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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 662

transience | Posted 4/3/2009 11:36:40 AM | message detail
Geolocation is completely and totally useless. it's cool to look at but it means literally nothing. I think everyone knows this but I've seen the stats topic overanalyze stuff to death and change their minds over nothing, so who knows!
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/3/2009 11:37:27 AM | message detail
Awful fun, though.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/3/2009 11:37:38 AM | message detail

From: transience | #151
Geolocation is completely and totally useless. it's cool to look at but it means literally nothing. I think everyone knows this but I've seen the stats topic overanalyze stuff to death and change their minds over nothing, so who knows!


it does mean something. it helps with our trends
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/3/2009 11:43:10 AM | message detail

From: transience | Posted: 4/3/2009 2:36:40 PM | #151
Geolocation is completely and totally useless. it's cool to look at but it means literally nothing. I think everyone knows this but I've seen the stats topic overanalyze stuff to death and change their minds over nothing, so who knows!


I was thinking the same thing. How does knowing what other countries voted for in the past mean anything?
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/3/2009 11:44:55 AM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #154
I was thinking the same thing. How does knowing what other countries voted for in the past mean anything?


Well now we know why Final Fantasy 7 for instance has such a deadly night vote or why Kingdom Hearts ASV is so strong compared to its night vote.
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/3/2009 11:45:47 AM | message detail
It's interesting. Almost useless in terms of predictive value, sure, but so are trends, and we've talked about those for years and years.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/3/2009 11:47:02 AM | message detail

From: MyWorldIsCrono | Posted: 4/3/2009 2:44:55 PM | #155
Well now we know why Final Fantasy 7 for instance has such a deadly night vote or why Kingdom Hearts ASV is so strong compared to its night vote.


You've always known why.
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transience | Posted 4/3/2009 11:48:42 AM | message detail
trends actually matter when the match starts though. they help us predict what will happen in the next few hours. nobody is picking a game because of its trends.
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xyzzy
what's up ryan AHHHHHHHHHHHHH
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/3/2009 12:16:26 PM | message detail
I'm wondering if MGS3 can beat RE4 or if MGS4 can beat it.

We already know Metal Gear is on the rise. We also know they do excellent in this format.

I hate to talk about the century poll for the 110th time, but it just worries me how close San Andreas was to RE4 and how far away it was from FFX. I do believe Nintendo does sap *some* votes from RE4, but not a lot.

I think it's more possible that MGS4 beats it than MGS3, because Galaxy/Brawl will also be in that match. MGS3 > MGS4 as well.


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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/3/2009 12:17:30 PM | message detail
MGS3 is likely the weakest MGS...
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/3/2009 12:18:48 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1825

aww yea mgs3 domination

dunno why people think mgs3 has anything on the other games
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/3/2009 12:24:47 PM | message detail
It's not 2004 anymore.
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*is Dranze*
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/3/2009 12:25:28 PM | message detail
I just like to pop in and say that 92.5% of Geno's votes came from North America. No wonder SMRPG was able to turn a 50/50 match with SFII to an easy 58/42 win.

Also I know these stats mean nothing, but with no contest until Monday we need something to do, plus it's fun to look at.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/3/2009 12:25:42 PM | message detail

From: MarioSuperstar | #162
It's not 2004 anymore.


If MGS3 isn't liked right after its release... why would it be liked any more now?
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ZFS | Posted 4/3/2009 12:26:33 PM | message detail
Seriously Albion

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/3/2009 12:28:26 PM | message detail

From: ZFS | #165
Seriously Albion


you know how gears of war 2 finished in like 4 or 5th in the goty last year? in 5 years i guarantee it'll be the strongest of 'em all!






...now do you see how dumb what you guys are saying is?
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ZFS | Posted 4/3/2009 12:29:11 PM | message detail
Hey if you want to have MGS3 going out in round 1 go for it!

