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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 661

ZFS | Posted 4/1/2009 9:14:19 PM | message detail
I wanted to go with Galaxy at first (more critically acclaimed, comparable sales, far less backlash),

These cover the reasons I'm going for Galaxy, minus a couple of bigger ones. The first being that I think the Mario series carries with it far more weight than Smash Bros. -- it's one of the only three series who I think get huge franchise voting -- and the other that I don't see Galaxy/MGS4 being all that debatable of match. But maybe I'm off here, Brawl/Galaxy is a tough one.

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yoshifan823 | Posted 4/1/2009 9:18:09 PM | message detail
I have it because I have a theory involving the maturation of the GameFAQs audience, the inherent classicality of the game, and good memories. That's also why I have SMB winning the whole damn thing, but I know I'm wrong about that. I just believe that's how it should go.

Also, there wasn't a huge outburst or unkind comparison towards Galaxy upon release, or even now.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/1/2009 9:20:08 PM | message detail
The only reason Smash Bros. did so well against Mario in 2006 was because of Brawl hype. That Brawl hype is gone now. It's now "Brawl stunk."

Personally, I can't fathom how the Wii got so destroyed in that system poll after the hype Brawl created for itself. Look at all the hype polls that feature Brawl and tell me that's not the reason most people wanted a Wii.

The only thing I can come up with is that Brawl was just a plain disappointment and is a sign of the Wii's lack of good games. I don't really need to expect Galaxy to be as good as it was when Wii hype was high, because I know it at least didn't get backlash. It was really well-received.

Meanwhile Brawl causes the Wii to go even below PS3.

Of course there's a possibility that Brawl did not cause it and the Wii did it on itself, but.. Brawl was the most hyped game .. well, ever.. I can't see it not being the cause.

Even considering this, I still consider it a coin flip because Smash is just that scary anyway and Galaxy did seem to have lost some steam since then, but I don't think a well-received console Mario game.. no matter how much steam it could have possibly lost, should be underestimated.
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Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/1/2009 9:41:42 PM | message detail
It's not Brawl that screwed Nintendo, it's **** like Wii **** and Wii Music. People seem more interested in making themselves look like morons in their living rooms than enjoying video games.

But I digress.

People say Brawl had "backlash", but I think that's way overblown since it's basically the competitive "serious business" Smash community complaining because the game took a step in the right direction.

Also, 90% of the Brawl hype was due to Snake. People were excited to see what other third parties would make the game, so it stands to reason that the hype died down after the game came out and the roster was finalized. Brawl is still as strong (if not stronger) than Melee and is probably the only Wii game I'd expect to have any semblance of strength.

And once again, people mention the GotY polls, forgetting 2 very key factors in the difference between Brawl and Galaxy.

1) Brawl was released much earlier in the year, as opposed to Fallout 3 and MGS4 which released really close to the end of the year. Galaxy was the most recent game in it's poll so it makes sense that it performs better
2) The Galaxy poll took place when Nintendo could do no wrong. They had a great year of releases, and Brawl/Mario Kart to look forward to. The Brawl poll took place when people started realizing that Nintendo basically abandoned the traditional gaming market in favour of old women and 3 year olds. There are no Wii releases in the forseeable future, and it reflects in the system polls where both the 360 and PS3 have been making huge ground on the Wii.

Looks like the whole "Wii is a gimmick" thing actually ran true, and it's hilarious to see the people that couldn't shut up about how "awesome" the Wii was lose their faith in Nintendo.

But once again I digress.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/1/2009 9:46:39 PM | message detail
That first round match with WoW is going to be a bracket breaker for alot of people... WoW is such a wildcard in what it can do. Basically, if WoW gets out of that first round match, I believe its prospects for going far are high. But it can lose there, too. But if you have it going out in first round and it gets out of it, your bracket might be shot cuz it has potential to make the elite 8. Same with people that have it going far though.. if it bombs and loses in first round, their brackets are done
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yoshifan823 | Posted 4/1/2009 9:51:22 PM | message detail
Turtle, you seem to have very strong opinions about the Wii. I'd love to argue them with you, but this doesn't seem to be the venue for it. Make a new topic detailing that stuff, I'll see if I can counter it.
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Quis custodiet ipsos custodes? Guru winnah Explicit Content, that's quis.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/1/2009 9:51:34 PM | message detail
Another reason I'm pinning my hopes high for WoW though;

http://www.wowinsider.com/2009/03/25/blizzard-vs-relic-entertainment-in-the-escapists-march-mayhem/

