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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 662

Karma Hunter | Posted 4/3/2009 1:04:57 PM | message detail
I mean Crono Cross has next to NO relation to Crono Trigger. How is that an even valid argument?

And I suppose the Final Fantasy games aren't relatable at all, either? CT and CC have more of a connection than any given two FF games, or even the entire FF series as a whole. Give me a break, this reeks of desperation.

MGS3 is the weakest in popularity. Maybe not amongst the hardcore MGS fans, but amogst ALL gamers who vote in these contests.

Which you can only provide reasoning with via sales, ignoring 1. GameFAQs' own Top 100 List, 2. the strengths of their respective protagonists and supporting cast (has any MGS2 character even MADE a contest besides Raiden?), and 3. http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=775

MGS2 has MGS3's ground to make up and THEN some, people, if we want to use GotY polls.
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/3/2009 1:08:56 PM | message detail
Which MGS2 character is deep or important enough to have in the contest is a better point. It doesn't have an exclusive character like the Boss that could be contest worthy.
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The Mana Sword | Posted 4/3/2009 1:10:30 PM | message detail
MGS2 is weak because it didn't have enough Raiden.
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Kleenex...at work!
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/3/2009 1:11:11 PM | message detail
The Boss
Big Boss
Ocelot didn't come into MGS3 (You could rule this as a coincidence but.. whatever)

I suppose Raiden is the only thing I can remember from MGS2 sadly.. though you'd at least expect Vamp somewhere, right? Maybe even Solidus.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/3/2009 1:11:33 PM | message detail
until* not into.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
WarThaHedgehog | Posted 4/3/2009 1:12:19 PM | message detail
Fortune?
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 4/3/2009 1:12:54 PM | message detail
tag
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/3/2009 1:13:41 PM | message detail
Um... Ocelot was in all 4 MGS games.
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http://lw-studio.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/pics/TengenToppaGurrenLagannYOKO/TengenToppaGurrenLagannYOKO01.gif
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/3/2009 1:14:00 PM | message detail

From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 4/3/2009 3:39:46 PM | #174
I'd argue that it was more GTA4/Brawl falling then MGS4 gaining strength over time.

If GTA4 and Brawl were popular when they first came out, why wouldn't they be popular now?








...see where I'm going here with this line of argument's utter stupidity?


You can't pre-judge Albion, he was born that way.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Diablo 2, Lunar: SSSC
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/3/2009 1:14:38 PM | message detail
When I say he didn't come until MGS3, I meant into the contest of course.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
Calintares | Posted 4/3/2009 1:16:13 PM | message detail
the geolocation thing might be useful if the balance of where the voters come from were to change. Say if SBallen made a huge push to make the site popular in Japan, we can now predict what that it would mean. That is, if the new voters share somewhat the taste of the ones who are here now.

I speculate that some of the Square dominance in 2003-2004 might have been due to more european voters.

Are there any "where do you live" polls from around that time?
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Ours is not to reason why, ours is but to do and die.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/3/2009 1:32:48 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1045 - 2002

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1385 - 2003 (after the contest).
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
Calintares | Posted 4/3/2009 1:37:56 PM | message detail
so much for that theory.

there was also the problem of Crono continuing to do well in 2003-2004 even though he is unknown in Europe.
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Ours is not to reason why, ours is but to do and die.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/3/2009 1:57:54 PM | message detail
So anybody know how many entrants we could have possibly had in the 2005 Top 10 thing?
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
voltch | Posted 4/3/2009 2:03:27 PM | message detail
european population ong Gfaqs is either horrendous or we don't vote,except for beligians,apparantly it's against the law to abstain from voting over there.
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Pearl FC:3953 0978 7217
HaRRicH | Posted 4/3/2009 2:19:48 PM | message detail
Do you mean the drop-down box on the Top 100 List? There was 120-130 games on it (I forget the right number), plus two write-ins that made it on (ToS and Halo 2).
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/3/2009 3:04:09 PM | message detail
I mean the possible number of users that filled it in. Is that given anywhere?
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/3/2009 3:17:59 PM | message detail
Meanwhile, MGS3 actually gave Snake his glory back in 2005 and Big Boss most likely isn't a snoozer. If he can beat Raiden after MGS4, then MGS3 has to have some power.