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doth thou desire the power
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/3/2009 12:29:45 PM | message detail
I don't, I have it going to the third round

All I'm saying is that its no where near the strength of the other 3.
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Demon HunterX | Posted 4/3/2009 12:34:58 PM | message detail
there is no question that MGS3 is the weakest out of the main 4. It wasnt released early in a console's lifetime (see MGS2, MGS4), and it isnt the first in the series (MGS). It also doesnt have solid snake. MGS4 is probably the strongest, due to the fact that this generation has seen more casuals than all the other generations put together (you think the PSX made gaming mainstream, then the 360 and wii made it beyond mainstream if thats even possible).

B8 has a hard on for MGS3, thus they refuse to admit it is the weakest in a contest setting.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 4/3/2009 12:35:40 PM | message detail
If MGS3 isn't liked right after its release... why would it be liked any more now?

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3150

If MGS4 isn't liked right after its release, why would it be liked any more now?

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3363

o wate stop talking Albion
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/3/2009 12:36:42 PM | message detail

From: Karma Hunter | #170
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3363


I'd argue that it was more GTA4/Brawl falling then MGS4 gaining strength over time.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 4/3/2009 12:37:25 PM | message detail
there is no question that MGS3 is the weakest out of the main 4. It wasnt released early in a console's lifetime (see MGS2, MGS4), and it isnt the first in the series (MGS). It also doesnt have solid snake. MGS4 is probably the strongest

Bahahahahahaha seriously you guys are killing me here.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/3/2009 12:37:48 PM | message detail
MGS1 is the strongest, followed by 2/4 being about equal, then 3.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 4/3/2009 12:39:46 PM | message detail
I'd argue that it was more GTA4/Brawl falling then MGS4 gaining strength over time.

If GTA4 and Brawl were popular when they first came out, why wouldn't they be popular now?








...see where I'm going here with this line of argument's utter stupidity?
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/3/2009 12:41:10 PM | message detail

From: Karma Hunter | #174
I'd argue that it was more GTA4/Brawl falling then MGS4 gaining strength over time.

If GTA4 and Brawl were popular when they first came out, why wouldn't they be popular now?








...see where I'm going here with this line of argument's utter stupidity?


Yes, I understand. Just I don't see any reason for MGS3 to significantly boost from the point of being tripled by San Andreas and Halo 2 to now being able to compete with a game that gave Brawl a run for its money.
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Demon HunterX | Posted 4/3/2009 12:41:22 PM | message detail
karma hunter, what is your proof that MGS3 isnt the weakest? It sold by far the least amount of copies, it doesnt have solid snake.

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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/3/2009 12:45:44 PM | message detail
It didn't get trippled. 41% on San Andreas when GTA was meant something is pretty good considering that's Snake's worst year yet.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
Demon HunterX | Posted 4/3/2009 12:46:31 PM | message detail
i mean honestly this is absurd. MGS3, to about this date, has sold under 4 million copies on the best console ever made.

MGS4, in half a year, sold 4.5 million copies on a console that more people LOL than the original XBOX.

http://www.gamespot.com/ps2/adventure/mgs3subsistence/news.html?sid=6131345
http://www.psxextreme.com/ps3-news/4569.html
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/3/2009 12:46:59 PM | message detail
Also, look at Big Boss. Both years. He straight out owned Kirby who was fresh out of Brawl and owned the **** out of Raiden.

There's no way MGS3 isn't stronger than MGS2. How much stronger is debatable.. but it ain't the weakest.
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*is Dranze*
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/3/2009 12:47:32 PM | message detail

From: MarioSuperstar | #177
It didn't get trippled. 41% on San Andreas when GTA was meant something is pretty good considering that's Snake's worst year yet.


uhh... 41%? More like 30% if my math is right
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Karma Hunter | Posted 4/3/2009 12:48:06 PM | message detail
2k4 GotY San Andreas beats down 2k8 GotY Brawl. No question about that - it's GTA's falling off the face of the earth that makes Brawl win now, nothing more.

