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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 663

transience | Posted 4/6/2009 12:24:08 AM | message detail
I would account bet on that not happening, probably.
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yzzyx
Lopen | Posted 4/6/2009 12:27:03 AM | message detail
Wow This is the weakest bracket entry poll yet, isn't it?

Also, yeah, I see SMB romping on that poll. I have Ninja Gaiden there but I only have it getting 13% or so.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
creativename | Posted 4/6/2009 12:43:13 AM | message detail
You would honestly be surprised if you saw this?

I'd be extremely surprised. SMBeast will wreak havoc, but it won't be quite that bad for whoever gets 2nd place. 13+% absolute minimum for 2nd place I'd say. Not like that's some sort of achievement! 14-15+% for 2nd place is a safe bet.

On the subject of woeful performances though, look at MM2/Tetris. Those two games are gonna be mauled come the division finals...gawd that's gonna be a slaughter.

Those are two pretty chumptacular games for making it to round 3. Both could end up in the single digits. Can't we just have neither of them win and let some more deserving games take that spot??
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Save_Us.RAT
BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
HaRRicH | Posted 4/6/2009 12:53:04 AM | message detail
I like to think both of them will get 10+% in that match!

Probably not much more though.....
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
Lopen | Posted 4/6/2009 12:57:11 AM | message detail
I guess I'm insane for banking on MM2 beating SMB and LoZ in that match, huh?

I figure-- the top tier Mega Man game has to beat the seventh tier Mario and Zelda game. It really comes down to "where does the Mega Man's strength come from"? And somehow a smorgasbord of games that get knocked down to 10% or lower when faced with real competition doesn't strike me as noble nine material, no matter how many he has. Series strength isn't additive.
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This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
transience | Posted 4/6/2009 1:00:42 AM | message detail
MM2'll do alright, but I'm not sure it can get close to winning. it'll do better than Tetris, which is dead in the water here probably.
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xyzzy
Lopen | Posted 4/6/2009 1:04:51 AM | message detail
I actually have Tetris going down in round 2 due to getting decimated by Mega Man 2, because Tetris certainly doesn't seem the type to hold up well when a strong NES (and Mega Man 2 should be strong, you damn crazy people) game is there.

Of course, the best alternative there Mike Tyson's Punch Out!! so I certainly don't expect much support for that upset, but I think it's got a chance to pan out. Much better than Tetris surviving Round 3, at least.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
bogalx | Posted 4/6/2009 1:12:18 AM | message detail
Okay, I have no idea what to do with the following matches. It could just be that they're pretty much a coin toss, but which ones seem to be the favorite?

Donkey Kong/Punch-Out!!
SFII/FFII(and can SMW take second in the div finals over those with SMB3 there?)
Majora's Mask/Pokemon
Half Life/FFIX
RE4/TP/MGS4 in the quarterfinals
transience | Posted 4/6/2009 1:12:30 AM | message detail
eh, I think Punch-Out could beat Tetris. I don't have a lot of hope for Tetris in this format unless it gets joke votes for god knows what reason.
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xyzzy
creativename | Posted 4/6/2009 1:15:39 AM | message detail
I guess I'm insane for banking on MM2 beating SMB and LoZ in that match, huh?

Umm...April Fools was last week ^_^

Seriously though, there's banking on upsets, and then there's MM2>SMB/LoZ! Even in Bizarro world that's an upset, if that's even logically possible!

MM2's percentage in round 1 - against Pac-Man, Pong, and Oregon Trail - might be just enough for it to squeak by the whatever percent the 2nd place of LoZ/SMB gets in the division final.

Even *that's* not an absolute lock.
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Save_Us.RAT
BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
Lopen | Posted 4/6/2009 1:23:50 AM | message detail
That's pretty ridiculous. No way does Mega Man not get at least 50% in that first match. Those are the worst of the worst entries, there.
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This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
ZFS | Posted 4/6/2009 1:31:55 AM | message detail
Mega Man 2 over SMB1/Zelda 1 bail out

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http://i44.tinypic.com/sficrr.jpg
creativename | Posted 4/6/2009 1:33:50 AM | message detail
No way does Mega Man not get at least 50% in that first match.

What?? There's virtually no chance it gets 50% there. I'd sig bet you or something, but that'd be a horribly horribly unfair bet.

The poll could be MM2/SMB/SMB3/LoZ/OoT and MM2 would get dead last by a mile.
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Save_Us.RAT
BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
Lopen | Posted 4/6/2009 1:36:16 AM | message detail
What is going to take its percentage? Pac-Man? I'll take that sig bet if you really want to for a couple of weeks. I'm thinking Mega Man 2 breaks 60% in that one, personally. That group is total garbage.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
Dilated Chemist | Posted 4/6/2009 1:39:31 AM | message detail
Mega Man 2
Tetris
Legend of Zelda
Super Mario Bros.

