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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 661

HaRRicH | Posted 4/2/2009 12:46:34 AM | message detail
FF8 definitely deserves credit for, well, never getting the credit it deserves. That said, SC probably would have beaten FFX in 2004 and this format favors Starcraft without question; it would have either had to drop or let Half-Life affect it enough to let FF8 beat it now. There's also LoZ:OoT in that match, so everybody's going to scramble for scraps...but again, this format favors Starcraft and rallying will still be a factor (though probably not like it was in 2004).

HL should be stronger now than 2004, sure, and they share being on PC. Still, that feels like a stretch to say it costs Starcraft a match. They're quite different in nature, the effectiveness of rallying being increased should keep Starcraft safe from HL's presence, and if SB doesn't do anything about cheat votes then HL doesn't matter at all.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/2/2009 12:46:37 AM | message detail
oh lord I'm starting to convince myself to do something crazy
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
ZFS | Posted 4/2/2009 12:46:42 AM | message detail
I wouldn't take FFVIII over FFX. If there's one non-FFVII game that shouldn't be doubted, I think it's FFX. The game has aged incredibly well -- there's no shortage of people who think it's the best FF. I'd expect it to be the second strongest game in the series nowadays. It probably got hit just as hard by FFVII as VIII did in those favorite polls, too. There's a reason why most people with FFX in the finals still go with VII to win!

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doth thou desire the power
transience | Posted 4/2/2009 12:46:53 AM | message detail
FF8's a cute pick but it needs a LOT to go right, and one thing it does not have is the full support of the fanbase. there are FF8 fans that will franchise vote, but there are a lot of Final Fantasy fans that will not vote FF8.
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xyzzy
what's up ryan AHHHHHHHHHHHHH
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/2/2009 12:52:06 AM | message detail
FF8's a cute pick but it needs a LOT to go right, and one thing it does not have is the full support of the fanbase. there are FF8 fans that will franchise vote, but there are a lot of Final Fantasy fans that will not vote FF8.

It really only needs Half-Life to make it through - then it all becomes about its own strength. Also, I've considered the love-it/hate-it relationship (that's one of the things that have kept me from pulling the trigger). However, I think it's greatly minimized when you have the #2 juggernaut in Ocarina right there to eat up percentage. All things considered, it probably is FFVIII's most perfect opponent, as it minimizes the effect of the FFVIII haters while increasing the affect of the FFVIII die-hards. Of course, that is unless you think Ocarina can bust some insane SFF on VIII, which I'd buy cuz damn that game is good.
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Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/8zkzm1.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
HaRRicH | Posted 4/2/2009 12:54:14 AM | message detail
For as perfect of an opponent LoZ:OoT may be for FF8, it's just as good for Starcraft since the battle for second will be easier to rally for.

Nobody better call for LoZ:OoT to SFF Starcraft based on the N64-port though...!
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
transience | Posted 4/2/2009 12:54:17 AM | message detail
t really only needs Half-Life to make it through - then it all becomes about its own strength.

no, it also needs FFT not to go through. and then it needs FF10 to not go through.

However, I think it's greatly minimized when you have the #2 juggernaut in Ocarina right there to eat up percentage.

I would agree with this -- except, y'know, there's an even bigger recipient here, Starcraft. FF8's fate has everything to do with who the fourth is in that match. it needs Half-Life.
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xyzzy
what's up ryan AHHHHHHHHHHHHH
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/2/2009 12:58:46 AM | message detail
no, it also needs FFT not to go through. and then it needs FF10 to not go through.

FFT is a good point; I didn't even think of that. However, while I don't know jack about the older game, I don't see why it's set in stone that VIII can't beat X.

Ocarina/SSBM/VIII/X

Melee gets smashed (lolol), whichever Final Fantasy holds on for dear life moves on.
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Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/8zkzm1.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/2/2009 12:59:39 AM | message detail
And yes, this is a completely dead argument if Gordon drops the ball in Round 1.
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Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/8zkzm1.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
ZFS | Posted 4/2/2009 1:00:07 AM | message detail
Don't know why you think FFVIII could win that one. I mean, I guess it could if you think anything can happen, but I'd sooner expect FFX to take the lion share of support before I would FFVIII to win.

