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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 662

MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/2/2009 7:29:22 PM | message detail
and FFX barely doubling FFTA.. doesn't make it look too powerful, either.
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/2/2009 7:31:42 PM | message detail
We have no idea how strong Shenmue and Skies of Arcadia are compared to each other. Fodder is a wide range. And FFT also came within 38 votes of MGS back in 2004, so don't dismiss FFTA as necessarily super weak.
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SonicRaptor | Posted 4/2/2009 7:33:01 PM | message detail

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #094
I'd like to know where all this MGS2 confidence is coming from. Do people think that just because Snake no longer sucks that all the MGS games are going to explode?


MGS4 gave a really massive boost to the series and thus the individual games in this contest. Here is a game that was universally loved, did very well in the last GOTY poll despite being a PS3-exclusive, sold very well and almost a year later is still thought very highly. That last part is very crucial. There are far too many hyped games that get 10's and millions in sales...but a year later drop off the map (GTA4). MGS4 was six months old when that GOTY poll was held and finished a very close second to SSBB.

I think MGS2 got a boost, not a huge one, but enough to give it an edge this year.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/2/2009 7:34:32 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | Posted: 4/2/2009 7:59:31 PM | #020
I understand people arguing "standout factor" and all that, but it doesn't always pan out that way (Remember people saying Ness was going to beat Liquid/Alucard/Zidane in 2007 because he was Nintendo against three PSX characters?). MGS2 is different enough to avoid that problem anyway.


I recall being the only Crew member to call that match correctly, for what it's worth <_<

I hate admitting this as an EarthBound honk (PLAY IT), but Ness is effin weak. I don't know the stats offhand, but wouldn't he get doubled by like all those characters? I'm not sure if any of the three games break 60% on Metroid Prime 1v1.

For the record, I hope I'm wrong given I like FFX and MGS2 more.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/2/2009 7:36:43 PM | message detail

From: trannyscience | Posted: 4/2/2009 10:14:03 PM | #078
it's weird, nobody was even entertaining Prime until like a week ago; now it seems to almost be the consensus. I think it might be a case of stats topic overthinking.


I've had Prime in second place there for ages, wtf
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RPGuy96 | Posted 4/2/2009 7:37:27 PM | message detail
I would certainly dismiss FFTA as super weak, especially against FFX. But I don't think that's terribly relevant today in any case.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/2/2009 7:38:58 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | Posted: 4/2/2009 10:22:21 PM | #085
FFX/WW may or may not have been close in 2004 depending on just how much Starcraft improved from round 3 to round 4, but I don't think it'd have any trouble with it today. I'd guess FFX beats Prime worse than 60-40 today.


I *highly* doubt that match would have been closer than 53-47. Wind Waker was counter-rallied to insane levels in a very low-scoring match. Final Fantasy X would have easily beaten any game in the top half of that division except Starcraft.
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Yesmar | Posted 4/2/2009 7:52:01 PM | message detail
I hate admitting this as an EarthBound honk (PLAY IT), but Ness is effin weak. I don't know the stats offhand, but wouldn't he get doubled by like all those characters?

Ness wasn't even doubled by Auron, so I doubt it.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/2/2009 7:54:15 PM | message detail
He's actually not to far behind them..
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/2/2009 7:57:49 PM | message detail
If WW/FFX happened in '04, it would have been close. Now, I'd give it to FFX 60/40

It would be close, but FFX would never be in danger of losing.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/2/2009 7:58:41 PM | message detail

From: Yesmar | Posted: 4/2/2009 10:52:01 PM | #108
I hate admitting this as an EarthBound honk (PLAY IT), but Ness is effin weak. I don't know the stats offhand, but wouldn't he get doubled by like all those characters?

Ness wasn't even doubled by Auron, so I doubt it.


True enough!
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/2/2009 8:31:23 PM | message detail
No, but close enough that Metroid Prime is within striking distance with KH/MGS2 there hurting FFX.
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Lopen | Posted 4/2/2009 8:54:14 PM | message detail
Wow those regional poll things are so cool when did those happen?