WoW Insider is a big WoW fansite, and they're willing to post articles to get rallies going for online contests for WoW. If they're willing to do it for the Escapist best developer contest... why not here?
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/1/2009 9:52:52 PM | message detail
Not to mention I've already contacted one of the main editors at WoW Insider a couple days ago and just "Told him" about the contest. >.>;
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LordOfDabu | Posted 4/1/2009 9:58:56 PM | message detail
And look at how effective that rallying was. The poll had a grand total of 6k votes, and Blizzard still lost.
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Better to ask than to speculate
Justin_Crossing | Posted 4/1/2009 9:59:00 PM | message detail
So uh Albion any news on the April Fools addon store?
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/1/2009 10:00:27 PM | message detail

From: Justin_Crossing | #260
So uh Albion any news on the April Fools addon store?


wah?
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Justin_Crossing | Posted 4/1/2009 10:01:16 PM | message detail

From: MyWorldIsCrono | #261
wah?


http://www.wowinterface.com/forums/showthread.php?t=21585
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/1/2009 10:02:15 PM | message detail
About WoW Insider and its influence:

(1) Activision Blizzard vs (12) Relic
(1) Activision Blizzard 49.9% (3012)
(12) Relic 50.1% (3025)

That was after going into overtime and removing cheat votes. That really makes me question how big of an influence it is...

...but then again, its topic has over 241,000 views when most topics don't have 10,000 views. It also looks like you have to register to vote. So...I'll give it some lee-way, but I'm not impressed yet; I think the controversy of Blizzard/Relic caused a LOT of the views and posts.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/1/2009 10:08:07 PM | message detail
The thing that interests me the most with that is that another VERY VERY close match the day before; valve vs turbine, had 80k less views, when that one seems to be almost as controversial if not as controversial. I just gotta wonder how many of those extra views came from people on wow insider that just didnt bother wanting to sign up.
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Justin_Crossing | Posted 4/1/2009 10:11:39 PM | message detail
Also Albion it's obviously a joke because one of the addons is High Roller
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/1/2009 10:25:55 PM | message detail
1) Blizzard/Relic's match also had 3,000+ more posts than Turbine/Valve. That will naturally jack up the views too; I think I've heard you should expect a post for every ten views...so that would explain 30,000 of those extra views if that's right. The debate itself also probably caused extra views. Who knows after that; I'm sure you're partially right, but it's rather hard to say.

2) Turbine/Valve still had more votes than Blizzard/Relic.

3) Turbine won against Valve in its allotted time without cheating. Blizzard lost against Relic in over-time despite cheating.


There are differences worth noting.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
Lopen | Posted 4/1/2009 11:17:53 PM | message detail
So wait a guy who is taking WoW to the finals calls Galaxy > Brawl people stupid? Really?

Yeah, that's all I got. Seriously though what's up with the WoW support. Fodder cannot be rallied to wins.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/1/2009 11:20:47 PM | message detail

From: Lopen | Posted: 4/2/2009 2:17:53 AM | #261
Fodder cannot be rallied to wins.


http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2925
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/1/2009 11:25:29 PM | message detail
And I have WoW getting second place twice because it would be ****ing hilarious to see it knock off Halo 2 and San Andreas consecutively. I agree WoW is being a overrated, but it wouldn't take much to knock off those two games.
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Justin_Crossing | Posted 4/1/2009 11:30:38 PM | message detail
Btw everybody

MSG4 > LBP

Not Portal
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Lopen | Posted 4/1/2009 11:32:24 PM | message detail
Uhhh L-Block was never fodder even before the rallies. Thing held tough with Kirby in the first round. Kirby's no Link but if L-Block's base strength was way lower it wouldn't even think of getting at all close to Link.

Halo 2 and MGS3 should eliminate it in R1. Frankly I wouldn't be surprised if it had trouble beating Okami.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/1/2009 11:35:28 PM | message detail
Lopen, you don't have to worry. World of Warcraft isn't a joke entry; you don't have to say such things!
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Lopen | Posted 4/1/2009 11:37:23 PM | message detail
I don't hate WoW. This is not bias. These are just facts my man.