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doth thou desire the power
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/2/2009 1:02:32 AM | message detail
I'd definitely side with X there, but I'd still give VIII a plausible shot because it's always hung on well in those Favorite FF polls. The fact that no one from that game other than Squall has seen a contest is disconcerting, though.
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Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/8zkzm1.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
HaRRicH | Posted 4/2/2009 1:04:35 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2516

Pull the trigger, yo! =)
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
transience | Posted 4/2/2009 1:05:11 AM | message detail
if you're gonna do characters, do Squall pre-KH to Auron pre-KH2.
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xyzzy
what's up ryan AHHHHHHHHHHHHH
ZFS | Posted 4/2/2009 1:05:28 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2593

It was a decent distance from FFX there. Nothing it couldn't potentially make up without FFVII there, but FFX takes a big hit from VII being there, too. Everything else pretty much points in FFX's favor as well.

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doth thou desire the power
HaRRicH | Posted 4/2/2009 1:07:01 AM | message detail
It's not a comparison to be taken seriously, I assure you.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
Karma Hunter | Posted 4/2/2009 1:13:39 AM | message detail
It's nigh impossible to make a really apt comparison for pre-KH Squall as compared to pre-KH2 Auron, though... while we often had only bad reads to go on for Auron pre-KH2 (I think he was behind SFF literally EVERY year), we at least had a handful of diverse matches to draw upon - Tails, Scorpion, Ness, Ganondorf. Pre-KH Squall got doubled by Snake, and that's all she wrote.

I can see FF8 getting up up in that FF6/FFX range... but I feel it's going to be held back ultimately in the same way MGS2 would (theoretically) against MGS3. We're so far removed from the hate back in its heyday, but there's going to be a non-trivial FF fanbase that will simply not side with it.
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
transience | Posted 4/2/2009 1:19:09 AM | message detail
yeah, I wasn't saying it seriously. FF8 will do fine; I have it topping Starcraft. but when you put it against another FF title, said anti-fanbase has something to side with and it won't be kind to FF8.
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xyzzy
what's up ryan AHHHHHHHHHHHHH
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 4/2/2009 1:22:22 AM | message detail
I just don't see how people can put FF8 on Melee levels. Because that's what it's gonna take to beat Starcraft of course.
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
Dilated Chemist | Posted 4/2/2009 1:49:40 AM | message detail
Melee would destroy Starcraft now.

LOL 2004 Stats.

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Final Four
Final Fantasy VII / Super Mario Bros. 3 / The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time / Metal Gear Solid
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/2/2009 2:21:39 AM | message detail
I was debating FF8 > Starcraft, but FF8 gets anti-voted to holy hell.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Diablo 2, Lunar: SSSC
Dilated Chemist | Posted 4/2/2009 2:27:54 AM | message detail
Things change. I'm banking on FF8 upsetting Starcraft with Half-Life in the poll in Round 2.

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Final Four
Final Fantasy VII / Super Mario Bros. 3 / The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time / Metal Gear Solid
greatone10 | Posted 4/2/2009 2:57:00 AM | message detail
I can't help but feel Starcraft is being overrated just a tad. It will do well in this contest, but I don't take it to beat Wind Waker and Melee again. Besides, we have already seen what momentum can do for characters last contest, so I don't see why that would change for games.
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Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09.
vs. Super Mario RPG, Goldeneye, Resident Evil 2. Ugh, my top 3 games in the same match.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/2/2009 4:05:04 AM | message detail
Brawl is still as strong (if not stronger) than Melee

Probably the most idiotic statement in the whole post, Turtle.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/2/2009 4:16:48 AM | message detail
eople say Brawl had "backlash", but I think that's way overblown since it's basically the competitive "serious business" Smash community complaining because the game took a step in the right direction.

I actually talk to many non-competitive smash fans and even they dislike the game.

I really doubt another Wii <x> game would really make Wii lose to PS3 in the next year. The Wii was always getting these kinda games even in 2007.

Anyway, as far as Starcraft and FF8 goes, I'll go with FF8. For one, Starcraft is overated in 2004 if you even just look at the states. Too many games are close together and Melee probably overperformed on FF7 due to all that mishap.

The only match I'll give Starcraft a legit win is Halo and maybe KH (though that's not saying a lot still). I already think FF8 is stronger than it by a tad and adding Half-Life to the mix only makes it better even if you don't think they'll split up; Even a small split is enough for FF8 to get a win there.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
Dilated Chemist | Posted 4/2/2009 4:21:14 AM | message detail
What are the chances COD4 adances with Brawl (or Galaxy, whichever) over MGS4 and Fallout 3 (or Halo 3, whichever) in Round 3?

It's something that I just thought about.

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Final Four
Final Fantasy VII / Super Mario Bros. 3 / The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time / Metal Gear Solid
The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/2/2009 4:22:55 AM | message detail
If you think Brawl and Galaxy are up in the air then COD4 shouldn't be considered since Galaxy freaking smashed the hell out of it and Brawl almost lost to MGS4 in their respective GotY polls
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
Dilated Chemist | Posted 4/2/2009 4:28:49 AM | message detail
I'm placing that beat down of COD4 as simple series voting.

