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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 662

ZFS | Posted 4/4/2009 5:30:00 PM | message detail
Alucard is as good an indicator of SOTN as any other weaker characters are of their stronger games. How far down are we expecting Trigger to have fallen?

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SonicRaptor | Posted 4/4/2009 5:31:09 PM | message detail

From: ZFS | #387
Yeah, Castlevania is really in a tailspin right now because there hasn't been a mega-release in some time. Konami just seems to treat it as "well, another year, another Castlevania" and slaps a "(blank) of (blank)" subtitle on a DS box and kicks it out the door.

If you mean in a tailspin here, I wouldn't agree. Not that I think SOTN is going to beat Mario 64 (although it's not a big stretch), but there's not much different today about Castlevania than there was a few years ago. It's still getting mostly handheld releases every year or other year. The increased vote totals might hurt it, but I don't think it'd be significantly. SOTN's always managed to do well here, in contests and out.

Some pollz...

http://www.gamefaqs.com/console/psx/home/196885.html

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2806
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2799
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1643


Here? No, SOTN is still very much supported here. But the poll is out there and I don't believe Castlevania has any strength to voters in general given the lack of mega-titles. DS games really don't register to me because they get pumped out every year with no real build-up anymore.
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/4/2009 5:32:22 PM | message detail
Games =/= Characters and expecting games to fall parallel with characters are 2 different circumstances. If Crono showed strength of a mid-carder last year despite being more impressive before then, people that would expect Chrono Trigger to still perform as a top 5 game using games=/=characters as an excuse is just plain ignoring logic
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
SonicRaptor | Posted 4/4/2009 5:32:29 PM | message detail
SOTN > Mario 64 is even more stupid because Mario 64 will be leeching Kirby Super Star's votes.
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
RPGuy96 | Posted 4/4/2009 5:34:17 PM | message detail
I'd have expected a fair amount, though it starts far enough above everything else that it probably wouldn't be in any huge danger. When Crono, Frog, and Magus all take huge dives since 2004 this does not seem unreasonable. Whether or not CTDS can do anything, eh, it doesn't really matter this contest in any case.
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Mustache...and Green...
http://backloggery.com/rpguy96
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/4/2009 5:35:32 PM | message detail
I *really* want to start another Samus > Mario argument, but a promise is a promise.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Lunar: SSSC
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/4/2009 5:39:14 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #386
1v1, I'd literally flip a coin. There's no way to know.


I'd take world. I think 2D Mario gaming is far more loved.

Plus it stood up to Mario 3 a little bit better.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
ZFS | Posted 4/4/2009 5:41:00 PM | message detail
The only reason Trigger performs as a top 5 game is because of Nintendo's apparent downturn. There were plenty of people here ready to take a number of high Nintendo games over it, stuff like TP included, not that long ago. Compared to what kind of year CT as a whole had in 2004 and how they've performed since, there's definitely no reason to expect Trigger to have held up the same. There's point after point you could make about how things have changed, and not for the better for CT.

But whatever, I don't even know what we're arguing anymore. Not that I was ever really arguing anything in the first place -- I'm not taking SOTN further than round 2, and I don't think it can beat Mario 64, but there's a decent case there for someone who did. Just not me because I don't believe it.

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SonicRaptor | Posted 4/4/2009 5:42:19 PM | message detail

From: MarioSuperstar | #407
I'd take world. I think 2D Mario gaming is far more loved.

Plus it stood up to Mario 3 a little bit better.


Yeah, 2D Mario seems to have more nostalgia going for it than their 3D counterparts. I'd pick World over 64 as well.
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/4/2009 5:44:00 PM | message detail
I think RE > SOTN has a better chance of happening.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/4/2009 5:50:25 PM | message detail

From: MarioSuperstar | Posted: 4/4/2009 8:44:00 PM | #410
I think RE > SOTN has a better chance of happening.


Ditto.