Assuming that's what you were getting at.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/1/2009 11:38:31 PM | message detail
Do you think WoW is the strongest game in the Warcraft series?
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Lopen | Posted 4/1/2009 11:41:06 PM | message detail
Not a chance. I'd take Warcraft 3 over it with some ease. I'd consider Warcraft 2 also but would probably hesitantly go WoW there. I think the RTS's presence is underrated around here-- that's why it beat GTA. Not a game with a 20% playrate.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/1/2009 11:43:35 PM | message detail
It's a 35% playrate.
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/1/2009 11:43:51 PM | message detail
I've thought about this for a long time about WoW but never really wanted to ask until now: do you think WoW's performances in recent GotY-polls deceptively under-rate it? I know we've seen ports of games do far worse here than the original releases (LoZ:LttP and MGS2/3 come to mind). Do you think expansions are similar? If that's the case, WoW would be significantly stronger than what we've seen in recent years. People are probably becoming less and less inclined to consider it GotY-material when it makes it into every GotY-poll the past few years.

If that happens, I'll bite the bullet; I'm not changing my bracket because of second-guessing at this point. Still, how do you guys feel about WoW:TBC and WoW:WotLK significantly under-rating WoW?
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Prototype
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Lopen | Posted 4/1/2009 11:44:09 PM | message detail
I mean. The thing about WoW... logic says it can be popular, it certainly has the playerbase. But I just don't see where it gets votes based on the WoW playership polls. It can rally its heart out but if it's capping at like 15% from GameFAQs faithful it's not going to go anywhere.
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Lopen | Posted 4/1/2009 11:47:20 PM | message detail
35% playrate is still trash. Think about it this way: Without rallying, the game's ceiling is what it needs to take first in any given match. And given the enthusiasm (or lack thereof) in the responses that comprise that 35%, you'd be a fool to expect it to get even 20% without rallying against games worth their salt.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/1/2009 11:49:46 PM | message detail
Guess I'm a fool, because I think it has a shot!
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Lopen | Posted 4/1/2009 11:50:13 PM | message detail
As for those GotY polls-- I never really even considered them to mean much. It'd be one thing if they were crushing the polls... but since they're not, "it's an expansion" is a valid excuse in my books. It's really just the total playrate that has me thinking WoW doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of doing anything.
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ZFS | Posted 4/1/2009 11:51:07 PM | message detail
Agreein' with Lopen here on WoW.

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WarThaHedgehog | Posted 4/1/2009 11:51:08 PM | message detail
If we really want to take GotY polls into account, through 2004 Halo 2 beats WoW without breaking a sweat! >_>;
Lopen | Posted 4/1/2009 11:52:54 PM | message detail
That is especially impressive considering the site used to hate Halo...!

Watch out world Halo 2 is coming.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/2/2009 12:09:49 AM | message detail
WoW's active userbase outnumbers Final Fantasy 7 sales. High ceiling there, Lopes <_<
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ZFS | Posted 4/2/2009 12:11:52 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3328

'whoops'

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doth thou desire the power
whatev | Posted 4/2/2009 12:13:04 AM | message detail
Hmm, it seems like AVG doesn't want me to go to SC2k4.com. I wonder why. Oh well, the only things of value there that aren't on the new site were the old stat topics, and I can get them from NGamer's site.

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jonthomson | Posted 4/2/2009 12:15:34 AM | message detail
people aren't thinking enough about how easy this format makes it for starcraft to go really deep
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Super Metroid's Path To Glory: R1 vs. Sonic 3, Gunstar Heroes, Super Mario Kart
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/2/2009 12:17:49 AM | message detail
You know, I bet Starcraft's player rate is pretty low as well! At least PRETEND WoW has a non-negligible shot. There'll be no more perfect brackets by day ten, so for anyone to talk with such certainty and bravado when we're all in for a spanking is kind of silly.
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/2/2009 12:18:16 AM | message detail
If I didn't have Starcraft/Diablo 2 meet up, I may have taken one of them to reach the final match. As is though...can't do it.

I will say this though: I will be furious if SB doesn't do something to ensure us cheating isn't allowed if the Blizzard games (or, really, any game) start doing some real fishy stuff.
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Prototype
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/2/2009 12:19:06 AM | message detail
The problem with Starcraft is the second round split against Half-Life - a game that won't just lay down and surrender all its support. Of course, if you don't have Half-Life there, then I guess the sky's the limit.
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ZFS | Posted 4/2/2009 12:22:34 AM | message detail
WoW's got a shot at moving on for a round, maybe two, but I've never believed it's because of its strength. The only reason to expect it to do anything is because of rallying, which isn't a terrible reason to go with it. But everything we've got points to WoW not being worth much of anything.