MGS3, firstly, doesn't end up tripled by San Andreas in any sense of the word when you fast-forward to the actual GotY poll (because it got more popular maybe wow whoda thunk?): http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1872 . Moving from a tripling to 41% on San Andreas is already a huge improvement just over a span of less than a year. Then take into account that 2004 was by far the worst year for MGS, that MGS3 has aged well with the fanbase, its performance on the list evidencing that the core fans like it a LOT...

...am I forgetting something? Oh, yeah - if MGS4's power comes on franchise votes, why the HELL would that come into play against an installment that the fanbase has actually played?
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/3/2009 12:48:08 PM | message detail
I got my 41% from PS2 game of the year 2004.

MGS just seems like one of those games that needs time before it hits the peak of its strength.
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*is Dranze*
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/3/2009 12:48:18 PM | message detail

From: MarioSuperstar | #179
Also, look at Big Boss. Both years. He straight out owned Kirby who was fresh out of Brawl and owned the **** out of Raiden.

There's no way MGS3 isn't stronger than MGS2. How much stronger is debatable.. but it ain't the weakest.


...Boss only does good if he has a Snake pic cuz people think he's snake. Using Boss as a reason isn't kinda laugable.
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ZFS | Posted 4/3/2009 12:48:38 PM | message detail
MGS3 is a very different game from the others in its series. It didn't come roaring out of the gate with huge hype like MGS4 did it -- in fact, it ended up overshadowed by GTA and Halo back then -- but it definitely grew over time. You check any favorites list, be it here or elsewhere, and MGS3 is almost always the second most popular game behind MGS1. Looking back at any polls from 2004 isn't going to tell you much about how popular it is. MGS3 love is far from a board 8 thing.

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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/3/2009 12:49:58 PM | message detail
2k4 GotY San Andreas beats down 2k8 GotY Brawl.

Actually I never thought about this.

MGS3 > Brawl?!!?!
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*is Dranze*
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/3/2009 12:51:14 PM | message detail

From: MyWorldIsCrono | #183
...Boss only does good if he has a Snake pic cuz people think he's snake. Using Boss as a reason isn't kinda laugable.


I honestly don't think that's the case anymore if you ask me.

Give him a pic where he looks like his MGS3 self compared to some art from the Metal Gear games nobody's played, and of course he'll do better.

I don't think voters are that dumb.
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*is Dranze*
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Demon HunterX | Posted 4/3/2009 12:51:38 PM | message detail
MGS3 is a very different game from the others in its series. It didn't come roaring out of the gate with huge hype like MGS4 did it -- in fact, it ended up overshadowed by GTA and Halo back then -- but it definitely grew over time. You check any favorites list, be it here or elsewhere, and MGS3 is almost always the second most popular game behind MGS1. Looking back at any polls from 2004 isn't going to tell you much about how popular it is. MGS3 love is far from a board 8 thing.

uh, not really. MGS2 has aged the best out of any of the MGS games, that isnt even really debatable. Most people said how MGS2 was terrible after first completing it. Now looking back on it people are saying its their favorite one (hell, ive always preached 2 > 1 > 3 = 4).

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/3/2009 12:51:56 PM | message detail
It doesn't matter though, MGS3 won't be facing MGS4. RE4/TP are theo nes getting out of that division.
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ZFS | Posted 4/3/2009 12:52:24 PM | message detail
i mean honestly this is absurd. MGS3, to about this date, has sold under 4 million copies on the best console ever made. MGS4, in half a year, sold 4.5 million copies on a console that more people LOL than the original XBOX.

MGS4's sales are pretty impressive all things considered, but bringing it closer to home -- MGS3 sold 1.3 million in the States, MGS4 sold 1.4 million. There's not a big difference there, especially on a site like this where more people have probably played MGS3 despite MGS4 having sold more.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/3/2009 12:52:54 PM | message detail

From: MarioSuperstar | #186
I honestly don't think that's the case anymore if you ask me.