Brawl and Galaxy are gonna split, no doubt, but I think Brawl is just way more popular than Galaxy. And popularity is what it's all about. Just check out the difference of board traffic between Brawl and Galaxy. Wow. It has it's own damn community.

Plus the whole Nintendo family being in Brawl brings every Nintendo series fan to swing votes in Brawl's favor. Just my stupid way of thinking, mind you.

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Final Four
Final Fantasy VII / Super Mario Bros. 3 / The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time / Metal Gear Solid
Dilated Chemist | Posted 4/2/2009 4:30:06 AM | message detail
MGS4 in the GOTY poll was series voting as well. Tell me how in the hell does MGS4 do so well when majority of the people here don't even OWN a PS3? Hmm, fishy.

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Final Four
Final Fantasy VII / Super Mario Bros. 3 / The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time / Metal Gear Solid
Dilated Chemist | Posted 4/2/2009 4:31:32 AM | message detail
And that just answers my own question. MGS4 > COD4 because of series voting.

Nevermind!

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Final Four
Final Fantasy VII / Super Mario Bros. 3 / The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time / Metal Gear Solid
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/2/2009 4:34:35 AM | message detail
Brawl has a community but so did Melee. A lot of games have a community but you still wouldn't take them over games that don't warrant much discussion.

Galaxy isn't a game you discuss. It's a game you play on your own and enjoy on your own. That doesn't mean it's weak and forgotten.

And I find it silly that you would take CoD4 over Brawl because of series voting when we all know it's obvious that Smash is the bigger series as is Mario but I hope you're just kidding.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
Dilated Chemist | Posted 4/2/2009 4:36:12 AM | message detail
No, I never said COD4 > Brawl or Melee. WTF?

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Final Four
Final Fantasy VII / Super Mario Bros. 3 / The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time / Metal Gear Solid
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/2/2009 6:36:23 AM | message detail
FFVIII's one I've been thinking about for a while. It's risky, and kinda unlikely, but that could make it all the way to the quarterfinals if things fall into place for it -- FFIX and FFT not being in round 2 and 3, specifically. FFVIII vs. MGS might seem like it goes to Metal Gear, but I'd expect most of the bigger FF games to give it problems. Don't think I'll take it, but I wouldn't be surprised if it happened!

And hey, if FFX gets knocked out in round 2, even better!

I was debating FF8 > Starcraft, but FF8 gets anti-voted

How do you anti-vote in this format? Admittedly, the hate for FFVIII is always going to be a problem for it, but it still has its lion's share of fans.

But I agree with tranny. FFVIII could either go out in round 1 or go really far, but it needs like the absolute PERFECT storm to do so. It needs something to fall its way in like every match. Everything in its path depends on what's not there.

Which makes predicting its path an absolute pain.

I just don't see how people can put FF8 on Melee levels. Because that's what it's gonna take to beat Starcraft of course.

StarCraft was getting rallied/cheated like crazy at that point. All you've gotta do is ask yourself if FFVIII could beat Halo if you want to know if it can beat StarCraft.

The answer to that question is "Yes."
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/2/2009 6:57:01 AM | message detail
...I guess FF8 could go out in round 1, but I still can't trust Soul Calibur...
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/2/2009 7:00:04 AM | message detail
Yeah, I don't expect it to happen, but with Xenogears there, it's hard to say.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/2/2009 7:02:09 AM | message detail
Yeah, I don't expect it to happen, but with Xenogears there, it's hard to say.

That's the problem. Xenogears and Soul Calibur should have dropped since 2004 (especially the latter, seeing as it hasn't done anything to validate its showing against Kingdom Hearts), but who knows...
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
The Mana Sword | Posted 4/2/2009 7:04:02 AM | message detail
Xenogears'll still probably hold up pretty well. It's always done decent in polls and Fei didn't do too shabby last year. It won't move on or anything like that, but it could definitely screw over FF8.
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Kleenex...at work!
Karma Hunter | Posted 4/2/2009 7:12:09 AM | message detail
Fei looked alright last year, but that was due a LOT to the competition - two/three way Nintendo SFF and a heaping helping of Sore Thumb Factor is pretty much the best way you can look while you go out. Xenogears might have been able to make a wave or two had it been in a different position, but with the way it got dismantled by FF7 back in 2k4 I would hesitate to expect it to stand up to FF8.
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
red sox 777 | Posted 4/2/2009 7:15:05 AM | message detail
This format ought to help Starcraft a lot. It's why I have it taking second in the final ahead of an LFF'd OOT. It was the original bandwagoned game, so after L-Block and Snake, I figure it's an upset worth taking. As for FFVIII, it'd probably beat Starcraft 1v1 if it met it early enough in the contest, but not if SC has already started to build a bandwagon. I have FFIX advancing in round 1 though, so it's a moot point for my bracket.
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Hobbes: What's the point of attaching a number to everything you do?
Calvin: If your numbers go up, it means you're having more fun.
Darren1986 | Posted 4/2/2009 8:06:07 AM | message detail
Why do you expect it to have a bandwagon in the first match?