And **** it. SOTN > Mario 64 ranks right up there with Samus > Mario when it comes to moronic stat topic overthink. Just take a step away from stats and use common sense for a second. If SOTN were in a poll with every other Mario game EVER, I still doubt it gets more votes than Mario 64.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/4/2009 5:51:51 PM | message detail
Hey guys, how likely is it that Final Fantasy 9 actually advances
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FastFalcon05 sure knows how to fill out a better contest bracket than I!
Dragonblight, Dontnerfme: 79 Warlock, 0/17/54
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/4/2009 5:52:24 PM | message detail
Well, I wouldn't call it idiotic. It's a pretty good upset pick, and I wouldn't count it as impossible because we don't know where Mario 64 truly is 100%, and we also haven't had a Game Contest in 5 years.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
ZFS | Posted 4/4/2009 5:53:13 PM | message detail
Resident Evil over SOTN speaking of bad upsets

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Dilated Chemist | Posted 4/4/2009 5:53:45 PM | message detail
It depends on if people actually cared about Chrono Cross.

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[ FINAL FOUR ]
FFVII / LoZ: A Link to the Past / LoZ: Ocarina of Time / FFX
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/4/2009 5:54:09 PM | message detail
It's a pretty good upset pick

No, it's not. FF8 > Starcraft or MGS > FFX are good upset picks. SOTN > Mario 64 is just "here, I don't need these points".
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RPGuy96 | Posted 4/4/2009 5:54:45 PM | message detail
Now, now, let's not get carried away. Even if Symphony's not what it used to be I certainly don't think it's in any danger from RE1.
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Mustache...and Green...
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Dilated Chemist | Posted 4/4/2009 5:56:26 PM | message detail
If SOTN gets knocked out by RE1 I will close this account.

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[ FINAL FOUR ]
FFVII / LoZ: A Link to the Past / LoZ: Ocarina of Time / FFX
The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/4/2009 5:59:23 PM | message detail
I do think RE is the more reasonable pick. The series itself is stronger than Castlevania now, and the addition of RE4 and the recent RE5 probably helps it out. And I doubt its match with Metal Gear Solid in 2004 was even a reasonable indicator of what it could do to begin with so it's probably been underrated from the start.

I ain't taking it but it's much more reasonable than having Mario 64 lose to SotN
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/4/2009 6:00:09 PM | message detail
Nice knowing you Chemist.
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FastFalcon05 sure knows how to fill out a better contest bracket than I!
Dragonblight, Dontnerfme: 79 Warlock, 0/17/54
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/4/2009 6:01:38 PM | message detail
I dunno, RE > SOTN doesn't seem too unreasonable. In the 2004 stats, SOTN beats RE 58-42.

However, RE is behind SFF twice in the 2004 stats, while SOTN is only behind SFF once. FF7 > MGS and MGS > RE counts for a lot more total SFF than OOT > Goldeneye, plus you have to look at the trends since then. Resident Evil has been on a giant upswing because of RE4, and RE5's recent release should also help. SOTN hasn't gotten any younger, the Castlevania series has become lazy and uninspired, and these two trends put together means a lot of good news for RE.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Lunar: SSSC
XxSoulxX | Posted 4/4/2009 6:01:40 PM | message detail
RE2 Vs. SotN would be interesting, but RE1 stands no shot there. I would probably take SotN over RE2 as well.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/4/2009 6:02:05 PM | message detail
Prospects for 9 are pretty grim. It's easily the black sheep of the series, and is competing with Chrono Cross for bad-Square-game-votes.

Seriously though, it seems that the people who actually enjoyed FF9 are also the same people that for some reason liked Chrono Cross. They will be splitting pretty hard, it all depends on which way the split goes. 9 needs to beat CC into the ground to get past Half-Life.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
TriggerTRE | Posted 4/4/2009 6:02:15 PM | message detail
If RE1 gets knocked out by SOTN Albion will get on his knees and service.