Zelda > Tetris

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[ FINAL FOUR ]
FFVII / LoZ: A Link to the Past / LoZ: Ocarina of Time / FFX
MMXcalibur | Posted 4/6/2009 1:40:15 AM | message detail
So, I just took Tetris > Punch Out in the first match just.....because, I guess.
Also, I've got Super Mario 64 > Kirby Superstar. That Castlevania:SotN/Kirby/Resident Evil match for 2nd is a doozy....yikes.
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KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (2-14): 3rd pick in the NFL Draft
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Dilated Chemist | Posted 4/6/2009 1:40:54 AM | message detail
And LOL at MM2 > P-O!! > Tetris.

Seriously?

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[ FINAL FOUR ]
FFVII / LoZ: A Link to the Past / LoZ: Ocarina of Time / FFX
ZFS | Posted 4/6/2009 1:41:41 AM | message detail
I'd be surprised if Tetris was anything but last there. It's going to get crushed hard by Zelda and Mario.

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http://i44.tinypic.com/sficrr.jpg
Dilated Chemist | Posted 4/6/2009 1:45:40 AM | message detail
I honestly think MM2 gets last place easy.

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[ FINAL FOUR ]
FFVII / LoZ: A Link to the Past / LoZ: Ocarina of Time / FFX
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/6/2009 5:08:15 AM | message detail
That's it! Turtle hacked Lopen's account!

Everybody knows the real upset in that division is SMB > LoZ!
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
HotSkitty | Posted 4/6/2009 5:12:27 AM | message detail
What link will the pictures be up at?
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Never gonna give you up.
Dilated Chemist | Posted 4/6/2009 5:16:11 AM | message detail
My big upset in the tournament will be FFX taking 1st against OoT, RE4, and Brawl in the Semi's.

Call me crazy butI think I'm sticking with it.

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[ FINAL FOUR ]
FFVII / LoZ: A Link to the Past / LoZ: Ocarina of Time / FFX
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/6/2009 5:41:00 AM | message detail
Just a quick question.. how much does everybody expect SMB3 to get on LoZ today?
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
Guess how many teens | Posted 4/6/2009 5:52:49 AM | message detail
My big upset in the tournament will be FFX taking 1st against OoT, RE4, and Brawl in the Semi's.

Call me crazy butI think I'm sticking with it.


O____o

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[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[ -Red |||||||||||||| -Green ]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]] -Blue
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/6/2009 5:57:57 AM | message detail
If it was Twilight Princess.. I can understand, but Ocarina of Time isn't going anywhere.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/6/2009 6:00:02 AM | message detail
Er, besides first!
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
The Mana Sword | Posted 4/6/2009 6:12:37 AM | message detail
Mega Man 2 ain't breaking 60% in its first match. It'll be lucky to hit 50%.
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Kleenex...at work!
red sox 777 | Posted 4/6/2009 8:06:55 AM | message detail
50% is hard to get in a 4-way, even when the competition is pathetic. Even Link only got 70% against Bidoof, Edgeworth, and Agent J, which I'd consider much weaker competition than Duck Hunt, Galaga, and Ninja Gaiden, so I don't see MM2 hitting 50% or SMB3 getting anywhere near 70%.
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Hobbes: What's the point of attaching a number to everything you do?
Calvin: If your numbers go up, it means you're having more fun.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/6/2009 8:14:26 AM | message detail

From: MarioSuperstar | Posted: 4/6/2009 8:41:00 AM | #223
Just a quick question.. how much does everybody expect SMB3 to get on LoZ today?


It probably breaks 60% easily.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Lunar: SSSC
The Mana Sword | Posted 4/6/2009 8:28:06 AM | message detail
Mario 3 could definitely approach 70% in its match, I have it getting something close to that in my Oracle. Mega Man 2 just doesn't strike me as a game to pull off a ridiculous percentage like that. Mario 3 does.
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Kleenex...at work!
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/6/2009 8:37:57 AM | message detail
The only division to this day giving me serious trouble is the bottom half of 2001-2003.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
nintendogirl1 | Posted 4/6/2009 8:39:35 AM | message detail
I'd be absolutely shocked if Mario 3 didn't get 65 -70% in it's poll.
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It could even conceivably go as high as 75 but that would be insane.
red sox 777 | Posted 4/6/2009 8:43:45 AM | message detail
Whoops, Mario 3 is up against SimCity, Tecmo Super Bowl, and Secret of Monkey Island, not those other games. Regardless, I'd be stunned if it hit 70%- that's just a ridiculously hard number to pull in 4-ways.
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Hobbes: What's the point of attaching a number to everything you do?
Calvin: If your numbers go up, it means you're having more fun.
InfernoBane | Posted 4/6/2009 8:45:03 AM | message detail
MGS vs FF8, 1 on 1 who wins?