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3298&region=ASI

Man they weren't kidding when they said Asia loves their bishounen.
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Lopen | Posted 4/2/2009 8:56:21 PM | message detail
I recall being the only Crew member to call that match correctly, for what it's worth <_<

Bah. Two of us had Alucard > Liquid too you know! That ought to count!

... I think two of us.
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Lopen | Posted 4/2/2009 9:19:34 PM | message detail
Dammit. Looking through these regional results just makes me want a contest where only one region can vote.

Asia seems to be the best, despite their fodderizing of Master Chief. Cloud >>> Snake >>>>> Link > Crono for last year's result sign me up.

Of course, Link would've been eliminated the round before by Crono and Mario, too. O' Asia you are amazing.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/2/2009 9:22:42 PM | message detail
Man, Canada really loves Kirby for some reason
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
ZFS | Posted 4/2/2009 9:24:00 PM | message detail
more like eliminated by Zack and MMX !

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Lopen | Posted 4/2/2009 9:31:42 PM | message detail
Finals in Asia... Cloud, Dante, Zack... Mega Man X?

I can live with this.
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Calintares | Posted 4/2/2009 10:31:10 PM | message detail
Who would win in a match in Asia, Zack or Vincent?
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/2/2009 11:14:18 PM | message detail
I forgot if it was BT or Leonhart (my immediate deepest apologies to Leonhart for this confusion!), but whoever said EB > SMW2:YI's only evidence is the SNES-VC poll is wrong for three reasons.



1) I don't care a bit that EB was close to CT in that poll (though it's nice CT is in their battle's poll), but EB smoked SMK and MMX -- two games it shouldn't have based on what we knew of EB and thought of MMX/SMK, period -- despite a poll filled with RPGs. There's a valid point to be made that most of the other games have ports while EB doesn't, but EB blew those two out all the same. Besides, SMK doesn't have a port. If people think SMK could cost SM against Sonic 3 or even place OR have MMX advancing over LoZ:LA, they shouldn't immediately dismiss EB against SMW2:YI.


2) http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/top10.html

How many games can beat a game that's forty-five spots ahead of it and is not a write-in? You could probably make a case for F-Zero > Fire Emblem or FF > HL...but that's it. Even if you want to say EB's hardcore fanbase put it abnormally high (which would be something to look out for in this format), SMW2:YI was beaten by a write-in (ToS, though only by one spot) and was in the bottom third of games in the drop-down box for the Top 100 List. I know it's a format we don't exactly agree with, but do you think a format change would allow a mistake of that caliber, especially since they're both SNES/Nintendo games?

(You can also combine the first two points by saying SMK beat SMW2:YI on the Top 100 List by twenty-one spots, yet EB beat SMK 60-40 there.)


3) Though you can't expect a lot from SMW2:YI in polls when it's treated as a port or against every Mario game, it has never looked impressive in any of them. It's hard to see it SFF'd much either, due to how unique it is. It would do better than those SMB-polls suggest, but SMW2:YI has been largely forgotten by the fanbase too in regards to their favorite games.



There is the point that it's three SNES-RPGs against a Mario-game, but EB wasn't exactly phased in the SNES-VC poll and being a Mario game hasn't helped SMW2:YI in a poll to date yet. To say EB > SMW2:YI's only evidence is the SNES-VC poll is unfair, especially since the assumption is people are impressed by EB getting close to CT. That's the weakest part of any EB > SMW2:YI argument.
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Lopen | Posted 4/2/2009 11:20:18 PM | message detail
Whoa there HaRRicH arguing about his favorite bulbous headed kid and his paraphernalia again who would've thought.
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Lopen | Posted 4/2/2009 11:24:19 PM | message detail
In all seriousness though-- given normal circumstances I would consider EB there. But it's Yoshi's Island and three RPGs. Seems like a reason enough to write it off I think.
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/2/2009 11:31:58 PM | message detail
Haha, I can't stand that I give Ness/EB so much benefit of the doubt. Why can't I just back my favorites?!