Give him a pic where he looks like his MGS3 self compared to some art from the Metal Gear games nobody's played, and of course he'll do better.

I don't think voters are that dumb.


He went from blowing out Kirby with the Snake pic, to losing to Master Chief with the weakest MGS character in the poll that likely didn't hurt him THAT much.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 4/3/2009 12:53:59 PM | message detail
i mean honestly this is absurd. MGS3, to about this date, has sold under 4 million copies on the best console ever made.

MGS4, in half a year, sold 4.5 million copies on a console that more people LOL than the original XBOX.


Ignoring the fact that these are worldwide sales and that you seem to discount Subsistence's ACTUAL influence entirely - better start using sales to predict Chrono Trigger v Chrono Cross!

...Boss only does good if he has a Snake pic cuz people think he's snake.

BB went out last year in all of his old man glory, decimating Raiden and beating Master Chief until the day vote hit. He would've won that match outright without Raiden holding him back. What?
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/3/2009 12:55:52 PM | message detail
Yeah I'm pretty sure if you remove Raiden, Boss would have got first.

RE4/TP are theo nes getting out of that division.

It's a good possibility that MGS3 can beat RE4 if it is truly damaged by TP.

It just depends on where you think MGS3's level of strength is, and if it's anything like Brawl's, it's a good possibility.

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Demon HunterX | Posted 4/3/2009 12:57:19 PM | message detail
Ignoring the fact that these are worldwide sales and that you seem to discount Subsistence's ACTUAL influence entirely - better start using sales to predict Chrono Trigger v Chrono Cross!

CT and CC is apples and oranges at this point, especially compared to a series that has a connecting story like MGS1, 2, 3 and 4.

I mean Crono Cross has next to NO relation to Crono Trigger. How is that an even valid argument?

MGS3 is the weakest in popularity. Maybe not amongst the hardcore MGS fans, but amogst ALL gamers who vote in these contests.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/3/2009 12:58:24 PM | message detail
RE4 is the one game safe in that match... if anything, TP is the one in danger of being knocked out.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/3/2009 12:59:00 PM | message detail
We've already seen what Serge could do, and we know CC isn't going to be worth much.

Meanwhile, MGS3 actually gave Snake his glory back in 2005 and Big Boss most likely isn't a snoozer. If he can beat Raiden after MGS4, then MGS3 has to have some power.
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Demon HunterX | Posted 4/3/2009 12:59:50 PM | message detail
also, tons of people who bought MGS3 subsistence are either

1) rebuying the game, for extra stuff
2) first getting into the series, and probably wouldnt have even voted for MGS3 anyway due to the fact that this is a 4 way contest meaning theres less of "ill vote for this just because there isnt a better option today".
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/3/2009 1:00:16 PM | message detail
Are we seriously considering MGS2s strength by using Raiden

Really?
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/3/2009 1:01:35 PM | message detail
Well, combining it with other stuff such as the list (I hate using it, but this is one of those times where it means something).

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*is Dranze*
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ZFS | Posted 4/3/2009 1:02:16 PM | message detail
Here's something that may be worse than The List (!), but this whole idea that MGS3 is the least liked game is pretty off. IGN did a 'Readers top 100' last year and here's what happened -- again, this isn't meant to prove anything, necessarily, but if people want something then...

5) Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater (PS2)
6) Super Metroid (SNES)
7) Goldeneye 007 (N64)
8) Metal Gear Solid (PS1)
9) Resident Evil 4 (GCN)

21) Super Mario Galaxy (Wii)
22) Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots (PS3)

55) Metroid Prime 3: Corruption (Wii)
56) Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty (PS2)

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WarThaHedgehog | Posted 4/3/2009 1:03:29 PM | message detail
Prime 3 > MGS2? Ouch.