What I also do hate though is that, depending on whether or not you have Half-Life or FFIX advancing depends on whether you have FF8 or Starcraft advancing.

God this bracket is a pain.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
red sox 777 | Posted 4/2/2009 8:09:22 AM | message detail
I don't expect it to have a bandwagon in the first match. It doesn't need that to beat FFVIII though- FFIX being there will accomplish that. Even if it isn't, the format should still help Starcraft, probably enough to take second with rallying.
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Hobbes: What's the point of attaching a number to everything you do?
Calvin: If your numbers go up, it means you're having more fun.
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/2/2009 8:47:29 AM | message detail
Fei looked alright last year, but that was due a LOT to the competition - two/three way Nintendo SFF and a heaping helping of Sore Thumb Factor is pretty much the best way you can look while you go out. Xenogears might have been able to make a wave or two had it been in a different position, but with the way it got dismantled by FF7 back in 2k4 I would hesitate to expect it to stand up to FF8.

I have to agree here. In fact, the same thing happened with Vergil in 2007 (stuck in a match with three Nintendo options, thus standing out).
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/2/2009 9:10:25 AM | message detail
If you think Brawl and Galaxy are up in the air then COD4 shouldn't be considered since Galaxy freaking smashed the hell out of it and Brawl almost lost to MGS4 in their respective GotY polls

In this year's GotY, all 3 games are close to each other in strength. Certainly a first in the history of the GotY. Usually, one game ends up smashing all the other ones pretty badly (which RE4, TP, and Galaxy did). If either Fallout 3 or MGS4 got replaced with a weaker game like Halo 3 and assuming Halo 3's strength today was almost equal to what it was in 2007, then Brawl should be able to break 40% there, putting it closer to what Galaxy got back in the 2007 GotY.

MGS4 in the GOTY poll was series voting as well. Tell me how in the hell does MGS4 do so well when majority of the people here don't even OWN a PS3? Hmm, fishy.

Franchise voting. Most people who have played an earlier MGS game would have voted for MGS4, even if they haven't played it yet.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/2/2009 9:12:07 AM | message detail
Franchise voting. Most people who have played an earlier MGS game would have voted for MGS4, even if they haven't played it yet.

Or it could be that Super Smash Bros. was overrated in the Series Contest while Metal Gear was underrated.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/2/2009 9:19:34 AM | message detail
Yeah, however I'm still not sure where those 3 games land. Who knows how MGS4 compares to MGS2.

Who knows where MGS2 is even today. All I know, though, is that those games are probably pretty strong.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/2/2009 9:50:24 AM | message detail
You know, there's something that's been bugging me about that 128 division.

.. Why the heck is Soul Calibur so much bigger than the biggest Street Fighter? It kinda.. puzzles me. Even taking in the obviously inflated rankings, it takes stuff like KH, Halo, and Starcraft with it. Could all those games have possibly been THAT low back then?

Or am I just looking at this wrong?
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/2/2009 9:50:45 AM | message detail
Or heck, maybe the problem is more on Super Mario RPG possibly being SFF'd, but after seeing Geno I really doubt that.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/2/2009 10:23:53 AM | message detail
hey guys lets underestimate chrono trigger since a port did so badly just cuz an expansion of wow did badly
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/2/2009 11:11:28 AM | message detail
Super Mario RPG being SFF'd makes a lot of sense- why wouldn't CT SFF it? We can't know how badly, if at all, it was SFF'd, but there's a lot of room there- I'd call SMW SMRPG's ceiling (in 2004).
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Hobbes: What's the point of attaching a number to everything you do?
Calvin: If your numbers go up, it means you're having more fun.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/2/2009 11:12:01 AM | message detail
SMRPG has legit strength which is why SF2 is stronger then we think.
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Calintares | Posted 4/2/2009 11:18:09 AM | message detail
Have anyone taken a look at what the trends is in the different continets?

I am doing it right now. Using the data from the 2008 Contests. Categorizing what companies/series does well where.

Have anyone else done this before?
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Ours is not to reason why, ours is but to do and die.