(wishing for smw2 > ct aw yeah)
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Prototype
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/2/2009 11:33:56 PM | message detail
In all seriousness though-- given normal circumstances I would consider EB there. But it's Yoshi's Island and three RPGs. Seems like a reason enough to write it off I think.

True. But Chrono Trigger will be sucking up a lot of percentage, and Lufia II just won't amount to much. (Or at least, it shouldn't.)
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Calintares | Posted 4/2/2009 11:46:04 PM | message detail
Is it possible that part of the KHF in 2003 was actually a "Europe gets more involved with the contest factor"? it would benefit the same characters, and it would also explain why KH itself performed so bad in 2004, as the europeans hate it.
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Ours is not to reason why, ours is but to do and die.
Gaddswell | Posted 4/2/2009 11:51:04 PM | message detail

From: Lopen | #113
Wow those regional poll things are so cool when did those happen?


I'm wondering the same thing. Where did these come from all of a sudden?
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/3/2009 2:57:21 AM | message detail
I just can't figure out why in the world Squall and Sora don't LFF each other. It just doesn't make any sense.

Not all Final Fantasy characters have to have Cloud > Squall beatdown matches. See: Vincent > Squall.
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greatone10 | Posted 4/3/2009 3:42:00 AM | message detail
One thing about that Virtual Console poll.

Earthbound is pretty much the perfect entrant for it. Lots of people have not played about, but they have at least heard about it due to the SSB series. I mean, I would surmise the reason that it gets so many votes is due to people who haven't played it and may be interested in doing so for 800 Wii Points.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/3/2009 4:42:21 AM | message detail
The past couple of days, I've been thinking "What happened to Paper Mario LFFing Metroid Prime out in Round 1?"

Then we all started thinking, "WW couldn't even SFF Prime. Why in the world is Paper Mario going to do it?"

And I agree with greatone about Earthbound. The Virtual Console poll isn't about popularity. Earthbound is not an easily accessible or widely played game (if you don't emulate anyway), but Earthbound fans talk about it a lot. It's not a surprise that a lot of people may vote that they want to play it.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/3/2009 4:54:49 AM | message detail
And you can't honestly use the list against Yoshi's Island. It has plenty of Mario games to fight. Earthbound had to fight nothing.

The only polls we've seen it is was as a port and you can't honestly say it sucks because of a port because EVERY port game will suck.

I think it'll beat Earthbound by simply having Super Mario World in the title.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/3/2009 4:57:31 AM | message detail
And the fact that HaRR is arguing so fervently for it, too! Seriously, ever since he's started arguing for Ness, he's sucked!
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/3/2009 5:06:56 AM | message detail
Heck, you could use the list to justify Mario RPG > RE2 because it made it high despite so many RPG's and Mario games being so far ahead of it... or is it?


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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/3/2009 5:16:41 AM | message detail
Does anybody even know how many people filled out that list thing anyhow?
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/3/2009 5:27:51 AM | message detail

From: greatone10 | Posted: 4/3/2009 6:42:00 AM | #126
One thing about that Virtual Console poll.

Earthbound is pretty much the perfect entrant for it. Lots of people have not played about, but they have at least heard about it due to the SSB series. I mean, I would surmise the reason that it gets so many votes is due to people who haven't played it and may be interested in doing so for 800 Wii Points.


This logic also works against Majora's Mask.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/3/2009 5:55:30 AM | message detail
Plenty of people have actually played that game. I think, anyway.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/3/2009 7:39:11 AM | message detail
Hey I don't deny MM having potential, but beating Pokemon RBY or Final Fantasy Tactics strikes me as kinda nuts. Like when everyone expected Raiden to be some beast.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/3/2009 8:05:18 AM | message detail
Hey, Raiden is popular in the Philippines!