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WarThaHedgehog | Posted 4/6/2009 8:47:35 AM | message detail
Guys, I know this is very "lol X-stats" worthy to look at, but uhh...

Based on 2004, Donkey Kong gets 40% on Tetris. both games had to face Legend of Zelda. I mean, surely Zelda SFFed DK worse than it did Tetris...

Could Donkey Kong beat Tetris in round two?
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/6/2009 8:50:24 AM | message detail

From: WarThaHedgehog | #235
Based on 2004, Donkey Kong gets 40% on Tetris.


You're doing them wrong.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
WarThaHedgehog | Posted 4/6/2009 8:54:05 AM | message detail
....ha ha! I see what I was doing wrong. I didn't click the Raw button! yay arbitrary SFF % that contest!

I'm terrible I know shut up I want to believe Punch-Out!! will break 30% in the first round I'm very terrible ok yeah I get it I had Warcraft winning the Series contest I get it I suck.
charmander6000 | Posted 4/6/2009 8:55:46 AM | message detail
The number seems off so I did it myself, DK would only get 25.48% on Tetris.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
Submit BOP here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=48529509
WarThaHedgehog | Posted 4/6/2009 8:57:19 AM | message detail
Raw DK gets 25%. "lol x-stats" is based on the seemingly arbitrary % boost each game got.
WarThaHedgehog | Posted 4/6/2009 8:57:56 AM | message detail
Well "lol x-stats" if you're stupid like me and didn't think to click the Raw button.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/6/2009 9:03:13 AM | message detail
FFX > KH seems really tempting right now. We have no idea how much more many people bought the original AFTER KHII came out or so.

I'm still thinking about it.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
charmander6000 | Posted 4/6/2009 9:09:59 AM | message detail
Also people tend to forget that getting a high percent is hard.

40% - each opponent getting an average of 33% against you
50% - each opponent getting an average of 25% against you
60% - each opponent getting an average of 18% against you
70% - each opponent getting an average of 12.5% against you

Unless you think SMB is as strong or close to SMB3 it's not going to break 70% and even then I would hesitate. I wouldn't be surprised if SMB struggles to stay above 60%.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
Submit BOP here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=48529509
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/6/2009 9:11:48 AM | message detail
Also people tend to forget that getting a high percent is hard.

True enough. After all, Cloud couldn't even get 60% in round 1 last year.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/6/2009 9:12:20 AM | message detail
Creative, you got the updater site ready for tonight?
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White_Turtle | Posted 4/6/2009 9:45:07 AM | message detail
charmander6000
Posted 4/6/2009 12:02:42 AM
message detail http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3444&region=CA

Canada sure loves its Facebook.


Everyone I know has a Facebook, even old people. I have yet to meet a single person IRL that has a myspace. It's odd how small things like that are so radically different between Canada and the US
White_Turtle | Posted 4/6/2009 9:45:53 AM | message detail
Oh, and Ulti will be glad to know I picked up a copy of Earthbound for $5 at the pawn shop. Cartridge only, but one of the key SNES games I don't own.
Lopen | Posted 4/6/2009 9:58:12 AM | message detail
I think you people are underestimating just how much worse game SFF will be than character SFF. Do you not remember things like LttP > Super Metroid or Ocarina of Time > Mario 64 or SMW > Sonic 2 in landslides? Beatdowns like that don't happen nearly as often with two strong characters. Only one I can think of that wasn't an obvious thing like SMB3 smashing SMB was Link thrashing Yoshi. And I'd take Yoshi vs Link to be a much bigger strength gap than any of those game pairings up there.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/6/2009 10:09:59 AM | message detail
Hm.. anybody have an idea on if SSBM can do well on this format with other GC titles?
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
The Mana Sword | Posted 4/6/2009 10:17:49 AM | message detail
Lopen, you've got OoT losing to Halo, you don't know what you're talking about !!
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Kleenex...at work!
White_Turtle | Posted 4/6/2009 10:28:07 AM | message detail
SSBM is probably the strongest Gamecube game by a good bit.

That said, Wind Waker is going to leech the hell out of it and it will be lucky to get to the third round. And if it does, it won't be advancing thanks to Metroid Prime