GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 663
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/4/2009 6:17:08 PM | message detail |
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Castlevania SotN > Mario 64 CONFIRMED. ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/ http://thengamer.com/xstats http://thengamer.com/stats ~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the match pics*~ http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them. X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process. rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it. For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything. --- .,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,. Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Lunar: SSSC |
| TriggerTRE | Posted 4/4/2009 6:17:37 PM | message detail |
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SOTN > RE1 --- [ FINAL FOUR ] FFVII / LoZ: A Link to the Past / LoZ: Ocarina of Time / FFX |
| red sox 777 | Posted 4/4/2009 6:20:49 PM | message detail |
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Starcraft > Final Fantasy VII --- Hobbes: What's the point of attaching a number to everything you do? Calvin: If your numbers go up, it means you're having more fun. |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/5/2009 6:44:14 AM | message detail |
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FOUR IN A ROW, CALL ME BUTTER CUZ I'M ON A ROLL BOYYYYYYY. Play EarthBound. --- .,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,. Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Lunar: SSSC |
| _Harmonica_ | Posted 4/5/2009 6:46:24 AM | message detail |
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Earthbound isn't that great. --- Hrm http://i303.photobucket.com/albums/nn134/Zolomy/1237404866677.jpg |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/5/2009 6:50:54 AM | message detail |
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How much SFF is needed between MGS and RE for RE to be equal to SOTN, assuming MGS = Goldeneye? It'd be something like from 29% to 41%. Dunno who to compare it to. Maybe it'd be what Sonic would have gotten if there wasn't anything weird. Who knows. --- *is Dranze* Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket. |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/5/2009 6:56:31 AM | message detail |
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12% isn't unreasonable at all, especially given Castlevania's downward trend and RE's massive upward trend. --- .,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,. Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Lunar: SSSC |
| charmander6000 | Posted 4/5/2009 6:57:17 AM | message detail |
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How much SFF is needed between MGS and RE for RE to be equal to SOTN, assuming MGS = Goldeneye? Enough to make a 64/36 match into a 50/50. Personally I'd take MGS > GE even in 2k4 though RE would have needed to boost like mad since 2k4 for it to have a chance against SOTN IMO. Also looking at the match the only SFF SOTN and RE will be seeing is the one against eachother (It'd probably be more LFF than SFF) --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls Submit BOP here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=48529509 |
| transience | Posted 4/5/2009 7:00:01 AM | message detail |
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where does this MGS/RE SFF idea come from? Leon and Dante? 'cause that was all Pikachu and the match the next year proved it. --- xyzzy |
| transience | Posted 4/5/2009 7:00:32 AM | message detail |
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and besides, Jill beat Ocelot last year. --- xyzzy http://img.imgcake.com//chewing.jpg |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/5/2009 7:04:03 AM | message detail |
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There had to have been SFF in MGS to many people mainly because of where it puts RE even if you put MGS in reasonable spots. --- *is Dranze* Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket. |
| transience | Posted 4/5/2009 7:06:36 AM | message detail |
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oh, so this is one of those "Resident Evil got beaten badly, there HAS to be something weird going on!!"? I'll be back when we've moved on to something more reasonable. --- xyzzy |
| plasmabeam | Posted 4/5/2009 7:09:36 AM | message detail |
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and besides, Jill beat Ocelot last year. Even ****ing Pac-Man beat post-MGS3 Ocelot 1-on-1. --- ~Jacksonville Jaguars~ |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/5/2009 7:12:06 AM | message detail |
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From: transience | Posted: 4/5/2009 10:06:36 AM | #012 No less weird than what happened with FF7/MGS. --- .,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,. Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Lunar: SSSC |
| transience | Posted 4/5/2009 7:24:02 AM | message detail |