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Final Four
Super Mario Bros. 3 / Final Fantasy VII / The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time / Metal Gear Solid 4
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/4/2009 6:02:43 PM | message detail

From: Dilated Chemist | Posted: 4/4/2009 8:56:26 PM | #418
If SOTN gets knocked out by RE1 I will close this account.


Saving this post.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Lunar: SSSC
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/4/2009 6:03:49 PM | message detail

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted: 4/4/2009 9:02:05 PM | #423
Prospects for 9 are pretty grim. It's easily the black sheep of the series, and is competing with Chrono Cross for bad-Square-game-votes.

Seriously though, it seems that the people who actually enjoyed FF9 are also the same people that for some reason liked Chrono Cross. They will be splitting pretty hard, it all depends on which way the split goes. 9 needs to beat CC into the ground to get past Half-Life.


I see no scenario where Half-Life doesn't get second place in that match.
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ZFS | Posted 4/4/2009 6:04:01 PM | message detail
Fortunately DC has nothing to worry about there

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XxSoulxX | Posted 4/4/2009 6:04:28 PM | message detail
Ulti, since you're active in this topic, is it true that you haven't played Orange Box/Half-Life series yet?
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/4/2009 6:05:58 PM | message detail
Oh, believe me, I don't think FF9 has even a remote chance there. Though I would love for it to happen to give Starcraft a nice shot at going deep.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
ffmasterjose | Posted 4/4/2009 6:06:43 PM | message detail
Hey guys, how likely is it that Final Fantasy 9 actually advances

Hmmm, seemingly not very. If it weren't for Chrono Cross there to split the Square fanbase then its chances would be a lot better. But unfortunately not too many seem to care about either game very much, so fans are basically picking their poison. It wouldn't surprise me too terribly much if OoT > FFIX occurs, but it's a pretty uphill battle that I don't see it winning.

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0/0 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Tetris > Mike Tyson's Punch-Out!!
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/4/2009 6:07:38 PM | message detail

From: XxSoulxX | Posted: 4/4/2009 9:04:28 PM | #428
Ulti, since you're active in this topic, is it true that you haven't played Orange Box/Half-Life series yet?


I've played the original Half-Life's multiplayer a lot, but I do not yet have The Orange Box. It's on my list of games to get in the PS3 haul once I finally get my inheritance.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/4/2009 6:08:40 PM | message detail
And I must say, it feels good to have a bunch of free time and be active on B8 again. This place is fun =p
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/4/2009 6:09:21 PM | message detail
How far down are we expecting Trigger to have fallen?

I'd guess 5-6% on its former self before CTDS, and I don't see any reason why it wouldn't have moved along with its characters. That would have put it below LTTP, SMB3, and SSBM prior to the Deboost and CTDS.
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transience | Posted 4/4/2009 6:12:21 PM | message detail
whoa, didn't expect such a hostile response to SOTN beating Mario 64. people realize Yoshi's Island would be here, right? you're talking about a game that's probably worth 40% on Mario 64, and that's assuming Mario 64 is worthwhile (something it's never shown). you're talking #13 vs. #16 on The List - not that it means much, but I'm throwing it out there. this is also assuming Nintendo isn't awful this year -- and every metric says it'll be worse than last year's character battle. you guys are talking about Alucard, but Mario characters looked worse last year than Alucard ever did.

I don't have this in my bracket and won't take it, but you're calling something in a fourway contest insane and stupid? really?
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xyzzy
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/4/2009 6:12:44 PM | message detail
Given 2004 and CTDS, I think CT is maybe 2-3% behind the 2004 stats. Sadly, it has an easy path and only one debatable match: FF7 v Goldeneye v Chrono Trigger v Mario 64. FF7 obviously wins that, but if CT's fallen a lot it might have to rely on Goldeneye and Mario 64 to hurt each other.