Almost losing to Bowser and completely jobbing against Mario is glory? Snake didn't do **** all until he was announced for Brawl.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/3/2009 3:19:36 PM | message detail
I speculate that some of the Square dominance in 2003-2004 might have been due to more european voters.

Are there any "where do you live" polls from around that time?


Zero almost beat Sonic in 2003.
Crono killed Mario in 2004.

There is no magical "European explosion"
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/3/2009 3:20:42 PM | message detail
Almost losing to Bowser is solid **** factor, and he had the same factor against Frog.

And Bowser ain't no Frog.

He did better against Mario than he did against Mega Man, and Mario was on steroids that year.

Don't be delusional.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/3/2009 3:20:52 PM | message detail
And geolocation is completely useless. All it does is give us some explanation for trends that have been going on for years.

Still oddly interesting though for the strange little regional results you see.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
Calintares | Posted 4/3/2009 3:35:08 PM | message detail
It would be useful if the regional balance of the site were to change. (not that that seem very likely)
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Ours is not to reason why, ours is but to do and die.
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/3/2009 4:54:30 PM | message detail
MGS3 is stronger now because MGS as a whole has gotten stronger since the site shift. Trying to argue against this is nonsense.

And I understand Geolocation overall doesn't change anything, but hey, it's neat!
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/3/2009 4:56:37 PM | message detail
I'm looking forward to the *insert region* screwed over *insert game* complaints after every match, myself.

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/3/2009 5:00:00 PM | message detail
Aw yeah
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/3/2009 5:03:04 PM | message detail
lol games = characters
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/3/2009 5:21:49 PM | message detail
Of course games do not equal characters, but what makes you think MGS has not increased since 2004?

if MGS struggles with Tactics, MGS4 should not have been so close to Brawl.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
Karma Hunter | Posted 4/3/2009 5:32:12 PM | message detail
"Snake completely jobbed against Mario (by which I mean did slightly over 3% worse than Crono, the other finalist), so clearly MGS3 didn't do anything and MGS as a whole is weak!"

"actually Snake improved substantially from 2004 thanks to MGS3"

"well y'know characters don't equal games even though I've been using that exact argument lol"
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/3/2009 5:33:39 PM | message detail
so guys, what kind of strength are we looking at for TF2
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/3/2009 5:34:51 PM | message detail
Games =/= characters, but there is a point to which you could still use characters as a reference point for a game's popularity, Big Boss/Raiden being such an example, I think. Honestly, we don't have any solid (no pun intended) data on MGS3 other than the list (which it beat MGS2 by 20 spots on, if I recall) other than that GOTY performance. MGS3 > MGS2 is more of a gut instinct than anything else, admittedly, but it just feels right.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/3/2009 5:35:12 PM | message detail
L4D at best.

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
charmander6000 | Posted 4/3/2009 5:54:44 PM | message detail
I've finished the first round of the percent of votes that each character gets from each continent.

http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20Percent%20of%20Total%20Votes.xls

I'll do the rest sometime this weekend.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
Submit BOP here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=48529509
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/3/2009 5:57:33 PM | message detail
Thanks! Good work, char!
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/3/2009 6:04:57 PM | message detail
Woah, nice stuff.

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
plasmabeam | Posted 4/3/2009 6:05:10 PM | message detail
You know what just hit me... What was the reasoning behind banning Dracula and Death from the Villains Contest (both have unique personalities that make them Castlevania characters, and not just folklore monsters in a game), while allowing Diablo? If Dracula and "The Grim Reaper" don't qualify as videogame characters, then what makes "The Devil" eligible?