And there's nothing nuts about a Zelda game beating a Pokemon game or a third tier Final Fantasy, even if the Zelda game is also third tier. People are overhyping R/B/Y to death, I think.
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ffmasterjose | Posted 4/3/2009 8:07:07 AM | message detail
I'm honestly not too comfortable with my upset pick of RBY > Majora's Mask but I just don't have too much stock in MM. It's like the younger brother of that really cool guy everyone likes, always overshadowed and no one cares about him too much >_>. ZELDAFEAR is really the only thing that's making me feel shaky about it.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/3/2009 8:22:39 AM | message detail
I wonder if this would be something worth pursuing with the Geolocation thing: Checking out the percentage of votes that each character got from each region. Not all regions are worth pursuing due to low vote totals, but...

Let's use Snake/Vivi/Zero/Hayabusa for an example:

North America

Hayabusa - 79.17%
Zero - 79.22%
Solid Snake - 74.55%
Vivi - 74.44%

Europe

Hayabusa - 13.75%
Zero - 8.84%
Solid Snake - 16.61%
Vivi - 17.76%

United States

Hayabusa - 68.07%
Zero - 65.53%
Solid Snake - 62.79%
Vivi - 63.19%

Canada

Hayabusa - 9.23%
Zero - 10.83%
Solid Snake - 9.76%
Vivi - 10.16%

UK

Hayabusa - 5.54%
Zero - 2.20%
Solid Snake - 7.28%
Vivi - 7.60%

Does this tell us anything? Is it helpful at all? Not sure.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/3/2009 8:26:51 AM | message detail
It just tells us Europe hates Mega Man lol
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/3/2009 8:34:08 AM | message detail
Well, Zero and Hayabusa both got 5% more of their votes from NA than Snake and Vivi did. Hayabusa gets the lowest chunk outside the U.S. while Snake gets the highest.
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/3/2009 8:53:09 AM | message detail
It'd be interesting, I just did the first match only using continents. The favourites of each continent compare to others are...

North America - Cecil
South America - Jade
Europe - Wario
Asia - Jade
Oceania - Zack
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/3/2009 8:56:18 AM | message detail
Not only do we have WoW game fuel

http://www.blogcdn.com/www.wowinsider.com/media/2009/03/hungry-man-lionchops-small.jpg

Fear the hungry man meal factor
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/3/2009 9:20:51 AM | message detail
I've done the first four matches

http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20Percent%20of%20Total%20Votes.xls

Any comments?

Also Europe gave Guybrush almost 30% of his total votes despite only 14.5% of the votes came from there.
Luke fon Fabre received 9% from Asia despite only 3.3% of votes originate there.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/3/2009 9:32:46 AM | message detail
How about this?! Donkey Kong VS. Tony Romo

Battle of the choke artists GOGOGO
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/3/2009 9:34:54 AM | message detail
Heh, if that's true charmander, then Guybrush could potentially boost.

There have been more Europeans than.. back then.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/3/2009 10:00:50 AM | message detail
heh, I was thinking just now, but if Sonic and Mega Man share any kind of split, MK could get through (if it's close enough to them).

Just a possibility I never thought about. I'm sure no MM anything would SFF any Sonic anything, but that doesn't mean they don't share any similar fans at all.
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*is Dranze*
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/3/2009 11:15:54 AM | message detail
The Europeans could push Secret of Monkey Island into round 2!
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/3/2009 11:16:41 AM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #148
The Europeans could push Secret of Monkey Island into round 2!


This would be awesome.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/3/2009 11:22:24 AM | message detail
Good work, charmander!

Huh, nearly 40% of Guybrush's support came from outside North America. That's a lot. Over 1/4 of the Duke's support comes from outside North America. Why is he popular in Europe, I wonder? Zidane got nearly 20% of his support from Europe, too. Out of your data from the first division, Cecil, Marth, and Lucario have the heaviest North American base, while Guybrush, Zidane, and Duke have the smallest.

This could be interesting to look at. I don't know how much it's worth, but it's neat!
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