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jonthomson | Posted 4/2/2009 12:24:35 AM | message detail
i have wow getting to where it meets resi 4, mgs3 and twilight princess. i can't see how it gets through that at all. whereas i have starcraft coming second in the whole contest
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Jon Thomson - 1:10 pure 1:43 100% - HKP: 179
Super Metroid's Path To Glory: R1 vs. Sonic 3, Gunstar Heroes, Super Mario Kart
HaRRicH | Posted 4/2/2009 12:26:09 AM | message detail
I'm not scared of Half-Life messing up Starcraft; between Starcraft >= LoZ:WW > MP > HL in 2004, Starcraft being the top PC game in the Top 100 List, and them only sharing consoles (and everybody has a PC here, pretty much, though I know it's unfair to say that)...I don't think it'll be a big problem. FF8 will stand out more than Starcraft, to be fair, but I don't think that kind of factor will really matter in that match-up.
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Prototype
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ZFS | Posted 4/2/2009 12:30:01 AM | message detail
FFVIII's one I've been thinking about for a while. It's risky, and kinda unlikely, but that could make it all the way to the quarterfinals if things fall into place for it -- FFIX and FFT not being in round 2 and 3, specifically. FFVIII vs. MGS might seem like it goes to Metal Gear, but I'd expect most of the bigger FF games to give it problems. Don't think I'll take it, but I wouldn't be surprised if it happened!

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doth thou desire the power
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/2/2009 12:32:53 AM | message detail
Half-Life has had some decent room for growth since the olden days, though, and I don't think it's unreasonable to think Starcraft may have slightly declined (or at least stagnated) in popularity. All Half-Life needs to do is hinder the bigger PC game just enough for a game that has been more screwed by multi-poll options than any other to get by. I think Half-Life can hold enough of its own fanbase, and I think FFVIII, which is actually one spot ahead of Starcraft in the Top 100 (!!), has the inherent strength to capitalize.

And honestly, if I had to pick just one bracket dark horse, it would be FFVIII. It missed the games contest and is never in a poll without FFVII there to steal 8 million percent of its support. I still might roll the dice and take it over MGS.
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jonthomson | Posted 4/2/2009 12:40:14 AM | message detail
All Half-Life needs to do is hinder the bigger PC game just enough for a game that has been more screwed by multi-poll options than any other to get by.

this of course assumes that half-life beats out ff9. while i think it does, and that ff name recognition won't be enough in this case, if it doesn't then, ff8 is screwed.

it'll have been stated many times, but this is a format where something only needs to rally to 30% of the vote to advance. starcraft has done it before to 50%. and i don't think the increase voting numbers make a difference. to get through with 150k total votes you only need about 45k to be sure and starcraft easily put up that much against superior opposition than what it will face in round 2
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Jon Thomson - 1:10 pure 1:43 100% - HKP: 179
Super Metroid's Path To Glory: R1 vs. Sonic 3, Gunstar Heroes, Super Mario Kart
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/2/2009 12:40:16 AM | message detail
FFVIII's one I've been thinking about for a while. It's risky, and kinda unlikely, but that could make it all the way to the quarterfinals if things fall into place for it

I agree, but hell, why not the finals? FFVIII has always stayed pretty close behind X in those "favorite FF" polls, and that's despite VII and IX both there to presumably hurt it a lot more. We really have no idea how the two games will fare against each other on even ground.
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ZFS | Posted 4/2/2009 12:40:23 AM | message detail
Yeah, that's always the problem with those FF polls -- FFVII siphons away about half the votes. It's probably behind FFX and FFVI as far as strength goes, but how far is anybody's guess. There's some real reason to doubt it, though. We've never seen any of its characters make the contest, despite multiple rallies for 'em, and Squall is more KH made than he is FFVIII. The MyGames scores aren't too hot either.

Killer upset pick, though. I've been tempted for a while. The only problem is it has to have a lot of stuff goes its way.

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doth thou desire the power
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/2/2009 12:45:41 AM | message detail
Yeah, Half-Life needs to do its share to get the ball rolling. Don't flub this one up, Gordon!

I will say, though, that I can't think of a more board-shattering upset than FFVIII > MGS and FFX. Heck, I don't think any of us will be too surprised if Starcraft or WoW make a run, because we've come to expect that in this format. A FFVIII run, especially against its competition, would be way bigger.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!