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~Jacksonville Jaguars~
Lopen | Posted 4/3/2009 6:07:21 PM | message detail
Diablo is "the devil" in design only. Death and Dracula have unique personalities but are still much more directly based off of the things from lore.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
Lopen | Posted 4/3/2009 6:11:21 PM | message detail
Though personally I do think Dracula and Death should be eligible as well. I'm just saying Diablo is definitely much further removed from lore than they are. People who haven't played the games need to stop assuming he's "the devil" just cause he rules over hell and looks like your stereotypical devil.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/3/2009 6:23:48 PM | message detail
Let's see...

Characters who got more than 82% of their votes from North America

Geno - 92.48%
Ness - 86.49%
Lucas - 85.33%
Master Chief - 83.16%
Marth - 82.97%
The Dog - 82.74%
Cecil - 82.72%
Jinjo - 82.56%
Falco - 82.35%
Big Daddy - 82.31%
GlaDOS - 82.28%
Raz - 82.17%
Lucario - 82.14%

Characters who got less than 70% of their votes from North America

Nero - 69.39%
Zidane - 69.30%
Crash - 63.43%
Guybrush - 61.26%

Characters who got more than 16.5% of their votes from Europe

Guybrush - 29.65%
Hogger - 23.63%
Crash - 22.74%
Nero - 19.83%
Zidane - 19.26%
Duke Nukem - 18.83%
Kaim - 18.57%
Mudkip - 18.47%
Phoenix Wright - 17.95%
Ocelot - 17.94%
Nathan Drake - 17.78%
Arthas - 17.51%
Edgeworth - 17.50%
Pac-Man - 17.05%
Ammy - 16.87%
Liquid Snake - 16.86%
Chris Redfield - 16.81%
Sonic - 16.68%
Gordon - 16.62%
Raiden - 16.50%

Characters who got less than 10% of their votes from Europe

Zero - 9.32%
Lucas - 9.13%
Ramza - 8.87%
Jade - 8.59%
Ness - 8.06%
Geno - 3.95%

Conclusions: Nintendo does best in America.

MGS, Sonic, and WoW are popular in Europe, and so are the FFs that apparently aren't as popular in the U.S. (FFIX and FFXII).

Phoenix Wright and Guybrush are popular in Europe, too, it would seem.

Cult RPG characters rely heavily on American votes.

Crash seems to be decently popular outside the U.S.

Europe doesn't like Mega Man.

Again, probably worth nothing, but still fun!
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plasmabeam | Posted 4/3/2009 6:30:18 PM | message detail
People who haven't played the games need to stop assuming he's "the devil" just cause he rules over hell and looks like your stereotypical devil.

Fair enough. I've never played D2, so excuse the ignorance on my part.

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~Jacksonville Jaguars~
trannyscience | Posted 4/3/2009 6:32:04 PM | message detail
holy Geno. no wonder SF2 took that slight lead in the dead hours.
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plasmabeam | Posted 4/3/2009 6:49:27 PM | message detail
And did anyone find that hilarious Mario vs. Crono picture with the four guys bursting into joy/outrage as Mario takes the lead around midnight? I asked about it a few days ago, but no one seemed to have it...

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~Jacksonville Jaguars~
Yesmar | Posted 4/3/2009 7:01:39 PM | message detail
Then we all started thinking, "WW couldn't even SFF Prime. W hy in the world is Paper Mario going to do it?"

SFF does not equal LFF. There was no SFF in Bowser/Kirby, but there was certainly LFF if you look at the votals.

As for the MGS games I would guess that the first is the most popular and that for the rest 4 > 2 > 3 although they're probably all fairly close together, and 4 will drop over time as its recency wears off. Having played none of the games past the first, 2 > 3 seems the gut decision for me. MGS2 did do really well in Spring 2004, all things considered, and if the site is shifting towards MGS, it would help out 2 just as much as 3.