Er no wait, SOTN will be in that match instead of Mario 64. Scratch that, CT wins easy.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/4/2009 6:12:56 PM | message detail

From: transience | #434
you're talking about a game that's probably worth 40% on Mario 64,




XD
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/4/2009 6:13:48 PM | message detail
you're calling something in a fourway contest insane and stupid? really?

Yes, I am. On what basis do you have Yoshi's Island getting 40% on Mario 64?
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/4/2009 6:14:48 PM | message detail
Oh you're saying Castlevania is worth 40% on Mario 64.

The way you phrased it made it look like you were talking about YI
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
TriggerTRE | Posted 4/4/2009 6:15:11 PM | message detail
You know, this whole time I thought it was just Yoshi's Island. Never did I know there was even a SMW2.

>,>

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[ FINAL FOUR ]
FFVII / LoZ: A Link to the Past / LoZ: Ocarina of Time / FFX
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/4/2009 6:15:36 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1010

A search on "Yoshi's Island" yields only this one poll result, dunno if there are any I missed.

Clearly, Yoshi's Island would break 40% on Mario 64.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/4/2009 6:16:21 PM | message detail
Oh, you mean SOTN worth 40% on Mario 64. For a second there, I thought HM hacked your account.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/4/2009 6:16:37 PM | message detail
I think he meant SOTN. <_<;;
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/4/2009 6:16:42 PM | message detail

From: transience | #434
whoa, didn't expect such a hostile response to SOTN beating Mario 64. people realize Yoshi's Island would be here, right? you're talking about a game that's probably worth 40% on Mario 64, and that's assuming Mario 64 is worthwhile (something it's never shown). you're talking #13 vs. #16 on The List - not that it means much, but I'm throwing it out there. this is also assuming Nintendo isn't awful this year -- and every metric says it'll be worse than last year's character battle. you guys are talking about Alucard, but Mario characters looked worse last year than Alucard ever did.

I don't have this in my bracket and won't take it, but you're calling something in a fourway contest insane and stupid? really?


Yoshi's Island may be worth 40% on Mario 64, but indirectly only. I fully expect it to get beat into the ground by Mario 64, and that's the only thing keeping me from pulling the trigger on this upset.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
ffmasterjose | Posted 4/4/2009 6:16:53 PM | message detail
I also haven't played any of the Half-Life series or anything on the Orange Box. I really want to though. When I get a 360 that's on my shortlist of games to pick up. It's only 20 bucks new on Amazon, I can't pass that up!
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0/0 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Tetris > Mike Tyson's Punch-Out!!
red sox 777 | Posted 4/4/2009 6:17:38 PM | message detail
Mario also looked pretty bad in 2003-4- as far as he fell last year, he's probably still a little above his 2004 level. Alucard's done too poorly recently for me to think SOTN even has a good chance at 40% on Mario 64, and even if it could do that, and 100% of Yoshi's Island votes were leeched from Mario 64, Yoshi's Island would still have to avoid a doubling from Mario 64 to LFF it enough for SOTN to take that. All 3 of those seem very unlikely individually, much less together.
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Hobbes: What's the point of attaching a number to everything you do?
Calvin: If your numbers go up, it means you're having more fun.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/4/2009 6:19:06 PM | message detail
Yeah, even SotN being worth 40% seems kind of weird. I'd take Mario 64 over Goldeneye, and that's about what it's worth on Goldeneye. And that was in 2004. I'd expect a Mario game to hold up better so the difference would only get bigger
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/4/2009 6:19:37 PM | message detail
No response to why I think RE > SOTN? I have a convincing argument.
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transience | Posted 4/4/2009 6:20:22 PM | message detail
oh, whoops. I meant SOTN being worth 40% on Mario 64.
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xyzzy
TriggerTRE | Posted 4/4/2009 6:20:46 PM | message detail
Convince me, Ulti.

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[ FINAL FOUR ]
FFVII / LoZ: A Link to the Past / LoZ: Ocarina of Time / FFX
ZFS | Posted 4/4/2009 6:20:46 PM | message detail
That's a convincing argument? Really?

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