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Even ****ing Pac-Man beat post-MGS3 Ocelot 1-on-1. what does this have to do with anything? Ocelot and Jill were about a 50/50 match heads-up indirectly and it played out according to plan. you'd think there would be *something* weird going on if there was some wonky fanbase split that trended towards MGS. No less weird than what happened with FF7/MGS. MGS pretty much sucked in 2004, almost losing to FFT and then Snake being a joke in the summer contest. yeah, it looks wacky being under MGS2 in the stats. but EVERYTHING looks wacky in the stats outside of the top 5 or 6. if we call this SFF, we might as well call CT/Mario World SFF, or any other random match in 2004. 2004 is just completely screwed up. 2008 will be, too. that's just how games are. --- xyzzy http://img.imgcake.com//chewing.jpg --- xyzzy http://img.imgcake.com//chewing.jpg |
| transience | Posted 4/5/2009 7:24:21 AM | message detail |
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woo double sig --- xyzzy http://img.imgcake.com//chewing.jpg |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/5/2009 7:26:22 AM | message detail |
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I'm really starting to consider SMB > Zelda but I have like, no reason to consider either game over the other. --- *is Dranze* Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket. |
| transience | Posted 4/5/2009 7:26:54 AM | message detail |
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wait, does this mean you think any RE4/MGS4 match will kill off both games? like, RE4/MGS4/TP/Brawl (or Galaxy, whatever). this is now debatable? what about MGS4/Fallout 3/RE4/TP - is this TP/Fallout 3? --- xyzzy |
| charmander6000 | Posted 4/5/2009 7:58:48 AM | message detail |
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Well considering how close MGS4/F3 are it wouldn't take much to push
Fallout 3 above MGS4. Then again RE4/MGS4 aren't even on the same
system so why would they overlap? --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls Submit BOP here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=48529509 |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/5/2009 8:01:49 AM | message detail |
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From: charmander6000 | #019 gun sff duh --- http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/albion+hero.png http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/99/83fb11b029a5ceb7fa222a6090a0af53408dafb3.jpg |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 4/5/2009 8:09:04 AM | message detail |
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MGS pretty much sucked in 2004, almost losing to FFT and then Snake
being a joke in the summer contest. yeah, it looks wacky being under
MGS2 in the stats. but EVERYTHING looks wacky in the stats outside of
the top 5 or 6. if we call this SFF, we might as well call CT/Mario
World SFF, or any other random match in 2004. The four games with the biggest weighted gains on the Top 100 List as compared to the 2k4 stats are: Metal Gear Solid, Goldeneye, Final Fantasy Tactics, and Symphony of the Night. I really don't think that's a coincidence. --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/5/2009 8:09:53 AM | message detail |
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you're trying to say symphony of the night and final fantasy tactics gained in the recent years hahahahaha what --- http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/albion+hero.png http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/99/83fb11b029a5ceb7fa222a6090a0af53408dafb3.jpg |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 4/5/2009 8:10:59 AM | message detail |
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Putting "obvious" examples of SFF (those that got accounted for in the "adjusted" stats, i.e. Mario 64) aside, I mean. --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 4/5/2009 8:12:28 AM | message detail |
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you're trying to say symphony of the night and final fantasy tactics gained in the recent years hahahahaha what Do you have any ability to exercise reading comprehension or are you just completely clueless? --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| charmander6000 | Posted 4/5/2009 8:12:56 AM | message detail |
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No he's saying that they aren't as weak as the 2k4 stats show. Now is a
different story (remember it has been 3.5 years since the top 100 list
was made) --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls Submit BOP here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=48529509 |
| transience | Posted 4/5/2009 8:18:05 AM | message detail |
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I'm willing to budge a bit on MGS/FF7. that's just FF7 destroying the
entire system. OOT does the same thing. it's not "SFF", it's "lol FF7
smashes the PS1 in the face". MGS/RE is something totally else. there's nothing to grasp onto for evidence. --- yzzyx |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/5/2009 8:18:40 AM | message detail |
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Even then, I don't expect them to be anywhere close to their 2004 stats
