relevant.


We abhor you, but that doesn't stop you from speaking. Leave NG alone.
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/6/2009 1:43:51 PM | message detail
These kinds of polls are easy to anti vote, you know. How exactly are people going to anti vote in 4 way though, I wonder?

People anti-voted anti-voters thus giving WoW more support in 2005 than in 2008?
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/6/2009 1:44:04 PM | message detail
Also don't forget that Diablo is roughly equal to Arthas

This was also pre Wotlk announcement when Arthas only had WC3 to fall back on.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/6/2009 1:44:27 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #326
These kinds of polls are easy to anti vote, you know. How exactly are people going to anti vote in 4 way though, I wonder?

People anti-voted anti-voters thus giving WoW more support in 2005 than in 2008?


I meant the "Have you played" polls in general.
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/6/2009 1:44:35 PM | message detail
WoW and Warcraft in general is a night beast, and Halo fails at night and is a day beast. There is NO way for WoW to not be there with Halo at night even if you think Halo 2 will win. Most of WoWs support is from Europe, which is why it does so great at night.

I do wonder about this. Last contest, matches started at 3 AM, so Starcraft didn't do very much with the first night vote before falling way behind during the day and then going berserk from 9 PM to 3 AM. Now that matches start at midnight, I wonder how its pattern will change.
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/6/2009 1:46:30 PM | message detail
I meant the "Have you played" polls in general.

True, but that doesn't take away that WoW is less liked now than it was before considering the anti-voters existed back then as well.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/6/2009 1:47:32 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #330
I meant the "Have you played" polls in general.

True, but that doesn't take away that WoW is less liked now than it was before considering the anti-voters existed back then as well.


In WoWs early days, it didn't have the kinda hatred from people as "Taking over gaming" as it does now, which is the reason why.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 4/6/2009 1:48:11 PM | message detail
"Peak"-Arthas is barely above a SFFed Ike in the age of BrawlFAIL. If that's supposed to inspire fear in WoW, it's completely missed me here.

WoW is a failure. Even the much heralded Starcraft could only barely take down Halo before it got bandwagoned. How am I supposed to believe an entity that, at its best, is equal to the GTA series (on a TUESDAY) is going to do anything of note here?
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/6/2009 1:50:09 PM | message detail
How am I supposed to believe an entity that, at its best, is equal to the GTA series (on a TUESDAY) is going to do anything of note here?

Starcraft took down the strongest Halo close to the time it was released, and WoW is facing the weakest Halo that nobody even plays anymore since all the Halo fans have moved onto Halo 3.

And WoW does have higher ceiling for rallying then Starcraft could ever hope to muster just due to the amount of places out there you can rally.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/6/2009 1:51:27 PM | message detail

From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 4/6/2009 4:48:11 PM | #332
"Peak"-Arthas is barely above a SFFed Ike in the age of BrawlFAIL. If that's supposed to inspire fear in WoW, it's completely missed me here.

WoW is a failure. Even the much heralded Starcraft could only barely take down Halo before it got bandwagoned. How am I supposed to believe an entity that, at its best, is equal to the GTA series (on a TUESDAY) is going to do anything of note here?


It doesn't need to be noteworthy to beat Halo 2 and San Andreas.
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/6/2009 1:52:25 PM | message detail
Halo was stronger back then, near its release? 2003 was even closer to its release, and Master Chief barely beat Felix that year.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/6/2009 1:52:26 PM | message detail
I look forward to WoW being the new villain of the contest ala L Block
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Karma Hunter | Posted 4/6/2009 1:52:32 PM | message detail
Rallying a loser just makes it a slightly more puffed-up loser. SMB proved that WC can be fodderized, and WoW is no WC.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/6/2009 1:53:09 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #335
Halo was stronger back then, near its release? 2003 was even closer to its release, and Master Chief barely beat Felix that year.


The game obviously was if it was able to keep up with a Starcraft that almost beat Melee, bandwagoned or not.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/6/2009 1:53:26 PM | message detail
WoW is no WC.

wut
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/6/2009 1:54:36 PM | message detail
Even the much heralded Starcraft could only barely take down Halo before it got bandwagoned. How am I supposed to believe an entity that, at its best, is equal to the GTA series (on a TUESDAY) is going to do anything of note here?

I'm starting to think I really did miss a super secret Stats Topic meeting where it was decreed that "GTA level = FAIL FAIL FAIL."

FAIL FAIL FAIL even against another entity that FAIL FAIL FAILS in any year when it's not backed up by millions of Microsoft advertising dollars.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/6/2009 1:55:14 PM | message detail
World of Warcraft
Diablo II
Starcraft

I have no idea how to rate these PC games anymore.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 4/6/2009 1:55:30 PM | message detail
It doesn't need to be noteworthy to beat Halo 2 and San Andreas.

Well, duh. But I'm seeing as much weight being given to putting WoW in the finals as Starcraft, and there are lines that need to be drawn at that nonsense. WC beating GTA didn't stop it from being a chump in the end, and the same is true of WoW.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/6/2009 1:55:56 PM | message detail
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Melee_vs_Vice_City_2004

GTA sure was full of fail back then aint it
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/6/2009 1:57:07 PM | message detail

From: MarioSuperstar | #341
World of Warcraft
Diablo II
Starcraft

I have no idea how to rate these PC games anymore.


Really, we don't know if Starcraft or WoW is stronger other then assumptions, but we DO have facts that Diablo is last
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voltch | Posted 4/6/2009 1:57:25 PM | message detail
Blizzard,Halo,GTA,the more mainstream,the harder to predict....but Starcraft II trailers seem to be popping up,as good a time as any to top up that rusty starcraft behemoth.
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/6/2009 1:59:47 PM | message detail
If you mean the Series Contest x-stats (extrapolated through matches where FF and SMB fodderized Diablo/Warcraft, and the FF/SMB match where SMB had major picture advantage at least and possible other advantages), then those are less, probably far less, reliable for indicating the strength of Diablo 2 and World of Warcraft than The List.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/6/2009 2:00:34 PM | message detail
All the WC foddering showed that its tough to rally against a name like Mario; nothing more.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 4/6/2009 2:00:39 PM | message detail
I'm starting to think I really did miss a super secret Stats Topic meeting where it was decreed that "GTA level = FAIL FAIL FAIL."

To be fair, I wouldn't have been so critical of WC had it not followed up that performance with this:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2445

As unreliable as the Series Contest stats are, we're talking about a series that couldn't even crack the top half of field strength. Adjusting for SFF fully, it may even be in the bottom third.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/6/2009 2:02:37 PM | message detail
I remember a rally topic I made for WC backfired with everyone like "ITS MARIO MAN! I can't vote against him!" and it actually helping get Mario more votes then anything.

Hell without the anti rallying it might of been 75-25 even with that horrible pic advantage for Mario.
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/6/2009 2:02:49 PM | message detail
It couldn't rally against Mario? Nothing can rally against anything unless it's at least at 47% or so in a 1v1. That's all rallying can do for you- and there's a lot more to Starcraft than rallying.
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