And come on guys. While he might be exaggerating, Black Turtle's right that the reason Snake boosted originally was because of Brawl. He might have retained his heights due to a general move towards MGS (although I suspect some of MGS4's performance in January was less MGS franchise votes, and more PS3 voters rallying towards their best game)
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!
HaRRicH | Posted 4/3/2009 7:41:42 PM | message detail
The Solid Snake we know today is because of SSBB/MGS4, yeah (mainly SSBB), but there's no question that Solid in 2004 is not the same Solid we saw in 2005 before any SSBB/MGS4-hype was around. As already mentioned, Solid **** went from ~51% on Frog to 51% on Bowser post-Villain Contest and from ~43% on Mega Man to ~43% on Mario. There was obviously a shift in his favor, and I think it's hard to discredit MGS3 for that.

Also, I'll take MGS3 > MGS2 and not look back. I can't add anything new to the discussion...but BB/Raiden, their general scores on GameFAQs, the Top 100 List, MGS3 getting Subsistence, and the general reception for each of them when they were first released back me up enough to be comfortable. MGS2's sales don't scare me in the face of all that.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/3/2009 8:03:35 PM | message detail
SFF does not equal LFF. There was no SFF in Bowser/Kirby, but there was certainly LFF if you look at the votals.

Holy crap not this again.

SAME FANBASE factor. Meaning SAME FANBASE. This term you made up describes SFF in a multi-way scenario where both parties are hurt and is completely redundant and pointless. There was no "LFF" in Kirby/Bowser (or any other 1v1 for that matter) since there was nothing to take advantage of the SFF.

Of course games do not equal characters, but what makes you think MGS has not increased since 2004?

if MGS struggles with Tactics, MGS4 should not have been so close to Brawl.


JSDF:LJSDGJKHDSKJGHSDKJGH

Aside from what I've already pointed out about that GotY poll, the fact that MGS4 still lost despite having everything pretty much going for it in that poll says that the MGS series isn't going to be boosting anywhere near as high as Snake, and MGS has other obstacles to overcome (TTS being released JUST before the FFT match, FFT getting a remake) that I can't take MGS there without feeling like a tool.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/3/2009 8:06:27 PM | message detail
"having everything pretty much going for it"?

What was that?
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
Yesmar | Posted 4/3/2009 8:17:29 PM | message detail

SAME FANBASE factor. Meaning SAME FANBASE. This term you made up describes SFF in a multi-way scenario where both parties are hurt and is completely redundant and pointless. There was no "LFF" in Kirby/Bowser (or any other 1v1 for that matter) since there was nothing to take advantage of the SFF.


SFF is the relation between two characters' popularities to each other. LFF is their relation in general to the rest of the competition. While Bowser/Kirby did not see any weird performances between the two characters themselves, their popularities in general did drop as was manifested in lower votals.
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/3/2009 8:21:11 PM | message detail
SFF is fanbase overlap, whether it results in a 90-10 beating or a 51-49 match. Low votals are a product of SFF.

Not only are you insisting on using a pointlessly redundant term, but you are now retroactively applying it to situations that happened before the term came to be.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/3/2009 8:21:39 PM | message detail
is black turtle being silly again
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Dilated Chemist | Posted 4/3/2009 8:23:21 PM | message detail
I have MGS losing to OoT and FFX in the Quarterfinals.
I have MGS2 losing to FFX and Vice City in Round 2.
I have MGS3 losing to TP and RE4 in the Division Finals. (SA over MGS3 in Round 2, shocker.)
I have MGS4 losing to OoT and FFX in the Semifinals.

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[ FINAL FOUR ]
FFVII / LoZ: A Link to the Past / LoZ: Ocarina of Time / FFX
The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/3/2009 8:23:23 PM | message detail
The distinction between LFF and SFF is important since they're more specifically describing the situation. You can use SFF as a catch all to describe both, but then you'd have to specify which type you mean afterwards, and that' a pain in the ass. Thus, having 2 terms for ease of understanding not to mention typing is certainly not redundant

Though by definition, you can't call LFF on any 1v1 match.
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.