even now. SFF is more harsh than dropping like, 99% of the time. .. Well, there has been Magus.... --- *is Dranze* Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 4/5/2009 8:21:05 AM | message detail |
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I'm not really sure what to make of MGS/RE. It's not exactly like RE
had a stellar year in the character contest that time around either,
for what it's worth (Jill goes from being above Luigi to losing to a
completely unrecognizable Ryu H.?). It's probably a bit stronger
relative to other stuff than if you just went by pure extrapolation,
but the REsurgence is a lot more relevant to its contest strength today. --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| charmander6000 | Posted 4/5/2009 8:23:14 AM | message detail |
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Luigi wasn't that strong in 2003 or 2004... --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls Submit BOP here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=48529509 |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/5/2009 8:23:33 AM | message detail |
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Jill practically went nowhere after RE4 came out, so I really doubt RE
would gain substantially outside of possible franchise voting. --- *is Dranze* Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket. |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/5/2009 8:23:55 AM | message detail |
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From: charmander6000 | #029 would you expect luigi to lose to pre xbox ninja gaiden ryu H? --- http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/albion+hero.png http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/99/83fb11b029a5ceb7fa222a6090a0af53408dafb3.jpg |
| transience | Posted 4/5/2009 8:25:55 AM | message detail |
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would you expect luigi to lose to pre xbox ninja gaiden ryu H? what the hell --- yzzyx |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 4/5/2009 8:26:54 AM | message detail |
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--- FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't. |
| transience | Posted 4/5/2009 8:32:18 AM | message detail |
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I'm not really sure what to make of MGS/RE. It's not exactly like RE
had a stellar year in the character contest that time around either,
for what it's worth (Jill goes from being above Luigi to losing to a
completely unrecognizable Ryu H.?). It's probably a bit stronger
relative to other stuff than if you just went by pure extrapolation,
but the REsurgence is a lot more relevant to its contest strength today. you know as well as I do that using Old Luigi is misleading. you might as well say that Jill's gone from Kirby to Ocelot -- Crono going from Mario to Vincent's got nothing on that. there's really not a good way to measure Jill anyway. she got ZSS'd in 2006 and 2007 is just jacked up in general. either way I don't think she's fallen as badly as you're trying to imply. --- xyzzy http://img.imgcake.com//chewing.jpg |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 4/5/2009 8:41:02 AM | message detail |
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It's not even about Old Luigi. Let's just use a simple comparison on
how they went out to see what I mean. Going from 40% on Squall to
losing to the guy that got 38% on Sora - the extent is up to exactly
how far off you think Squall was from Sora back then, but any way you
slice it that's a significant drop. --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| transience | Posted 4/5/2009 8:49:45 AM | message detail |
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it's a drop.. but not THAT big of one. stats show it as 56/44. but
besides, we're talking about 2004 Resident Evil, not 2003 - any measure
of it dropping or ascending would be from 2004 on. anything prior to
2004 is, quite frankly, meaningless. Jill has been relatively stagnant
since 2004. --- xyzzy http://www.mistwalkercorp.com/en/_src/sc569/HNI_0022.jpg |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/5/2009 8:55:26 AM | message detail |
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From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 4/5/2009 11:12:28 AM | #024 You just went BALLIN all over Albion's FACE. --- .,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,. Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Lunar: SSSC |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/5/2009 8:57:59 AM | message detail |
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You know what? Screw it. In a close match, I hate going against who I like more. SOTN > RE let's do this. --- .,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,. Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Lunar: SSSC |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/5/2009 9:25:16 AM | message detail |
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Did anybody bother to create a BOP bracket? Just figured I'd point that out since brackets close tomorrow. And I fail to see how RE4's success retroactively applies itself to the earlier Resident Evils. The same is said for MGS4 supposedly boosting MGS through the roof. There are only 3 series where you have any noticeable franchise voting, and those are the big 3 (FF, Zelda, Mario) --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1 |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/5/2009 10:22:30 AM | message detail |
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So.. Perfect Dark/Pokemon. --- *is Dranze* Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket. |
| charmander6000 | Posted 4/5/2009 10:33:52 AM | message detail |
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would you expect luigi to lose to pre xbox ninja gaiden ryu H? Two things. 1) Ninja Gaiden was released before the contest, that's the reason why Hayabusa got in the contest in the first place and was overrated to hell and back by the board. 2) I had Jill > Hayabusa and took it without thinking Luigi was weaker back then and people underestimated Jill. You would know that if you were a contest regular back then. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls Submit BOP here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=48529509 |
| ffmasterjose | Posted 4/5/2009 10:37:29 AM | message detail |
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What about Perfect Dark? It's not advancing >_> It's a huge Nintendo SFF fest, I don't see it overcoming a Zelda game and arguably the most popular generation of Pokemon. --- 0/0 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest NP: Tetris > Mike Tyson's Punch-Out!! |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/5/2009 10:46:46 AM | message detail |
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How do we exactly know that? I can't really come up with a conclusion
on this match. The only thing I can say with confidence is Zelda:
Majora's Mask > Perfect Dark... but I can't say where Pokemon
places. It could place from third to first. --- *is Dranze* Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket. |
| HaRRicH | Posted 4/5/2009 10:52:11 AM | message detail |
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I'll take LoZ:MM > PD. LoZ:MM/Pokemon should have a match similar to
LoZ:WW/MP (though I think what we'll see is a slightly weaker version
of that match), and I'm assuming PD hasn't fallen as hard as C:SotN
(which it barely lost to in 2004). It's also worth mentioning that
C:SotN got ~41% on GE in 2004 and the site has favored FPS-'s a lot
more since 2004. Based off that, PD has a good chance to sneak in while
LoZ:MM/Pokemon are LFF'ing (and, though BK is also Rare, it's plenty
Nintendo-y enough to say it's probably a non-factor). Pokemon R/B/Y does have some stand-out ability as the most loved handheld game in a sea of N64 games, but they're still Nintendo systems from the same time-frame and it still has Pokemon against a major LoZ-game. PD will also stand out as the only FPS-game and certainly the most mature of them. (finally, a chance to take up for one of my favorite games!) --- Prototype Shorthand, do you speak it?! |
| Board Odds Project | Posted 4/5/2009 10:52:39 AM | message detail |
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Did anybody bother to create a BOP bracket? Yep. Submitted based on the most recent update to the BOP. |
| charmander6000 | Posted 4/5/2009 10:58:45 AM | message detail |
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Yep. Submitted based on the most recent update to the BOP. Who did you take in MMX/LA in round 2 (tied) or the first match of round 4 (SMB3 is the favourite for both 1st and 2nd)? --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls Submit BOP here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=48529509 |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/5/2009 11:08:15 AM | message detail |
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Harrich has some interesting reasoning. I never once thought about PD possibly standing up to Zelda more than Pokemon. PD and MM were released in the same exact year on the same contest. I can't picture them LFF just as hard as Pokemon. I wonder how a Pokemon R/B/Y/PD match would go anyhow. --- *is Dranze* Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket. |
| voltch | Posted 4/5/2009 11:12:06 AM | message detail |
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ooh,666 soon,wonder which match will be blessed by the devil. --- Pearl FC:3953 0978 7217 |
| pieisthebest | Posted 4/5/2009 11:29:12 AM | message detail |
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For me, my final two debates are FFII vs. SFII and Starcraft vs. FFVIII. Under a 1v1 situation with no SFF or LFF, who do you think would win each of these matches? --- http://i684.photobucket.com/albums/vv208/pieisthebest/meleesig.gif http://helloyellowjello.smfforfree4.com/index.php |
| pieisthebest | Posted 4/5/2009 11:34:11 AM | message detail |
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Also MGS vs. FFX --- http://i684.photobucket.com/albums/vv208/pieisthebest/meleesig.gif http://helloyellowjello.smfforfree4.com/index.php |
